Engineering the future of communications - 2009

Key Communications Issues for Tomorrow

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Engineering the future of communications 1

The Institution of Engineering & TechnologyThe Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET)

is a global organisation, with over 150,000 members

representing a vast range of engineering and

technology fields. Our primary aims are to provide a

global knowledge network promoting the exchange

of ideas and enhance the positive role of science,

engineering and technology between business,

academia, governments and professional bodies; and

to address challenges that face society in the future.

The IET is registered as a Charity in England & Wales

(no 211014) and Scotland (no SC038698).

For more information please visit

http://www.theiet.org

The IET Communications Policy PanelThe IET Communications Policy Panel is tasked by

the Institution of Engineering and Technology with

proactively identifying policy issues applicable to the

communications sector and providing guidance to

the IET Board of Trustees, members, Government

and the public. It’s members are Chief Technologists

and their equivalents from across industry, academia

and public sector organisations.

The panel conducts most of its business

electronically but meets with selected guests a few

times a year at the IET in Savoy Place to review key

topics. The outcome of each of these meetings is a

short summary paper on a key topic - and these form

the basis for the annual meeting.

For more information please visit

http://www.theiet.org/policy/panels/index.cfm

Contents

Engineering the future of communications ...............2

Chairman’s Introduction ...........................................3

Convergence and Divergence ...................................4

Communicating sensors in every object ....................5

Green Communications ��������������������������������������������6

Where next for Digital Broadband? ............................7

Useful source material .............................................8

Notes ����������������������������������������������������������������������9

Engineering the future of communications 2

Engineering the future of communications

New ways of communicating have shaped our society and politics at least since the printing press, and never more so than in today’s emerging digital age. Indeed this effect is accelerating along with the pace of the technological development. This is not just broadband and mobile telephony but a whole new ‘connected’ approach to the world which will affect all our lives and have important implications for policy, and for how we function as a society.

I have invited you all here today to hear about and discuss the way the top experts in the engineering profession see things going. You will hear what they think are the vital issues and how they see the implications, and discuss with them the future directions for the key technologies.

It behoves us all to keep informed of these developments and I hope you will get as much from today as I expect to!

If all goes well we shall run an update meeting of this kind each year, and you can sign up online for the IET’s quarterly papers on emergent communications issues.

Lord Broers

Engineering the future of communications 3

Chairman’s Introduction

New developments in the means of communicating have been at the heart of our developing society since at least the printing press. In today’s digital era this effect is accelerating with the pace of the developing technology. Whilst broadband is important, there are other issues which will affect all our lives and have important implications for policy.

This is the first Annual Meeting of the IET’s Communications Sector Panel – composed of key top-level technical experts from the industry and academia. The meeting will offer the chance to hear descriptions of and to discuss four key issues in communications as identified and discussed by the Panel during the year. There will also be an opportunity to network with some of the most knowledgeable engineers in the communications field.

The meeting will be introduced by Lord Broers, after which there will be 7-minute presentations (with a back-up text summary) on specific topics:-

� Convergence and Divergence - Access from any place, anytime, anywhere Sir David Brown

� Communicating sensors in every object – rise of digital low-data-rate devices Naomi Climer

� Green Communications – energy issues in communication systems David Cleevely

� Where next for Digital Broadband? Will Stewart

Key panel members will address each of these issues, with a good period after each for some discussion. There will be then an opportunity for wide-ranging discussions on the significance and implications of these topics, and on how they will affect communications in the future.

Engineering the future of communications 4

Convergence and DivergenceAccess from any place, anytime, anywhere

The rising dominance of digital communication technology for the delivery of services is driving a worldwide trend to ‘convergence’. Convergence will involve using a single device for multiple services, for example one phone for the home, office and outdoors. But more significantly for

the industry it will also involve accessing each service from multiple devices – for example watching TV at home, on a laptop or on a mobile. We note the popularity of the iPlayer and equivalents as showing the potential.

Most links will be point-point fibre-wireless, with the wireless providing the last drop to the user device, albeit perhaps of only a metre or two and in some cases owned by the user (like WiFi for example). The ideal architecture for unknown future services is, however, unpredictable so design-for-adaptability is key.

Key issues � Convergence will be incompatible with the current ‘vertical’ structure of the content industry

in which content originators also control distribution, and will lead to an internet-style ‘horizontal’ business separation between the various “layers” such as content origination, publishing/broking, data transport and the supply of the receiving device and its software. So novel content or a novel service will not be tied to a particular decoder or physical platform, as is the case currently with Sky broadcasts, and a transport provider would normally support all devices.

� The money flows will need to be re-mapped onto the new industry structure in such a way as to create a satisfactory return for all parties whilst promoting competition. There are many opportunities as well as problems in this. It will require appropriate regulation aimed at creating a ‘level playing field’ and at defining a clear separation between the different layers with balanced regulation for both vertical services and horizontal layers.

� Although commonly seen as promoting equality in fact a converged broadband network may act in the same way as other improved infrastructure and tend to drive economic/social clustering & disparity as well as enhancing growth. It may also be incompatible with a realistic promise of universal (identical) service obligation. Governments need to take a view as to the possibly divisive impact of any developments and put in place appropriate balancing measures.

� The impact of convergence and the delayered industry structure on innovation in the creative industries will be a vitally important issue, both socially and economically, improving the user experience.

Engineering the future of communications 5

Communicating sensors in every objectRise of digital low-data-rate devices

BackgroundIn parallel with widespread public discussion of high-data-rate broadband systems there is a rapid

and vital rise in the number of comparatively low-connected-rate but ubiquitous, mostly wireless, systems that may play just as vital a role in our digital future. These range from RFID tags, smartcards and wireless controllers through networked sensor systems for health and environmental monitoring to extensive transport support systems (including road pricing).

Although individually of modest capacity these systems have the capacity to transform the communications environment,

and may represent a ‘long tail’ of digital future systems that collectively contribute a very significant sector of future communications. In practice these types of devices could potentially represent a new disruptive technology although at present lead applications are not apparent.

Key Concerns � Standards – Agreed standards are required to ensure a ‘common levels of politeness’ both in

terms of spectrum and interaction with other similar devices. Performance in a noisy spectral environment is also a key consideration

� Power efficiency and range. Clearly power is an important concern for many of these devices and developments in electronics are helping here; but considerations of peer-to-peer and other means of efficient networking via existing systems such as mobile networks may be very important. An outline of future trends would also be helpful. Near Field Communications (NFC) may be the starting point for the introduction of such devices.

� Cost – such systems will need to be cheap to buy, install and maintain. This means they have to meet a ‘Fit and forget’ model. Ideally some form of energy harvesting should be utilised in order to minimise maintenance, i.e. no battery changing / access problems etc.

� Capacity – should such systems be intrinsically of low capacity or be capable of ‘burst’ performance at much higher rates? Will they need ‘priority’ access to communications in some circumstances? Will collective spectrum demands for such systems be an issue?

� Security – these systems have the potential to pass information that may be collectively sensitive, both at an individual and a national level. On the other hand fairly open access is vital to their usefulness in some cases, so some compromise will be necessary.

Engineering the future of communications 6

Green Communicationsenergy issues in communication systems

BackgroundAll forms of electronic communications are rapidly growing, measured by both transaction frequency and by the total volume of data transferred (& of course by typical transfer range).

Communications systems contribute several percent of overall Carbon emissions and there clearly exists scope to reduce this, but communications also has the capability to contribute very significantly to the reduction of Carbon emissions due to other activities, from improved transport and energy management to substitution in trade (think newspapers and CDs) and travel activity.

However the ever-increasing pervasiveness and use of communications and its ever higher rates must be a cause for some concern. We note that the capital energy costs of much consumer communications equipment and the energy costs of installation (for example of buried cable) represent a significant fraction, even in some cases a dominant

one, of the telecommunications ‘footprint’.

Key Issues � Standard interfaces for awareness systems. In order for any sort of optimization to occur it is

essential that different components in any global communications system should exchange current information on their energy capital cost and consumption in a universally-comparable and understandable form. It is not clear how great the demand for this is (as with smart metering) but the availability of the information is a prerequisite for action.

� Techniques need to be developed that allow systems to make use of the above information to inform choices within the network that will require collation of the implied energy consumption in many different places. A possible scenario is that a user terminal will automatically implement a policy pre-determined in outline by the user.

� It is particularly important that the overall energy impact, that is including the external effect of communications usage, be properly represented, particularly when considering choices to be made by the rapidly-expanding currently less developed economies. We note that communications systems are likely to be among the first advanced networks to be widely deployed in these economies, and are as such particularly influential.

Background - Ofcom study http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/research/technology-research/appendix.pdf

Engineering the future of communications 7

Where next for Digital Broadband?

BackgroundThere is of course widespread public discussion of broadband systems particularly in the context

of the imminent ‘Digital Britain’ report. This will among other things focus on the provision of a universal broadband service using a mix of technologies at a rate of 2MBit/s.

The Digital Britain report discusses the immediate way forward – but we need to start planning for the priorities in the ‘beyond Digital Britain’ era – assuming an initial universal service what is the priority for the next generation of systems?

Key Topics � True Mobility. The target here is to provide something that the average user probably sees

as a no-brainer; an environment in which all their various communicating devices and environments share important information on contacts, calls, e-mails, documents and ownership rights (eg of music and video). In practice of course this is technically and organisationally quite tricky – but this should be invisible to the user.

� CIA (Continuity Integrity Availability) As communicating devices become more pervasive and essential in all our lives, even monitoring our health, the issue of ‘reliability’, meaning both trustworthiness and continuous always-on availability, becomes much more vital. The network design and technology needs to evolve to reflect this.

� Viable business models. Although the economic value enabled by the communications infrastructure is huge (8% of GDP according to the Digital Britain report) it can still be difficult for the base-level infrastructure operator to set up a viable business model. Attention to this in regulation may help.

� Demand Stimulation. Although the technology will continue to improve and deliver a better experience there are still many users who are either still unconvinced or are failing to use the full system capability. This does limit national wealth creation and may be as significant an obstacle as the technology.

Engineering the future of communications 8

Useful source materialfrom the IET Digital Britain response for reference

Engineering the future of communications 9

Notes

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