Energy Efficiency Training Week - International Energy … · Toolkit: Building ... Energy...

© OECD/IEA 2016 © OECD/IEA 2015

Energy Efficiency Training Week

Where to start: Energy efficiency potential in buildings

Buildings: Session 2

Buildings energy efficiency sessions done in partnership with:

#EnergyEfficientWorld

sustainable energy partnerships

© OECD/IEA 2016

1. Where to start: Understanding building energy use

2. Where to start: Energy efficiency potential in buildings

3. Toolkit: Building technologies for low energy buildings

4. Toolkit: Linking buildings energy efficiency policy to investments and finance

5. Toolkit: Building energy codes and standards

6. Toolkit: Building energy efficiency policies

7. What are the steps: Set targets and develop policies

8. Did it work: Evaluating the multiple benefits of energy efficiency in buildings

9. Did it work: Tracking progress with energy efficiency indicators

10. Energy Efficiency Quiz: Understanding energy efficiency in buildings

Energy Efficiency Training Week Buildings: Program


© OECD/IEA 2016

Trainers: John Dulac and Adam Hinge

Purpose: To teach professionals in the emerging economies about basic fundamentals of the energy efficiency potential in buildings. This will include information on IEA’s scenarios analysis modelling.

Scenario: You have been asked to create new policies for energy efficient buildings. How do you determine where to start?

Energy Efficiency Training Week (Buildings) 2. Where to start: Energy efficiency potential in buildings


© OECD/IEA 2016

Buildings Sector Energy Demand

Global buildings final energy consumption, 1990-2013

Source: IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances, 2015

Global building energy intensities have improved since 1990, but not enough to offset buildings sector growth.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

kWh/m

2

EJ

Coal

Oil

Commercial heat

Electricity

Natural gas

Solar

Biofuels

Residential intensity

Non-residential

intensity

© OECD/IEA 2016 Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016

Building Energy Outlook to 2050

Global buildings energy demand growth to 2050


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Historic 6DS

Billion

m2

EJ

Heating Cooling Water Lighting

Cooking Appliances Other Floor area

Global building energy consumption could increase by 50% to 2050 without assertive energy efficiency action.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Historic 6DS

Billion

m2

EJ



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Historic 6DS

Billion

m2

EJHeating Cooling Water Lighting


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Historic 6DS

Billion

m2

EJ



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Historic 6DS

Billion

m2

EJ



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Historic 6DS

Billion

m2

EJ



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Historic 6DS

Billion

m2

EJ



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Historic 6DS

Billion

m2

EJ



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Historic 6DS

Billion

m2

EJ



© OECD/IEA 2016

Buildings Sector Energy Demand

Over 85% of projected growth in building energy demand to 2050 is expected to occur outside the OECD.

OECD

Eurasia

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

Non-OECD Asia

Others

Share of Buildings Energy Growth

2013-2050

13%

6%

4%

8%

13%

54%

2%

22 22

30

19

21

Buildings Final Energy Demand in 2050 (PJ)

United

States

Europe Japan

(5.1)

Canada

(3.2)

15

14

Mexico

(1.3)

Other Latin

America (3.8)

Brazil

(2.4)

Middle East

Africa

Eurasia China

India Southeast

Asia

Global buildings energy demand growth in 2050

Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016

© OECD/IEA 2016

Energy efficiency potential by sector

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012


Global Energy Efficiency Potential

80%+ of existing buildings efficiency potential remains untapped!

© OECD/IEA 2016 Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016

Building Energy Savings Potential

Global buildings energy savings potential to 2050


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20019

90

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Fina

l En

ergy D

eman

d (EJ)

Other (services)AppliancesCookingLightingWater heatingSpace coolingSpace heating

Buildings energy demand is cut by 1/3 in 2050 in the 2DS.

~60% of energy reductions coming from heating and cooling needs.

6DS

2DS

© OECD/IEA 2016

Building Emissions Pathways

Global emissions trajectories to 2050 (direct & indirect)

Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 #EnergyEfficientWorld

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GtC

O2

6DS

Indirect savings(power sector)

Energy efficiency

Fuel switching

Renewables

2DS

Energy efficiency accounts for 1/3 of emissions reductions in buildings – supporting decarbonisation of the power sector.

© OECD/IEA 2016

Getting It Right from the Start

Typical lifetimes of energy consuming buildings stock and equipment

Source: IEA Buildings Code Policy Pathway 2013 #EnergyEfficientWorld

© OECD/IEA 2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Total Floo

r Area (billion

m2 )

New Stock (Compliant)

New Stock (Non-Compliant)

Refurbished Stock

Historic Stock

Total

Global residential floor area growth and opportunities

Assertive building codes for new buildings are critical.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Total Floo

r Area (billion

m2 )



Refurbished Stock

Historic Stock

Total

Building Envelope Efficiency


© OECD/IEA 2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Total Floo

r Area (billion

m2 )



Refurbished Stock

Historic Stock

Total

Global residential floor area growth to 2050 (6DS)

In a 6DS world, we would expect continued high levels of non-compliance in construction and marginal retrofits of existing stock.



© OECD/IEA 2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Total Floo

r Area (billion

m2 )



Refurbished Stock

Historic Stock

Total

Global residential floor area growth to 2050 (2DS)

In a 2DS world, far smaller levels of non-compliance and high levels of deep retrofits will contribute to significant energy reductions.



© OECD/IEA 2016

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Energy Savings (6D

S to 2

DS) by C

ontribution

(EJ)

Intensity Improvement

Equipment Efficiency

Technology Switching

Demand Efficiency

Technology Efficiency

Technology Choice

Example: lighting efficiency potential.

What are the right levers to drive building energy savings?


Building Equipment Efficiency

© OECD/IEA 2016

Demand efficiency: building design and occupant behaviour can have considerable impact on energy consumption.



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Average Ligh

ting

Deman

d Intensity

(kW

h/m

2 )

Historical

6DS

2DS

Source: Sage Electrochromics

© OECD/IEA 2016



Source: US DOE 2012

Technology efficiency: many (if not most) energy efficient building technologies are already on the market. Additional gains for many technologies are promising.

© OECD/IEA 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015

2025

2035

2045

2025

2035

2045

2025

2035

2045

6DS 4DS 2DS

Equipm

ent Share (%

)

Halogen

LED

CFL

Fluorescent

Incandescent

Oil lamp

Technology choice: many (if not most) energy efficient building technologies are already on the market. Need the right policy/market signals to increase adoption




© OECD/IEA 2016

Energy efficiency potential

Looking for answers…

1. Why is it important to know the potential?

2. What is energy efficiency potential in buildings?

3. How big is it?

4. How to estimate it?

5. What are the challenges?


© OECD/IEA 2016

(Scientist)


© OECD/IEA 2016

Potential to reduce final energy use for space heating & cooling through energy efficiency

Source: IPCC 2014 #EnergyEfficientWorld

Global energy efficiency potential

© OECD/IEA 2016


Efficiency is not just technology

Source: Tianzhen Hong, Llawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2013

Occupant and Operator Behavior is critical: the impact of day to day comfort and building operations decisions can have a very dramatic impact on energy consumption

© OECD/IEA 2016

George E.P. Box

( Statistician)


© OECD/IEA 2016

Energy efficiency potential modelling Building Energy Performance Scenarios

Source: GBPN

Free tool available for use globally from GBPN.

http://www.gbpn.org/databases-tools/mrv-tool/scenario-data-analysis


© OECD/IEA 2016

Energy efficiency potential modelling Example: 3CSEP-HEB & GBPN-BEPS model

Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency

Models: 3CSEP High Efficiency Buildings model & GBPN Building Energy

Performance Scenarios model

Considers buildings as complete systems rather than sums of components

• performance-based approach

Recognizes that

• State-of-the-art building energy performance can be achieved through a broad variety of designs and component combinations

• Systemic gains are important when buildings are optimised to very high energy performance, not typically captured by modelling buildings by components

• Best practice are selected from the energy performance and investment costs perspective

Assumes that

• Existing best practices become the standard (both in new construction AND renovation) after a certain transition time #EnergyEfficientWorld

© OECD/IEA 2016

Where do I start?

A few key questions…

Do you have data on energy consumed in residential buildings vs. non-residential?

Do you have data on the overall floor area stock, and annual new additions to the stock?

What portion of building energy is used in urban areas vs rural areas?


© OECD/IEA 2016


Building Stock Accounting

Example building stock accounting, Turin (Italy)

0

60

120

180

240

300

360

420

480

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Pre

-19

60

19

60

-80

19

80

-20

05

20

05

-14

Pre

-19

60

19

60

-80

19

80

-20

05

20

05

-14

Pre

-19

60

19

60

-80

19

80

-20

05

20

05

-14

Pre

-19

60

19

60

-80

19

80

-20

05

20

05

-14

Multifamily high-rise Multifamily low-rise Single family attached Single family detached

kWh

/m2

Mill

ion

m2 Building

stock

Heatingintensity


© OECD/IEA 2016

What is your building stock, and how is it changing?

Key questions…

Where is the most energy consumption? Residential? Urban?

What sectors are growing most rapidly?

Do you see big increases in certain end-uses (air-conditioning)?


© OECD/IEA 2016

Data Quality

For good policy making, valid data is critical:

1. How good is energy consumption data?

2. Building stock and floor area data?

3. End-use estimates?


© OECD/IEA 2016


What portion of total (final) energy use is consumed in buildings?

Source: IEA World Energy Balances and Statistics, 2015

Buildings Share of Final Energy Consumption, 2013

Industry, 37%

Transport, 27%

Other, 6% Coal, 4%

Oil, 10%

Natural Gas, 21%

Electricity, 29%

Commercial Heat, 5%

Renewables, 31%

Buildings, 30%

© OECD/IEA 2016


Of total building energy consumption, what portion residential? Non-residential?


Residential & Non-Residential Building Energy Use, 2013

30%

2%

20%4%

33%

11%

Residential, 89 EJ

Space heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Cooking Appliances Other

44%

10%

12%

12%

22%

Non-Residential, 35 EJ

© OECD/IEA 2016


What fraction of buildings in your country are in urban areas? Rural areas?


Urban vs. Non-Urban Buildings Energy Demand

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

EJ

Non-Urban Buildings

Urban Non-Residential

Urban Residential

© OECD/IEA 2016

Scenario

You have been asked to create new policies for energy efficient buildings.

How do you determine where to start?

Energy Efficiency Training Week - International Energy … · Toolkit: Building ... Energy...

Documents

Transcript of Energy Efficiency Training Week - International Energy … · Toolkit: Building ... Energy...