ENERGY CAT – Supporting NYS

Energy Research

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• CFES Overview

• NY REV – Reforming the Energy Vision

• NY Cleantech Support Organizations

• Federal Cleantech Support

• Renewable Energy Outlook

• US Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) – State Goals

• NY Comparison to German Energiewende

• Lessons Learned – Solyndra, GE Durathon, Tesla

Presentation Outline

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CFES is a New York Science, Technology and Innovation (NYSTAR) funded Center for Advanced Technology (CAT):

• Collaborate with S/M/L energy companies on innovative research to create

economic development within New York State:

• Connect value added faculty expertise

• Provide access to world class research facilities

• Mentor partners on potential funding pathways – NYSERDA, SBIR, STTR

• Spur technology-based applied research in energy, co-fund with cost share

• Protect intellectual property of clients

• Promote technology transfer and licensing opportunities

• Provide economic impact to NYS: jobs, product revenues, investment…

CFES Mission

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New York State Centers for Advanced Technology (CAT) Technology Foci which hold significant potential to expand the NYS economy:

Leverage State funds to increase competitiveness of NYS companies

Microelectronics Nanotechnology

Energy Life Sciences Materials

Photonics Sensors

IT Manufacturing

CFES Partnering Across NY State

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– CAT Re-designated August 2015, 10 more years

– Sponsored Research $33 Million ($9M Industry)

– Over 75 Industry Partnerships formed – 90+ Projects

– $100+ Million in NYS Economic Impacts, 200 jobs

– Engaged 40+ RPI Faculty

– Education Experience for 136 Graduate Students, 22 Post Docs, 48 URP’s, 12 Energy Scholars (RPI)

– Two World Class CFES Labs • Energy Materials & Device Lab

• Distributive Energy Resources Simulation Integration Lab (DERSIL)

– RPI Facilities Collaboration: • Wind Tunnel; Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Lab, Lighting Research Center

• Two NSF Engineering Research Center’s : CURENT, LESA

• High Performance Computing; CASE Building Test-beds

2005-2016 CFES Highlights

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Benefits of Working with CFES: Faculty and Staff Expertise

Koratkar Bae Borca-Tasciuc

Ramanath Huang Borca-Tasciuc

Lu Dutta Lewis

Key Research Thrusts:

• Nanostructured Silicon Anodes for Li Ion Batteries

• Scale-able Graphene Manufacturing for Li Electrodes

• Novel Membrane Polymers for Fuel Cell Application

• Development of High ZT Thermoelectric Crystals

• Novel Glass Ceramic Composites

• Design of Up/Down Conversion PV Devices

• Electrostatic Energy Vibration Harvesting Devices

• Development of Luminescent Solar Concentrator

• Advanced Electrochemical Storage Materials

• Biaxial Semiconductor Films for Thin Film PV

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Benefits of Working with CFES: Faculty and Staff Expertise

Sun Chow Wang Guo

Narandran Dyson Amitay Karlicek

Simmons Bequette Chow Plawsky

Key Research Thrusts:

• Distributed Energy Resource Grid Integration

• Autonomous Energy Management & Control

• Wide Area PMU Monitoring & Control

• High Voltage DC Power Transmission

• Oil and Gas Process Refinement

• Advanced Lighting Systems and Applications

• Advanced Building Systems: HVAC, BIPV, SSL

• Wind Turbine Active Flow Control Demo

• Energy Materials and Device Lab

• New HiV Power Electronic Devices: SiC, GaN

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Benefits of Working with CFES: University Assets

DER System Integration Lab

Wind

Tunnels

Advanced CFD

Fuel Cell

Lab

Manufacturing

Design Lab

High Performance

Computing

Lighting

Research Labs

Energy Materials & Device Lab

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Working with CFES Energy CAT: Technology Foci

Advanced Energy Systems Distributed System Platform Energy Efficiency

• DER Grid Integration

• Microgrid EMS

• Autonomous Control

• Power Quality

• Wide Area Network

• High Voltage DC, FACTS

• Advanced Building Systems

• BIW, BIPV

• Solid State Lighting

• Air and Water Quality

• Power Electronics

• Variable Speed Drives

• Energy Storage Materials

• Full Spectrum Solar Cells

• Vibration Energy Harvesting

• Thermoelectric Generators

• Fuel Cell Membranes

• Active Flow Control Technology

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Benefits of Working with CFES: Technology Cluster

• Participate in key symposia, workshops and conferences

• Access to technology commercialization and tech transfer

• Assistance to find research funding, access to funding partners:

Crystal IS, Advanced Energy Conversion, ThermoAura, Paper Battery,

HeliOptix, Ecovative, H2PUMP, Vital Vio, ActaSys, EnerMat Technologies,

MicrOrganic, Tegula Tile

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NY Reforming the Energy Vision

NY REV

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NY REV – Reforming the Energy Vision

REV 2030 Goals:

• 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels

• A mandate for 50% of New York’s electricity generated from renewable sources

• 23% reduction in energy consumption of buildings from 2012 levels

• Other:

• Empower NY citizens to make better, more informed energy choices

• Create new jobs and business opportunities, support clean innovation

• Improve existing initiatives and infrastructure

• Support clean transportation

• Protect natural resources

• 2015 NYS Energy Plan

“Building a clean, resilient and affordable energy system for New Yorkers”

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NY REV – Reforming the Energy Vision

“grid designed to meet superpeaks which occur only a few hours each year”

Utility Dive 3-3-15 Davide Savenije

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NY REV Challenges

“tie earnings to driving efficiency, leverage DER”

• Aging electric power system (EPS) infrastructure

• Stagnant demand

• Federal and state emission standards

• Renewable portfolio standard (RPS) compliance - 50% RE

• Move away from a centralized grid

• Business Regulatory Model change – sell more kWh >> animate

clean technology markets

• Move away from a centralized grid >> localized grid with DER

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NY REV Technical Challenges

“Do the demonstrations, gain the experience”

• Implementing real time control of distributed energy resources

• Bidirectional voltage stability and overvoltage’s

• Vendor proprietary algorithms, communication protocols

• Utility interconnection rules for multi-inverter based DER

• Specialized protection equipment – direct transfer trip

• Market model change – animate clean technology markets

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NY REV – Initiatives • Clean Energy Fund $5.3B – attract private capital, accelerate DER/EE programs

o 39 billion in customer bill savings; $29 billion in private investment.

• Clean Energy Standard – mandate that requires 50% DER by 2030

• NY-Sun $1B – finance 3 GW of solar projects over 10 years

• K-Solar – support K-12 solar investments in education facilities

• NY Prize $40M – demonstrate community microgrids and develop best practices

• REV Demonstration Projects – DPS mandate to test distributed system platform

• BuildSmart NY – reduce energy in state buildings by 20% by 2020

• NY Green Bank $1B – oversee investment in clean energy technologies

“ny.gov/REV4NY”

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NYS Energy Research and

Development Authority

NYSERDA

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NY Infrastructure Supports Cleantech - NYSERDA

• Proof-of-Concept Centers (NEXUS-NY; PowerBridge)

• Incubators – early stage companies (6)

• Entrepreneurs-in-Residence (HTR)

• Cleantech Leadership Institute (NY EXCEL – Skidmore; NYU)

• Test and Commercialization Centers (Intertek, Clarkson, BU)

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NEXUS NY Proof-of-Concept Center

• Program designed for scientists and concept stage start-ups

• Accelerate commercialization, validate customer-solution fit, de-risk technology

• Business discovery team – technical champion/business development

• Fund market research and proof of concept

• Provide business and entrepreneurial expertise

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NEXUS NY Proof-of-Concept Center

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CleanTech - Open Training Program

• Product/Market Fit through customer interviews

• Product/Technology evaluation by credible third parties

• Business model development with assistance from mentors

• Study of market on how to get there, does it represent attractive opportunity

• Finance – do revenue and cost projections make sense

• Team – relevant skills and appropriate connections

• Legal – is IP defensible and corporate structure free of issues

• Sustainability – are there environmental, economic and social benefits

• Development of executive summary and investor pitch

• Introduction to the investor community thru Regional Finals

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NYSERDA Innovation & Business Development

“Agent of Innovation and Investment”

Capital : Mentoring Programs, Promote Funding Awareness and Networking

Talent: Cleantech Executive Program – Skidmore; Entrepreneurs-in-Residence: RPI, HTR

POCC: NEXUS NY, PowerBridge

Business Incubators: iClean, ACRE, RIT-VC, LIHTI, Clean Tech Center, Directed Energy

Market: ETAC, EE-INC

Manufacturing: ACIT, TTEEM, IPEP, UV/EB, Biomimicry

Tech Centers: NY BEST; LRC; CeCeT; NY BEST, EBP

PON’s: EPTD, Adv. Building Consortium, ABP, Energy Storage Technologies, Clean Power……

NY Cleantech Results: 424 Companies, 294K Workers, $4.4B VC Investment in 2014

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Innovation & Business Development Gap Analysis

ESD/NYSTAR Programs: CoE, CATS, RTDC – MEP Program Focus - Modernization, Best Practices, Lower Cost Manufacturing

FuzeHub, Solution Fairs, Regional Innovation Specialists, Build Smart NY (NYPA), Start-Up NY, Innovation Hotspot Incubators

Recommendations:

• Capital

• Only 5 of 35 Innovate NY seed investments in energy – Cerion, e2e, Graphenix, Intrinsiq, Primet ($1,134K)

• Use Green Bank initiative to attract Upstate Seed and VC Funding for RD&D

• POCC:

• 21 of 100 University team ideas accepted – GREAT! What about the next 20-40 ideas?

• $10-25K Research Studies: JumpStart? “Concept” development.

• How do we get S/M/L industry ideas funded for Proof of Concept? $20-50K Research Studies

• Business Incubators:

• Leverage all regional University assets (NYSTAR Collaboration); OTC Program collaboration to vet IP

• Product Development:

• Clean Power – should be evergreen – continuous submission – good ideas are not on a timeline!

• BOS – Emphasis on new ideas in PV, wind, storage

• Manufacturing:

• Focused initiatives – Battery production – same old processes? Electro-coating? UV/EB deployment?

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Department of Energy

DOE

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Energy $12.4B R&D Spending in 2016

– Funding Opportunity Announcements

– ARPA-E

– SBIR/STTR

– Energy Frontier Research Centers $1.2B (36)

– National Labs (9/16)

($6B; 30K workers)

Federal Infrastructure Supports Cleantech

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Renewable Energy Outlook

Basics

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US Nameplate Electrical Capacity is 1,100 GW (1.1 TW)

•100 W

•1000 W (kW)

•1,000,000 W (MW)

•1,000,000,000 W (GW)

•1,100,000,000,000 W (TW) 2015 3.8K TWh, $.104 kWh; (12.6 Quads)

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World Energy Outlook – IEA Fact Sheet

• World energy demand will increase 40% by 2040

• Non-OECD countries will account for 71% of the growth

– China and India represent 53% of incremental growth

• Fossil fuels account for 78% of world energy consumption in

2040

– Oil will rise to 103M bpd (BP forecast 115M) from 92M

bpd today

– Coal usage 40% to 29% in 2040, gas 62% increase to

203Tcf

• Electricity demand grows 60% - 36k TWh (Equiv. of 10

USA)

– Electric Vehicles grow to 150M in 2040 (1M in 2015)

– Renewable energy grows from 22% to 30%

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Global Cumulative Installations 2000-2020e

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US Energy Outlook – Quadrennial Technology Review

• US energy consumption grows at .2-.3% agr. thru 2040, peak demand .8% agr

• 92 GW coal and 20 GW nuclear retired; add 145 GW gas, 80 GW wind, 198 GW

solar (eia Annual Energy Outlook Jan 13, 2017)

• Fossil fuels account for 82% of US energy consumption in 2015, 77% in 2040

– Oil demand is flat since 2010 at 19M bpd, production up to 9M bpd

– Coal declined to 917 million short tons, down 12.6%

– Natural gas production 11.9 TCF (2X) since 2010, net exporter by 2017

• Wind and solar make of 66% of new renewable generation

– Renewable energy grows from 13% to 18%

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US Electrical Capacity is 1,100 GW, (NYS 39 GW)

United States Electricity Sources (eia); 4,100 Billion kWh (statstica)

• Coal 33% (NYS 2%)

• Nuclear 20% (61 plants, 99 reactors) (NYS 32%)

• Natural Gas 33% ($2.49 Mbtu) (NYS 38%)

• Hydro 6% (NYS 19%)

• Petroleum 1% (NYS 3%)

• Renewable 7% (NYS 5%)

US Renewable energy capacity grew to 16.7%, 13.8% of generation

Renewables accounted for 64% of new generation

Renewable Energy Data Book 2015

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U.S. Installed Wind Capacity

IAE estimates investment in T&D $1.8T by 2030

U.S. Wind Energy Capacity Statistics

Total U.S. installed wind capacity,

through end of 2015:

73,992

MW

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Global Offshore Wind

• 2015 Cumulative Capacity of 12.1 GW (+39%)

• 91% is located in the Northern Europe: North, Baltic & Irish Seas

• 2020 forecast of 50 GW

• Offshore wind resources are generally much greater

• Offshore wind is suitable for large scale development near the major

demand centers, avoiding the need for long transmission lines;

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Offshore Wind

Cape Wind Farm Project – 350 MW; 75% Cape Cod 175,000 homes

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The Sankey Diagram – 12.6/38.0 Quads is Electricity

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Future Grid Investment Scenarios

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State Electrical Generation Comparison

NY CA HI TX WA

• Coal 2% 0% 13% 26% 0%

• Nuclear 32% 12% 0% 10% 7%

• Natural Gas 38% 54% 0% 53% 6%

• Hydro 19% 7% 1% 0% 78%

• Petroleum 3% 0% 71% 0% 0%

• Wind 4% 7% 6% 10% 5%

• Solar 1% 8% 1% <1% <1%

• Other 2% 13% 8% 1% 2%

• Cents/kWh 14.87 14.18 24.00 8.29 7.75

• RPS Goal 2030 50% 50% 40% 10GW 15%

TX exceeded RPS goal (10 GW 2025) in 2015

Renewable Energy Data Book 2015

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The Duck Curve

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Lesson Learned

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German Energiewende

(Handout)

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Energy Storage • Solid State Batteries - a range of electrochemical storage solutions, including advanced chemistry

batteries and capacitors: Lithium ion, Lithium sulfur, Sodium Metal Halide

• Flow Batteries - batteries where the energy is stored directly in the electrolyte solution for

longer cycle life, and quick response times

• Flywheels - mechanical devices that harness rotational energy to deliver instantaneous electricity

• Compressed Air Energy Storage - utilizing compressed air to create a potent energy reserve

• Thermal - capturing heat and cold to create energy on demand

• Pumped Hydro-Power - creating large-scale reservoirs of energy with water

Greentech Media

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GE Durathon Battery Cell Factory

• Investment $189M (2010), $20M Gov’t support; Capacity?

• Technology – Molten sodium nickel chloride, 30+ patents, rechargeable 3500X, non-toxic, energy dense

– Grand Opening 2012 Markets: Telecom, Grid, Mining, Electric Rail, Energy Mgt.

• Claim – Initial COGS $1250/kW, projection $250/kW with scale

– 10,000 sensors to optimize production

– Sale projection of $1B by 2020

• 2012 Revenues $64M+; 300-450 employees

• September 2015 ceased operation

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GE Durathon Battery Cell Factory

• Investment $189M (2010), $20M Gov’t support; Capacity?

• Technology – Molten sodium nickel chloride, 30+ patents, rechargeable 3500X, non-toxic, energy dense

– Grand Opening 2012 Markets: Telecom, Grid, Mining, Electric Rail, Energy Mgt.

• Claim – Initial COGS $1250/kW, projection $250/kW with scale

– 10,000 sensors to optimize production

– Sale projection of $1B by 2020

• 2012 Revenues $64M+; 300-450 employees

• September 2015 ceased operation

“GE

production

is not cost

effective”

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Lithium Ion Battery Cost Projections cleantechnia

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Photovoltaic Technologies - Silicon

• Silicon

– Monocrystalline 18-20%

• Ingots drawn using Czochralski process

• Ingots cut to produce wafers

• Highest efficiency silicon cells, higher cost

– Poly-Crystal 14-16%

• Ingots cast in bricks

• Ingots cut to produce wafers

• Ingots can be cut into square wafer

• Less costly to produce than monocrystalline

• Thin Film

• Amorphous silicon – 8%

• Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS) 14%

• Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) 14%

• Copper, zinc, tin, sulfur (CZTS) 8%

• Organic polymer 8-11%

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Solyndra Solar Cell Factory

• Investment $733M (2010), Capacity 300MW; ARRA loan $535M

• Technology – Thin film copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) cylindrical cells

• Claim – Tighter packing of tubular panels (footprint) >absorption> electricity

– Tracking unnecessary – output 8.5% efficiency versus 14-16% reported

– 2006 – 1000 global systems installed (100 MW)

• 2010 Revenues $140M; 1000 employees; Market Cap $2B

• September 2011 declared bankruptcy

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Solyndra Solar Cell Factory

• Investment $733M (2010), Capacity 300MW; ARRA loan $535M

• Technology – Thin film copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) cylindrical cells

• Claim – Tighter packing of tubular panels (footprint) >absorption> electricity

– Tracking unnecessary – output 8.5% efficiency versus 12-14% reported

– 2006 – 1000 global systems installed (100 MW)

• 2010 Revenues $140M; 1000 employees; Market Cap $2B

• September 2011 declared bankruptcy

Polysilicon price

dropped 89%

2009-2011

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Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Energy—Wind/Solar PV

Cleantechnica

Lazard LCOE Analysis 2016

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Energy Storage • Just six large carmakers will account for 90% of the battery demand: Tesla, BYD, Volkswagen,

General Motors (GM), Renault-Nissan and BMW. $10B by 2020 – Lux.

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Tesla - Giga Battery Cell Factory

• Investment $5B (2016), Capacity 30 GWh

• Technology – Electric vehicle lithium ion flat battery pack, 20 minute supercharge

• Claim – Highest energy density battery, scale will reduce COGS 30%

– 80% vertical manufacturing integration

– 400,000 Model 3 backlog

• 2015 Revenues $4B; 6500 employees; Market Cap $40B

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Tesla - Giga Battery Cell Factory

• Investment $5B (2016), Capacity 30 GWh

• Technology – Electric vehicle lithium ion flat battery pack, 20 minute supercharge

• Claim – Highest energy density battery, scale will reduce COGS 30%

– 80% vertical manufacturing integration

– 400,000 Model 3 backlog

• 2015 Revenues $4B; 6500 employees; Market Cap $40B

???

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Lithium Ion Battery Cost Projections cleantechnia

Thank You

Marty Byrne - byrnem2@rpi.edu