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Transcript of Energy efficiency markets and the energy efficiency Final energy demand and energy demand if...

  • © OECD/IEA 2015

    Energy efficiency markets and the energy efficiency transition

    Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

    October 26, 2016

    Tyler Bryant, Project Manager @tyler_bryant2

    www.iea.org/eemr16

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    The Paris Agreement is in effect

    Submitted INDCs (1 October)

    GHGs flattened in 2014 even with 3% global economic growth – first time in 40 years

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    NDCs one step on the journey but we need a sustainable energy transition

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    INDC Scenario

    World Energy Outlook Climate Special Report 2015

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

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    The global challenge: Climbing down the mountain

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    mandatory.” Ed Viesturs

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    Two transitions from 1850 to 1970, each taking over 40 years to increase 5% to 25% of supply

    To do this we’ll need a sustainable energy transition

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16 Data from Smil (2010) and IEA (2015)

    In 1970, the world was ready for a third transition

    To do this we’ll need a sustainable energy transition

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    But things have been relatively stable since 1970

    Data from Smil (2010) and IEA (2015)

    To do this we’ll need a sustainable energy transition

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    Transitioning energy supply appears to be headed in right direction

     Low carbon energy sources grow from 20 to 50% of primary energy supply

     Variable renewable electricity grows from 7 to 20%

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    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    Energy efficiency savings greater than primary renewable electricity

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    Energy efficiency provides savings by 2050 in the 2DS, being comparable to the final energy use of China and the EU combined in 2012.

    Is renewable energy the savior then? IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    So what’s missing?

     The sustainable energy transition is more fundamentally about how we use energy

     The age of rapid primary energy supply growth must end to achieve climate targets

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

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    Rate of decoupling energy use from GDP needs to be more than doubled over the next four decades

    The sustainable energy transition is an energy efficiency transition

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    Energy Efficiency Market Report

     The IEA’s flagship efficiency report

     Change conversation to infrastructure and energy policy

     Emphasize investment, markets, and importance of efficiency in the system

     Backward looking –real evidence and impacts

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    Energy intensity is improving but not fast enough

    Global annual energy intensity gains

    In 2015, global intensity improved by three times the average of the last decade, despite a low price environment. Intensity gains need to increase to 2.6% to achieve our climate goals.

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    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    Good policy delivers the benefits of energy efficiency

     Energy efficiency is the one energy resource all countries possess in abundance, and is an essential part of delivering all energy goals.

     Global energy efficiency gains are accelerating, even in the current low price environment.

     2015 saw global investment in energy efficiency grow 6% to $221 billion.

     Energy efficiency is now at a scale to influence global energy markets, and is becoming more central in climate change responses.

     Strong Government policies are essential to deliver the energy efficiency improvements the world requires.

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16 © IEA 2016

    1. Energy efficiency core indicators

    2. Energy efficiency in China

    3. Policy drivers of the efficiency market

    4. The impact of changing energy prices

    5. Energy efficiency investment

    6. The energy efficiency services market

    EEMR 2016 Contents

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    Energy efficiency is energy supply

    Final energy demand and energy demand if efficiency had not improved over 2000 levels in IEA countries

    Without efficiency gains energy demand in 2015 in IEA countries would have grown by 1% and would have been higher than the 2007 peak. Instead, energy demand is 1% below 2000 levels.

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    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    In China, energy demand is decoupling from economic growth

     Policies implemented in the 11th Five-Year Plan appears to be the

    key factor driving efficiency.

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     Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) growth in 2015 smallest since 1999

    a significant change from the average over the last decade.

    11th FYP

    implemented

    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

  • © OECD/IEA 2015 www.iea.org/eemr16

    In China, efficiency and renewables are decarbonizing its energy system

    Primary energy savings from efficiency gains since 2000 and renewable energy supply in China

    Dramatic progress on energy efficiency saved 350 million tonnes of coal in 2014. Energy savings are as large as China’s renewable energy supply.

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    IEEJ:November 2016 © IEEJ2016

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    The scale of the challenge in China

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