ENERGIMARKNADER I FÖRÄNDRING
48
ENERGIMARKNADER I FÖRÄNDRING Ulf Svahn SPBI
Transcript of ENERGIMARKNADER I FÖRÄNDRING
ENERGIMARKNADER I
FOumlRAumlNDRING
Ulf Svahn
SPBI
WEC sju myter om energi
Simply put the World Energy Council (WEC) is the largest global network of energy leaders and practitioners dedicated to delivering a sustainable energy system for the greatest benefit of all Originally intended as an organisation to manage a gathering of energy experts the WEC has evolved into one of the worldrsquos most influential energy organisations
WEC sju myter om energi
Simply put the World Energy Council (WEC) is the largest global network of energy leaders and practitioners dedicated to delivering a sustainable energy system for the greatest benefit of all Originally intended as an organisation to manage a gathering of energy experts the WEC has evolved into one of the worldrsquos most influential energy organisations
Securing tomorrows energy today
Myt 1
Myth 1 Global energy demand will flatten out
Kaumllla WEC
Primaumlrenergianvaumlndning
Energiintensitet
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fordonsutveckling globalt
Personbilar Lastbilar
2011 740 000 000 310 000 000
2035 2 100 000 000 850 000 000
2050 (linjaumlr uppraumlkning) 2 800 000 000 1 200 000 000
Kaumllla Bil Sweden IEA WEO 2013
Myt 1
Myth 1 Global energy demand will flatten out
The Reality Energy demand will continue to
increase and double by 2050 primarily driven by
economic growth in non-OECD countries
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
Kaumllla WEC
Vad aumlr Peak oil
The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration recognising that it is a finite natural resource subject to depletion --Colin Campbell
Kaumllla ASPO s hemsida
Hubberts kurva
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
WEC sju myter om energi
Simply put the World Energy Council (WEC) is the largest global network of energy leaders and practitioners dedicated to delivering a sustainable energy system for the greatest benefit of all Originally intended as an organisation to manage a gathering of energy experts the WEC has evolved into one of the worldrsquos most influential energy organisations
WEC sju myter om energi
Simply put the World Energy Council (WEC) is the largest global network of energy leaders and practitioners dedicated to delivering a sustainable energy system for the greatest benefit of all Originally intended as an organisation to manage a gathering of energy experts the WEC has evolved into one of the worldrsquos most influential energy organisations
Securing tomorrows energy today
Myt 1
Myth 1 Global energy demand will flatten out
Kaumllla WEC
Primaumlrenergianvaumlndning
Energiintensitet
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fordonsutveckling globalt
Personbilar Lastbilar
2011 740 000 000 310 000 000
2035 2 100 000 000 850 000 000
2050 (linjaumlr uppraumlkning) 2 800 000 000 1 200 000 000
Kaumllla Bil Sweden IEA WEO 2013
Myt 1
Myth 1 Global energy demand will flatten out
The Reality Energy demand will continue to
increase and double by 2050 primarily driven by
economic growth in non-OECD countries
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
Kaumllla WEC
Vad aumlr Peak oil
The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration recognising that it is a finite natural resource subject to depletion --Colin Campbell
Kaumllla ASPO s hemsida
Hubberts kurva
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
WEC sju myter om energi
Simply put the World Energy Council (WEC) is the largest global network of energy leaders and practitioners dedicated to delivering a sustainable energy system for the greatest benefit of all Originally intended as an organisation to manage a gathering of energy experts the WEC has evolved into one of the worldrsquos most influential energy organisations
Securing tomorrows energy today
Myt 1
Myth 1 Global energy demand will flatten out
Kaumllla WEC
Primaumlrenergianvaumlndning
Energiintensitet
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fordonsutveckling globalt
Personbilar Lastbilar
2011 740 000 000 310 000 000
2035 2 100 000 000 850 000 000
2050 (linjaumlr uppraumlkning) 2 800 000 000 1 200 000 000
Kaumllla Bil Sweden IEA WEO 2013
Myt 1
Myth 1 Global energy demand will flatten out
The Reality Energy demand will continue to
increase and double by 2050 primarily driven by
economic growth in non-OECD countries
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
Kaumllla WEC
Vad aumlr Peak oil
The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration recognising that it is a finite natural resource subject to depletion --Colin Campbell
Kaumllla ASPO s hemsida
Hubberts kurva
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 1
Myth 1 Global energy demand will flatten out
Kaumllla WEC
Primaumlrenergianvaumlndning
Energiintensitet
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fordonsutveckling globalt
Personbilar Lastbilar
2011 740 000 000 310 000 000
2035 2 100 000 000 850 000 000
2050 (linjaumlr uppraumlkning) 2 800 000 000 1 200 000 000
Kaumllla Bil Sweden IEA WEO 2013
Myt 1
Myth 1 Global energy demand will flatten out
The Reality Energy demand will continue to
increase and double by 2050 primarily driven by
economic growth in non-OECD countries
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
Kaumllla WEC
Vad aumlr Peak oil
The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration recognising that it is a finite natural resource subject to depletion --Colin Campbell
Kaumllla ASPO s hemsida
Hubberts kurva
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Primaumlrenergianvaumlndning
Energiintensitet
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fordonsutveckling globalt
Personbilar Lastbilar
2011 740 000 000 310 000 000
2035 2 100 000 000 850 000 000
2050 (linjaumlr uppraumlkning) 2 800 000 000 1 200 000 000
Kaumllla Bil Sweden IEA WEO 2013
Myt 1
Myth 1 Global energy demand will flatten out
The Reality Energy demand will continue to
increase and double by 2050 primarily driven by
economic growth in non-OECD countries
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
Kaumllla WEC
Vad aumlr Peak oil
The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration recognising that it is a finite natural resource subject to depletion --Colin Campbell
Kaumllla ASPO s hemsida
Hubberts kurva
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Fordonsutveckling globalt
Personbilar Lastbilar
2011 740 000 000 310 000 000
2035 2 100 000 000 850 000 000
2050 (linjaumlr uppraumlkning) 2 800 000 000 1 200 000 000
Kaumllla Bil Sweden IEA WEO 2013
Myt 1
Myth 1 Global energy demand will flatten out
The Reality Energy demand will continue to
increase and double by 2050 primarily driven by
economic growth in non-OECD countries
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
Kaumllla WEC
Vad aumlr Peak oil
The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration recognising that it is a finite natural resource subject to depletion --Colin Campbell
Kaumllla ASPO s hemsida
Hubberts kurva
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 1
Myth 1 Global energy demand will flatten out
The Reality Energy demand will continue to
increase and double by 2050 primarily driven by
economic growth in non-OECD countries
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
Kaumllla WEC
Vad aumlr Peak oil
The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration recognising that it is a finite natural resource subject to depletion --Colin Campbell
Kaumllla ASPO s hemsida
Hubberts kurva
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
Kaumllla WEC
Vad aumlr Peak oil
The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration recognising that it is a finite natural resource subject to depletion --Colin Campbell
Kaumllla ASPO s hemsida
Hubberts kurva
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Vad aumlr Peak oil
The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration recognising that it is a finite natural resource subject to depletion --Colin Campbell
Kaumllla ASPO s hemsida
Hubberts kurva
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Hubberts kurva
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Hubberts kurva
Kaumllla EIA
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Globala fossila resurser
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossila resurser aumlr aumlndliga
Fossilt energifoumlnster
2 670 miljarder fat konventionell olja inkl NGL
345 miljarder fat LTO
1 880 miljarder fat extra tung bitumen olja
970 miljarder fat behoumlver utvinnas foumlr att moumlta
efterfraringgan till 2035
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja
Konsumtion 1965 ndash 2012 ca 1 170 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 2002 ndash 2012 ca 370 tusen miljoner fat
Konsumtion 1992 ndash 2002 ca 290 tusen miljoner fat
Kaumllla BP statistical review Earth Policy Institute
IEA proven reserves ca 1 700
BP statistical review proven reserves ca 1 669
Miljarder fat
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Totala tillgaringngar konventionella raringoljor
ldquoResources on this scale are more than su1048888cient to meet the projected demand for conven1048888onal crude oil to 2035 even given the uncertain1048888es over the size of reserves growth and undiscovered oilrdquo Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Faumlltstorlek oumlver tid
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Okonventionella resurser
Andelen okonventionella resurser av totalt producerat var 10 1990
12 2000 och 20 2012 ndash prognos 13 del 2035
NGL s 145 och 55 Bitumen oljesand och skifferolja Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Foumlrdelning av utvinningen mellan
kategorierna
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Foumlrdelning av okonventionell utvinning
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 2
Myth 2 Peak Oil ndash there is an imminent
shortage of fossil fuel resources
The Reality There is no shortage in sight The
continued discovery of new resources and the
emergence of new technologies that both enable
the release of unconventional oil and gas and
improve the recovery rates from existing fields
have already multiplied the available fossil fuel
reserves by a factor of four and this trend will
continue Kaumllla WEC
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
Kaumllla WEC
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Global energiutveckling ndash per energislag
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Fossil dominans utan nya aringtgaumlrder
Oljan fortfarande stoumlrst men minskar sin relativa andel
Foumlrnybart oumlkar mest ndash fraringn laringg nivaring
Naturgas kraftig tillvaumlxt ndash CO2-koppling
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Global efterfraringga olja till 2035
Asien dominerar
India vaumlxer snabbare aumln Kina fraringn 2020
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013 WEO 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Oljeanvaumlndning globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2012
New Policy Scenario
Current Policy Scenario
450 policy scenario
Transportsektorns andel
2035 60 - 52 2011
60 mbd
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Fracking teknologin
Bild Lifetransplanet
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Global produktion LTO
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Biodrivmedel global utveckling
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013 2011
Brasilien nettoexportoumlr oumlver tid
Etanol dominerar
Andel okonventionella produkter 2035 - 20
Andelen el i transportsektorn 2 2035
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 3
Myth 3 Demand growth will be fully met by the new
clean energy sources
The Reality WEC analysis in the World Energy Scenarios
shows that despite significant growth in the relative
contribution of renewables from 15 today to a figure
between 20 and 30 in 2050 in absolute terms the
volume of fossil fuels used to meet global energy demand
will be 16000 MTOE in the Jazz (the more consumer-
driven scenario) and 10000 MTOE in Symphony (the more
voter-driven scenario) compared to 10400 MTOE in 2010
This represents a 5 decrease in the absolute amount of
fossil fuels in Symphony but a 55 increase in Jazz Kaumllla WEC
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
Kaumllla WEC
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Drivmedelsutveckling - vaumlg - globalt
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
IEA New Policy Scenario
Energibehovet oumlkar med
13 per aringr
Andelen fossila drivmedel
ca 90 2035
Fortsatt dieseltrend 31
mbd 2035
Vaumltgas och fuel cell
Naturgas framfoumlr allt inom
tung transport - Sjoumlfart
Biodrivmedel 8 2035
Evolution eller revolution
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 4
Myth 4 We can reduce global GHG
emissions by 50 by 2050
The Reality According to the WECrsquos World
Energy Scenarios even in the best case we will
see a near doubling of global greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to where
we should be in 2050 to meet the 450 parts per
million CO2 reference adopted by many At
worst GHG emissions could increase by over
four-fold Kaumllla WEC
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
Kaumllla WEC
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse diesel FAME i
dieselekvivalenter
Kaumllla Argus SPBI bearbetning
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Prisjaumlmfoumlrelse bensin etanol i
bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla F H Licht SPBI bearbetning
Krl
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 5
Myth 5 Current business models and markets
are delivering
The Reality WEC analysis shows that energy
markets are become increasingly complex driven
by accelerated change in energy policy
technological innovation and consumer
expectations Current market designs and
business models are unable to cope with the
increasing renewable shares decentralised
systems or growing information architecture Kaumllla WEC
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 6
Myth 6 Current programs will deliver universal
access to energy within the next 10 to 15 years
The Reality Universal access is far from becoming a
reality While acknowledging recent progress and
current programs to reduce energy poverty the WECrsquos
analysis shows that on current paths between 730
million and 880 million people for Jazz and Symphony
respectively will still be without access to electricity in
2030 and between 320 million and 530 million people
in 2050 globally
Kaumllla WEC
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Myt 7
Myth 7 On a global scale capital is cheap and
abundant
The Reality Capital is extremely sensitive to
perceived political and regulatory risks Moreover
due to the growing pressures on public finances in
most countries public funds will not be available to
substitute or augment the private financing of
energy initiatives
Kaumllla WEC
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Prislaumlget i naumlrtid
bull USA Kanada och Brasilien oumlkar sin utvinning
bull Irak har ambitioner paring oumlkad utvinning
bull Iran kan oumlka sin utvinning
bull Libyen och Nigeria har inrikesproblem
bull Call on OPEC sjunker
bull Slutsats
bull Mer talar foumlr stabila eller moumljligen naringgot laumlgre priser aumln motsatsen i naumlrtid ndash Brasklapp ovaumlntade haumlndelser
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Tack foumlr intresset wwwspbise
ulfsvahnspbise
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Sammanfattning bull Globalt oumlkat energibehov
bull Globalt dominerar oljan transportsektorn i aringrtionden framoumlver
bull Effektivisering och elektrifiering viktig
bull Foumlrnybara braumlnslen kommer att oumlka
bull Etanol dominerar ndash HVO ndash annan biokomponentproduktion
bull Konventionella foumlrnybara drivmedel dominerar
okonventionella oumlkar
bull Nya braumlnslen med nya logistikkrav har en
introduktionsbarriaumlr
bull Foumlrnybara drivmedel dyrare aumln fossila ndash Behov av styrmedel
bull Europa i otakt med resten av vaumlrlden
bull Europa i otakt internt
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Produktionskostnad foumlr olika kategorier Olja
Kaumllla IEA Resources to Reserves 2013
Vid 100 $fat aumlr alla
kaumlnda tekniker
loumlnsamma
Konventionella resurser
har vaumlldigt olika
kostnadsnivaringer utanfoumlr
MENA
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Tillgaringngar proved reserves 1992 ndash 2012 olja och gas
Olja rp index 53 aringr Gas rp index 56 aringr
Kaumllla BP statistical review 2013
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Definitioner IEA
Kaumllla IEA WEO 2013
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Problem i dagens energimodeller
bull Subventionssystem ndash fossilt
och foumlrnybart
bull Relativa marknadspriser
fossilt ndash foumlrnybart
bull Mottagaren
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
Uppskattade produktionskostnader
biodrivmedel uttryckt i bensinekvivalenter
Kaumllla SOU FFF-utredningen
Bensin vaumlrldsmarknadspris
