Engine Expo 2008 · across test cycles; • Most sources differ in conversion rates Engine Expo...
Transcript of Engine Expo 2008 · across test cycles; • Most sources differ in conversion rates Engine Expo...
Engine Expo 2008
Light Vehicle Powertrains – Production and
Technology for Global Markets
Alex Woodrow
Knibb, Gormezano and Partners
Stuttgart, 6 May 2008
Contents
• Global Production Trends
• Drivers
– Emissions
– CO2
– Consumer Requirements
• Technology Roadmap
• Barriers
– Sulphur
• Developed vs Developing Markets
– North America
– Western Europe
– Japan
– BRICS
Engine Expo 2008
Global Sales and Production Trends
• Asia and Central and Eastern
Europe account for most growth
between 2006 and 2014
• Credit crunch, recession and
fuel prices have downward
impact on forecast
88
66
2006
0
Africa
13
Asia
0
Middle
East
14
E.
Europe
1
South
America
1
North
AmericaW.
Europe
2014
Total
Engine Expo 2008
Source: J. D. Power Automotive Forecasting
Global Light Vehicle Production (Millions 2006-2014)
Global Emissions
• Major driver for development over past 10
years
• Standards focused around US, European
and Japanese levels;
– US most stringent, with Japan and Europe
catching up;
– Varies between diesel and gasoline;
– Drives up fuel consumption and cost;
– Most gasoline will continue with three-way
catalyst (TWC), diesels with mix of DeNOx
catalyst, DPF and SCR on larger vehicles
Engine Expo 2008
Global Emissions Compliance
EPA Tier II -
2007-2009
EPA Tier II or
EU IV 2010
EU IV 2009
(Proconve)
EU V 2009
EU VI 2014
EU IV 2006 Diesel,
2008 Gasoline
EU IV 2007 Diesel
ULEV Gasoline 2006Japan 2009
Metro EU IV 2010
EU III 2010
(Bharat)
EU III 2005/08
EU IV 2007/10
EU III 2007
EU IV 2010
EPA
EU
VARIES
JAPAN
Engine Expo 2008*EPA Durability 190,000km, Euro V 100/160,000km,
(NB Some variation between diesel and gasoline legislation with phase in periods)
Production Cost Increments – Noxious
Emissions
Incremental costs to meet
emissions legislation
– Gasoline EU V vs EU
III $250
– Diesel EU V vs
Gasoline EU V $750
Source: KGP Global Light Vehicle Engine Production 2006 Engine Expo 2008
Diesel
100
Euro III
Euro IV
Euro V
250
250
Gasoline
150
Global Emissions Compliance Shares
Engine Expo 2008
5%26%
27%
Japan 069%
Euro IV 28%
Euro III
Euro II
EPA Tier II
EPA Tier I
3%
EPA Tier I/Euro IV
2%
NB Shares are only approximations
Euro II is Euro II or less
38%
5%
Japan 09
7%
Euro VI
24%
Euro IV
Euro III
EPA Tier II/Euro V2%
EPA Tier II
24%
2007 2015
CO2 and Fuel Economy Standards
• Most markets that are
regulated have fuel
economy standards;
• Difficult to compare
across test cycles;
• Most sources differ in
conversion rates
Engine Expo 2008
Source: International Council on Clean Transportation 2007
CO2 Emissions from the new fleet
• Looking at the impact of CO2 km x sales and
distances travelled (Billions g);
• Assumes static distances travelled
Engine Expo 2008
40
66677891016
91
UKItalyOtherGermanyCanada
2007
JapanUS OthersBrazilFranceChina
30
655598810
35
86
UKItalyOtherGermanyCanada
2015
JapanUS OthersBrazilFranceChina
NB Shares are only approximations
Market Drivers
Mobility
Cost
Developed Markets
Fuel Economy
Image
Comfort
Purchase Price
Performance
Features
Reliability
Service Cost
Purchase Price
Fuel Economy
Features
Durability
Comfort
Performance
Reliability
Developing Markets
Ease of
Maintenance
Compliance
Engine Expo 2008
Comfort
Dieselisation
Engine Expo 2008
30.429.729.228.227.226.025.024.123.6
20152011 2012
Global
2009 2013 2014201020082007
60.261.262.262.662.461.861.159.958.3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015
W Europe
20132012 2014
11.4
9.7
8.3
6.8
5.54.6
3.83.43.1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015
NAFTA
20132012 2014
Diesel share of light vehicle sales (%)
• Diesel share likely to increase globally
• Forecast sensitive to diesel vs
gasoline differential and long-term fuel
prices
• Hybrids in comparison accounted for
0.5% of light vehicles globally in 2007
and 2% in the US
Fuel Prices
• Fuel price is a key driver
• Long term forecast uncertain –
other than upwards
• China only major market to
subsidise fuel prices
• Diesel share forecast sensitive
to diesel price, particularly in
North America, where a
significant gap has opened
– US gasoline $0.96, diesel $1.12
– Current prices UK gasoline
$2.2, diesel $2.4 per litre
Engine Expo 200868% of US voters polled said gas prices were there top concern.
0.59
0.07
1.49
1.33
0.61
1.38
1.73
0.69
0.53
0.16
1.56
1.48
0.69
1.55
1.63
0.63
France
Italy
Saudi Arabia
Normal’ price
USA
UK
Germany
China
November 2006 Fuel Prices ($ litres)Source: GTZ
G D
Alternative Fuels
• Likely to become more economically feasible as
fossil fuel prices increase;
• Need to move away from food-source based 1st
generation fuels to prevent increased food prices;
• Uncertainty over global requirements, particularly
in relation to EU Bio-Fuels mandate;
• Brazil and US are major markets for alternate
fuels;
• CNG adoption mixed – particularly attractive in
Middle East and adopted in India;
Engine Expo 2008
Emissions
2005 2010 2015 2020
Fuel Economy
Waste Heat
Recovery
AMTs Wet DCT
Dry DCT6AT RWD
6AT FWD7AT 8AT
Low friction lubricantReduced friction 5Cs
Weight reduced 5Cs
Thermal Efficiency
Gasoline 30%
Diesel 40%
Thermal Efficiency
Gasoline 40%
Diesel 45%
Thermal Efficiency
Gasoline 40%
Diesel 50%
Downsized TC (80ps
litre)
2 Cylinder Downsized
Engines (100ps litre)3
rd Gen CR DI Diesel
Spray Guided GDI
DeNOx Catalysts
SCR
IVT/EVT
HCCI
Synthetic Fuels
DeNOx Catalysts
Improved DPF
Japan FE target
EU 130g CO2
US Revised
CAFE
On-demand pumps
On-demand cooling
EGR
Internal EGR
Cooled EGR
VGTTwin TC
Variable Intake
Manifolds
Balance ShaftsActive Engine MountsDMF
In-wheel Motor
Camless EngineVariable timing and
lift
Sealed for life engine
Re-generative braking
Stop-start
Cylinder Deactivation
Full Hybrid
Atkinson Cycle
Miller Cycle
Plug-In Hybrids
Supercapacitor
hybrids
E85
B30
CNG
B10
E10
OBD
Low Cost DI Gasoline
Electric Ancilliary
Drive
Belt vs chain drive
In Cylinder Pressure
SensingExtended Service
Intervals
DPF
Lithium Ion Batteries
Increasing Useful
Life for emissions
AT – 190k km USA
Engine Blocks
Materials Al, Mg
Plastic intake
systems Plastic oil pan
Piezo Injection
Zeroshift
Future
Transmission
Technologies
Stepped
CVTs
2nd
Gen Bio-Fuels
Variable Compression
Ratio
Technology Roadmaps – Developed Markets
Engine Expo 2008
Technology Roadmaps – Developed Markets
Engine Expo 2008
Cost, Complexity, Performance
Increasing systems integration
Which or
these become
cost effective
for lowest cost
vehicles, and
when
?
Sulphur
15 & Below*
>500 - 2000
Conflicting/Missing Data
>2000 - 5000
>5,000 & Above
>15 - 50
>50 - 500
* Information in parts per million (ppm)
Sulphur levels are maximum allowable as of September 2007. Source: UNEP
Engine Expo 2008
North America
• Fuel economy currently a very
hot topic;
• Major market for hybrids;
• Considerable investment in
diesels;
• High automatic share;
• Increasing transplant share;
• Opportunity for downsizing with
GDI and TC;
• Low sulphur diesel introduced
for 2007 HD standards
• Switch back from trucks to cars
also required, along with other
measures – weight reduction
etc.
Engine Expo 2008
Average Displacement 3600cc
Diesel Production Share 5.5% in 2007
Automatic Share >90%
Fuel Economy Std CAFE proposed
25mpg combined by
2020 (24.8 in 2007)
Key Technologies DISI TC, Stop-start,
6AT, DCT
Emissions Standards Tier II
Average Power 240ps
Key Market Characteristics
*Based on production volumes
Western Europe
• High diesel share; reaching
saturation?
• Focus on CO2 reduction, not clear
on how fleet average will be applied;
• Uncertainty over bio-fuels directive;
• Shift to central European production
– vehicles, increasingly engines;
• Widespread taxation incentives
(disincentives) based on
displacement and fuel type;
• Slowly growing hybrid share;
• Rapid uptake of stop start
technology;
• Suitability of powertrain technology
for global markets?
• Focus on engine downsizing and
stop-start, with other vehicle
measures including weight reduction
Engine Expo 2008
Average Displacement 1865cc
Diesel share 51% in 2007
Automatic Share 20%
Fuel Economy Std 130g CO2 by 2012
Key Technologies DISI TC, Stop-start,
DCT
Emissions Standards Euro IV
Average Power 128ps
Key Market Characteristics
*Based on production volumes
Japan
• Most stringent fuel economy
target;
• Little diesel penetration;
• Hybrid’s appear too expensive;
• Significant penetration of
smaller (Kei) cars;
• High automatic share;
• FE target being tightened;
• Globalisation of manufacturing
and engine plants;
• Potential for stop start with
automatic?
• Next round of emissions
legislation in 2009;
• High export volume;
Engine Expo 2008
Average Displacement 1944cc
Diesel share 7% in 2007
Automatic Share 75%
Fuel Economy Std Weight based fuel
economy target for
2015
Key Technologies DI gasoline, stop-start
Emissions Standards Japanese standard
Average Power 136ps
Key Market Characteristics
*Based on production volumes
Brazil
• High share of multi-fuel
vehicles;
• Limited exports outside region
and no domestic manufacturers;
• Very low automatic share.
Engine Expo 2008
Average Displacement 1410cc
Diesel share 3.7% in 2007
Automatic Share <2%
Fuel Economy Std None
Key Technologies Multi-Fuel FIE
Emissions Standards Euro III
Average Power 90ps
Key Market Characteristics
*Based on production volumes
Russia
• Significant growth in sales
forecast;
• Large share of imported
vehicles, as domestic
manufacturers slow to respond
to products;
• Investment needed in modern
engines and transmissions;
• Low automatic share;
• Low diesel share;
• No fuel economy standards;
Engine Expo 2008
Average Displacement 1780cc
Diesel share 9.5% in 2007
Automatic Share <5%
Domestic Mfrs <50% of sales
Fuel Economy Std None
Key Technologies SMPI,TWC, CR DI
Emissions Standards Euro III
Average Power 94ps
Key Market Characteristics
*Based on production volumes
India
• High share of domestic
manufacturers
• Increasing JV share
• Low automatic
• Low cost market
• Increasing diesel share
• Low automatic share, increasing
Engine Expo 2008
Average Displacement 1450cc
Diesel share 9.5% in 2007
Automatic Share 10%
Fuel Economy Std None
Key Technologies SMPI,TWC, CR DI
Emissions Standards Euro II/III
Average Power 66ps
Key Market Characteristics
*Based on production volumes
China
• Massively increased production;
• Domestic and JV manufacturers
growing strongly;
• Investment in new engine
models required for many
manufacturers;
• Divergent needs of small car
market and mid-sized/premium
segments;
• Size based fuel economy
standard introduced;
• Increasing automatic share
• Low diesel share
Engine Expo 2008
Average Displacement 1875cc
Diesel share 9.5% in 2007
Automatic Share 30%
Fuel Economy Std Weight based fuel
economy standard
introduced
Key Technologies SMPI,TWC, CR DI
6ATs, DCTs
Emissions Standards Euro III/IV
Average Power 106ps
Key Market Characteristics
*Based on production volumes
Conclusions
• ‘No size fits all’
• Complex future technology roadmap for all
markets
• Low cost, durable requirements for
developing and developed markets
Contact Details
• Alex Woodrow, Director
• www.kgpauto.com
• T: +44 (0) 1332 856301
Acknowledgements
Thanks to J. D. Power for use of their data