Energy Drivers for Emissions

7/28/2019 Energy Drivers for Emissions

1/32

Professor Nigel BrandonShell Chair Sustainable Development in Energy

EPSRC Energy Senior Research Fellow

Executive Director Energy Futures LabGO science Focal Point in Energy with China

www.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab

Energy Drivers for Emissions


2/32

Introduction

Energy Futures Lab

Global Energy Drivers and Trends.

Energy in the UK.

Conclusions.


3/32

The Energy Futures Lab Established in 2005 to promote and stimulate multi-disciplinary research in

energy at Imperial College. The EFL integrates across science, engineering,

policy and business in the energy sector.

Imperial College has a research budget of 30M pa for energy research, one

third from industry. We have around 370 energy projects and 600 research

staff and students undertaking energy research.

Energy Technologies

Fuel cells and hydrogen

Bioenergy

Solar

Carbon capture and storage

Oil and gas

Transmission and distribution

Transport

Nuclear fission and fusion

Combustion science and engineering

Integrating Themes

Energy systems engineeringPolicy

Environmental studies

Sustainability analysis

Economics

Energy in society

City type 459 City scenario

Land use

Energy resource flow

Service networks

Human activities

City type 459 City scenario

Land useLand use

Energy resource flow

Service networks

Human activities

Sustainability

factors



4/32

Global Energy Drivers: 1 Population Growth

2005

(million)2030

(million)

Canada 32 268 38 880

France 60 496 66 269

Germany 82 689 79 090

Italy 58 093 57 385

Japan 128 085 117 794

Russia 143 202 124 121

United Kingdom 59 668 65 895

United States 298 313 364 427

Brazil 186 405 233 884

China 1 315 844 1 438 394

India 1 103 371 1 489 653

Mexico 107 029 269 211

South Africa 47 432 52 958

World Total 6 464 750 8 246 665

World Population prospects: the 2006 revision, UN Dept. Economics and Social Affairs


5/32

Global Energy Drivers: 2 Energy Security

Rising Oil Prices.

Shift in power from energy consumers to energy

producers.

Link between energy, water and food. 400 million people in India have no access to

electricity.


6/32

Source: UK Energy Sector Indicators, 2008, DECC.

UK Energy Trade and consumption


7/32

PROJECTED EUROPEAN GAS BALANCE

0

200

400

600

800

1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030

billioncum

Production Net imports

Source: IEA


8/32

Global Energy Drivers: 3 Urbanisation

Population

(bill

ion)

Source: ARUP


9/32

Growth in Global Energy Demand

Source: RCEP (2000)


10/32

Global Energy Impact: CO2 emissions

Source: DTI (2002).Energy: its impact on the environment and society.


11/32

Global Energy Impact: 2 Pollution

Guangzhou, China, March 2008, ~15.00


12/32

In 2006, 283 out of 524 citiesrecorded acid rain:

198 cities at 25%

87 cities at 75%

6 cities at 100%

Acid rain: pH


13/32

Energy consumption in China is acceleratingThe increase in Chinas energy demand from 2002-05 equates to Japans annual energy use.105 GW of (mostly) coal fired power plant were built in 2006 (total UK capacity ~80GW).

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1978

1980

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Energyconsumpation(GTSCE)

China Statistical Yearbook 2007, National Bureau of Statistics of China, http://www.stats.gov.cn/

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro, nuclear

wind, biomass


14/32

Incremental increase in energy demand andenergy related CO2 emissions 2000-2006.

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, International Energy Agency


15/32

Chinas energy consumption per capita is low


toep

ercapita


16/32

Human development and energy use

A. Pasternak, Global Energy Futures and Human Development: A Framework forAnalysis, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory rep. no. UCRL-ID-140773 (2000).


17/32

Car ownership in China was 24 cars for every 1000 citizens in 2006, and will increase to 40 cars

for every 1000 citizens by 2010. By contrast, the US has 765 vehicles per 1000 (2002 data), while

Europe has an average of about 300 vehicles per 1000.

Source: Green Car Congress, http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/05/percapita_car_o.html

Source:Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Centre

Transportation accounts for40% ofannual oil consumption now and isincreasing sharply.

China is already the third-largest car market in the world. The National Development and Reform

Commission predicted that 55 million vehicles will be running on Chinas roads by 2010. This

number will increase to 370 million by 2030.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1

00MT

Oil Demand

Domestic production

Rising Transport Demand in China


18/32

Global energy demand continues to rise

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1971 2002 2010 2020 2030

milliontonnes

oilequivalen

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass and Waste Other renewables

IEA World Energy Outlook

f


19/32

Major investment in new energy infrastructure

$22 Trillion of investment in energy infrastructure is needed out to 2030 to meet demand.

Cumulative Investment in EnergyInfrastructure 2006-2030



20/32

UK: Share of fuels contributing to primary energy supply



21/32

The size of the challenge: a potential scenario toreach 15% renewable energy by 2020 in the UK

Source: BERR UK Renewable energy strategy consultation, June (2008).


22/32

UK: Energy consumption by sector



23/32

UK: Energy consumption by transport type



24/32

UK: Average new car CO2 emissionsand Car use per person

Source: Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency; Department for Transport


25/32

Source: Derived from BREHOMES, taken from the Domestic Energy Fact File.Building Research Establishment

UK: Domestic energy consumption


26/32

UK: Ownership of central heating

Source: GfK Home Audit from the Domestic Energy Fact File, Building Research Establishment.


27/32

UK: Carbon dioxide emissions on an IPCCbasis and measurements towards targets



28/32

UK: Sulphur dioxide emissions by sector


Examples of Energy Technology Development at


29/32

Examples of Energy Technology Development atImperial College: Fuel Cells, Bioenergy and Solar

Fuel Cell Programme

Basic materials and device research CeresPower spun out in 2001; now with

70 employees and partnership with British

Gas to create domestic fuel cell CHP

Units will reduce household CO2

emissions by 20%

Translated into a low CO2, low energy

technique to produce biofuel naturally.

Bioenergy Programme

Plant biology, microbiology,

biotechnology and systems process

engineering.

Solar ProgrammePhotosynthesis, photochemistry,

organic and nano-materials, device

physics.

Targetting low cost

organic solar cells -Tomorrows PV.

A vision for direct

solar production of

hydrogen and other

fuels Artificial Leaf.


30/32

PLANET 2050

ALL-

ELECTRICBUILDINGS

ELECTRICMOBILITY

Grantham Institutefor Climate Change

LOWCARBON

ELECTRICITY

SUPPLY

BIOMASSBIOFUELS

HYDROGENECONOMY

CO2FROM THE

AIR

PLANET2050

ELECTRIC FUTURES

PLANET 2050 will explore how to deliver 80% cuts in net CO2 emissions and beyond

quicklyand without excessive costs through exploiting advanced technology

and an integrated system approach.

LOWCARBON

PRODUCTION

Programme forLow And Negative Emission Technologies for2050

C l i


31/32

Conclusions

In the near term we need to rapidly deploy the technologies we have

available today, both for energy demand reduction and for energy generation.

But we will need to develop new technologies, behaviours and businessmodels to meet our 2050 targets.

We must explore a wide range of options for example the large-scale use of

low-carbon electricity could help achieve the 80% reduction in carbon emissions by

2050. But the scientific and engineering challenges associated with this are

significant.

To develop breakthrough technologies we need to support energy R&D&D noting

that public funding for energy research has more than halved globally in real terms

since 1980.

We need to understand how to manage the transition in our energy economyat Imperial we will explore this through our new Planet 2050 programme.

Many areas of the energy sector are short of critical skills Universities have

an important role to play in attracting, educating and retaining the very best

young scientists and engineers to the energy sector.


32/32

Thank you

[email protected]


Energy Drivers for Emissions

Documents

Transcript of Energy Drivers for Emissions