Energy, development and health futures in poorer countries
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Transcript of Energy, development and health futures in poorer countries
Energy, development and health futures in poorer countries
Adrian Renton. Director IHHD
Background• A 1999 World Bank (WB) report claimed that GDP growth 1960-
1990 accounted for only 15% of concomitant growth in life expectancy in developing countries.
• These findings were used repeatedly by WHO to support a policy shift away from promoting social and economic development, towards vertical technology-driven programmes.
• I replicated the WB report using the Bank’s 2005 datasets, providing a new assessment of the relative contribution of economic growth.
• I then combined the analysis with projections on energy use and economic growth to assess how many counties would be anticipated to have achieved Millenium development goals at different points in the future.
Life expectancy at birth and under five mortality rate: 1960 and 2000
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0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Per Capita GDP (Constant 1995 $)
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
at b
irth
(yea
rs)
-50
0
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Und
er-fi
ves
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talit
y pe
r 1,0
00 li
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irths
Life Expectancy at Birth 1960Life Expectancy at Birth 2000Under-fives Mortality Rate 1960Under-fives Mortality Rate 2000
For GDP = $6,000 Life expectancy is 10 years greater in 2000 than 1960
For GDP = $6,000: Under-fives mortality is smaller by 5 per 1000 live births in 2000 than than 1960
WHO model and my model
itt
ttititiit utimeALRGDPHM
1990
1975
.)()ln()ln(
World Bank Model
My Model
itititt
tittt
titt
tttititiit
uALRGDPtimeALRtimeGDP
timeALRGDPHM
).ln().ln(.).ln(.
.)()ln()ln(
1990
1975
1990
1975
1990
1975
Interaction Terms
Estimates from regression with interaction termsCoefficient Estimates: Wang and Jamison Coefficient Estimates : Current Analysis
Dependent Variables Under-five mortalityLife Expectancy (female)
Life Expectancy (males) Under-five mortality
Life Expectancy (female)
Life Expectancy (males)
β p β p β p β p β p β pIndependent Variables
Intercept 8.11 2.85 2.67 5.32 3.48 3.48GDP -0.38 0.14 0.15 0.02 0.67 0.06 0.05 0.0002Education -0.53 0.23 0.16 0.002 0.73 0.01 0.01
1965 -0.13 0.71 0.08 0.44 0.10 0.311970 -0.29 0.44 0.12 0.23 0.20 0.0471975 -0.21 0.58 0.10 0.34 0.17 0.086 0.003 0.97 -0.002 0.971980 0.06 0.89 0.11 0.30 0.19 0.051 0.44 0.070 -0.03 0.65 -0.02 0.741985 0.78 0.07 0.05 0.64 0.14 0.19 -0.09 0.21 -0.07 0.23
1990 2.17 -0.20 0.084 -0.05 0.62 1.33 -0.16 0.024 -0.14 0.0281995 1.37 -0.21 0.0031 -0.19 0.00422000 1.62 -0.33 -0.29
GDP-Education 0.05 0.0010 -0.02 -0.02 -.002 0.021 -0.0005 0.02 -0.0005 0.151
GDP- 65 0.01 0.81 -0.01 0.69 -0.01 0.53
GDP-70 0.03 0.52 -0.01 0.64 -0.02 0.20
GDP-75 0.03 0.52 -0.01 0.64 -0.02 0.20 0.01 0.13 0.01 0.11
GDP-80 0.02 0.74 0.00 NA -0.01 0.48 -0.10 0.019 0.02 0.02
GDP-85 -0.15 0.020 0.01
0.00 NA 0.03 0.33GDP-90 -0.38 0.05 0.0048 0.03 0.054 -0.28 0.05 0.05GDP-95 -0.29 0.06 0.06GDP-2000 -0.34 0.08 0.07
Dependent and independent variables were transformed into natural logarithms. Values in cells labelled β are the coefficient estimates. Values in cells labelled p are p values for β differs from 0. Where no p value is stated p < 0.0001. . Education indicator is Yrs of education among population over the age of 15 in Wang’s analysis and ALR in our analysis
Proportion of improvement attributable to GDP growth
Region
Interaction terms
Included
Change in average value
1970-2000
GDPs growth’s contribution : (as
proportion of predicted change)
GDP ( $)ALR F(M)
(%)
UFMR per
1,000LEF (Yrs)
LEM (Yrs)
Average (all regions ex ECA)Wang & J 1960-90 No 0.19 0.15 0.18Current Analysis 1970-2000 No 860-1262
36 [55]-67 [81] 0.16 0.17 0.14
Current Analysis 1970-2000 Yes 0.16 0.31 0.33
Under five mortality rate (UFMR); Life expectancy at birth in females (LEF); Life expectancy at birth in males (LEM), Adult literacy rate (ALR); in females (ALR F); in males (ALR M); Gross Domestic Product (GDP
Poorest countries : Predicted change in life expectancy at birth among females : 1970-2000
with and without 2% growth in GDP.
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0 200 400 600 800 1000
GDP in 1970 (constant 1995 $)
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
at B
irth
(fem
ale)
1970 : ALR =60%
2000 (No GDP Grow th)ALR = 60%
2000 (2% GDP Grow th)ALR = 60%
World energy resources and use
World Actual2002
World Projected
2030OECD Actual2002
OECD Projected
2030
Energy Use Megatons oil equivalent (mtoe)
Coal 2,389 3,601 1,095 1,192Oil 3,676 5,766 2,167 2,725Gas 2,190 4,130 1,173 1,830Nuclear 692 764 593 557Hydro 224 365 106 131Biomass 1,119 1,605 181 359Other renewables 55 256 33 159
Total 10,345 16,487 5,348 6,953
CO2 Emissions (Mega tons) 23,116 38,214 31,686 12,446Energy Intensity 0.21 0.19Annual Change Energy Intensity (%) -1.500 -1.2PPP GDP (Year 2000 constant $ ) 48,151 115,169 28,491 52,391Oil reserves at end of 2003 (btoe) 163Oil remaining total recoverable
resources (btoe) 359Gas reserves at end of 2003 (btoe) 212Gas remaining total recoverable resources (btoe) 352
Linking Energy use to Health outcomes
If we have i types of energy
Ei = Annual Energy Use (type i)I = Energy Intensity in ProductionPi = Proprotion of Energy contributed by type iEi = GDP . I . Pi So we can • use year on year projections of GDP growth, energy intensity and
proportion contributed by each energy type to calculate cumulative use. • Subtract this from current resource to estimate how much left in any
year• Use our regression model describing relationship between GDP and
Health outcomes to examine health trajectories.
Projected Health, GDP and Energy Indicators
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100000
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250000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Ener
gy In
tens
ity to
e / $
000
PPP
GD
P (2
000)
Afr
ica
PPP
GD
P pe
r cap
ita $
0,00
0 (2
000)
0.000
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400.000
Rem
aini
ng G
as/O
il (b
toe)
Ener
gy In
tens
ity (t
oe p
er $
1m)
PPP GDP Africa
PPP GDP World
Energy Intensity
Remaining Oil (btoe) Total Discoverable
Remaining Gas (btoe) Total Discoverable
Remaining Oil (btoe) Reserves
Remaining Gas(btoe) Reserves
World Energy Report:
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Year
Rem
aini
ng G
as/O
il (b
toe)
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Perc
ent c
ount
ries
achi
eved
Remaining Oil (btoe) Total Discoverable
Remaining Gas (btoe) Total Discoverable
Remaining Oil (btoe) Total Discoverable
Remaining Gas (btoe) Total Discoverable
Percent acheived Per Capita GDP $4,000
Percent achievedFemale life-expectancy of 65
Percent acheived Under five mortality rate < 50
Poorest 69 countries share of world GDP
Africa's ShareWorld GDP
Proportion of countries achieving stated levels in life-expectancy (female) and under five mortality, growth in share of world GDP of poorest countries and decline in gas and oil resources
Key Points1. WHO policy for vertical tech programmes based on
false assumptions2. Poorer countries may do worse healthwise with
developing technology
3. Technology . GDP interaction means that development of technology improves health of the richer countries more (increase health inequalites)
4. Only 50% countries hit Millennium Health Goals at point of exhaustion of existing conventional oil and gas reserves.