Energiewende History Status Future · PV –What is the ... Source: Agentur für Erneuerbare...
Transcript of Energiewende History Status Future · PV –What is the ... Source: Agentur für Erneuerbare...
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For our Environment
EnergiewendeHistory – Status – Future
Dr. Harry Lehmann
General Director
“Environmental Planning and Sustainability Strategies”
Federal Environmental Agency (UBA)
Version November 2016
Presentation based on Material from UBA / Renac Berlin / Federal Foreign Off. (FFO) / BMWI / BMUB
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What have you heard about the ENERGIEWENDE?
Source: RENAC / FFOThe Energiewende relates to all of these topics.
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The Energiewende is a fundamental restructuring of the entire energy system
and energy policy.
What is the Energiewende?
Source: RENAC / FFO
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The Energiewende started decades ago: Milestones
Sources: Öko Institut; BMU; Rocky Mountain Institute; Wuppertal Institut; H. Lehmann
1973 – Oil Crisis
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0
5
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35
40
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100
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250
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
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2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Ele
ctr
icit
y g
en
era
tio
n (
TW
h)
Geothermal Energy
Photovoltaics
Biomass
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
1990:
PV programme
“1.000 Roofs”
1991:
Electricity
Feed-In Law
2000:
First EEG
2014:
EEG Amendment
2010:
Energy Concept
2017:
Auctions
Source: UBA / Ecofys 2015, AGEE-Stat 2016 et.al.
The Energiewende started decades ago: Milestones
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The Energiewende is NOT limited to the power sector, but going far beyond. It is
multidimensional and affects many more interconnected areas.
The Energiewende is multidimensional
International
relations Technology,
Research, ITAgriculture
Mobility
Energy
efficiency
Grid upgrade
Electricity
Market reform
Households +
consumers
Finance
and investors
Nuclear waste
storage Storage
Conventional
power plants
Renewable
heat and power
Social issues,
public acceptance
EU
Source: RENAC / FFO
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Historical Hopes + Benefits of the Energiewende
Source: BMWi 2014, ERGO Kommunikation / H.Lehmann
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Benefits
Gross employment –
Impacts of renewable energies on the job market 2004 - 2013
Source: O’Sullivan et al. (2014): Bruttobeschäftigung durch
erneuerbare Energien in Deutschland im Jahr 2013. Total (2013) 370000
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Benefits - reduce costs of energy imports
Renewable sources of energy saved € 8,8 billion in 2014.
Data source: BMWi 2015
18.624.0 26.0 25.1
22.2
6.6
7.1
10.09.1
8.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Saved energy imports in billion €
Saved energy imports -ENERGY EFFICIENCY Saved energy imports - RENEWABLES
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Benefits – Ownership of renewable energy installations
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Installed renewable electricity capacity (in GW)
The installed renewable capacity increased constantly in the last decade.
0 1 2 3 4 6 1118
2533 36 38 40
15 17 1821
2224
26
27
29
31
3439
45
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Wind
Geothermal
Sewage/Mine gas
Hydro
Biomass/Biogas
Solar PV
Source: AGEE-Stat 2016 / RENAC
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Electricity generation capacity in 2014 (in GW)
Half of a total installed electricity generating capacity (189 GW) is based
on renewable sources (87,8 GW).
12.7
23.3
34.4
26.9
39.2 38.2
6.910.3
7.7
NUCLEAR LIGNITE HARD COAL
NATURAL GAS
WIND PV BIOMASS HYDRO OTHER
Fossil: 84,6 GW Renewable: 94,6 GW
Source: BMWi 2016 / RENAC / Fraunhofer
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Electricity generation in 2016 (in GW)
Half of a total installed electricity generating capacity (189 GW) is based
on renewable sources (87,8 GW).Source: Agora
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PV – What is the global status?
Global Cumulated PV capacity grew to 178 GW over the past decade.
0.79.2
15.823.2
40.3
70.5
100.5
138.9
178.0
229.3
0
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100
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250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cumulated global PV capacity (in GWp)
Sources: SPE/EPIA 2016, EurObserv’ER 2016 for 2015
Leading countries (cumulative capacity
end 2015 in GWp):
China: 43 GW (2015)
Germany: 40 GW (2015)
Japan: 23 GW (2014)
United States: 19 GW (2014)
Italy: 19 GW (2015)
United Kingdom: 8,9 GW (2015)
France: 6,5 GW (2015)
Spain: 4.9 GW (2015)
Australia: 4.0 GW (2014)
Belgium: 3,2 GW (2015)
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RES levelized cost of electricity in Europe 2014, 2020, 2030
Renewables are increasingly competitive with conventional power plants.
Source: Fraunhofer ISI 2015
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FAQ about the Energiewende – electricity cost for industry
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Industriestrompreise in D (cent per kWh)
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FAQ about the Energiewende – Social
There is broad consensus in Germany about the nuclear phase-out and
the support for the Energiewende.
66%
92%
75%
71%
67%
82%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Taking a lead role to carry out theEnergiewende was a good decision.
Renewable energy deployment, expansionand use is important
Renewable energies help creating a safe futureenvironment for our children and grandchildren
Renewable energy deploymentprotects the climate
Renewable energy sources reduceGermany's import dependency
The targets of the Energiewendeare reasonable
Percentage of people that agree or strongly agree with the given statement
Does the German public accept and support the Energiewende? How is
public acceptance achieved?
Source: Agentur für Erneuerbare Energie 2014, Forsa 2013
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Targets and action fields of the Energiewende
ClimateRenewable
EnergiesEfficiency
GHG
(vs. 1990)Elec. Total Total
Energy-
productivityBuilding
2020 - 40 % 35% 18% - 20%
Increase
to
2,1 % p.a.
Rate
1 % 2 %
p.a.
2030 - 55 % 50% 30%
2040 - 70 % 65% 45%
2050 - 80–95 % 80% 60% - 50%
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Targets and action fields of the Energiewende
Aims (Article 4):
• Holding the global average temperature increase to „well below 2
°C“ and persuing efforts to limit to
1.5 °C
• Peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible
• Net zero balance in the second half of this century
• Means decarbonization of all major industries !!!
• Germany: GHG reduction of up to 95 % by 2050.
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Pillars and action fields of the Energiewende
Source: BMWi 2014
The energy transition’s foundation are renewables and reduced energy consumption.
Renewable Energy
Key legislation:
Renewable Energy Sources Act
Renewable Energy Heat Act
• Steady growth
• Environmentally friendly
Market and system
integration
Energy research and
development
Supporting fields of action
European energy and
climate policy
Key legislation:
Energy Saving Ordinance
Heating Cost Ordinance
• Reduce energy consumption
• Cost-efficient
Energy Efficiency
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UBA-Study: GHG-neutral Germany in 2050
Future
Source: UBA 2014
PT X
Electricity
Industry
Waste
TransportHeatingCooling
Land Use
Agriculture
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UBA-Study: GHG-neutral Germany in 2050
Qualitative representation of the energy flow in the
UBA THGND 2050 Scenario
Future
Source: UBA 2014
Possible !!!
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• Profiles, activities, positions of
major actors of the Energiewende
in Germany
• Contacts in politics, industry and
society
• Further information and weblinks
The Federal Foreign Office has published the information brochure „Who is Who“
of the Energiewende, profiling the relevant actors and contacts in Germany.
Source: Foreign Office 2015
Actors: Information brochure: „Who is Who”
DOWNLOAD:
Information
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Source: Foreign Office and BMWI
• Information by the Foreign Office
about Germany and the energy
transition
• Available in German, English,
French, Spain, Portuguese, Turkish,
Russian and Chinese
• https://www.deutschland.de/en/topic/
environment/energy-transition
• Information by BMWi about all
aspects related to the energy
transition
• Partially in English
• www.bmwi.de
Information
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UBA Discussion paper to the Climate Action Plan 2050
English version of this position paper is on our Website
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Danke! – Thank you !
Dr. Harry Lehmann ([email protected])
http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en
Germany 2050 - A Greenhouse Gas-Neutral Country https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/germany-2050-a-greenhouse-gas-neutral-country
Integration of Power to Gas/ Power to Liquids into the ongoingtransformation processhttps://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationenintegration-of-power-to-gas-power-to-liquids-into
Proceedings of the Workshop „Decarbonisation – 100 % Renewable Energy and more“ from November 2015 https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/proceedings-of-the-workshop-decarbonisation-100