Energy and Environmental Implications of Carbon Ei i Rd ti ...
Transcript of Energy and Environmental Implications of Carbon Ei i Rd ti ...
International Workshop on “Towards Low Carbon Cities: Understanding and Analyzing Urban Energy and Carbon”
Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan17-18 February 2009
Energy and Environmental Implications of Carbon E i i R d ti T tEmission Reduction Targets:
Case of Kathmandu Valley
Ram M. Shrestha and Salony RajbhandariAsian Institute of TechnologyAsian Institute of Technology
ThailandThailand
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Source: ICIMOD 2007
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Source: ICIMOD, 2007
Kathmandu Valley• The capital city of Nepal• Area: 899 km2
• Population in 2005: 1.85 million– About 51% of the total national urban population
• Major user of electricity and other modern fuels in the country• Major user of electricity and other modern fuels in the country– 29% of national electricity consumption in 2005– Over 55% of national oil consumption
• High growth of vehicle stock: CAGR during 1995-2005: 12.7% • Growing air quality problem
– PM10: 236 to 606 ppm > WHO standard (70 ppm)pp ( pp )– TSP: above 1000 ppm > WHO standard (150-230 ppm)
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Objectives and MethodologyObjectives and Methodology
• To analyze energy supply structure and cumulative CO2y gy pp y 2emission level in the base case during 2005-2050
• To analyze the effects of selected carbon reduction t ttargets on: – energy supply- and technology- mix– emissions of local air pollutants– Sectoral contributions to CO2 reductions
------------------M th d lMethodology• A long term energy system model of Kathmandu valley
(based on MARKAL framework) used for the study
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(based on MARKAL framework) used for the study
Structure of Present Energy UseStructure of Present Energy Use
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Structure of Total Energy Consumption in K th d V llKathmandu Valley
2005
8%2%15%29% Coal
ElectricityPetroleum Products
46%
Petroleum ProductsRenewablesOther Fossils
46%
TEC: 35.78 PJ
6Oil has the predominant share (46%), followed by renewables
Sectoral Shares in Total Energy Consumption
Agricultural0.11% Commercial
9.81%Transport31.24% Industrial
18.90%
2005 Residential39.93%
TEC: 35.78 PJ
7Combined share of Residential, transport and industrial sectors: about 89%
Residential Sector Energy Structure in 2005
Electricity
Biogas0.07%
Solar0.01%
Fuelwood41.83%
Electricity24%
Kerosene
Animal Dung0 42%
LPG6 55%
Kerosene15.92%
2005
0.42%
Agricultural Residue11.34%
Coal0.14%
6.55%
Total: 14.23 PJ
8Biomass 53%, Electricity 24%, oil 16%, LPG 6.5%
Commercial Sector Energy Structure in 2005
Fuelwood7%
Solar7%
Charcoal7%
LPG6%
0%Electricity
23%
2005 Kerosene57% Total: 4.03 PJ
9Oil 57%, electricity 23%, LPG 6%, biomass 14%
Transport Sector Energy Structure in 2005
Jet Fuel 18 90%
Electricity0.18% LPG
3.60%
CNG0.00%
18.90%
Diesel 40.05%
2005Gasoline37.26%
Total: 10.73 PJ
10Based almost entirely on petroleum products
Industrial Sector Energy Structure in 2005
KeroseneElectricity
Other Petroleums3%
Kerosene1%
Diesel2%
12%Fuelwood
21%
3%
Agricultural ResidueAgricultural Residue15%
Coal
2005Lignite
6%40%
Total: 6.71 PJ
11Coal and lignite 46%; biomass 36%, electricity 12%, oil 6%
Description of Casesesc pt o o Cases
• Base case: no carbon reduction policiesp• Carbon Emission Reduction Cases
– ER10: Cumulative carbon emission reduction target of 10% from the base case emission level
– ER20ER30– ER30
– ER40
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Base Case Analysis
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Total Energy Consumption during 2005-2050
Primary Energy Supply
500000
300000
400000Other FossilsRenewables
100000
200000
TJ Petroleum ProductsElectricityCoal
0
100000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
- CAGR of TEC: 6%
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-TEC in 2050 almost 13 times of that in 2005
- Substantial increase in electricity use
Structure of Total Energy Consumption in 2005 vs. 2050
2005
8%15%29%
2%
CoalElectricity
2050
46%
Petroleum ProductsRenewablesOther Fossils
10%15%4%
46%42%
29%
CoalEl t i itElectricityPetroleum ProductsRenewablesOther Fossils
• Share of electricity increases to 42% in 2050
•Petroleum products share
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preduces to 29% in 2050
Sectoral Shares in Energy ConsumptionAgricultural
Industrial18.90%
Transport31.24%
Commercial9.81%
g0.11%
Agricultural0.15%
Commercial19.29%
Transport21.83%
2005Residential
39 93%
Industrial19.50%35,790 TJ
39.93%
2050Residential
39.23%443,350 TJ
Total energy consumption to increase by 12 times during 2005-2050 (CAGR: 5.6%).C i l t h i ti i f 9% i
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Commercial sector share in energy consumption increases from 9% in 2005 to 19% in 2050; transport sector share decreases to 21%.
CO2 Emissions from Energy Use during 2005-2050 – Nearly 9-fold increase in CO2 Emissions by 2050 (CAGR: 5.2%)– Total emission in 2005 = 1,499 ktons– Transport , Industrial and Commercial sectors- 3 largest emittersp , g
15000
Sectoral CO2 Emissions
10000
12500
15000
Transport
2 00
5000
7500ktonsp
ResidentialIndustrialCommercial
0
2500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Y
Agricultural
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Year
PM10 Emissions from Energy Use during 2005-2050 in Base Case
Total PM10 emissions in 2005 = 3.7 ktons
To increase by 5.5 times by 2050 (CAGR of 3.85%)
Sectoral PM10 Emissions
To increase by 5.5 times by 2050 (CAGR of 3.85%)
15
20
25
Transport
5
10ktons Residential
IndustrialCommercialAgricultural
02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
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PM10 concentration in the valley generally already exceeds the 24-hour average standard value set by NAAQS — A major air quality problem!
Emission of air pollutants in Base CaseEmissions
450500
250300350400450
tons
SO2NOXCOTSP
050
100150200kt TSP
PM2.5HC
02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Pollutant Average Growth Rate, %
Pollutant Average Growth Rate, %
SO2 5.62 TSP 3.82
NOX 4.57 PM2 5 3.67
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X 2.5
CO 4.28 HC 5.3
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CO2 Reduction Case Analysis
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Energy Mix under CO2 Reduction Targetse gy u de CO2 educt o a gets
Primary Energy Supply Mix under CO2 Limits
4500000
6000000
7500000
Renewables
0
1500000
3000000
4500000TJ
RenewablesOther FossilsCoalPetroleum ProductsElectricity0
BaseCase
ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40
Cases
Electricity
Increasing use of electricity: Electricity use in ER40 case 44 % higher than that in the base case.
Petroleum share: declines to 23% in ER40 case (32% in the base case)
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Petroleum share: declines to 23% in ER40 case (32% in the base case).
CO2 emission under different cases during 2005-2050, ktons
10000 00
12000.00
14000.00
16000.00
Base
4000.00
6000.00
8000.00
10000.00
kton
s ER10ER20ER30ER40
0.00
2000.00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Total Sectoral CO2 Emissions during 2005-2050, ktons
Year
Case Annual Growth • CAGR of CO2 emission: 5.2%Rate of CO2
Base 5.21%ER10 4.73%ER20 4 30%
CAGR of CO2 emission: 5.2% in Base case and 3.8% in ER40
•Transport sector - the largest CO itt f ll d b
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ER20 4.30%ER30 3.95%ER40 3.83%
CO2 emitter, followed by industrial, commercial and residential sectors
Sectoral Contribution in CO2 Reduction from different Emission Reduction Casesdifferent Emission Reduction Cases
Sectoral shares in CO2 reduction under
ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40Sector
Agricultural 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6%gCommercial 60.4% 52.4% 40.4% 31.9%
Industrial -0.1% 3.3% 8.5% 8.4%
Residential 21.6% 19.6% 15.9% 15.1%
Transport 17.1% 23.7% 34.5% 44.1%Total CO2 reduction, ktons 27073 54189 81304 108378
-At targets up to ER30 commercial sector is the biggest contributor to CO2 reductions;
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At targets up to ER30, commercial sector is the biggest contributor to CO2 reductions; -Transport sector contributes most at ER40.-Contributions of the transport and industrial sectors increasing with ERT-Contributions of the residential and commercial sectors decreasing with ERT
Environmental Co-benefits of CO2 Emission R d tiReductions
PM10 Emissions PM2.5 Emissions
100150200250300350400450
ktons
TransportResidentialIndustrialCommercial
406080
100120140160180200
ktons
TransportResidentialIndustrialCommercial
TSP Emissions
050
Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40
Cases
Agricultural
02040
Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40
Cases
Agricultural
NOX Emissions
300400500600700800900
ktons
TSP Emissions
TransportResidentialIndustrial 600
80010001200140016001800
ktons
NOX Emissions
TransportResidentialIndustrial
0100200300
Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40
Cases
CommercialAgricultural 0
200400
BaseCase
ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40
Cases
CommercialAgricultural
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Environmental Co-benefits of CO2 Emission Reductionseduct o s
SO2 Emissions
100
150
200
250
300
350
ktons
Transport
Residential
Industrial
Commercial
0
50
Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40
Cases
Agricultural
8000
10000
12000
CO Emissions
Transport3000350040004500
HC Emissions
Transport
0
2000
4000
6000ktons
Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40
Cases
Residential
IndustrialCommercial
Agricultural
0500
1000150020002500
ktons
Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40
TransportResidential
IndustrialCommercial
Agricultural
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Cases
Total Discounted Cost under CO2 Emission R d ti T tReduction Targets
CaseMillion US$, @
2005 prices % increase
Base 19,491 -
ER10 19,538 0.24
ER20 19,696 1.05
ER30 20,108 3.17
ER40 21 298 9 27ER40 21,298 9.27
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Conclusion and Remarks
• Total energy consumption in Kathmandu valley would increase by 12 fold during 2005-2050 in the base case.
• There would be a substantial increase in the share of electricity and d i th il hdecrease in the oil share.
• Commercial sector share in energy consumption would increase from 9% in 2005 to 19% in 2050.
• CO2 emission would be increased by nearly a 9 fold by 2050.y y y• Transport sector is the largest CO2 emitter, followed by industrial,
commercial and residential sectors.
• Commercial sector is the biggest contributor to CO2 reduction for up• Commercial sector is the biggest contributor to CO2 reduction for up to ER30, while the transport sector contributes most at ER40.
• Electricity share in total energy consumption increases with ERT (due to hydropower.
• Electricity share in transport would increase for targets above ER10.• Fuel cell and biodiesel in transport would be cost effective under
ER40.• Substantial reduction in local air pollutants would result under ER
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Substantial reduction in local air pollutants would result under ER cases.
• Total discounted cost would increase by 0.24% in ER10 to 9% in ER40.
Thank youThank youEmail: ram@ait ac thEmail: [email protected]
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Energy Mix during 2005-2050 in Transport Sector, %
Fuel Share, %
Fuel Type Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40Biodiesel 0 0 0 0 3.83CNG 0 47 0 47 0 48 0 38 0 20CNG 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.38 0.20Diesel 21.35 21.52 20.82 20.33 16.71Hydrogen 0 0 0 0 2.34Gasohol 0.00 17.23 16.98 14.33 6.97Gasoline 39.30 13.08 10.24 8.59 9.04Jet Fuel 27.68 27.89 28.53 29.74 31.34LPG 11.17 19.77 19.15 14.67 8.38Electricity 0.02 0.02 3.80 11.95 21.17
Gasohol use under all ER cases biodiesel use only under ER40
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- Gasohol use under all ER cases, biodiesel use only under ER40- Oil share declining; electricity share increasing above ER10- Electricity-- hydro based
Effect of CO2 Reduction on Fuel Mix during 2005-2050 i C i l S t2050 in Commercial Sector
Percentage Share in Fuel use
Fuel Type Base Case ER10 ER20 ER30 ER40Electricity 13.96 18.60 29.95 35.00 37.87LPG 4.66 9.72 3.51 1.16 0.94Kerosene 12.25 10.11 7.10 5.78 5.16
Charcoal 16.46 4.59 1.67 0.43 0.00
Fuel wood 51.75 55.97 56.72 56.09 54.91
Solar 0.91 1.01 1.05 1.09 1.12
30Substitution of petroleum products and charcoal with electricity (hydropower) in ER cases
Major Technologies Needed to Meet CO2 Emission Reduction Targets
Sectors Technologies
AgriculturalEfficient electrical pumps
CommercialEfficient air conditioners, electricity/ renewable based cooking devices, electric and solar water heating devices CFLand solar water heating devices, CFL.
IndustrialElectricity and renewable based process heat and boiler technologies, efficient lighting devices.devices.
ResidentialEfficient air conditioners, electric cooking devices, electric or solar water heating devices, CFL.
Transport Biofuel vehicles, fuel cell vehicles
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