Enhanced Land Use Planning in the Philippines. Paving the way towards achieving … · 2019. 6....
Transcript of Enhanced Land Use Planning in the Philippines. Paving the way towards achieving … · 2019. 6....
Enhanced Land Use Planning in the Philippines. Paving the way towards achieving the SDGs? LANDac Conference| June, 29 - 30th 2017
Dr. Lena Hohfeld
Evaluator
Independent evaluation institute
mandated by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development „BMZ“
Strategic and complex evaluations of German development cooperation
Founded in November 2012
60+ staff
2
DEval – German Institute for Development Evaluation
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Evaluation of Land Use Planning
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Title: Impact, diffusion and scaling-up of a comprehensive land use planning approach in the Philippines
Evaluation of an approach by Philippine German cooperation, managed by GIZ
Philippine agencies involved: HLURB, NEDA, DILG, NCI and others
Stakeholders in Germany and Philippines were consulted in “reference groups” during the evaluation to ensure utility of results.
Quasi-experimental impact evaluation based on survey data on municipal, village and household level
Mixed methods approach
At the moment, we are preparing FIRST and PRELIMINARY RESULTS!
Land Use Planning Impact Evaluation: SIMPLE intervention
Land use planning in the Philippines before the intervention: multiple policies, different authorities, overlapping mandates
Sustainable Integrated Management and Planning for Local Government Ecosystems (SIMPLE)
Duration: 2006 – 2015 Regional scope: Visayas Region, Philippines Comprehensive land use planning and management
Integrating all ecosystems from ridge to reef Integrating all types of land, public, private and ancestral
Participatory land use planning and management Bottom-up from barangay to municipality Including stakeholders into planning process
SIMPLE consists of: descriptions of processes and instruments for the management
of land use Training components / write workshops / GIS support and
trainings
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GIZ supported Philippine HLURB to reform their national land use planning process.
Comprehensive Land Use Plan Guidebook 2013-2014
Officially released Nov 2015
include their entire administrative territory
ridge-to-reef,
public, private and ancestral lands
stresses importance of risks due to climate change and natural disasters
planning processes at village level not explicitly included
promotes a bottom-up approach of integrating Barangay (village) Development Plans (BDP) in the CLUP
also allows for a top-down approach if no BDPs are available
consultation of stakeholders is advised
National scaling-up
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Enhanced land use planning embedded in the administrative planning framework
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Quasi-experimental design: What would have happened without intervention?
Quantitative survey of 3000 households, 300 village headmen, 100 municipal planning officers.
Panel data 2012 & 2016
Treatment & matched control groups
Propensity score matching with lagged outcome variable
Quasi-Experimental Design
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Methodological Challenges
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Typhoon Yolanda 2013 control for damages using GIS Data, include this information in the matching.
Baseline has been collected after the SIMPLE program had started.
only problematic, if no long-term effects can be found
Start year known Use subsample of municipalities who
received SIMPLE after 2012
SIMPLE was a moving target : treatment varied
Account for treatment intensity (number of trainings)
SIMPLE was not the only project in the area
Include other projects in the matching
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Observation area – endline survey 2012/2013. Treatment (yellow), Control (blue), “Switchers” (shaded)
Theory of change (simplified)
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Land Use Planning
Participatory and
comprehensive land use planning Local governance
Welfare
Sustainable use of resources
Co
ntrib
utio
n to
sustain
able
deve
lop
me
nt go
als (SDG
s)
Disaster risk management
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FIRST & PRELIMINARY RESULTS related to SDGs (part 1)
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No impact on poverty (measured with monetary and non-monetary indicators) found.
Municipalities with treatment take more disaster risk measures, in particular when they received many trainings. Households in municipalities with treatment after 2012 take more disaster risk measures and spend more on those.
Village headmen in treatment areas are more aware of risks related to climate change. This does not hold for municipal planning officers.
Governance
Welfare
Resources
SDG
s
Risk Planning
Governance
Welfare
Resources
SDG
s
Risk Planning
Governance
Welfare
Resources
SDG
s
Risk Planning
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No impacts on existence of coastal protected areas, marine sanctuaries, mangrove reforestation found.
More protected areas and conservation project reported in treatment municipalities, but no effect on tree cover. No impact on land conversion as reported by households. No impact on awareness of households regarding protected areas or conservation projects. Municipal planning officer reported increased participation of villages and households. This result cannot be confirmed on household level: no impacts are found here.
Governance
Welfare
Resources
SDG
s
Risk Planning
Governance
Welfare
Resources
SDG
s
Risk Planning
Governance
Welfare
Resources
SDG
s
Risk Planning
FIRST & PRELIMINARY RESULTS related to SDGs (part 2)
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- For most impact fields positive results for some outcome variables, but results in part inconclusive
- Impacts for many SDG-related outcome variables stronger on municipal level, seems not to „trickle down“ to household level, even when looking at politically more active households.
- Treatment intensity (higher number of trainings) seems to matter.
Report with final results will be published beginning of 2018
Observations across all impact fields
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Relationship of local and national land use planning efforts
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Barangay Development Plan
Participative and Comprehensive Land
Use Planning (PCLUP) on municipal level
GIZ/EnRD “SIMPLE” Approach
(in Region 6 und 8)
HLURB eCLUP guidelines (countrywide)
Barangay Development Plan
Participative and Comprehensive Land
Use Planning (PCLUP) on municipal level
∞
Typhoon Yolanda - November 2013
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• 6,343 confirmed casualties *
• 1,058 people missing *
• Followed by remendous international aid and donor support
Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)
* National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) 2013 –
Final Report Effects of Typhoon "Yolanda" (Haiyan)
Combination of geographic data with quantitative data analysis
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Evaluation / Sampling Area Municipalities with exposure to SIMPLE are shaded in yellow/orange, control municipalities without intervention are shaded in purple.
Multi-Hazard Maps (Earthquake, Flood, Tsunami, Storm surge, Landslide, Ground rupture)
Typhoon Haiyan intensity and damage maps
Methods and research design
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