Energy, development and health futures in poorer countries

Adrian Renton. Director IHHD

Background

• A 1999 World Bank (WB) report claimed that GDP growth 1960-1990 accounted for only 15% of concomitant growth in life expectancy in developing countries.

• These findings were used repeatedly by WHO to support a policy shift away from promoting social and economic development, towards vertical technology-driven programmes.

• I replicated the WB report using the Bank’s 2005 datasets, providing a new assessment of the relative contribution of economic growth.

• I then combined the analysis with projections on energy use and economic growth to assess how many counties would be anticipated to have achieved Millenium development goals at different points in the future.

Life expectancy at birth and under five mortality rate: 1960 and 2000

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40

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60

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80

90

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

Per Capita GDP (Constant 1995 $)

Lif

e E

xp

ec

tan

cy

at

bir

th (

ye

ars

)

-50

0

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450

Un

de

r-fi

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liv

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s

Life Expectancy at Birth 1960

Life Expectancy at Birth 2000

Under-fives Mortality Rate 1960

Under-fives Mortality Rate 2000

For GDP = $6,000 Life expectancy is 10 years greater in 2000 than 1960

For GDP = $6,000: Under-fives mortality is smaller by 5 per 1000 live births in 2000 than than 1960

WHO model and my model

itt

ttititiit utimeALRGDPHM

1990

1975

.)()ln()ln(

World Bank Model

My Model

itititt

tittt

titt

tttititiit

uALRGDPtimeALRtimeGDP

timeALRGDPHM

).ln().ln(.).ln(.

.)()ln()ln(

1990

1975

1990

1975

1990

1975

Interaction Terms

Estimates from regression with interaction termsCoefficient Estimates: Wang and Jamison Coefficient Estimates : Current Analysis

Dependent Variables Under-five mortality

Life Expectancy (female)

Life Expectancy (males) Under-five mortality

Life Expectancy (female)

Life Expectancy (males)

β p β p β p β p β p β pIndependent Variables

Intercept 8.11 2.85 2.67 5.32 3.48 3.48

GDP -0.38 0.14 0.15 0.02 0.67 0.06 0.05 0.0002

Education -0.53 0.23 0.16 0.002 0.73 0.01 0.01

1965 -0.13 0.71 0.08 0.44 0.10 0.31

1970 -0.29 0.44 0.12 0.23 0.20 0.047

1975 -0.21 0.58 0.10 0.34 0.17 0.086 0.003 0.97 -0.002 0.97

1980 0.06 0.89 0.11 0.30 0.19 0.051 0.44 0.070 -0.03 0.65 -0.02 0.74

1985 0.78 0.07 0.05 0.64 0.14 0.19 -0.09 0.21 -0.07 0.23

1990 2.17 -0.20 0.084 -0.05 0.62 1.33 -0.16 0.024 -0.14 0.0281995 1.37 -0.21 0.0031 -0.19 0.00422000 1.62 -0.33 -0.29

GDP-Education 0.05 0.0010 -0.02 -0.02 -.002 0.021 -0.0005 0.02 -0.0005 0.151

GDP- 65 0.01 0.81 -0.01 0.69 -0.01 0.53

GDP-70 0.03 0.52 -0.01 0.64 -0.02 0.20

GDP-75 0.03 0.52 -0.01 0.64 -0.02 0.20 0.01 0.13 0.01 0.11

GDP-80 0.02 0.74 0.00 NA -0.01 0.48 -0.10 0.019 0.02 0.02

GDP-85 -0.15 0.020 0.01

0.00 NA 0.03 0.33

GDP-90 -0.38 0.05 0.0048 0.03 0.054 -0.28 0.05 0.05GDP-95 -0.29 0.06 0.06GDP-2000 -0.34 0.08 0.07

Dependent and independent variables were transformed into natural logarithms. Values in cells labelled β are the coefficient estimates. Values in cells labelled p are p values for β differs from 0. Where no p value is stated p < 0.0001. . Education indicator is Yrs of education among population over the age of 15 in Wang’s analysis and ALR in our analysis

Proportion of improvement attributable to GDP growth

Region

Interaction terms

Included

Change in average value

1970-2000

GDPs growth’s contribution : (as

proportion of predicted change)

GDP ( $)ALR F(M)

(%)

UFMR per

1,000LEF (Yrs)

LEM (Yrs)

Average (all regions ex ECA)

Wang & J 1960-90 No 0.19 0.15 0.18Current Analysis 1970-2000 No 860-1262

36 [55]-67 [81] 0.16 0.17 0.14

Current Analysis 1970-2000 Yes 0.16 0.31 0.33

Under five mortality rate (UFMR); Life expectancy at birth in females (LEF); Life expectancy at birth in males (LEM), Adult literacy rate (ALR); in females (ALR F); in males (ALR M); Gross Domestic Product (GDP

Poorest countries : Predicted change in life expectancy at birth among females : 1970-2000

with and without 2% growth in GDP.

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0 200 400 600 800 1000

GDP in 1970 (constant 1995 $)

Lif

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Bir

th (

fem

ale

)

1970 : ALR =60%

2000 (No GDP Grow th)ALR = 60%

2000 (2% GDP Grow th)ALR = 60%

World energy resources and use

World Actual2002

World Projected

2030OECD Actual2002

OECD Projected

2030

Energy Use Megatons oil equivalent (mtoe)

Coal 2,389 3,601 1,095 1,192Oil 3,676 5,766 2,167 2,725Gas 2,190 4,130 1,173 1,830Nuclear 692 764 593 557Hydro 224 365 106 131Biomass 1,119 1,605 181 359Other renewables 55 256 33 159

Total 10,345 16,487 5,348 6,953

CO2 Emissions (Mega tons) 23,116 38,214 31,686 12,446Energy Intensity 0.21 0.19Annual Change Energy Intensity (%) -1.500 -1.2PPP GDP (Year 2000 constant $ ) 48,151 115,169 28,491 52,391Oil reserves at end of 2003 (btoe) 163Oil remaining total recoverable

resources (btoe) 359Gas reserves at end of 2003 (btoe) 212Gas remaining total recoverable resources (btoe) 352

Linking Energy use to Health outcomes

If we have i types of energy

Ei = Annual Energy Use (type i)

I = Energy Intensity in ProductionPi = Proprotion of Energy contributed by type i

Ei = GDP . I . Pi

 So we can • use year on year projections of GDP growth, energy intensity and

proportion contributed by each energy type to calculate cumulative use. • Subtract this from current resource to estimate how much left in any

year• Use our regression model describing relationship between GDP and

Health outcomes to examine health trajectories.

Projected Health, GDP and Energy Indicators

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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

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erg

y In

ten

sity

to

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000

PP

P G

DP

(20

00)

Afr

ica

PP

P G

DP

per

cap

ita

$0,0

00 (

2000

)

0.000

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Rem

ain

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Gas

/Oil

(bto

e)E

ner

gy

Inte

nsi

ty (

toe

per

$1m

)

PPP GDP Africa

PPP GDP World

Energy Intensity

Remaining Oil (btoe) Total Discoverable

Remaining Gas (btoe) Total Discoverable

Remaining Oil (btoe) Reserves

Remaining Gas(btoe) Reserves

World Energy Report:

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Year

Rem

ain

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Gas

/Oil

(bto

e)

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Per

cen

t co

un

trie

s a

chie

ved

Remaining Oil (btoe) Total Discoverable

Remaining Gas (btoe) Total Discoverable

Remaining Oil (btoe) Total Discoverable

Remaining Gas (btoe) Total Discoverable

Percent acheived Per Capita GDP $4,000

Percent achievedFemale life-expectancy of 65

Percent acheived Under five mortality rate < 50

Poorest 69 countries share of world GDP

Africa's ShareWorld GDP

Proportion of countries achieving stated levels in life-expectancy (female) and under five mortality, growth in share of world GDP of poorest countries and decline in gas and oil resources

Key Points

1. WHO policy for vertical tech programmes based on false assumptions

2. Poorer countries may do worse healthwise with developing technology

3. Technology . GDP interaction means that development of technology improves health of the richer countries more (increase health inequalites)

4. Only 50% countries hit Millennium Health Goals at point of exhaustion of existing conventional oil and gas reserves.