Energy Perspectives 2013 Long-run macro and market outlook · LPG CNG-LNG. Source: IEA, Statoil LNG...
Transcript of Energy Perspectives 2013 Long-run macro and market outlook · LPG CNG-LNG. Source: IEA, Statoil LNG...
Energy Perspectives 2013 Long-run macro and market outlook
Presentation for Nätverket Olja & Gas 9 September 2013 Eirik Wærness, Chief Economist
Security
Classificati
on: Internal
- Status:
Draft
www.statoil.com/energyperspectives
• A 30-year macro and market outlook
• The global economy
– Growth close to historic average (2.8%)
– Two speeds – non-OECD catching up
• Overall energy market outlook
– 1.3% annual growth (oil 0.5%, coal: 0.7%)
– Moderate greening of energy mix
• Global oil and gas markets
– Oil demand peaks around 2030
– Gas demand increasing (1.6% per year)
• Strong growth in new renewables
– … but CO2 emissions grow until 2030…
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Energy Perspectives 2013
Difficult to predict – a number of outcomes are possible
• The world is characterized by…
– Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and
Ambiguity
– Conflicts are difficult to solve
– Growth is difficult to generate
– Sustainability is very difficult to ensure
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A world of uncertainty framing the development
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A world of uncertainty framing the development
• The world is characterized by…
– Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and
Ambiguity
– Conflicts are difficult to solve
– Growth is difficult to generate
– Sustainability very difficult to ensure
• … but also by
– High growth in emerging economies
– Movement out of poverty and into affluence
– Increasing life expectancy
– Technological progress and opportunities
Difficult to predict – a number of outcomes are possible
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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The world’s most important commodity … is notoriously difficult to predict…
Mar 99
Dec 01 Oct 03
Aug 05
Apr 05
May 08
Mar 11
Aug 13
Economic gravity moves (back) to the east, and so does energy demand
Source: McKinsey (map), International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections).
The global economic centre of gravity Based on geographical weighting of GDP
A strong trend affecting economics and energy
Shifting energy demand Share in global energy demand, %
0
25
50
75
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Rest of world IndiaChina OECD PacificOECD Europe OECD North America
Non-OECD driving growth, energy efficiency to improve by almost 40%
Global energy demand TPED, bn toe
Growth and energy intensity Growth (%) and toe/million 2005-USD
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100
200
300
-4
0
4
8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
TPED
GDP
Energy intensity (rhs)
0
5
10
15
20
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
International bunkers
Other non-OECD
Non-OECD Asia
OECD
Source: IHS Global Insight and International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections)
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Growth, efficiency and energy demand
Economic growth Annual change in GDP (%)
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2
4
6
8
OECD Non-OECDAsia
Othernon-
OECD
'91-00 '01-10 11-2021-30 '31-40
World energy mix Share of total energy demand (TPED, %)
Source: International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections)
… but fossil fuels constitute 72% of total energy demand in 2040
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20
40
60
80
100
2010 2040 2010 2040 2010 2040
Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewables
Energy mix Shareof total energydemand (TPED, %)
North America Europe China
8
Gradual greening of energy mix
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewables
Emerging economies drive demand growth – oil demand peaks ~ 2030
Global oil demand ex bio fuels, mbd
Global gas demand 1000 bcm
Source: International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections)
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Fossil fuels are here to stay
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25
50
75
100
125
150
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
International bunkers
Other non-OECD
Non-OECD Asia
OECD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
International bunkers
Other non-OECD
Non-OECD Asia
OECD
Non-Opec production Mbd
*Biofuels, GTL, processing gains
Source: IEA, Statoil
Global oil supply from different sources Opec crude regaining importance, eventually
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20
40
60
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Other sources*Oil sandsNon-Opec NGLNon-Opec Tight oilNon-Opec Conv. crude
Opec oil production Mbd
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Opec NGL Iraq crude
Saudi Arabia crude Other crude
Source: IEA, WoodMac, various research institutions, Statoil
New sources of oil are not cheap – economics and finance matter
Technology and prices affect new oil supplies
Break-even prices for new developments USD/bbl
Unconventional oil key to filling the gap
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120
2000 2005 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Unconventional oil Processing gainsNGLs Conventional YTD/YTFCurrently producing "Scarcity""Abundance"
World oil supply by type IEA’s NP scenario and other views (mbd)
… in addition to fighting decline and continuing exploration – large uncertainty!
Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, Statoil. “Scarcity”: Aleklett, Kjell et al. 2010. The Peak of the oil age. Energy Policy 38 (3), 1398-1414. “Abundance”: Maugeri, Leonardo.
2012. Oil: The Next Revolution. Discussion Paper 2012-10. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Harvard Kennedy School.
Additions to global annual oil supply 2010-2025 (mb/d), estimate range
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2
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6
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Oil demand depends on transport development
Energy mix in transport Bn toe
Use of oil by sector Bn toe
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1
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4
2010 2020 2030 2040
Power Non-energyResidential IndustryOther stationary Transport
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1
2
3
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2010 2020 2030 2040
Coal Oil Gas Renewables Electricity Heat
… in addition to some other sectors…
Future oil demand is about transportation
Source: Statoil
Fuel efficiency L/100km
Growth in fleet, changing composition, tightening of performance standards
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6
8
10
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
EU 2013
China 2013
US 2013
Vehicle Fleet Composition Millions
0
1 000
2 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Th
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sa
nd
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Gasoline DieselFFV Hybrid - GasolinePHEV FEVLPG CNG-LNG
Source: IEA, Statoil
LNG supply 2012-30 Bcm
Gas is the winner among fossil fuels - growing 1.6% per year
Global gas demand Bcm
Global gas markets – long-term growth
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
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7000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
International bunkers AfricaMiddle East Other non-OECD AsiaIndia ChinaOECD Pacific Other FSURussia Non-OECD EuropeOECD Europe Latin AmericaOECD North America
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500
600
700
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Africa Asia Europe
FSU Latin America Middle East
North America Oceania
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
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CO2 emissions level out around 2030 Lower growth, fuel efficiency, electrification, CCS
Global CO2 emissions billion tonnes
0
20
40
60
2010 2020 2030 2040
International bunkers Other non-OECD
Non-OECD Asia OECD
IEA NP IEA CP
IEA 450
Regional change in energy demand 2010-40 Bn toe
-1
0
1
2
3
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables
Rest of the world China
OECD Europe OECD North America
World
Assumptions on economic and energy demand growth differ, …
Total primary energy demand CAGR, %
Total oil demand CAGR, %
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Comparing different forecasts
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0,5
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1,5
2
2,5
2010-2030
2010-2040
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1,42010-2030
2010-2040
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Thank you!
… and largest differences for new renewables
Total gas demand CAGR, %
Total new renewables demand CAGR, %
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Comparing different forecasts, cont.
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2010-2040
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2010-2040
Electrification becomes more important
Electricity as share of total final energy
consumption, %
New renewables as share of electricity %
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Comparing different forecasts, cont.
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30
2010 2030 2040
Statoil
IEA
EIA
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40
2010 2030 2040
Statoil
Shell 1
Shell 2
IEA
EIA