Engineering Economics Group (EEG) Capabilities · PDF file2 Presentation Contents Introduction...
Transcript of Engineering Economics Group (EEG) Capabilities · PDF file2 Presentation Contents Introduction...
1
Engineering Economics Group (EEG) Capabilities Summary
September 2015 | Atlanta, GA
2
Presentation Contents
Introduction to SpaceWorks Engineering Economics Group (EEG) Capabilities
Life Cycle Analysis
Cost Assessment
Operations Assessment
Reliability Assessment
Systems Engineering
Commercial Assessment and Space Market Analysis
Relevant Experience Exploration Cost Analysis Support
Heavy Lift Propulsion Technology (HLPT) Studies
Near-Earth Object Study
Google Lunar X-Prize with Astrobotic, Inc.
Lunar In-situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Propellant Services Market
4
EEG Capabilities and Skills
5
EEG Skills and Capabilities
Reliability Operations
Systems Engineering
Life Cycle Cost
Non-Recurring
Cost
Market Analysis
Commercial Assessment
Engineering Economics
Group
SpaceWorks’ Engineering Economics Group (EEG) provides integrated and quantitative analysis of life cycle disciplines that complements advanced space
systems design and development activities
6
Life Cycle Analysis: Cost Assessment
NASA/Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM) SEER for Hardware SEER for Software TRANSCOST v8.0 NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM) Stack’em Remix ICCCoM FGOA Descartes-Origins
Cost Assessment Capabilities
Tools, Processes, and Databases Industry Standard Internally Developed
� Development, acquisition, operations, and overall life cycle cost assessment for all elements of a concept or architecture (launch hardware, test articles, facilities, ground equipment, etc.)
� Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of vehicle design selections and cost tool settings
� Programmatic guidance backed by quantitative analysis can also be provided, including realistic schedule recommendations, cost phasing, and reserve budgeting strategies
7
Life Cycle Analysis: Operations Assessment
COMET-OCM LLEGO RMAT AATe Arena (for DES) Descartes-Hyperport
Industry Standard Internally Developed
� Assessment of operability and affordability of expendable, reusable, solid or liquid vehicles using industry standard tools and an internally developed model
� Quantification of turn-around time, labor head count, recurring cost, and required resources for operational scenarios of interest.
� Optimization of the activity flow, people, materials, and other resources
Operations Assessment Capabilities
Tools, Processes, and Databases
8
Life Cycle Analysis: Reliability Assessment
Relex Itemsoft Toolkit Reliability databases and sources GT-Safety II Excel-based FTA and ESN tools
Industry Standard Internally Developed
� Quantitative assessment of key reliability and safety Figures of Merit such as Loss of Vehicle, Loss of Crew, and Loss of Mission
� Probabilistic analysis to estimate certainly levels and reliability margins
� Integration of results with life cycle cost analysis to calculate expected failures and cost of failure metrics
Example Study: Mars Exploration Costs
Reliability Assessment Capabilities
Tools, Processes, and Databases
Example Study: Lunar Exploration Architecture Reliability
Example Study: Rocket-Based Combined Cycle Vehicle Reliability
9
Systems Engineering
RiskNav MagicDraw INCOSE Defense Acquisition University DODI 5000.02 NASA Systems Engineering Handbook
Standard Tools Standard Sources
� Document and track program risks on 5x5 � Serving as risk manager for program risks � Providing model-based systems engineering
expertise � Analyzing and managing system requirements
with traceability
Example: RBS Pathfinder Systems Engineering Plan
Example: Risk Management Process
Tools, Processes, and Databases
Systems Engineering Capabilities
10
Commercial Assessment: Business Case Analysis
� Evaluation of a proposed concept/architecture from a business perspective and determination of criteria for financial success
� Determine Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Return on Investment (ROI), cash flows, etc.
� Development and analysis of economic trade studies such as different demand scenarios, market capture analysis, financing options, etc.
Business Case Analysis
Tools, Processes, and Databases
-$175 M
-$150 M
-$125 M
-$100 M
-$75 M
-$50 M
-$25 M
$0 M
$25 M
$50 M
$75 M
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
Net P
rese
nt V
alue
(NPV
) by Y
ear
Firm A
Firm B
Cost and Business Analysis Module 2 (CABAM-2) Nodal Economic Space Commerce (NESC) Tool Space Solar Power Abbreviated Transportation Economics (SSPATE) Custom Financial Analysis and Pro-Forma Financial Projections
Internally Developed
11
Commercial Assessment: Macro-economic Studies
� General macro-level economic analysis and quantification of economic externalities
� Market size and growth estimation, basic industry research, and economic impact assessment
� Example forecasting and analysis of future markets including: • LEO payload delivery • ISS commercial crew/cargo services • Propellant depots with commercial resupply
Macro-Economic Studies Capabilities
Tools, Processes, and Databases Orbital Satellite Database (SEI-OSD) Nano/Micro Satellite Projection Tool Manifesting and Payload Simulation (MAPS) Tool Orbital Satellite Forecasting Tool Custom Market Forecasts Launch Market for Normal People (LMNoP) SpaceWorks Sponsorship Calculator
Internally Developed
12
EEG Recent Experiences and Applications
13
Experience: Exploration Cost Analysis Support
� In support of NASA’s Strategic Cost Analysis Team, SpaceWorks provided DDT&E, TFU, acquisition, and LCC estimates for various DRAs and potential exploration paths (Moon, Mars, asteroids, etc.) • Notable elements included surface habitats, landers, and aeroshells • Lunar campaign assessments utilizing international partners (e.g. ESA, JAXA, etc.)
� Developed Cost Research and Analogy Library (CoRAL), a database containing cost, performance, and programmatic elements for various space systems
Lead: Dominic DePasquale, Elizabeth Buchen Customer: NASA LaRC / NASA HQ / NASA JSC Duration: 3 years Date: 2008-2011
14
Experience: Heavy Lift Propulsion Technology (HLPT) Studies
� SpaceWorks supported both the Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) and Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC) teams during NASA’s HLPT studies.
� For PWR team, tasked to provide predictions for HLV development and recurring costs, reliability, ground operations, and facilities costs
� For OSC team, provided predictions for HLV development and recurring costs as well as facilities costs � HLV concepts ranged from two or three stage configurations, with liquid or solid boosters, and clean-sheet
designs vs. Shuttle-derived hardware vs. EELV-derived
Lead: John Bradford, Elizabeth Buchen Customer: PWR, OSC (for NASA MSFC) Duration: 5 months Date: 2010-2011
15
Experience: Near-Earth Object Study
� SpaceWorks supported an internal JPL study that investigated a 1-year human mission to a Near Earth Object (NEO)
� SpaceWorks provided the DDT&E cost, TFU cost and development/production durations for all architecture elements
� A mixed methodology of cost estimating using industry standard software (NAFCOM, SEER), analogous historical and concept study data, and expert-driven cost equations was used
� Notable architecture elements included a Cryogenic Boost Stage, Solar Electric Propulsion Stage, and a Xenon Fuel Module
Lead: Dominic DePasquale, Elizabeth Buchen Customer: JPL Duration: 1 month Date: 2010
16
Experience: Google Lunar X-Prize with Astrobotic, Inc.
� SpaceWorks assisted Astrobotic Technology, Inc. by analyzing and determining the commercial potential of future robotic missions to the Moon after an anticipated successful Google Lunar X PRIZE
� SpaceWorks provided an evaluation of both the development and acquisition costs of Astrobotic’s lander and rover
� Integrated financial projections were determined using SpaceWorks cost and revenue estimates
Lead: A.C. Charania, Dominic DePasquale Customer: Astrobotic Team (Carnegie Mellon) Duration: 3 months Date: 2009
17
Experience: Lunar In-situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Propellant Services Market
� SpaceWorks was selected by NASA to perform an economic analysis of a commercially operated lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) facility
� The Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) was used as the resource for all NASA Lunar exploration activities
� The economic analysis focused on three major case studies, differentiated by the location of propellant delivery: Lunar surface, Low Lunar Orbit (LLO), and Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO)
Lead: A.C. Charania, Dominic DePasquale Customer: NASA LaRC Duration: 3 months Date: 2007
1
SPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC. (SEI) | www.sei.aero | [email protected]
1040 Crown Pointe Parkway, Suite 950 | Atlanta, GA 30338 USA | +1.770.379.8000