Energy end-use: Buildings Diana Urge-Vorsatz, CLA, Chapter 10 Director Center for Climate Change and...

Energy end-use:BuildingsDiana Urge-Vorsatz, CLA, Chapter 10DirectorCenter for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy PolicyCentral European University

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 2© GEA 2012

Key messages● The importance of energy end-use in a sustainable energy transformation:

High-efficiency end-use provides much more flexibility and lower costs for a sustainable energy transformation

● Systemic solutions becoming the key to end-use energy transformation vs. individual technologies or gadgets – all end-use chapters confirmed

● Recent developments in the buildings sector help this sector in potentially largely contributing to the transformation

● It is possible in all regions to build (and retrofit) very high performance buildings, at costs that pay back in en. savings

● However, there is a major lock-in risk● There are also substantial barriers and thus such future will only be

realised through strong political commitment and concerted policy packages

● The GEA has shown that there many examples of political commitment and/or effective policies worldwide, although far from sufficient, and not without controversy:● Net zero energy buildings…?

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 33

DEMAND → Supply MixEfficienc

y

TRANSPORT →Adv

Conv

AdvCon

vAdv Conv

SUPPLYFull portfolio of supply options X X X X X X

Limited renewable energy sources (RES) X - X X X XLimited bioenergy X - X X X X

Limited RES & Limited bioenergy - - - - X XNo Nuclear X X X X X X

No carbon capture and storage (CCS) - - X X X XNo Nuclear & No carbon capture and

storage- - - - X X

No bioenergy CCS X - X - X XNo carbon sinks beyond the baseline

(No sinks)X - X X X X

No bioenergy CCS & No sinks & Limited BE*

- - - - X X

GEA sustainable energy scenarios: feasibility of demand, transport and supply

choices

From Aleh Cherp, modified from Riahi et al., 2012 (GEA Chapter 17)


GEA-Efficiency

Industry:1. Retrofit of existing plants2. Best available technology for

new investments3. Optimization of energy &

material flows 4. Lifecycle product design &

enhanced recycling5. Electrification incl. switch to

renewable energy

Global Final Energy Demand by key sectors

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800

900

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EJ /

yr

Transport

Residential/Commercial

Industry

Residential:1. Rapid introduction of

strict building codes2. Accelerate retrofit rate

to 3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050)

3. Improved electrical appliances

Transport:1. Technology

efficiency (50%)2. Reduced private

mobility (eg urban planning)

3. Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight


Importance of systemic/holistic solutions

● All three end-use chapters independently found as a key message that systemic solutions become the keys to a low-E future rather than individual technologies

● Chapter 8 (Industry): “…the large gains will not come from narrow process efficiency improvement but from application of broader systems optimization strategies.”

● These include improved materials efficiency, multi-generation, heat integration, cogeneration, recycling and a change of process inputs

● “The only way to cut energy consumption by industry more than marginally is to use much less of the products of industry and to sharply increase the rate of product re-use, renovation, re-manufacturing and recycling. This is technically feasible, but it will be politically very difficult.”

● Chapter 10, buildings: “approaches optimising individual component efficiencies typically result in 20 – 30% efficiency gains in heating and cooling energy use, while novel approaches focusing on holistic methods involving integrated design principles have been demonstrated to achieve as much as 60 – 90% energy savings compared to standard practice.”

● Chapter 18, urban: “In urban areas, systemic characteristics of energy use are generally more important determinants for the efficiency of urban energy use than the characteristics of individual consumers or of technological artifacts. “


Buildings are key to sustainable future● Buildings are responsible for:

– app 31% of global final energy demand – 60% of the world’s electricity use, – one-third of energy-related CO2 emissions (incl. “indirect”), – two-thirds of halocarbon, – and 25–33% of black carbon emissions

● Therefore, improving buildings and their equipment offers one of the key entry points to addressing these challenges

● Recent major advances in building design, know-how, technology, and policy have made it possible for building energy use to decline significantly (by up to 90%).

● A large number of such very low- energy buildings already exist, demonstrating that very low level of building energy consumption is achievable. With the application of on-site and community-scale renewable energy sources, several buildings and communities could become zero-net-energy users and zero-greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters, or net energy suppliers.

Buildings utilising passive solar construction (“PassivHaus”)

Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz

0

50

100

150

200

250

Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům

celko

vá en

ergie

[kWh

/m2 a]

Domácí spotřebiče

Vzduchotechnika

Ohřev TUV

Vytápění

- 90%

- 75%


“EU buildings – a goldmine for CO2 reductions, energy security, job creation and

addressing low income population problems”

Source: Claude Turmes (MEP), Amsterdam Forum, 2006

More on Solanova: www.solanova.eu

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50

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Before SOLANOVA

kWh

/m2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84%


The role of culture:Breakdown of energy consumption in households of

different developed countries

Source: IEA, 2007

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

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45

GJ p

er ca

pita

(no

rma

lise

d to

27

00

HD

D)

Appliances Lighting Cooking Water heating Space heating


2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

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2041

2044

2047

2050

0

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Ad-v.New

Std.New

PWh/year

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

bln.sq.m

-46.4%+126%

Final SH&C Energy Floor Area

How far can buildings take us? App. a 46% of global final heating and cooling energy use reduction is possible by 2050

compared to 2005

This is attainable through the proliferation of today’s building best practices and accelerated state-of-the-art retrofits. This is achievable while increasing amenity, thermal comfort, living spaces, eradicating fuel poverty and without interceding in economic and population growth trends


Investment needs and energy cost savings

The low-E scenario requires app. US$14.2 trillion in undiscounted cumulative investments by 2050. These investments return app. US$58 trillion in undiscounted energy cost savings during the same period


However: significant lock-in risk

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

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2028

2029

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2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

Sub-Optimal State of the Art

PWh/year

-46.4%

32.5%

79%


Strong political commitment and policy packages needed

● There are a very broad range of barriers prevailing in the building sector tenant-owner; builder-occupant; information; lack of financing; etc.

● Combined with the lock-in risk, the low-energy building pathway thus requires strong political commitment, and diverse, ambitious, concerted policy packages

● Already many regions have demonstrated political commitment at some level

● Over 20 building sector policy instruments examined; many have been saving energy at - 13 -- +4 USCents/kWh worldwide (see Table 10.19)

● As a result, we see long stagnation, or even decline in building energy use in selected developed countries


Table of commitments to low-E bldgs

Countrytarget year description of target

UK 2016 zero carbon homes

California 2020 all new residential construction zero net energy

California 2030 all new commercial construction zero net energy

Denmark 2020all new buildings to use 75% less specific E than the

2006 code

Austria 2015 all new social housing must meet passivehouse stds

France 2020 all new bldgs must be energy positive

Germany 2020 all new bldgs must be primary energy neutral

Netherlands 2020 all new buildings shall be energy neutral


Net-Zero Energy Buildings Requiring buildings to be zero-net-energy is not likely to be the lowest cost

or most sustainable approach in eliminating fossil fuel use, and is sometimes impossible.

Net-zero- energy buildings are feasible only in certain locations and for certain building types and uses.

In aiming for zero fossil fuel energy use as quickly as possible, an economical energy strategy would implement some combination of: reduced demand for energy; use of available waste heat from industrial,

commercial, or decentralized electricity production;

on-site production of sustainable energy; Combined with off-site supply of C-free and low

impact energy, taking into account all the costs and benefits and the reliability of various options.

Science House at the Science Museum of Minnesota


Conclusion● Recent developments in technology and know-how enable that this

sector can play a major role in the sustainable energy transformation● By 2050, app. 46% less energy can be used by heating/cooling than

today, despite an app. 126% increase in floorspace, and service levels

● However, there is a substantial lock-in risk: even “ambitious” present policies can lock in as much as 80% of today’s building energy use by 2050

● Due to this and the very strong barriers in the sector, only very strong political commitment and transformative policy packages can put us on the GEA low scenario

● There are many good examples of both political commitment and effective building sector policies saving energy at negative costs worldwide, but significant upscaling and more ambitious peformance targets can only prevent the lock-in. The net zero energy concept as a political target can be controversial

and may not be the most environmentally or cost-effective solution

Thank you for your

attention

Diana Ürge-VorsatzCenter for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy

(3CSEP), CEU

http://3csep.ceu.hu www.globalenergyassessment.org

Email: [email protected]

Trust me – they just keep promising this global warming; they just keep promising; but they won’t keep this promise of theirs either…

http://3csep.ceu.hu/

http://3csep.ceu.hu/

http://www.globalenergyassessment.org/

mailto:[email protected]

Supplementary slides


SlideTitle

● Subheading– first level bullet

● second level bullet– third level bullet

» fourth level bullet


Key messages


Summary of key messages:The lock-in risk

● Lock-in risk: If building codes are introduced universally and energy retrofits accelerate, but policies do not mandate state-of-the-art efficiency levels, substantial energy consumption, and corresponding GHG emissions, can be “locked in” for many decades. Such a scenario results in an app. 32% increase in global energy use by 2050 from 2005, as opposed to a 46% decrease – i.e. an app. 80% lock-in effect if expressed in 2005 global building heating and cooling energy use.

● This points to the importance of building-shell related policies being very ambitious about the efficiency levels they mandate (or encourage), and to the major lock-in risk present policies, typically under the banner of climate change mitigation, energy security and other public goals, are taking us to.


The importance of behavioural factors:

Electricity consumption of air-conditioning in 25 flats of a residential building in Beijing

Source: Building Energy Research Center, 2009

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Elec

tric

ity u

se o

f air-

cond

ition

ers

kWh/

(m2 y

r)

No. of flats


The role of culture and behaviour underexamined


Significant risk of the lock-in effect in all regions● This points to the importance of building shell-related policies being ambitious about

the efficiency levels they mandate (or encourage), and to the fact that present policies present a major lock-in risk

Energy end-use: Buildings Diana Urge-Vorsatz, CLA, Chapter 10 Director Center for Climate Change and...

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