Is world food security guaranteed? Turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future
Energy Security in an Uncertain World
description
Transcript of Energy Security in an Uncertain World
Energy Security in an Uncertain World
Andy BostonTechnical Head, Business Modelling
September 2011
Slide 2Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling
The TrilemmaCarbon
SecurityCost
There has, rightly, been a strong focus on reducing
CO2 emissions
Sustainable
Slide 3Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling
The TrilemmaCarbon
SecurityCost
But security is put at risk by uncertainties at different timescales
Sustainable
Slide 4Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling
Timescales of Threats to Security1 decade 1 year 1 month 1 day 1 hour 1 minute 1 second
DemandExisting demand growth
Insufficient planned build
Enforced closures
Fuel Supply Availability
HV Grid constraints
Long term breakdown
Delays to new build
Short term breakdown Unexpected unit trip
TV pick-upWeather forecast errors
Unexpected circuit loss
Network
Generation
Wind forecast errors
Insufficient flexible dependable plant
New loads
LV Grid constraints Circuit outages
Clim
ate
Change
Reduced inertia
Aging assets
Slide 5Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling
Timescales of Mitigation Measures1 decade 1 year 1 month 1 day 1 hour 1 minute 1 second
Fuel diversity & renewables
Energy efficiency
Grid strengthening
Demand Side management
Automatic disconnectionDS Frequency
response
GeneratorFrequency responseDerogations Opt-outs
Buffer batteries
Legislation
Demand
Network
Generation
New storage
Balancing mechanism
Reserve
Grid warning:NISMs
Voltage reductions
Design improvements
Return mothballed
plant to service
New generationNuclear
CoalCCGT
OCGT
Price Signals
Smart Grids
Constrain Generation
Gre
en h
ouse
gas
em
issi
on re
ducti
ons
Uncertainty Timescale: seconds
Inertia is being removed from the system:Conventional generation has higher inertia than wind
Unit size could increase: EPR at 1600MW up from Sizewell at 1100MW.Need for greater inertia or fast acting response
Slide 6Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling
Generator tripTV pickup
Uncertainty Timescale: minutes to hoursOutput can vary by up to 6% capacity in 10 minutesSo 30 GW wind will need +/-2GW capacity to actively balance in that
timescale
Slide 7Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 Simulated UK wind output over 1 day at 10 minute resolution
Standard deviation of 10 minute changes = 2.5%
Uncertainty Timescale: hours and daysThere’s a need for very flexible generation to meet sharp peaksThere are periods of over generation where storage can avoid spill
Slide 8Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
00:30 12:30 00:30 12:30 00:30 12:30 00:30 12:30
Wind
Nuclear
Flexible generation
Tidal (SB)
Spill
Slide 9Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling
Onshore and Offshore output for two weeks in February 06
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Onshore portoflio
Offshore Portfolio
Demand
Peak 2006Five day period with very little wind. Peak demand for
2006 occurs in middle of this period when output of combined portfolio was 6%
of capacity.
8TWh gap
Uncertainty Timescale: days and weeks
Slide 10Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling
Uncertainty Timescale: Weeks and months
Weather events last a few days. UK wind output varies from <10% to >80% capacity on that timescale.
Note also weekend effect on demand and seasonal variation across the year
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Fossil (no renewables)
Fossil (with 38% renewables)
RenewablesFirm backup
Dai
ly e
nerg
y (G
Wh)
Slide 11Security of Supply Jan 09 Business Modelling
Uncertainty Timescale: Years
Policy and markets influence generation mix over many years
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Wind
Bio
GasCoal
Oil NuclearCCS
Marine
Evolution to diverse energy supply with many technologies
20 years 20 years
10 years
10 years
Summary
There are uncertainties on all timescales from < 1 second to > 4 decadesUtilities have to: Understand the threats Undertake appropriate mitigation Consider the entire supply chain from energy source through conversion
and transmission to utilisation
And have to understand the effects of mitigation at one timescale may impact security of supply negatively at another timescale.
So the solutions are complex and diverse
Slide 12Uncertainty / MEGS Sep 11 Business Modelling