1

Emissions From Maritime Shipping

Sector In A Freight Context

James Corbett, P.E., Ph.D.

Presentation to OECD/ECMT

JTRC WG on Transport GHG

Reduction Strategies

21-22 May 2007

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Freight is an important

multimodal transport function

Shipping is an integral part of global trade

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Freight is an increasing

contributor to the economy

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Ind

ex

(2

00

0 =

1.0

)

U.S. GDP SUM of goods and services

10%

12%

21%

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Air pollution and Climate Impacts

from Ships

Two reasons to reduce ship emissions:

Ships contribute to problems TODAY

Growth in shipping makes problems worse

TOMORROW

Other reasons (depending on perspective)

Controls more cost-effective than other modes

Impacts mitigation may be asymmetric

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Mode share comparison

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

Road Shipping Aviation Rail

Carg

o V

olu

me (

Gtk

m)

U.S. Freight EU25 Freight Seaborne TradeEE

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Ships are more heterogeneous

than onroad transport

Tug and towboats 1-30 barges: 0.5 - 4 MW

High speed ferries 150-350 passengers: 2-4 MW

Roll-on\Roll-off 200-600 vehicles: 15-25 MW

Tankers 250,000 tons of oil: 25-35 MW

LNG fleet: 20-30 MW

Container 1750 TEU: 20-25 MW

4300TEU: 35-45 MW

6000 TEU: 55-65 MW

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1.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

Reg

iste

red

Fleet

Fue

l Use

Reg

iste

red

Fleet

CO2

(as C)

Reg

iste

red

Fleet

NOx (a

s N)

Reg

iste

red

Fleet

SOx (a

s S)

Reg

iste

red

Fleet

PM

Reg

iste

red

Fleet

Eng

ine

HC

Car

go H

C

Met

hane

Total N

MHC

Black

Car

bon

Org

anic C

arbo

n

Ref

riger

ants

Tg

pe

r Y

ea

r

Fuel and CO2 Traditional Air Pollutants and Black Carbon HFCs

Ship emissions estimates

boundedWhiskers: 5th and 95th bounds

Boxes: 25th and 75th bounds

Points: Best estimates of various studies

Best Estimate: ~15.4%

of anthropogenic NOxBest Estimate: ~7.8%

of anthropogenic SOx

Best Estimate: ~2.7%

of anthropogenic CO2

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Ship traffic differs by vessel type

Trade driven by commodity demand & resource supply

Containership

Tanker

Bulk Carrier

General Cargo

Refrigerated Cargo

Ro-Ro

Passenger

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… connected to domestic freight system

Trade import patterns are clear …

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Different top-down proxies

provide different regional pictures

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And these differences may produce different impacts assessments

11

Forecasting Summary

Power-based trends used for forecasting

First-order indicator of proportional change in emissions,

adjusted for control measures

Forecasts are primarily extrapolations of BAU that can

be bounded and/or adjusted

North American trends validated by comparison with other

modal trends and ship trade-energy models, at multiple scales

Ship emissions growth rates are faster than GDP

Future emissions with IMO-compliant SECA will

be greater than base year emissions in 2002.

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Fast-growing sectors can dominate forecast

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Mil

lio

n M

etr

ic T

on

s

container tons, approx.

reefer tons

dry bulker tons

chemicals tanker tons

gas carrier tons

oil tanker tons

total tons

Data Forecast using

Persistence

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Millio

n T

EU

s

TEU throughput Total Cargo TEUs Export TEUs Import TEUs

U.S. Containership energy use driven by

strong growth in “heavy-leg” activity

Note the significant activity to move empty containers

Trade-based models can account for this

… through utilization factors, etc.

~6.5% ~7%

~10%

Linkage: Containership cargoes generate truck, rail activity

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Shipboard power trends indicate

strong growth in energy demand

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Avera

ge In

sta

lled

Po

wer

(kW

)

15

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Seaborne Trade (tons) Seaborne Trade (ton-miles)

OECD HFO Int'l Sales Seaborne Trade (trend since 1985)

World Marine Fuel (Eyring, 2005) Installed Power-This work

Extrapolating trends since ~1980-85

depending on data source

Building a valid range of world forecasts

… starting with trade and energy

Con

ce

pt ill

ustr

atio

n c

red

ite

d to

dis

ucssio

ns w

ith

M.

Gra

ng

er

Mo

rga

n,

Carn

eg

ie M

ello

n U

niv

ers

ity

Implication: World (ocean) freight emissions on

track to double before 2050 (pre-2030?)

North America doubles between 2015-2020

China supplies NA and EU – faster growth?

16

Next Steps

Recognize

different growth

rates and re-

forecast spatially

Consider policy

and technology

interventions

Couple better with

economics trends

Go multimodal

Expand globally

Container Ship Tanker

Reefer Bulk Carrier

Ro-Ro Passenger Vessel General Cargo

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Approaches to setting ship targets

1. Reduce emissions to improve performance,

irrespective of growth. DO SOMETHING SOON

2. Reduce emissions to hold current exposure

(impacts?) constant at some base year, offsetting

trade-driven growth in emissions. HOLD THE LINE

3. Reduce emissions by X amount, maintaining

emissions reductions (impacts?) from some base

year, despite trade growth. MITIGATE IMPACTS

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Menu of options to be matched

with strategies and fleet

Environmental control technologies Pre-combustion: e.g., water emulsions

In-engine: e.g., humidification

Post-combustion: e.g., SCR, scrubbers, PM controls

Only technology (and cost) combos get multiple pollutants

Nearly all carry CO2 penalties of 1-3% for retrofits

Alternative marine fuels and energy systemsCould double fuel price (freight rate ↑), and may require phase in

Operational (behavior) changesPossible in short term, possible multimodal logistics effects

Achieves reductions in CO2 and all pollutants (win-win)

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(Marine) Freight Transport

insights

Technology will involve fleet retrofits and new-builds

Economics determines role of alternative fuels

0.5% SECA or lower may be justified in large regions Health effects work ongoing, but SOx control benefits

appear greater than control costs

Reducing SOx and NOx will modify climate assessments

Most abatements increases CO2; reduced emissions change ozone and indirect aerosol forcing

Market incentives promising at several scales

Operational logistics changes may involve all modes

Decades required to completely achieve change

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GIFT Network Model (under development)

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Total fuel cycle

comparisons

Winebrake, J.J., J.J. Corbett, and P.E. Meyer, A Total Fuel Life-Cycle

Analysis Of Energy And Emissions From Marine Vessels, Paper No. 07-

0817, in Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting,

Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 2007

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Co

urtesy

: Natio

nal M

aritime M

useu

m, B

ritain

A modern fleet of ships does not so much make use of the sea as

exploit a highway. -- Joseph Conrad, The Mirror of the Sea, Ch. 22, 1906

Discussion welcome

Contact:

James J. Corbett, P.E.

University of Delaware

jcorbett@udel.edu

Telephone: 302-831-0768EE

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World Fleet

289 Mtons

Registered Fleet

248 Mtons

Cargo Fleet

203 Mtons

248 Mtons209 Mtons

175 Mtons

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000

Metric Tonnes Fuel

Perc

en

tile

International Bunker Statistics (with statistical error bars)

Estimated Cumulative Distribution of Cargo Fleet Fuel Consumption

Estimated Cumulative Distribution of Registered Fleet (Cargo + Non-Cargo Ships) Fuel Consumption

Estimated Cumulative Distribution World Fleet (Cargo + Non-Cargo + Military Ships) Fuel Consumption

Best estimates (Corbett and Koehler, JGR, 2003)

Lower specific fuel consumption rates

Fewer at-sea and in-port days, assuming only 1% of vessels are laid up, lower specific fuel consumption

Fewer at-sea and in-port days, more days laid up, lower specific fuel consumption

Best practices for CMV inventories

Step 1: Identify the vessel(s) to be modeled, and engines in service

Step 2: Estimate the engine service hours for the voyage or voyage segment

Step 3: Determine the engine load profiles, including power and duty cycle

Step 4: Apply emissions or fuel consumption rates for specific engine/fuel combinations

Step 5: Estimate emissions or fuel consumption for the voyage or voyage segment

Steps 6+: Assign emissions spatially and temporally both in and out of port

regions

[Corbett and Koehler, 2003; Corbett and Koehler, 2004]

Uncertainty remains, but bounding is improving

25

6577

124

213

240

106.4 108.2

127135.9

164

280

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Milli

on

Metr

ic T

on

s F

uel

Fuel Use (Eyring et al) International Marine Fuel Statistics

Fuel consumption over past 50 years

Fro

m E

yri

ng

et

al., P

art

1,

JGR

, 2

00

5

Containerized shipping and globalization explains diversion

between usage and IEA energy allocation inventories

26

Looking for preferred technology frontiers

among uncertain, variable alternatives

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Change in CO2 Emissions (%)

Ch

an

ge

in N

Ox

Em

iss

ion

s (

%)

Decrease both

NOx and CO2

Decrease NOx

Increase CO2

Increase NOx

Decrease CO2

Increase both

NOx and CO2

Hydrogen fuel and

Advanced propulsion

Other fuels and prime movers

Operational Measures Traditional

Control

Technologies

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

Weight Assigned to Environmental Performance

(NOx reduction)

Weig

hte

d S

co

re Optimal Choice Line

Option 1: SCR

Option 2: Water in Air

Option 3: Water Fuel Emulsion

Option 4: Repower

Option 5: Alternate Fuel

Assumes ~25% fuel economy benefits for repowering

DPF

$43,275

($17,941 - $134,171)

DOC

$2318

($1062 - $7243)EMD

$266,187

($42,572 - $787,803)

FIE

$20,870

($4061 - 61,342)

IAF

$8526

($3907 - $26,645)

LNC

$37,225

($7596 - $111,014)

EGR

$30,336

($6332 - $90,549)

SCR

$71,525

($27,103 - $220,327)

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

ECT NOx Performance

EC

T P

M P

erf

orm

an

ce

EMD

DOC

SCR

EGR

LNC

IAF

FIE

DPF

Percent PM Reduction

Percent NOx Reduction

Cost (T

housands o

f Dolla

rs)

EMD

DOC

SCR

EGR

LNC

IAF

FIE

DPF

EMD

DOC

SCR

EGR

LNC

IAF

FIE

DPF

Percent PM Reduction

Percent NOx Reduction

Cost (T

housands o

f Dolla

rs)

Source: Corbett, Marine Transportation and Energy Use, Encyclopedia of Energy, 2004.

Corbett, J.J., and D.S. Chapman, Decision Framework for Emission Control Technology

Selection, Decision Analysis, Manuscript number AW-05-00171, Version 1, under revision, 2006.

27

Benefit-cost ratio of fuel switching Benefit-cost ratio of fuel switching … and scrubbing

$10$50$90$130$170$210$250$290$330$370$410$450$490$530

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

Fuel Price Premium ($/ton)

Be

nefits

of R

ed

uction

($

/to

n S

O2)

4 -5

3 -4

2 -3

1 -2

0 -1

$10$50$90$130$170$210$250$290$330$370$410$450$490$530

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

Fuel Price Premium ($/ton)

Be

nefits

of R

ed

uction

($

/to

n S

O2)

4 -5

3 -4

2 -3

1 -2

0 -1

Wang, C., and J.J. Corbett, A Preliminary Estimation of Costs and Benefits

for Reducing Sulfur Emissions from Cargo Ships in the U.S. West Coastal

Waters, Paper 07-3402, in Transportation Research Board 86th Annual

Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 2007

Not yet published. Do not copy or quote without permission

28

Summary of IPCC forecast trendsIPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios Summary

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Ex

oJo

ule

s (

EJ

) fo

r P

ow

er;

Tri

llio

n U

S$ f

or

GN

P/G

DP

A1 AIM GNP/GDP

A1 AIM Oil Use

A2 AIM GNP/GDP

A2 AIM Oil Use

B2 AIM GNP/GDP

B2 AIM Oil Use

B1 AIM GNP/GDP

B1 AIM Oil Use

Cargo growth should follow GNP

if US consumption is trade dominated

Petroleum use represents all sectors

(dominated by passenger vehicles).

Not a good trend line for marine cargo

transportation sector in isolation

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0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Metr

ic T

on

s S

O2 (

glo

bal)

4.1% Growth (This work) 1.5% Fuel-sulfur at 4.1% Growth

1.0% Fuel-sulfur at 4.1% Growth 0.5% Fuel-sulfur at 4.1% Growth

IMO GHG-study growth (3%) 1.5% Fuel-sulfur at 3% Growth

2002 Baseline

Bounding insights to transform

policy debate, focus dialogue

Is further debate on forecast rates more useful

than consideration of reduction targets that

offset growth in trade under range of trends?

30

North American Results:Hypothetical IMO-compliant SECA (1.5% S) reduces

future emissions from BAU

… but not compared to base year

Reduces 700,000 metric tons from 2020 no-SECA

Increases by ~2 million Mtons over 2002 base-year

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Freight transport and environment:

multi-scale, multimodal challenge bigger than ships

More sustainable freight logistics, inventory, production, and consumption

Evaluation of economic drivers/barriers to innovation and diffusion of sustainable concepts, regulatory jurisdiction and standards

Design of transportation strategies to achieve economic, energy, and environmental goals that improve stewardship faster than growth

Forecasting trends and alternative mitigation pathways

Intergrated measures of sustainable transportation beyond air pollution

Impacts analysis: Environmental and health effects

Multi-scale characterization: Emissions inventories, fate-transport modeling

Emissions and discharges: Air pollution formation and control technologies

System attributes: Vessel or vehicle, engine, and propulsion design

32

Jurisdictional constraints

Only Enforceable

by Treaty Nations

Treaties often are weaker

than national laws

Jurisdictional conflict occurs when

national policy doesn't address

local or regional problems

Ports try to address policy

problems AND attract cargoes

for regional economy

Some nations don't

participate, even though

their ships sail globally

International

Treaty

National

Sovereignty

State/Province

Authority

Port

Authority

National

Sovereignty

National

Sovereignty

Enforced by Port

State

Enforced by Flag

State

Regional Concerns:

Security

Pollution

Safe Navigation

Federal Laws

State Laws

Economic instruments can work

at these levels faster than treaty

or multinational or federal action

- if compatible at larger scales

Can treaty consensus achieve

these target ranges at all?

33

Intermodal Comparisons:

Infrastructure Factors

Emissions

(g/kg fuel)2

NOx CO

Carbon

intensity3

($/tC)

Fraction

of CO2

(%)

Size of

fueling

stations

(power)

No. of

fueling

stations

Marine 71 16 950 6 175 MW 28-404

Autos1 14 130 2300 56 2.7 MW 180,000

Aircraft 3 17 2100 8.7 240 MW 725

Heavy trucks 30 17 2800 16 20 MW 5,500

Rail 76 9 3500 2.3

Ships may be preferred niche market for

new technology innovation

All figures for the United States. All figures rounded to two significant digits. (1) Includes both automobiles and light

trucks. (2) Computed using estimated actual emissions and fuel use. (3) End user expenditures divided by carbon

emissions. (4) Total of companies in the large U.S. ports providing international marine fuels (@ 4-10 per port). (5) Large

hub airports

So

urce: F

arrell, A.E

., D.W

. Keith

, and

J.J. Co

rbett, A

strategy fo

r intro

ducin

g h

yd

rogen

into

transp

ortatio

n, E

nerg

y Po

licy, 31

(13

), 13

57

-13

67

, 20

03

35

Building Empirical Network

~9000 segments & ~1700 ports

~170,000 ship trips/yr in North America

36

Spatial Distribution in Multimodal ContextSpatial Distribution in Multimodal Context