ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES Dr. sc. Goran Granić et al...

ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES

Dr. sc. Goran Granić et al

Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar

ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES

CONTENT

1. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS2. GEO-DIVISION OF THE WORLD (FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER)3. WORLD POPULATION4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT5. ENERGY DEMAND6. ENERGY PRODUCTION7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT10. ENERGY EFFICIENCY11. NEW TECHNOLOGIES12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING14. ENERGY TRANSPORTATION15. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION16. OBSERVATIONS

1. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

EUROPE: BREAKDOWN OF USSR, YUGOSLAVIA, CZECOSLOVAKIA, FALL

OF COMMUNIST SYSTEM WAR IN CROATIA, BOSNIA AND

HERZEGOVINA, KOSOVO AND RUSSIA (CHECHNIA)

DEMOCRATIC AND ECONOMIC TRANSITION OF EAST

EUROPEAN COUNTRIES EUROPEAN UNION ENLARGEMENT

MIDDLE EAST WAR IN KUWAIT

TALIBAN REGIME IN AFGANISTAN OVERTHROWN

SADDAM HUSSEIN IN IRAQ OVERTHROWN

SOUTH AMERICA POLITICAL INSTABILITY OF SOME COUNTRIES

USA TERRORIST ATTACK 11 SEPTEMBER 2001

AFRICA LOCAL WARS AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN A LARGE NUMBER

OF COUNTRIES

CRIMES IN RWANDA

1. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

CHINA POLITICAL CHANGES PAVED THE WAY TO MARKET-

ORIENTED ECONOMY RETURN OF HON KONG

ISRAEL AND PALESTINE CONTINUITY OF CONFLICT AND MILITARY ACTIONS

GLOBAL PROBLEM TERRORISM POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND WAR

ACTIVITIES IN THE ENERGY PRODUCTION AREAS

CROATIAN INDEPENDENCE, TRANSITION AND START OF THE EU FULL MEMBERSHIP NEGOTIATIONS

2. GEO - DIVISION OF THE WORLD

o OECD N. America - Canada, Mexicoand USA

o OECD Pacific - Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand

o OECD Europe - Austria, Belgium, Czech R., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Island, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom

o Non-OECD Europe - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulagaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Gibraltar, FYROM, Malta, Roumenia, Serbia and Montenegro and Slovenia

o Former USSR - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belorussia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghisia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldavia, Russia, Tadzhikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan

o Middle East - Bahrein, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Yemen

o Latin America – countries of Central and South America excl. Mexico

o Other Asia – Asian countries excl. China, India, Japan and Korea

o Africa – all African countries

3. WORLD POPULATION (million)

4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

4.1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (PKM - 109 2000 US$)

4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

4.2. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA (PKM)

5. ENERGY DEMAND

5.1. TOTAL WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION (106 TOE)

5. ENERGY DEMAND

5.2. REGIONS IN TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

5. ENERGY DEMAND

5.3. TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (106 TOE)

5. ENERGY DEMAND

5.4. TOTAL WORLD CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY FORMS (106 TOE)

6. ENERGY PRODUCTION

6.1. WORLD PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY (106 TOE)


6.2. PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION PER CAPUTA (kgen/capita)


6.3. STRUCTURE OF WORLD ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION (TWh)


6.4. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY REGIONS (TWh)


6.5. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (kWh/capita)


6.6. PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION INCREASE (106 TOE)

7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS

7.1. CRUDE OIL RESERVES (BILLION OF BARRELS)

952,9 957,7 956,5 968,5 980,31.026,8 1.024,3 1.042,2 1.023,9 1.026,3 1.039,9 1.046,6

1.100,0

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

First 20 World totalSource: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review


7.2. NATURAL GAS RESERVES (BILLION m3)

Source: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review

134.981145.957 146.194 147.652 149.396 152.244 153.253 156.112 159.354

164.321

177.822 180.606 180.176

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

200.000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

First 20 World total


7.3. RESERVES OF HYDRATES

Discovered reserves of hydrates in land and sea

Corroborated reserves 20 x 1015 m3

1 m3 hydrate = 164 m3 natural gas

Pacific Ocean

Pacific Ocean

Atlantic Ocean

Indian Ocean

Arctic OceanArctic Ocean

8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS

8.1. CRUDE OIL

Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2005


8.2. NATURAL GAS

Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2005


8.3. COAL

Source: IEA, Key World

Energy Statistics 2005

9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT

9.1. LARGE POWER PLANTS

HYDRO POWER PLANTS:

Utility degree improvement Significant growth in Central and South America

COAL- FIRED THERMAL POWER PLANTS: Utility degree improvement and installed capacity increase Efficient SO2 removal and pilot project of CO2 emission mitigation Significant capacity growth especially in China and India

GAS - FIRED THERMAL POWER PLANTS: Utility degree improvement Significant capacity increase

NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: Extended lifetime (60 years=, unit capacity increase, evolutinary improvements, dramatic

changes in design and configuration of the existing technologies, several initiatives in new reactor development (GIF, INPRO, ITER)


9.1.1. COAL - AND GAS - FIRED THERMAL POWER UNITS

Capacity increase in thermal power units in 1990-2003 period, %

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Croatia WesternEurope

EasternEuropeand ex-SSSR

China India Japan Other Asia &Oceania

MiddleEast

NorthAmerica

Central& SouthAmerika

Africa Worldtotal

Source: Energy Information Administration


9.1.2. NUCLEAR ENERGY – CAPACITY STATUS

After 1990 there is noticeable stagnation in installed

NP capacity growth

In future most of new nuclear capacities expected in

China as to meet the strong electricity demand

Growth

Source: EIA Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Most of nuclear capacities are installed in Western Europe and North America

Between 1990 and 2003 only Japan had a significant growth in nuclear capacities

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Western Europe

Eastern Europe and

Ex-USSR

China India Japan Other Asiaand Australia

NorthAmerica

South and iCentralAmerica

Africa

GW

1990 nuclear

1990 total

2003 total

2003 nuclear 0

100

200

300

400

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

GW

Africa

South and Central America

Other Asia, Middle East nd Oceania

India

China

Japan

Eastern Europe and ex-USSR

North America

Western Europe

W. Europe

N. America

East Europe + ex-USSR

Japan

Other Asia


9.2. RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

WIND Unit capacity increase and investment costs reduction High growth of construction

BIOMASS Application in electricity production, heat production and transportation Technological progress realized

SUN Increase in collector installation by annual rate of 13%, and solar cells by 27% Dominant silicium-based technology (93.7%),

GEOTHERMAL ENERGIES Capacity growth of 44%, electricity generation growth of 48%; thernal capacities growth of

76%, and heat production growth of 70% in previous period

SMALL HYDRO POWER PLANTS

HYDRO POWER PLANTS Permanent generation growth Small steps forward in technological development

EWEA target: 75000 MW in Europe by 2010


9.2.1. WIND – PRICE GROWTH TENDENCY

€c/kWh

10. ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Significant progress in energy efficiency improvements in:

Changing attitude towards energy efficiency in legal sense, government measures, technological improvements, and awareness-raising and education of expert and general public

Utility degree increase in energy generation and transformation

Increased use of cogenration

Reduction of losses in transportation and distribution

Energy efficiency improvements in technological processes

Energy efficiency improvements in consumers: coolers, chillers, and their combinations, laundry washers and dryers, dish washers, electric stoves, light sources, and air-conditioning equipment

Increased insulation quality and production of new materials in construction industry

11. NEW TECHNOLOGIES

HYDROGEN

Major lines of development of hydrogen production

Fosil fuels – reforming natural gas, coal carburation, incomplete oil derivative oxidation Water electrolysis by use of RES – solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, hydro, geothermal energy, etc. Thermal chemical production – water decomposition in chemical reactins with heat Nuclear energy – water electrolysis and decomposition Biosystems – biomass carburation, algae biophotolysis

Problems of hydrogen storage

Gaseous hydrogen –- composite and other reservoirs Liquified hydrogen – criogens, absorbent solutions, organic liquifactions Solid materials –- carbon and hydrides, able to absorb hydrogen

Main areas of hydrogen use

Hydrogen combustion: internal-combustion engines - transport; gas turbines –- aircraft transport, combined energy plants

Fuel cells; decentralized electricity and heat generation, transport and others (develpent of high-temperature – decentralized CHP, low-temperature – for vehicles and small CHP)

12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS

12.1. TRANSPORT

Share of road transport is increasing, while share of railway and pipeline transport is decreasing. Railway transport is stable.

Share of road transport is increasing, while share if railway and river transport is decreasing – constant trend

Source: Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, European Commission,"EU Energy and Transport in Figures 2004"

Freight transport - EU 15

52,160,0

69,3 70,6 72,9 74,0 74,7 75,5

30,124,1

18,1 16,4 14,4 14,0 13,4 12,910,9 8,8 7,6 7,5 7,4 7,2 7,0 6,96,8 7,1 5,0 5,5 5,3 4,8 4,8 4,6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1990 1991 1995 2000 2001 2002

(%)

Pipelines

River transport

Railways

Road transprot

Freight transport - USA

22,4 23,6 26,2 27,2 30,5 30,9 30,3

41,5 39,1 37,6 38,241,3 42,2 43,1

12,8 12,3 12,0 13,110,4 10,4 10,0

23,4 25,0 24,2 21,6 17,8 16,6 16,6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1985 1990 1999 2000 2001

(%)

Pipelines

River transport

Railways

Road transport


12.1. TRANSPORT

Source: Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, European Commission, "EU Energy and Transport in Figures 2004"

Railway transport decreasing while airways transport is increasing.

Share of road and railway transport is decearsing and share of airway transport is increasing.

Passenger transport - EU15

73,8 76,1 79,0 78,9 79,5 78,8 78,5 78,5 78,8

12,7 11,8 9,3 9,2 8,7 8,4 8,3 8,3 8,3

10,4 8,4 6,7 6,8 6,3 6,2 6,3 6,3 6,2

4,0 4,1 4,6 5,5 5,9 5,9 5,71,01,01,00,90,91,11,01,21,6

2,51,6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1990 1991 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002

(%)

Airways

Trams and metro

Railways

Buses

Pasenger cars

Passenger transport - SAD

91,3 89,1 87,2 86,6 85,0 84,7 85,7

3,2 3,5 3,4 3,1

9,1 9,5 10,9 11,2 10,6

3,02,42,3

0,50,4 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3

0,50,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3

5,4 7,7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1985 1990 1999 2000 2001

(%)

Airways

Trams and metro

Railways

Buses

Passenger cars


12.1. TRANSPORT

1970 – Rules on technical measures and requirements for thermal protection of buildings – Official Bulletin of SFRY SFRJ 35/70 – 3 climate zones.1980 – new requirements in thermal protection of buildings. New, stricter, and amended version of these norms adopted in 1987 and is still in force today as HRN U.J.5.600, HRN U.J5.510, HRN U.J5.520, HRN U.J5.530.

LEGAL ENVIRONMENT AND HEAT NEEDS IN BUILDINGS

050

100150200250

300350

OLD H

OUSES

CRO REGULA

TION 1

987

NEW R

EGULATIO

N 200

5

LOW

-ENERGY H

OUSES

PASSIVE H

OUSESSp

ecif

ic e

ner

gy

dem

and

in k

Wh

/m2

Electricity in households

Electricity for ventilation

Hot water for consume

Heating

CHANGING REGULATION ON THERMAL PROTECTION IN CROATIA FROM 1970 UNTIL NOW

o Currently 83% of buildings in Croatia has unsatisfactory thermal protection in relation to the European standards and more than 50% of buildings was built without any thernal protection

o New technical requirements on heat energy savings and thermal protection in buildings – first step in harmonization with Directive 2002/91/EC – needed heat certificate for buildings (as from 01 July 2006 in Croatia)

83%

17%

Unsatisfactory thermal protection

Thermal protection in compliance withrequirements from 1987

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

before 1919 1919.- 1945.

1946.-1960

1961- 1970.

1971.- 1980

1981.- 1990

1991- 1995

from 1996 data

not availableincompleteapartments

Number ofinhabitedapartmentsbyyear ofconstruction


12.2. DWELLINGS

13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING

GAS BEFORE 1990

MONOPOLY: NATIONAL OR SUPPLY AREAS

COMPETITION: NON EXISTING IN NATIONAL MARKET SUPPLY

NATIONAL MARKETS: TRADING BETWEEN GAS COMPANIES

REGULATION: REGULATOR IS GOVERNMENT THERE IS NOT

INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY

OWNERSHIP: IN PRINCIPLE STATE-OWNERSHIP PREVAILS

CUSTOMERS: CANNOT CHOOSE SUPPLIER


GAS UNTIL 2005

RESTRUCTURING: UNBUNDLING MARKET-ORIENTED AND MONOPOLY

ACTVITIES UNBUNDLING TRANSPORT AND DISTRIBUTION

FROM PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY ESTABLISHING

TRANSPORT NETWORK OPERATOR ESTABLISHING

DISTRIBUTION NETWORK OPERATOR (OR COMBINED

OPERATOR) STORAGE AS SEPARATE ACTIVITY

COMPETITION: IN PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY

NATIONAL MARKETS: MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION OF MARKET

REGULATION: INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY

OWNERSHIP: PRIVATIZATION, MULTINATIONAL DIMESION, TAKE – OVER

OF SMALLER COMPANIES

CUSTOMERS: POSSIBILITY TO CHOOSE SUPPLIER


ELECTRICITY BEFORE 1990

MONOPOLY: NATIONAL

COMPETITION : NONE COMPETITION IN SUPPLY

NATONAL MARKETS: TRADING BETWEEN ELECTRIC POWER UNDERTAKINGS

REGULATION: REGULATOR IS GOVERNMENT, THERE IS NOT

INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY

OWNERSHIP : STATE OWNERSHIP PREVAILS

CUSTOMERS : CANNOT CHOOSE SUPPLIER


ELECTRICITY UNTIL 2005

RESTRUCTURING: UNBUNDLING MARKET-ORIENTED AND MONOPOLY ACTVITIES UNBUNDLING TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION FROM GENERATION AND SUPPLY

ESTABLISHING TRANSMISSION SYSTEM OPERATOR ESTABLISHING DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATOR

ESTABLISHING ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATOR

COMPETITION: IN GENERATION AND SUPPLY

NATIONAL MARKETS: MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION OF MARKET

REGULATIONA: INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY

OWNERSHIP: PRIVATIZATION, MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION, TAKE - OVER OF SMALLER COMPANIES

CUSTOMERS: POSSIBILITY TO CHOOOSE SUPPLIER

14. ENERGY TRANSPORT

14.1.OIL PIPELINES

Existing pipelines

Pipelines under consideration /construction/ extenstionProduct pipelines

Proposed priority routes Of European interest


14.2. ELECTRICITY NETWORKS OF UCPTE COUNTRY MEMBERS


14.3. EXPORT OF NATURAL GAS (billon m3)

Izvor: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review

Slight but constant rise of exports in relation to production, both through gas pipelines or through LNG.

Export of natural gas (bill m )3

80,9 83,2 88,3 92,7 100,3 111,1 114,0 124,4 137,2 143,3 150,6

398,4 402,1 384,0405,7

431,9 419,4 434,5473,8

518,8548,4

570,6

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Export (LNG) Export (via gas pipelines)

Gas pipelines

LNG

Source: Trans European Network


14.4. GAS NETWORK PRIORITY PROJECTS


14.5. POTENTIAL GAS PIPELINES’ CAPACITIES, bill m3

15. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

o Energy sector:‐ Air emissions,‐ Soil pollution,‐ Water pollution,‐ Waste (incl. nuclear)

o As of 1990 noticed is general trend of air emissions reduction (6.3% under Annex I UNFCCC countries)

o Transitional economies accomplished noticeable reductions (by 40%) due to economic activity setback

o Significant influence of measures set out by conventions - UN FCCC and Kyoto protokol – on economies (espec. transitional countries)

Source : UNFCCC: FCC/CP/2004/5

15. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

FUTURE ACTIVITIES

o Transport systems efficiency improvement:• Leakage of energy products from from pipelines, gas pipelines and other network

systems,• Increased system efficiency but there is multiple increase in transported quantities of

energy products,• Pressures due to increased volumes of energy products transport by tankers,• Energy related incidents in road transport.

o Energy sector waste management, especially nuclear waste

o Greenhouse gas emission mitigation:• UN FCCC and Kyoto Protocol implementing mechanisms :

• Emissions reduction,• Emission tradings,• Projects in the framework of Joint Implementation...

• reducing emission of other pollutants, with and without greenhouse effects, from the energy sector,

• energy efficiency.

o Finding modalities of financing measures for reducing pollution from the energy sector.

16. OBSERVATIONS / 1

Political changes in the past 15 years had significant impact on energy consumption (former communist countries in Europe, USSR, China, etc.)

Wars and crises in most cases related to energy producing countries

Population growth took place only in China, India, other part of Asia and Africa, i.e., in less developed part of the world

Economic growth (increse in GDP) in absolute terms is higher in undeveloped world than in the developed one, but the gap is still wide

A larger portion of energy consumption was realized in undeveloped countries (55%), regardless of the fact that 2 billion people in the world do not have access to modern forms of energy

Energy intensity is improving

Regardless of increased use of renewables, oil and gas made up more than 50% of the energy consumption growth

In electricity consumption China had the higest rise; and less developed countries in absolute terms had increased electricty consumption more than developed ones.


In energy production the deficit in developed countries inceases, because primary energy forms production growth has been realized in undeveloped countries.

The higest growth in electricty production was realized in coal, gas-fired thermal power units and nuclear units, by most in China.

Crude oil and gas reserves in the past period grew faster than production.

In oil prices it is essential to point out the period of unrealistically low prices 98/99 and the period of high prices 2004/2005. Demand growth in China and other undeveloped countries is the real reason of price increase but its dominant dimension is in political and economic speculations.

Gas prices were in line with crude oil prices, only the most restictive factor are poorly developed transport network

Coal prices have been relatively more stable except for the period 2004/2005 when demand grew, mostly in China.


The past 15 years was the period of application of known technologies minimally improved to meet energy efficiency and environemantal impact requirements

The focus is increasinlgy on energy efficiecy and renewable energy sources

The characteristic of the past 15 years is the opening of electricity and gas markets, legal regulation of the market, restructuration and privatization

Barriers to market development, transport and domination of short term over long term objectives

Transport sector significantly grows without arrangements which could vitaly affect the structure of energy consumption structure

Realistic possibilities of energy efficiency improvements in building sector


On the basis of the past 15 years the next 15-year developments can be foreseen:

Introduction of new technologies with more dramatic imapct on structural changes in energy supply and demand is not expected

Continuation of economic growth and energy demand growth in undeveloped countries is expected.

Continuation of political insecurity around the energy producing countries is expected Further pressures on prices of primary energy forms is expected More significant gvernmental involvement is expected with a view of energy effciency

improvements and use renewables

Desirable and crucial would be a decision by international community and governments to forge acoalition for technological development in energy sector and investments in technology.

More investments in research and development of primary energy forms production and in transprot network construction for network fuels would enhance security of supply.


CONCEPT OF WEC EUROPE REGIONAL SCENARIOS TO 2050

ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES Dr. sc. Goran Granić et al...

Documents

Transcript of ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES Dr. sc. Goran Granić et al...