Energy and the Environment in the next Millennium

Talk at Seminar on

Planetary Emergencies

Erice, Sicily. August 20th 2010

Richard Wilson

Harvard University

Introduction

We have been asked to consider the role of science in the next millenium

All too often our role has been pessimistic and critical. I will be deliberately optimistic

In 18th century Ned Ludd destroyed machinery because it was destroying jobs. The Luddites failed to stop the Industrial Revolution

We must distinguish the real from the imaginary complaints

Picture of Luddite

Brief History

4000 years ago man used 300 watts limited to what he ate.

3000 years ago man discovered fire, wood and charcoal for steel making.

2000 years ago man domesticated animals . A horse does 10 times the work of a man and eats more foods than a man can.

1000 years ago man used water wheels and windmills for milling corn

The last millenium

1250 Dutch windmills 20% efficient 2010 Modern windmills 40% efficient 1000 UK bought “sea-coales” Sunderland to

London 1712 Newcomen’s Steam engine 1750+ James Watt improved engine 1830 “Portable” steam engine RailRoads 1880 Internal combustion engine used oil

Cars 1939-45 Nuclear fission opened new source

King Coal’s Long Reign

1307 King Edward I of England objected to Coal“ …We instruct you to make public proclamation in the aforesaid of

Southwark that all those who wish to operate kilns…should bake them in the customary fashion from brushwood or charcoal and henceforth should make absolutely no use of sea-coal”

~1327 King Edward II tortured the people fouling the air

~1390 King Richard II tried Taxing coal

~1420 King Henry V established Commission to study the matter

I know of no commission report!

After this, only talk for 5 centuries!

King Coal still powerfulothers talk

1600 England ran out of wood, coal took over 1610 King James I (of England VI of Scotland) objected to

“tobacco-drinking” 1661 John Evelyn wrote :“this horrible smoake” 1780 William Blake in his famous poem “ Jerusalem” talks

about “ dark satanic mills” ~ 1850 the Church talks too: “From hell, Hull and Halifax, Good Lord Deliver us.” 1920 Hetherington: “ the solution to pollution is dilution” (tall chimney stacks) ~ 1935 Real Measurements begin December 1952: London Air pollution “incident”

Controlling the Environment

1952 December air pollution “incident”

Daily Mean Pollution Concentration and Daily Numbers of Deaths During the London Fog Episode

~1960 A wave of optimism

Nino and Dick Garwin measure g – 2 Russia builds first apartments since 1914 USSR- USA scientists talk and make friends Russian Astrophysicist Nicolai Kardashev

proposes a scale Carl Sagan and Freeman Dyson support

him

The Kardashev Scale

Type I a civilization harness all of the power

available on planet

Type II a civilization harness all of the power

available on a star

Type III a civilization harness all of the power

available on a single galaxy

Kardashev Number

K = frac{\log_ {10}{W}^ -6}

W: energy in tera watts

K val = 0.49 in 1000 AD

Aim for Type I by year 3000 AD

Using more fossil fuelsRunning out? Environmental problems?

Using more nuclear fissionPublic opposition and nuclear bombs

Large scale application of fusion powerFar more optimistic than our colleagues Jeff Ongena and

MiyaharaAntimatter

The technological ability to collect antimatter in large quantities is unknown

Solar EnergyConverting sunlight into electricity by solar cells is inefficientThe 100% efficiency would still demand coating the earth’s

surface with man-made structures10% conversion efficiency and covering 10% of the earth

raise the Kardashev number to beyond 0.8Collect solar energy in stratosphere and re-radiate to earth?

(proposed by NASA in 1985)

Dyson spheres and stormsHypothetical mega structures originally described by Freeman

Dyson to completely enclose a star

Social and Environmental Upheaval

Few historians have expressed that: Kardashev scale could potentially describe

periods of social upheaval Strong risk of self-destruction

Nuclear fission gets out of control

Andrei Dimitreyvich Sakharov 1979:

“ we must not stop progress”

he thought that man kind is bright enough

to control its’ progress.

A Return to the Present Century The human race can accomplish such things.

I admit to having been pessimistic! In 1939, Arthur Clark wrote about going to the moon

I thought he was talking nonsense

This was achieved (1939-1969) in 0.03 millenia Difficulty of going to the nearest galaxy

We need a high velocity -v/c about 0.5 to get there in a lifetime

Passing at that speed through of interstellar sea of hydrogen gives immense radiation damage

This seems Insuperable

Environmental concerns

Scientists must distinguish between real concerns and neo-Luddism:

”stop the world. I want to get off”. NIMBY: Not In My Back Yard NIMNBY: Not in My Neighbor’s Back Yard BANANA: Build Absolutely Nothing

Anywhere Near Anybody” Avoid Tilting at Windmills (Cervantes):

Don Quixote

I suggest that we can and should try to control the environment: whether man made or not

Kardashev Scale might be helpful in Major environmental catastrophes

Threat of Nuclear war Threat of Major pandemic

References

Kardashev, Nikolai (1964). "http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi‑bin/nph‑iarticle_query?db_key=AST&bibcode=1964SvA.....8..217K&letter=.&classic=YES&defaultprint

Sagan, Carl (October 2000) [1973]. Jerome Agel. ed. Cosmic Connection: An Extraterrestrial Perspective. Freeman J. Dyson, David Morrison. Cambridge Press. ISBN 05‑21‑7830‑38. http://books.google.com/?id=lL57o9YB0mAC&pg=PA156. Retrieved 2008‑01‑01.

World Energy Outlook. Paris, France: International Energy Agency. pp. 82. ISBN 92‑64‑1094‑98. http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2005/weo2005.pdf. Retrieved 2008‑01‑01. ]

"Key World Energy Statistics" (PDF). International Energy Agency. 2004. http://www.iea.org/dbtw‑wpd/textbase/nppdf/free/2004/keyworld2004.pdf. Retrieved 2006‑08‑10.

Quads: 1 quadrillion BTU Mtoes: Million tonnes (metric tons) of oil equivalents Dyson, Freeman J. (1966). "The Search for Extraterrestrial Technology". Perspectives in

Modern Physics (New York: John Wiley & Sons). Kaku, Michio (2005). Parallel Worlds: The Science of Alternative Universes and Our Future

in the Cosmos. New York: Doubleday. pp. 317. ISBN 0713997281. Dyson, Freeman J. Energy in the Universe Article in September 1971 Scientific American

magazine (Special September Issue on Energy)

Now I am finished ,

You may wake up