Energy Updates of 2003~2004 in China
30
1 Energy Updates of Energy Updates of 2003~2004 in China 2003~2004 in China Aling ZHANG, Yanjia WANG, Alun GU Tsinghua University 5.12-5.14, Beijing Asian Energy Security Workshop Asian Energy Security Workshop
description
Asian Energy Security Workshop. Energy Updates of 2003~2004 in China. Aling ZHANG, Yanjia WANG, Alun GU Tsinghua University 5.12-5.14, Beijing. Review energy changes in China. Energy shortages of coal, oil and electricity in China Coal production: 1.667 billion tons - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Energy Updates of 2003~2004 in China
1
Energy Updates of Energy Updates of
2003~2004 in China 2003~2004 in China Aling ZHANG, Yanjia WANG, Alun GU
Tsinghua University
5.12-5.14, Beijing
Asian Energy Security WorkshopAsian Energy Security Workshop
2
Energy shortages of coal, oil and electricity in China
Coal production: 1.667 billion tonsCoal production: 1.667 billion tons
electricity: 1901 Twhelectricity: 1901 Twh
oil consumption: 266 million tonsoil consumption: 266 million tons
Energy consumption increases rapidly
Review energy changes in China Review energy changes in China
3Source: BP energy review 2003
Energy consumption in China Energy consumption in China
536.34 535.99 583.52 698.46
1678
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
Million tce
4
Energy consumption per capita Energy consumption per capita
Source: BP energy review 2003
5
Recent energy data in China Recent energy data in China
Consumption Growth rate compared with 2002
Steel 0.27 billion tons 28.6%
cement 0.836 billion tons 15.3%
Electrolytic aluminium 11.68 million tons 15.7%
Investment in three industries steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum increased rapidly this first quarter despite repeated warning from the national government
6
Overheated investmentOverheated investment
the production capacity of steel industry will reach 0.33 billion tons in 2005 , but the demand is expected to 0.33 billion tons in 2010In the electrolytic aluminum industry, the production capacity will outreach one time than the market expect in 2005In the cement industry, the total investment has grew up 133% in the same period
7
The price increment in raw material The price increment in raw material
The booming investment has led to a price increase in raw material for three industries
Compared with the same period, the growth rate of some raw material:
Raw material Growth rate
Crude oil 20%
steel 15%
Iron stone 3 times than the same period
8
ReasonsReasons
The demand for steel, electrolytic aluminum and cement is one reason for the fast investment
The other reason is that local governments focus too much on the economic growth and believe in investment growth as a method to push the local economy
9
Driven by the high profits, overheat investment will not slow down without central government intervention
The central government has sent 10 inspection teams to 20 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities to seek solutions for the investment growth
The national relevant policy and plan
10
China will still face the shortage in electricity supply in 2004, just similar in 2003
Electricity Shortage in ChinaElectricity Shortage in China
Electricity blackouts in China comparisonElectricity blackouts in China comparison
Provinces
12
22 24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002 2003 2004 first quarter
11
Electricity shortage in ChinaElectricity shortage in China
12
From April in 2004, the rural electricity price (not including Tibet) in China will be the same with urban priceThe power price difference between rural and urban was 0.5 yuan RMB beforeThe National Development Reform Commission adjusts the electricity price, 0.02-0.03/kwh yuan RMB in western regions, 0.005-0.02/kwh yuan RMB in central and eastern regions. (9th May)
Electricity Price in rural areasElectricity Price in rural areas
13
in 2004 adjustment and control over such high-power-consuming industries
regulate and clean up the favorable price for electricity
Nonetheless, some factories will be forced to suspend their production
The national relevant policy and plan
14
Many provinces will suffer electricity blackouts this summer for the power plants under construction will run in 2006. Speed up the national-wide interconnection of power networksIncrease the power supply and expand power saving measures
The national relevant policy and plan
15
The National Development Reform Commission raised benchmark gasoline rates by 300 yuan (US$36.5) per ton, or 8 percent, but kept prices of diesel unchanged on March 31, 2004.That reflects the price hike on the international oil market and the price adjustment is to catch up with the international crude oil price hike.
Oil price follows global oil Oil price follows global oil marketmarket
16
World Oil Price : 1970-2003 (From EIA)World Oil Price : 1970-2003 (From EIA)
17
In 2003, the import dependency of oil in China is about 36.5%
China imported about 91.12 million tons of crude oil in 2003, year-on-year rise of 31.29%
In the first quarter, the import oil volume reached 30 million tons
Oil consumptionOil consumption
18
Oil consumption per capita Oil consumption per capita
Source: BP energy review 2003
19Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2002
Private-owned vehicles per 100
Private-owned vehicles per 100 comparison Private-owned vehicles per 100 comparison
4. 51
0. 54
1. 36
0. 53
2. 31
0. 27
1. 8
0. 00 1. 00 2. 00 3. 00 4. 00 5. 00
Beijing
Shanghai
Guangdong
Sichuan
Tianjin
Chongqing
China
20
How to solve the effect of international oil price fluctuation on our economy.In the last years, our focus lies on how to find the oil and produce oil.In the futures, China should learn how to buy the oil in the lower price.China should take part in the international oil market.
The national relevant policy and plan
21
Last year China had begun to build up the oil strategy reserve system.But this system should be speeded up under the oil price fluctuation. Some researches had supposed that China could build a system of 20 or 30 days, then increase 90 days later. (from IEA)
The national relevant policy and plan
22
For the reasons of environment, natural gas use in China had rapidly increased recent years.
Government hope that gas will account for at least 10 percent of energy demand by 2020, up from the current 3 percent.
Expanding Natural gas USE in ChinaExpanding Natural gas USE in China
23Source: expanding natural gas use in china 2002
Map of China’s Primary Natural Gas Map of China’s Primary Natural Gas and Coal bed Methane Reservesand Coal bed Methane Reserves
24
Output and growth of natural gas in Output and growth of natural gas in ChinaChina
Source: China Statistic Yearbook 2000
25
In the Chinese market, natural gas usage will be focused in power generation, followed by the chemical industry as feedstock, the industrial sector as fuel, and residential sector as a cooking and heating sourceThe end usage is to be located in northeast China, near the Bohai Sea and along the southeast coastal provinces.
Natural Gas Usage in ChinaNatural Gas Usage in China
26
Guangdong Province will import LNG from Australia in 2005
Fujian Province will import from Indonesia in 2006
For geographical reason, importing LNG will have cost advantage in southern province in China
The national relevant policy and plan
27
China has a priority policy on the domestic development for the political reasons
China has set up the Renewable Energy Promotion Law
China has set up the national mid-long technology planning
The national relevant policy and plan
28
The base year: 2000.
Data source: from yearbook or the public report.
There is no change in the structure of the model.
We modify the data in the LEAP model.
The Regional Alternative path of LEAP The Regional Alternative path of LEAP model in Chinamodel in China
29
Adjust some data in our LEAP model
How to realize the energy efficiency in the LEAP model
Next stepsNext steps
