ENERGY (AND) SECURITY

Complications and challenges

REMEMBER ‘SOMETHING’ SECURITY?

• The security of energy itself is an issue: - because we rely on it and our supplies may be interrupted (by accident, nature, or human intent) - because the extraction and use of many energy forms can damage nature and human beings, ie reflexive risks for ‘human security’

• The interaction of energy and security is something else - covered later

SOME IMPLICATIONS

• Good example of ‘reflexive risk’ i.e. our own choices (energy mix, energy efficiency, level of dependence) are the measure of the scale of security probs.

• The supplier also needs security

• Other consumers/suppliers can come to be seen as ‘the enemy’

PROBLEMS OF DEPENDENCE

• Overall world supplies not adequate = zero-sum competition, excessive power to suppliers (primary + secondary aspects)

• Lack of flexibility in market• Over-dependence on one energy

type/source• High risks attached to certain supplies..

‘EXTERNAL’ RISKS

• Resources less/different than thought

• Supplier changes regime,+/or mind

• Human/natural damage to sources

• Human/natural damage to means of transit (ships, pipelines)

• Prices rise (also for ‘illogical’ reasons)

‘INTERNAL’ RISKS

• Means of distribution inadequate/inap-propriate/leaky

• Human or natural damage to network

• Inefficient/inappropriate use of energy

• Risk of accidents

• Pollution + other medical or environmental harm

MAPPING RELATIVE RISKS

• External risks usually greatest for gas and oil - on gas may improve with LNG

• Coal risk mainly internal, esp pollution• Nuclear ‘split personality’• Renewables have least risk so long as

produced on own territory• Where to put bio-fuels??? • Policy must set risks ag. costs (+ habit)

USUAL RANGE OF REMEDIES

• Increase energy efficiency, decrease dependence (role of pricing)

• Diversify energy types + suppliers• Use more home-made sources• Improve safety (inc anti-prolifn. steps)• Environmental + climate-related controls• Emergency stocks + stock-sharing• Long-term pricing agreements (collective

bargaining?)

AND ALSO…

• (Polit/mil/technical) arrangements for safety of sources

• (Ditto) arrangements for safety/ redundancy/ repair of means of delivery Remarks: - whole range of remedies involve interface with private actors - security measures abroad lead into next agenda…

ENERGY AND SECURITY

• Bad security affects energy: intra-state conflict and state weakness affects extraction; any armed conflict damages installations and export (aggravates pollution); conflict+terrorism affect delivery; neglect of safety (anywhere)

• Energy affects security…….

ENERGY-LINKED THREATS

• War with energy sources (or more rarely, delivery routes) as primary/secondary cause: energy (i) a tool of power, (ii) a tool of war

• Use of energy supplies (and/or manipulated prices) as a weapon for coercion/domination without use of arms

• Energy deals as means of ‘empire-building’ + strategic competition

DIFFERENT ENERGY SECURITY PROFILES

• Typical European

• Typical producer country

• China or India

• Typical smaller developing country

WHAT IS ICELAND’S PROFILE?

• Over to Gustaf Adolf…

AFTER THE BREAK: 3 ‘THREAT’ SCENARIOS

• Aim is to disentangle: - Is it really an ‘energy risk’ or a case of energy-and-security links? - How do public policy and private business interact? - What are the best remedies (also thinking of other security dimensions?)

ARCTIC ENERGY EXPLOITATION AND IMPACT FOR ICELAND

• What issues?

• What actors?

• What remedies?

ANOTHER WAR IN THE GULF

• What issues?

• What actors?

• What remedies?

INTRA-STATE WAR IN CENTRAL AFRICA INC. COMPETITION OVER

OILFIELDS • What issues?

• What actors?

• What remedies?