EMIS 7300SYSTEMS ANALYSIS METHODS

Spring 2006

Dr. John Lipp

Copyright © 2006 John Lipp

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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Course Description

Introduction to modeling & analysis concepts, methods and techniques used in systems engineering, design and development of products and services, and associated production & logistics systems and analysis of operational system performance.

Specific Topics include:

• Decision analysis, utility theory, and game theory.

• Probabilistic & statistical methods.

• Linear Regression.

• Optimization techniques.

• Monte Carlo Simulation.

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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What is Analysis?

The purpose of an analysis is to provide illumination and visibility -- to expose some problem in terms that are as simple as possible.

Many people who like to call themselves ‘analysts’ are really ‘calculators.’ They spend more time having calculations made on a computer than they spend in analyzing the results.

Ref (1): excerpts from Major General Glenn A. Kent’s ‘On Analysis’

Courtesy Dr. Stracener

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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What is Analysis? (cont.)

The best education for an analyst is in the school of doing. This presupposes that the person involved is alert, curious, and eager to work. Further, he should feel somewhat at home with integral and differential calculus. But, given this background, the best way to become an analyst - if there is indeed such a type as distinct from other people - is to work on problems. Guidance and assistance from someone who has been through similar studies are quite helpful. But, ultimately, good studies are produced by hard and earnest work. They are the result of going over and over and over and over some problem with a view to reducing and collapsing it on the one hand and providing illumination and visibility on the other.

Ref (1): excerpts from Major General Glenn A. Kent’s ‘On Analysis’

Courtesy Dr. Stracener

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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The Analysis Process

1. Define the problem and formulate an objective.

2. Identify the analysis options for accomplishing the objective and down-select to the preferred option.

3. Perform the analysis and draw conclusions.

4. Present the analysis results, both technically and from the “layperson” perspective.

Courtesy Dr. Stracener

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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Examples of Industrial Analyses

• Allocation business acquisition funds

• Probabilistic estimation of product development

• Cost/benefit analysis of product improvement

• Design tolerance analysis

• Design trade studies

• Evaluation of design alternatives

• Reliability Engineering

• Statistical Process Control

• Design of Experiments

Courtesy Dr. Stracener

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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Text Books

1. Douglas C. Montgomery and George C. Runger, Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 3rd edition (2003), Wiley, ISBN 0-471-20454-4.

New edition is coming out soon… 3rd edition on fire sale!

Download the errata – there are many typos in the answers.

2. Barry Render, Ralph M. Stair, and Michael E. Hanna, Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th edition (2006), Prentice-Hall, Inc., ISBN 0-13-185702-9.

Available from the SMU bookstore is a special edition that contains only the chapters used for EMIS 7300.

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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Laptop Computer & Calculator

• A basic, laptop computer is required.

– Nothing fancy - I used a 4 year old Dell Inspiron 8000 myself last semester.

• Excel, Powerpoint, and Word are required.

– Student editions of these popular Microsoft products available at SMU http://www.smucomputercorner.com .

• Laptop computers will be stowed for the quizzes and the final exam!

– A scientific calculator is thus required for the quizzes and the final exam.

– You will want to be familiar with its statistical functions.

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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Course Requirements

• Homework: 20%

– Due 3 weeks after the class in which assigned at 8 PM.– Late Homework assessed 10% penalty per day.

• Quizzes: 40%

– Homework for the previous class will reviewed at the beginning of each class.

– Then a 30-45 minute quiz on that material will be given.– Open book and open notes.

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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Course Requirements (cont.)

• Final Examination: 30%

– Given during last class.– 1.5 – 2 hours in length.– Comprehensive!– Open book and open notes.

• Project: 10%

– Presentation (last class day).– Final Report.– Team Evaluation.

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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Grading

• Approximately two thirds of the class points are assigned to the mechanics of working problems.

• The other third I assign to properly setting up problems and properly interpreting the results of computations.

• Being able to convert a problem description into the mathematics, and then interpret the analysis is the difference between a B and A.

• The class' grade curve follows a square root function

– CURVED % SCORE = 10*SQRT(RAW % SCORE)– Thus, 64% RAW % SCORE = C+/B- cutoff, and– 81% RAW % SCORE = B+/A- cutoff.

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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Electronic Submission Guidelines

• Send your electronic submissions to jlipp@mail.smu.edu. If you send them to me at work, I forward them to myself, so save me the effort.

• Use a short, unique file name which identifies both whom submitted it, and what is contained inside.

– Poor: doctor_john_lipp_decision_theory_homework.ppt emis7300_project_idea.ppt

– Good: jlipp_hw1.ppt jlipp_proj_idea.ppt

• Your full name should appear on each page. Otherwise I won't know which work is yours when I print it out to grade.

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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Electronic Submission Guidelines (cont.)

• Scans should be legible and compact.

– You may have to use the FINE or other setting if you are scanning with a FAX machine.

– Over 200 dpi will tend to result in large files.– Under 150 dpi will tend to result in unreadable text.– Grayscale is better than color.

EACH VIOLATION WILL COST YOU A POINT!

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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Blackboard

Blackboard (electronic classroom) will be used for the following

• Homework reminders,

• Homework solutions,

• Announcements,

• Group project,

• Grades.

EMIS 7300Copyright 2006 Dr. John Lipp

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Final Thought

EVERTHING IS NEGOTIABLE IF YOU ASK