Energy Efficiency for Urban Transport - Continuing...
Transcript of Energy Efficiency for Urban Transport - Continuing...
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2011/SOM1/EWG/WKSP3/017 Agenda Item: III-C-4(e)
Energy Efficiency for Urban Transport - Continuing Programs in Distributed Transit
Submitted by: Toyota
APEC Cooperative Energy Efficiency Design for Sustainability - Energy Efficient
Urban Passenger TransportationSan Francisco, United States
14–16 September 2011
APEC USA 2011Energy Efficiency For Urban Transport
APEC USA 2011Energy Efficiency For Urban Transport
Bill Reinert
Advanced Technology Group,
Toyota Motor Sales, USA, INC
September 15, 2011
Continuing Programs in Distributed Transit
AgendaAgenda
Future Energy
Future Vehicles
Future Society
Today Today –– 22 4 Additional by 20504 Additional by 2050
New York, NY18.65M
Los Angeles, CA12.22M
2006 citymayors.com
Atlanta, GA
Miami, FLDallas –Fort Worth, TX
Chicago, IL
On One Hand: Growing Megacities (>10M)On One Hand: Growing Megacities (>10M)
On the Other Hand: Populations are SpreadingOn the Other Hand: Populations are Spreading
2/3 of US jobs, 3/4 economic output, are within 35 mi of 98 largest central business districts (CBD). Increasingly, they aremoving to a ring 10-35 mi from CBD. (Brookings Inst.)
Geographic Distribution of Job Share 98 Metro Areas, 1998 - 2006
Most Commutes Are Suburb to SuburbMost Commutes Are Suburb to Suburb
Metropolitan Flow Map (Millions of Commuters)
Source Brookings Inst.
Today’s Commuting Distances
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Per
cen
t o
f C
om
mu
ters
0-5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 >44
Miles
One-way Commuting Distance
Within Range of EV
68%
Beyond Range of EV32%
Implication: A substantial segment of Implication: A substantial segment of commuters is unavailable to an EV alternativecommuters is unavailable to an EV alternative
Trade19%
Financial, Insurance, Real
Estate5%
Services41%
Government11%
Other24%
148% Increase148% Increaseover 1994 Levelsover 1994 Levels
Implication: Increasing Implication: Increasing flexibility/mobility will be flexibility/mobility will be needed at workplaceneeded at workplace
By 2020By 2020Economic ForecastEconomic Forecast
(% of Total Jobs)(% of Total Jobs)
At least 5 Days/Week forBusiness
Less than 5 Days/Week forBusiness
At least 5 Days/Week forPersonal Needs
Less than 5 Days/Week forPersonal Needs
Mixture of Personal & Business
Don't Needa Vehicle at Work
64% 36%
Need a Vehicleat Work
A Need for Mobility at Work
TodayToday
Implication: Growing dissatisfaction Implication: Growing dissatisfaction with commuting will not lead with commuting will not lead increased use of conventional increased use of conventional alternativesalternatives
Congestion Continues to Grow
Sources of CongestionSources of Congestion
Urban Mass Transport Solutions Require Last Mile ConsiderationsUrban Mass Transport Solutions Require Last Mile Considerations
Personal Rapid TransitLight Rail
Future Trends will Focus on Distributed Mass TransitFuture Trends will Focus on Distributed Mass Transit
• Congestion and air pollution is increasing • Traditional solutions (i.e. more highways) are not
sufficient• Current mass transit doesn’t work in many American
cities• Traditional rail service doesn’t match with
suburban commuting patterns• Bus service inconvenient and has social stigma
attached to it• New Paradigm needed: Distributed Mass
Transportation
• Congestion and air pollution is increasing • Traditional solutions (i.e. more highways) are not
sufficient• Current mass transit doesn’t work in many American
cities• Traditional rail service doesn’t match with
suburban commuting patterns• Bus service inconvenient and has social stigma
attached to it• New Paradigm needed: Distributed Mass
Transportation
Improving Transportation SystemsImproving Transportation Systems
Distributed Mass Transit
“Station” Cars“Station” Cars
• Typically, 2-seat battery electric vehicle
• Extension of mass transit• Provides instant, distributed
mobility• Ideal for commuting and most
local trips
• Each station car is used multiple times per day by different subscribers
• Typically, 2-seat battery electric vehicle
• Extension of mass transit• Provides instant, distributed
mobility• Ideal for commuting and most
local trips
• Each station car is used multiple times per day by different subscribers
Station cars Station cars alonealone are not sufficient: integration into a highare not sufficient: integration into a high--tech transportation tech transportation ““systemsystem”” is criticalis critical
Card SystemMembership card for vehicle use
Reservation Management System
Reservations from home and office PCs
Depot Management SystemConstant status checks on each vehicle’s battery charge
Real-time Information SystemUse of traffic information services
Location Management System
Managing location information on vehicle in use
Charge Billing SystemMember billing
Station Car Systems: Enabling Technologies
Station Car Flexibility Addresses Transit Rider Concerns
• User Advantages• Flexibility • Real alternative• “Free time”• No extra car
• Community Advantages
• Air Pollution
• Traffic Congestion
• User Advantages• Flexibility • Real alternative• “Free time”• No extra car
• Community Advantages
• Air Pollution
• Traffic Congestion
Potential Station Car MarketsPotential Station Car Markets
BostonBoston
New YorkNew York
BaltimoreBaltimore PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia
WashingtonWashingtonCincinnatiCincinnati
ChicagoChicago
ClevelandCleveland
AtlantaAtlanta
MiamiMiami
DallasDallas
DenverDenverSalt LakeSalt LakeCityCity
PortlandPortland
SeattleSeattle
SacramentoSacramento
San JoseSan Jose
San FranciscoSan Francisco
Los AngelesLos Angeles
San DiegoSan Diego
NE CORRIDORNE CORRIDOR
San DiegoSan Diego--Los Angeles RAILLos Angeles RAIL
FloridaFloridaRAILRAIL
20 Rail Corridor Systems
New Urban Mobility – EV ConceptNew Urban Mobility – EV Concept
Range: 50 milesCharge Time:~ 2.5hr/7.5hr (220V/110V)
2012
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Fox Business 2008 (70 Campuses); Innovative Mobility Research 2007 (current members), CNW Research 2008 (8 million forecast)
Members (000s)
200k+ 200k+ CurrentCurrent
MembersMembers
U.S. Car Sharing Growth ForecastU.S. Car Sharing Growth Forecast
8 mm 8 mm PotentialPotential
2007 ~2020
Currently at 70+ U.S. college campusesCurrently at 70+ U.S. college campuses
Car Sharing is GrowingCar Sharing is Growing
Technology Enables New PossibilitiesTechnology Enables New Possibilities
Wireless Technology Promotes Wireless Technology Promotes Modal DiversityModal Diversity
ConvergenceConvergence of:of:•• Wireless ComputingWireless Computing•• Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics•• TransportationTransportation••TelematicsTelematics•• Home Energy ManagementHome Energy Management•• EcoEco--impact Metricsimpact Metrics
Recommend Recommend optimal modeoptimal mode to minimize price minimize price &
travel timetravel time
Eco Technology Conserves Eco Technology Conserves Energy, Reduces COEnergy, Reduces CO22
Locate
Charge Station
Locate Mass Transit
Zipcar Available? Smarter
Charging Stations
Vehicle to
Grid
Smart Grid
PEV ENABLERSPEV ENABLERS
MonitorMonitor
Charge StatusCharge Status
Transition in Personal MobilityTransition in Personal Mobility
Mobility based on Personal Automobile
Mobility based on Multiple Modes
• Car Sharing
• Personal Rapid Transit
• Mass Rapid Transit
• Station Cars
Transition will require:
1. Real-time Communication from Vehiclea) to customer (web portal, Smart Phone)b) to utilitiesc) to home energy management system
2. Shift to other modes of personal transportation
3. Partnerships
Now Future
AgendaAgenda
Future Energy
Future Vehicles
Future Society
Preliminary View of World Oil SupplyPreliminary View of World Oil Supply
Non-Opec crude oil
Opec crude oil
NGLs
Canadian tar sands
Biofuels
Spare capacity
Source Peter Wells
Reduction of Spare Capacity Opens the Door for Price Spikes
Reduction of Spare Capacity Opens the Door for Price Spikes
Supply
Price induced “new” supply or accelerated supply
Demand
Price spikes
Price
Supply
Price induced “new” supply or accelerated supply
Demand
Price spikes
Price
Source Peter Wells
AgendaAgenda
Future Energy
Future Vehicles
Future Society
There is no Single Solution Plug in Hybrids For Medium Distance Commuting
Operation SpecificationsOperation Specifications
Electric Vehicle Charger Assembly
Engine
Electric Motor Electric Vehicle Charger Cable Assembly
HV Battery
AC 110 V to 220 V
Household Outlet
Max. OutputMax. OutputEngineEngine 98 HP (73 kW)98 HP (73 kW)
MG2MG2 80 HP (60 kW)80 HP (60 kW)
In EV Driving Mode
Max. Speed Approx. 62 mph (100 km/h)Approx. 62 mph (100 km/h)
Range Approx. 13 miles (21 km )Approx. 13 miles (21 km )
Power SourcePower Source Household Electrical OutletsHousehold Electrical Outlets
Charging TimeCharging Time Approximately 3 hrs (110 V)Approximately 3 hrs (110 V)
HV Battery CoolingHV Battery Cooling
Additional fans
New ductwork
42 Temperature Sensors
Additional fansAdditional fans
New ductworkNew ductwork
42 Temperature Sensors42 Temperature Sensors
Intake Air Ducts
HV Battery Cooling Blowers
HV Battery Temperature Sensors (for HV Battery Pack)
HV Battery Temperature Sensors (for Intake Air Duct)
Sub 2 Main Sub1DC/DC
Converter Cooling Blower
Challenges: “What the Market will Bear”Challenges: “What the Market will Bear”
%
%
%
%
%
%
Prius
PriusPHV
Mass Market
Source: PIN
2008 Midsize Car Prices
0 --2500
5000 --7500
10,000 --12,500
15,000 --17,500
20,000 --22,500
25,000 --27,500
30,000 --32,500
35,000 --37,500
40,000 --42,500
45,000 --47,500
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Options for reducing PEVcost:
• Reduce battery cost per capacity• Reduce All Electric Range• Expand the Usable SOC
Current/Developing Cost => even 10 mile AER is Too expensive- 70% of total cost is from the battery cells - Cost must be reduced – not just cells, but the entire PEV system - Must consider the most balanced all electric range
Cost of PEV System
Cell Cost for 10 mile AER
Battery Package w/o Cells
Plug-in additional(Charger, Inlet, Cable)
Battery Energy on board
~50% useable energyin
actual operation
Challenges: Battery CostsChallenges: Battery Costs
0 60 12020 100
50
100
40 80 140
Source: 1990 Nationwide personal transportation survey
(%)Cumulative percentage ofpersonal automobile trips
Cumulative percentage oftravel distance energy
Approx. 20%
Average Daily Travel Distance per Vehicle (miles)
U.S. Driving Patterns
PHV Role: EV Mode For Short Distance HV Mode for Longer TripsPHV Role: EV Mode For Short Distance HV Mode for Longer Trips
Approx. 35%
80% Trips
Ubiquitous Charging Increases Electric VMTUbiquitous Charging Increases Electric VMT
Challenges: Key Infrastructure Issues RemainChallenges: Key Infrastructure Issues Remain
Vehicle to Grid Communications
Electric Utilities have excess electricity generation capacity during off-peak hours – typically at night
Even during off-peak times, however, there is insufficient electricity distributioncapacity for many PEVs to charge at the same time
Communication between vehicle and “grid” is necessary to avoid negative impacts to distribution system (such as local outages)
Level 2 Charging Equipment
The majority of customers, particularly larger-capacity BEVs (50+ miles), will need/want L2 (220V) charging at home and business
The installation of L2 charging equipment is extremely challenging: high cost, lengthy time period, complex interactions among City, Utilities, Contractor, Customer, OEM and Dealer
Resolving L2 installation issues will be critical for EV market adoption
Last Mile Grid System not Developed
Old Transformers Cannot Accommodate Multiple EVs Charging in OneNeighborhood
Night Time Charging Limits Charging Hours
Public Charging Not Assured
According to DOE Targets Fuel Cells Provide Most Efficient Packaging Over 100 Miles
According to DOE Targets Fuel Cells Provide Most Efficient Packaging Over 100 Miles
Source: DOE
DurabilityDurability
Cruising Cruising RangeRange
Compactness & Compactness & High Power High Power
DensityDensity
High & Low High & Low Temperature Temperature PerformancePerformance
CostCost
Fuel Cell Vehicles for Longer TripsAnd Challenges for FC Vehicles
Fuel Cell Vehicles for Longer TripsFuel Cell Vehicles for Longer TripsAnd Challenges for FC VehiclesAnd Challenges for FC Vehicles
Over Time The Costs of Most Technologies Merge
Over Time The Costs of Most Technologies Merge
Source: DOE
20%
40%
5%10%
20%
30%25%
50% 50%
30%
20%
95%90%
72%
35%
20%
10%
35%
10%2%
1%
10%5%3%
15%
97%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040-2050
P HEV BEV/ FCV Conv HEV Conv Ga s
Strong Regulatory Push: Reduce CO2Strong Regulatory Push: Reduce CO2
CARB expects BEV/FCV sales volume to surpass conventional gas by 2035 and reach 30% of mix by 2040
However, the above vision does not achieve the 80% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2050; ZEVs will need to reach 100% of vehicle sales by 2040, to meet the 80% goal
CARB 2050 Vision
Sources: California Air Resources Board; “[ZEV] White Paper”
CARB Assumptions: Retail Price Increase Versus 2035 Hybrid
2035 Plug-in Hybrid (30 mile AER) $3,400
2035 Battery Electric (100 mile range) $5,500
2035 Fuel Cell $2,800
EV Costs vs CO2 ReductionEV Costs vs CO2 Reduction
Comparison of Vehicle Powertrain TechnologiesComparison of Vehicle Comparison of Vehicle PowertrainPowertrain TechnologiesTechnologies
Lifetime energy use breakdown
FC HEV PHEV-20 EV-40 Gas
Material production 17% 17% 20% 25% 11%
Vehicle assembly 3% 3% 4% 5% 2%
Fuel production / transport 10% 10% 9% 5% 12%
Vehicle operation 63% 63% 59% 54% 71%
Vehicle maintenance 3% 3% 3% 4% 2%
Vehicle disposal 4% 4% 5% 7% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Electricity HydrogenGasoline, Diesel, Biofuel, etc
Public transportPublic transportPrivate usePrivate use
ii--seriesseries
BicycleBicycleElectric welfare vehicle
Med/Large vehiclesMed/Large vehicles
ScooterScooter
Light vehicleLight vehicle
MicrobusMicrobus
City busCity bus
Delivery truckDelivery truck
Delivery Delivery vehicle vehicle
WingletWingletPMRPMR
HighHigh--Speed,Speed,LongLong--Distance DrivingDistance Driving
LowerLower--Speed,Speed,ShortShort--Distance DrivingDistance Driving
Highway drivingHighway drivingbetween citiesbetween cities
LowLow--Speed,Speed,InterInter--City DrivingCity Driving
MedMed--toto--High Speed,High Speed,MedMed--Distance DrivingDistance Driving
Large truckLarge truckVehicle SizeVehicle Size
FCV SectorFCV FCV
SectorSector
EV sector
EV EV sectorsector
Driving distance
ICE HV & PHV SectorICE HV &
PHV Sector
EV commuterEV commuter
MobilityMobility--basedbased VehicleVehicle--basedbased
PHEVPHEV
HVHV
Roles of EV/PHEV/FCVRoles of EV/PHEV/FCV
Thank you for your kind attentionThank you for your kind attention
Apply existing technologies in new waysApply existing technologies in new ways
Most of the technologies mentioned already exist, just not yet iMost of the technologies mentioned already exist, just not yet in the mobility n the mobility spacespace
For now smaller battery approaches are more cost effectiveFor now smaller battery approaches are more cost effective
Implies multiple charge periods throughout the dayImplies multiple charge periods throughout the day
Fuel Cells are rapidly maturingFuel Cells are rapidly maturing
Multiple solutions for rapidly changing circumstancesMultiple solutions for rapidly changing circumstances
PEVs and PEVs and FCsFCs both face significant infrastructure hurdles both face significant infrastructure hurdles
At the end of the day, customer is kingAt the end of the day, customer is king
All solutions must solve customers problems without creating newAll solutions must solve customers problems without creating new onesones
Charging solutions to manage the grid may be at odds with customCharging solutions to manage the grid may be at odds with customer er expectations.expectations.
SummarySummary