Emirates NBD Asset Management in partnership with Jupiter …€¦ · China the new “buzz” word...

Emirates NBD Asset Management in partnership with Jupiter Asset Management

The Annual Think TankWhat’s the big deal about equities?

Welcome Address

Tariq Bin Hendi, Senior Executive OfficerEmirates NBD Asset Management

Business update

• 1

• 2

• 3

• 4

MENA Markets: Opportunities for the smart investor

Yong Wei Lee, Head of MENA EquitiesEmirates NBD Asset Management

Emirates MENA Top Companies Fund

Performance data

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

2010 -0.83% 4.04% 9.13% 0.74%-

10.44%-2.24% 3.91% -0.53% 5.38% 1.38% -0.23% 4.53% 14.35%

2011 -4.08% -5.43% 6.61% 2.62% -1.50% -1.46% -1.16% -2.64% -1.295 2.73% -2.01% 1.92% -6.11%

2012 1.87% 5.24% 2.71% -0.21% -4.68% -2.25% 2.88% 2.48%-

0.57%0.25% -1.59% 2.35% 8.08%

2013 5.25% 0.27% 2.46% 4.02% 3.60% -1.07% 6.42% -0.85% 1.67% 0.71% 2.43% 4.96% 33.90%

2014 3.86% 5.69% 3.16% 3.53% 2.90% -6.84% 9.80% 5.52% 0.17% -4.21% -4.17% -7.39% 10.89%

2015 0.01% 2.84% -5.09% 7.79% -0.04% -3.56% 0.59% -10.97% - - - - -9.17%

Source: ENBD AM

China the new “buzz” word

China’s currency devaluation in August sent shock waves globally

• Is this a repeat of 2008?

We don’t think so. 2008 was a liquidity crunch that arose from asset price declines. Central Bankers

globally have kept monetary conditions loose since then.

• Is this a repeat of 1997 Asian financial crisis?

We don’t think so. Asian economies are more resilient today with current account surpluses and

lower USD obligations.

• So what is this?

It’s likely to be an adjustment to slower global growth. However, weak growth in China could result in

further currency weakness which will impact other EM currencies.

How has MENA performed in light of this?

30

50

70

90

110

130

MENA equity markets not slaves to oil price

Emirates MENA Top Companies Fund Brent MSCI Arabian Markets Index

Jan 2014 to 1st Sept 2015

Emirates MENA Top Companies Fund -1%

Brent -56%

MSCI Arabian Markets Index -12%

Source: ENBD AM, Bloomberg from 01.Jan.2014 to 01.Sep.2015

US oil production responding to low oil price

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

US oil rig count

-59%

Source: ENBD AM, Bloomberg from 12.Feb.2010 to 4.Sep.2015

Citigroup says funding squeeze to reduce shale output by c.500k bpd by

year end


80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Emirates MENA Top Companies Fund outperforms DM in USD terms

Emirates MENA Top Companies Fund MSCI World Index UK FTSE 100 Deutsche Boerse S&P 500

Jan 2014 to 1st Sept 2015

Emirates MENA Top Companies Fund -1%

MSCI World Index -4%

FTSE 100 Index -18%

Deutsche Boerse German Index -15%

S&P 500 +4%



40

60

80

100

120

140

Emirates MENA Top Companies Fund outperforms EM in USD terms

Emirates MENA Top Companies Fund China H SharesBrazil Stock Exchange India SENSEXRussia MICEX MSCI Emerging Markets Index


Performance

Emirates MENA Top Companies Fund

-1%

Brazil Stock Exchange -45%

Russia MICEX -44%

Performance

China H Shares -16%

India SENSEX +9%

MSCI Emerging Markets Index -21%

If there are headwinds ahead, which markets would you take shelter in?

UAE, Qatar and Kuwait Forex Reserves include SWF assets

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

China

Japan

UAE

Saudi Arabia

Switzerland

Kuwait

Taiwan

Brazil

Russia

India

Qatar

Adjusted FX Reserves (USD Billion)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Kuwait

Qatar

UAE

Switzerland

Saudi Arabia

Taiwan

Japan

China

Russia

Brazil

India

Foreign reserves per capita (USD per capita)

3,650

Source: ENBD AM, Bloomberg, IMF, SWIF (2015)

A. The ones with the most money

Developed Markets Emerging Markets GCC Markets


-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Kuwait

Germany

Qatar

Russia

United Arab Emirates

China

Japan

Saudi Arabia

India

United States

Brazil

United Kingdom

Current Account/GDP (%)


Source: ENBD AM, IMF, CIA Factbook (2015)

A. The ones with the best balance of trade and lowest debt

-10% 40% 90% 140% 190% 240%

Japan

United Kingdom

Germany

United States

Brazil

India


Qatar

China

Russia

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

Debt/GDP


0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%


Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

China

Russia

Japan

Brazil

India

Germany

United Kingdom

United States

Adjusted Reserves/GDP


Source: ENBD AM, Bloomberg, IMF, CIA Factbook (2015)

A. The ones with the most money in relation to the size of the economy

45

47

49

51

53

55

57

59

61

PMI Data for Saudi Arabia, UAE and China

Saudi UAE China Brazil India Russia

Expansion

Contraction

UAE and Saudi Arabia growth robust while other EM markets show evidence of weak growth

Source: ENBD AM, Bloomberg as at August 2015

GCC macro data resilient

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000Saudi Arabia: Point of Sales (SAR Million)

Source: ENBD AM, Bloomberg from January 2005 to July 2015

Young demographics in GCC warrant investment into the economy

Source: ENBD AM, CIA, IMF (2015)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Saudi Arabia

India

Kuwait

UAE

Brazil

Qatar

China

United States

Russia

Germany

Japan

Median Age (years)


US oil production responding to low oil price

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

US oil production (‘000 bpd)

Source: ENBD AM, Bloomberg from 30.Jan.2010 to 30.Jun.2015

“Oil’s price collapse is closing down high cost production from Eagle Ford in Texas to Russia and the North Sea. The OPEC effort to defend

market share regardless of price appears to be having the intended effect” International

Energy Agency Sept 2015

Equities valuations not demanding in GCC

Region PE 16 P/B Dividend Yield

MENA 10.8x 1.5x 4.0%

MSCI World 14.3x 1.9x 2.9%

MSCI Emerging Markets 9.8x 1.2x 3.5%

Source: ENBD AM, Bloomberg as at 7th September 2015

Real Estate. Valuations not demanding in GCC

Hong Kong

Delhi

Singapore

London

Dubai

Tokyo

Geneva

Frankfurt

Mumbai

Riyadh

Abu Dhabi

Toronto

Montreal

Sydney

Moscow

New York

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

Re

sid

en

tia

l Pri

ce

/sq

m(U

SD

)

GDP/Capita (USD)

UAE Real Estate Attractive Relative to Global Peers

Cheaper

Source: ENBD AM, WRC, Global Property Guide & KPMG

Hong Kong

Delhi

Singapore

London

Dubai

Tokyo

Geneva

Frankfurt

Mumbai

Abu Dhabi

Toronto

Montreal

Sydney

Moscow

New York

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000G

ross R

en

tal Y

ield

Residential Price/sqm (USD)

UAE Delivering Attractive Yields

Cheaper

Strategy

• Holding above average cash levels of 7% - 10%

• Increase holdings in defensives (healthcare, consumer non-discretionary) underweight

cyclicals

• Buy and hold strategy outperforms momentum investing (timing the markets)

Time in the market not timing the market

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Buy and Hold vs. Sell and Buyback (S&P 500)

Buy and Hold Sell and Buy back

1,728%Return

770%Return

Sell and buy back methodology: Equities are sold to cash once a weekly 5%drop has occurred. The portfolio buys back into equities after a 5% rise in the equity markets (S&P 500).Source: ENBD AM, Bloomberg

Retail investor vs professional investor

We will ride out the current volatility. Buying stocks on cheap valuations to yield attractive returns over medium to long term (3-5 years)

The information and opinions expressed herein are made in good faith and are based on sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty,express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. These opinions are not intended to serve as authoritative investment advice andshould not be used in substitution for the exercise of ones own judgement. This information, including any expression of opinion, has been obtained from or isbased upon sources believed to be reliable, and is believed to be fair and not misleading. Any opinion or estimate contained in this presentation is subject tochange without notice. Neither Emirates NBD Group nor any of its directors or employees give any representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy orcompleteness of the information, nor do they accept any responsibility arising in any way (including by negligence) for errors in, or omissions from theinformation. For further details of the investment products available from the Emirates NBD Group, please contact your local Emirates NBD Bank PJSC /Emirates Islamic PJSC Branch. This document is provided for information and illustration purposes only. It does not constitute a solicitation, recommendation oroffer to buy or sell any specific investment product or subscribe to any specific investment management or advisory service. Prospective investors in a Fundmust obtain and carefully read the Fund’s most recent Prospectus and Supplement as well as seek separate, independent financial advice if required prior tomaking an investment in the Fund to assess the suitability, lawfulness and risks involved. This presentation is not for distribution to the general public but forintended recipients only and may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or part to any other person without the written consent ofEmirates NBD Asset Management Ltd. (“Emirates NBD AM”). Where this presentation relates to a Fund or an investment product licensed to be marketed, it isdirected to persons authorized to invest in the Fund / investment product, as applicable and residing in jurisdictions where the Fund / investment product isauthorized for distribution or where no such authorization is required. The Fund / investment product, where applicable, is intended for sophisticated investorsonly who understand the risks involved in investing in the Fund / investment product and can withstand any potential loss there from. The Fund / investmentproduct may not be guaranteed and historical performances are not indicative of the future or likely performance and should not be construed as being indicativeof or otherwise used as a proxy for the future or likely performance of the funds / investment products. The value of the investment and the income from it canfall as well as rise as the Funds / investment products are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Theinformation contained herein does not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any person. All Shari’acompliant products and services are approved by the Shari’a Supervisory Board of Emirates NBD Asset Management Limited. All Jersey domiciled funds areregulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Emirates NBD SICAV is domiciled in Luxembourg and regulated by the by the LuxembourgCommission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of investments and the income derivedfrom them may go down as well as up and you may not receive back all the money which you invest. This information has been distributed by Emirates NBD AMfor and on it’s own behalf. Emirates NBD AM is duly licensed and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The price of shares/units/notes and thevalue of segregated accounts and any income arising from them may fall as well as rise. When a subscription involves a foreign exchange transaction, it may besubject to the fluctuations of currency values, which may adversely affect the value, price of income of any security or related instrument mentioned in thispresentation. It should be noted that some investments may not be readily marketable. It may therefore be difficult for an investor to sell his/her investment orobtain reliable information about its value and the extent of the risks to which it is exposed. Further, some investment offerings are involved in highly specialisedforms of investment and involve risks and transaction costs not normally associated with standard investments in securities. Investment returns will fluctuate andare subject to market volatility, so that an investment when redeemed or sold, may be worth more or less than the original cost. Investments in property andother non-traditional asset classes may not be readily realisable and therefore a delay in paying redemption proceeds or significant costs in realising aninvestment might apply. © 2014 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The information, data, analyses and opinions (“Information”) contained herein: (1) include theproprietary information of Morningstar and its content providers; (2) may not be copied or redistributed except as specifically authorised; (3) do not constituteinvestment advice; (4) are provided solely for informational purposes; (4) are bit warranted to be complete, accurate or timely; and (6) may be drawn from funddata published on various dates. Morningstar is not responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other loses related to the Information or its use. Pleaseverify all of the Information before using it and don’t make any investment decisions except upon the advice of a professional financial advisor. Past performanceis no guarantee of future results. The value and income derived from investments may go down as well as up.

Disclaimer

Multi-asset funds: Reliable strategies for unreliable markets

David Lewis, Fund ManagerJupiter Asset Management

● Jupiter Independent Funds – team and process

○ Macroeconomics – major changes and dynamics

○ Market – valuations and investment themes

○ Portfolio – changes and positioning

Agenda

Amanda SillarsFund Management

Director

19 years’ experience

John Chatfeild-RobertsMain Board Director, Head of

Jupiter Independent Funds team


Algy Smith-MaxwellFund Management

Director


David LewisFund Manager


Alastair IrvineProduct Specialist


Jupiter Independent Funds team – Strong and well established

Best Multi-Manager/Asset Provider, winner, 6 years in a row (2009–14), Money Marketing Awards

Past performance is no guide to the future. Awards and ratings should not be taken as a recommendation.Years of industry experience as at 30.06.15. Note: Peter Lawery is a consultant to the Jupiter Independent Funds team, with 25 years of industry experience.

− An active, risk aware, long-term approach

− Combining macro analysis with a

Multi-manager approach

− Aim to invest

• In the right people

• In the right quantity

• Critically; at the right time

− Whilst accepting that

• We are never in possession of perfect

knowledge

• The world is constantly changing

• We are going to be wrong sometimes

and will have to change

− In this industry, the numbers never lie

When the facts change, I

change my mind.

What do you do, Sir?

John Maynard Keynes,

Economist

Awards and Ratings should not be taken as a recommendation

Jupiter Independent Funds team – More of an art than science

-50%

50%

150%

250%

350%

450%

Findlay Park American FE Equity Small Cap USA

Benefits

− Fund selection and asset allocation

− Diversification

− Timely portfolio adjustments

− Less paperwork

− Buying power

− Access to closed and institutional funds

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in future. Any holdings examples are used for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice. This fund may not be available for sale in your jurisdiction. Source: FE, Findlay Park, total return in USD, net income reinvested. Period over which James Findlay has been the lead manager on the fund, from 31.03.00 to 30.06.15.

A multi-manager approach, focusing on investing in talent

33

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in future.

Advantages of going global

− Diversification

− The best companies are spread far and

wide

− Idiosyncratic company dynamics

− Can use regional specialists or global

themes

− Flexible currency exposures

− Dynamic asset allocation

13.3%

28.9%

14.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Asset allocation of the GBP denominated multi-manager growth strategy

UK US Europe Japan Asia Emerging Markets Global Fixed Interest Gold Cash

2.1%

4.9%

3.9%

16.1%

11.1% 13.0%

10.0%

19.9%

3.3%

34

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in future. Historical example for illustrative purposes only. Source: Jupiter, 30.06.15.

Flexibility in fund selection but also asset allocation

We believe that active asset allocation is a moral obligation

21.2%

○ Jupiter Independent Funds – team and process

● Macroeconomics – major changes and dynamics



Jupiter Independent Funds team – More of an art than science

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Brent crude oil (US$/bl)

Brent crude oil

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.Source: Bloomberg, 31.08.15.

Oil prices have been a major talking point for much of the last year

Slowing demand, maintained output and increasing stocks have resulted in a big price drop

30

35

40

45

50

10

100

Brent oil ($) [lhs] China investment (% of GDP) [rhs]

30

35

40

45

50

500

1,000

2,000

4,000

8,000

16,000

Copper [lhs] China investment (% of GDP) [rhs]


China’s attempts to manage their transitioning economy are having a global impact

Inflation and commodity prices are being directly affected

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

Performance of global currencies versus the world reserve currency

Chinese Renminbi Indian Rupee Thai Baht Pound Sterling

Korean Won Japanese Yen Euro Canadian Dollar

Mexican Peso Australain Dollar Brazilian Real Russian Ruble

38

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.Source: Bloomberg, 31.08.15

Global currencies have also depreciated markedly versus the US Dollar

Weaker currencies over time should help boost exports and GDP growth

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

PM

I

Manufacturing activity

UK US Eurozone Japan

Expanding

Contracting

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

PM

I

Non-manufacturing activity


Expanding

Contracting

39

Developed world economies continue to recover

US and UK in sustainable recoveries with Europe and Japan being boosted by QE

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.Source: Bloomberg, 30.06.15. Note: Index value for manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity above 50 corresponds to expansion and below 50 corresponds to contraction.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

250

350

450

550

650

750US initial jobless claims versus the Federal Reserve Funds target rate

US initial jobless claims ('000) [lhs] Fed Funds rate [rhs]

Source: Bloomberg, 30.06.15.

US unemployment and Federal Reserve policy

The tightening cycle has not yet begun, expectation are for Q4 2051or Q1 2016 lift-off

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%Fixed asset investment YoY

42

46

50

54

58 China employment PMI SA

Expanding

Contracting

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%China monthly money supply M2 YoY

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Leading economic activity index

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.Source: Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch, 30.06.15.

China is contending with some major headwinds

This has major implications for global commodity prices and inflation

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%Real GDP growth rates

EM real GDP YoY Expected US real GDP YoY Expected

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.Source: Cornerstone Macro, 30.06.15

US and emerging market real growth converging

15 years of superior emerging market real growth could be coming to an end



● Market – valuations and investment themes


Agenda

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

IA Sterling High Yield [lhs] IA Global [lhs] Developed Market Central Bank balance sheets ($tr) [rhs]

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.Yields quoted are not guaranteed and may change in the future. Source: Bloomberg, 30.06.15. Central Bank Balance Sheets are a combination of the US Federal Reserve, ECB, BoE and BoJ.

Central bank monetary manipulation of markets

Quantitative Easing (QE) has and continues to boost asset prices

Equity market earnings multiples and dividend yields, based on expected 2016 earnings

Country Index P/E ratio Yield (%) Sector Index P/E ratio Yield (%)

US S&P 500 14.8 2.4 US Technology NASDAQ 17.9 1.3

UK FTSE 100 13.3 4.6 US Biotech NASDAQ Biotech 33.5 0.4

France CAC 40 13.2 3.8 Gold Miners Phil. Gold & Silver 25.0 1.2

Germany DAX 11.5 3.5 Oil equities BB World Oil & Gas 12.4 4.2

Japan Topix 12.9 2.2 Consumer Staples MSCI World Cons. Staples 18.1 3.0

Hong Kong Hang Seng 9.7 4.1 EU Banks MSCI Europe Banks 10.3 4.9

Russia Micex 5.3 5.3 World Miners BB World Mining 12.1 4.3

Brazil Ibovespa 9.9 5.0 Global Utilities MSCI World Utilities 14.7 4.3

India CNX Nifty 13.3 1.9 US Small Caps Russell 2000 20.7 1.6

45

Equity market valuations

Equity markets generally look fairly valued given the prevailing yields and inflation

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.Yields quoted are not guaranteed and may change in the future. Source: Bloomberg estimates, 01.09.15.

MSCI World performance before and after the US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates

Date of Hike 1 year leading up 1 year after rise 2 years after rise

July 1971 23.8% 17.9% 15.8%

August 1977 1.0% 5.3% -4.0%

October 1980 10.7% 14.5% 31.2%

March 1984 13.5% 31.9% 60.0%

December 1988 -11.2% 22.2% 24.9%

February 1994 22.2% -8.0% 15.8%

June 1999 20.1% 15.0% -1.3%

June 2004 11.2% 8.9% 22.1%

Average 10.8% 12.9% 19.2%

Historical example for illustrative purposes only.Source: FactSet, Fisher Investments, MSCI, using geometric mean.

World markets’ reaction to US interest rates

Rising interest rates are not a death knell for equities

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

US Dollar remains the transmission mechanism for inflation around the globe

US Trade Weighted Major Currency Dollar 03.73 = 100 on 31.03.14 (lhs) MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index (rhs)


US Dollar strength and emerging market equity performance

Emerging market equities tend to struggle when the US Dollar is strong

− Reinvesting dividends for growth is a proven

long-term strategy

− Companies that are cash generative, high

quality and have sustainable franchises

often have long-term dividend policies

− Reinvesting dividends over time can mean

that the inherent volatility in equities can

work in your favour

− A more robust strategy than trying to catch

the next secular growth company which also

has the potential to fall to zero

Deflation

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

1200%

1400%

1600%

Gro

wth

Performance difference from reinvesting dividends

FTSE All-Share total return FTSE All-Share price return


Compound dividends and equity investment

The reinvestment of income is critical for optimum capital growth

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Yie

ld

Market cap, $bn

Fixed Interest breadth and yields

USDIG Corp

US Treasury

USDHY

Corp

USDEM Corp

USD MBSUKSov EU

IGCorp

Eurozone SovJapan Sov

USDHY Sov

EURHY Corp

GBPIG Corp


Fixed interest universe remains broad and diverse

Many areas offer yields well in excess of inflation and cash

Levers of value add

Duration

Country

FX

Creditrisk

Sector selection

Security selection

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.

Active fixed interest managers have many levers

Ability to retain diversification through flexibility




● Portfolio – changes and positioning

Agenda

Equityexposure

Increased

Portfolio fully invested and maximum weighted in equities

Equities Fixed Interest Other

UK Western Sovereign Property

US Emerging Market Absolute ReturnEquity Long / Short

Europe Corporate Bonds AlternativesAvoiding illiquid assets

Japan High Yield Bonds Cash

Asia

Emerging Markets

Focusing on Value, Quality and Income orientated managers

Bias towards flexible managers

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

Current positioning

Generally fully invested and maximum weighted in equities

Lower

Higher

Emirates Balanced Managed

Portfolio

Emirates Active Managed

Portfolio

Emirates Global Quarterly Income Portfolio

Risk Higher

Re

turn

Equities 56.9%

Absolute Return 19.8%

Fixed Interest 21.1%

Cash 2.2%

ParametersEquities 10-50%Alternatives 0-20%Fixed Income & Cash 0-100%



Equities 47.1%



Cash 3.0%

Equities 82.6%


Fixed Interest 8.1%

Cash 0.7%

Source: Jupiter, 28.09.15.Note: numbers may not add up due to banker’s rounding

Emirates Managed Portfolios

Three strategies each with a different risk / reward profile to suit your clients

-50%

50%

150%

250%

350%

450%

Manager performance*

Findlay Park American FE Equity Small Cap USA

− Managed by a well established team with James at the head

− Take a value driven investment approach, willing to move throughout the US market

− Hold some cash to take advantage of opportunities

Past performance is no guide to the future. The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future. Any holdings examples are used for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice. This fund may not be available for sale in your jurisdiction. Source: FE, Findlay Park, total return in USD, net income reinvested. *Period over which James Findlay has been the lead manager on the fund, from 31.03.00 to 30.06.15.

Findlay Park North American – James Findlay

Value focused US equity fund which takes an absolute return mindset

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


CF Woodford Equity Income A Acc IA UK Equity Income

− Total return approach favouring strong companies with growing dividends

− Neil’s strategy is unconstrained by sector and market cap

− Conscious of preserving capital

Past performance is no guide to the future. The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future. Any holdings examples are used for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice. This fund may not be available for sale in your jurisdiction. Source: FE, Woodford Investment Management, total return in GBP, net income reinvested. *Period over which Neil Woodford has been the lead manager on the fund, from 06.06.14 to 30.06.15. IA = The Investment Association.

CF Woodford Equity Income – Neil Woodford

Experienced, conviction investor wiling to take large sector and stock positions

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%Manager performance*

CF Morant Wright Japan A Acc IA Japan

− Morant Wright take a conservative approach to investment in Japan, looking for cheap companies to populate their portfolio

− The companies they invest in tend to be those that trade on a discount to book value

− Their portfolio tends to be focused around the mid cap section of the market

Past performance is no guide to the future. The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future. Any holdings examples are used for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice. This fund may not be available for sale in your jurisdiction. Source: FE, Morant Wright, total return in GBP, net income reinvested.*Period over which Ian Wright & Stephen Morant have been the lead managers on the fund, from 23.05.03 to 30.06.15. IA = The Investment Association

CF Morant Wright Japan – Ian Wright & Stephen Morant

Valuation focused, mid cap oriented Japanese equity fund

− Angus and his now extensive team invest in companies that are best termed as quality, trading at reasonable prices

− They take high regard of the corporate governance of the companies they invest in, ensuring that management respect the rights of minority shareholders

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%


First State Asia Pacific Leaders A GBP Acc

IA Asia Pacific Excluding Japan

Past performance is no guide to the future. The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future. Any holdings examples are used for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice. This fund may not be available for sale in your jurisdiction. Source: FE, First State, total return in GBP, net income reinvested. *Period over which Angus Tulloch has been the lead manager on the fund, from 01.12.03 to 30.06.15. IA = The Investment Association.

First State Asia Pacific Leaders – Angus Tulloch

Quality focused portfolios of Asian growth companies

− Ariel takes a combined macro view with individual issuer and bond selection

− Bonds are selected in companies which have improving fundamentals that offer attractive yields

− Limiting downside is critical to the strategy and a number of hedges are usually employed to mitigate downside risk

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%


Jupiter Strategic Bond Acc IA Sterling Strategic Bond

58

Past performance is no guide to the future. The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future. Any holdings examples are used for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice. This fund may not be available for sale in your jurisdiction. Source: FE, Jupiter, total return in GBP, net income reinvested. *Period over which Ariel Bezalel has been the lead manager on the fund, from 02.06.08 to 30.06.15. IA = The Investment Association. Jupiter Strategic Bond Fund performance is shown here for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate fund manager’s long-term track record

Jupiter Dynamic Bond – Ariel Bezalel

Flexible fixed interest strategy, run by a pragmatic manager

− Take a collegiate approach running this flexible fixed interest strategy

− Invest throughout the fixed interest asset class and along a range of thematic ideas

− Intend to limit capacity to sub $2bn to retain their flexibility

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%Manager performance*

PFS – TwentyFour Dynamic Bond A Gr Acc GBP

IA Sterling Strategic Bond

Past performance is no guide to the future. The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future. Any holdings examples are used for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice. This fund may not be available for sale in your jurisdiction. Source: FE, TwentyFour, total return in GBP, net income reinvested. *Period over which Eoin Walsh & Gary Kirk have been the lead managers on the fund, from 26.04.10 to 30.06.15. IA = The Investment Association.

PFS – TwentyFour Dynamic Bond – Eoin Walsh & Gary Kirk

A best ideas fixed interest portfolio

US Equities 35.4%

Findlay Park American

Old Mutual North American Equity

European Equities 17.4%

Odey European

UK Equities 10.3%

CF Woodford Equity Income

Royal London UK Equity Income

Japanese Equities 13.5%

CF Morant Wright Japan

Asian and Emerging Market Equities 6.0%

First State Asia Pacific Leaders

Findlay Park Latin American


Henderson European Absolute Return

Fixed Interest 8.1%

Jupiter Dynamic Bond

Cash 0.7%

US Equities 35.4% EU Equities 17.4%

UK Equities 10.3% Japanese Equities 13.5%

Asian and EM Equities 6.0% Absolute Return 8.5%

Fixed Interest 8.1% Cash 0.7%

Any holdings examples are used for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment advice. These funds may not be available for sale in your jurisdiction. Source: Jupiter, 28.09.15. Note: numbers may not add up due to banker’s rounding.

Emirates Active Managed Portfolio

Targets long-term capital growth

Equity biased, growth portfolio






Emirates Balanced Managed Portfolio

Targets capital growth by blending asset classes

A flexible and diversified, growth portfolio

US Equities 24.8%


Old Mutual North American


Odey European

UK Equities 6.8%









Old Mutual Global Absolute Return



PFS Twentyfour Dynamic Bond

Cash 2.2%






Emirates Global Quarterly Income Portfolio

Targets a high distribution with the potential for growth

Provides a 6% yield, taking a total return approach

US Equities 22.0%


Old Mutual North American


Odey European

UK Equities 6.3%









Old Mutual Global Absolute Return



PFS Twentyfour Dynamic Bond

Cash 3.0%

Source: ENBDAM, Bloomberg as at 12 months from 9/30/2015 to 9/30/2015, YTD from 12/31/2014 to 9/30/2015. Morningstar, YTD NAV 12/31/2014 TO 9/18/2015

Emirates global multi-asset fund performance

12 Months VolatilityMorningstar

Quartile Ranking

Emirates Active Managed Fund (LUX) -2.29% 10.78% 1

Emirates Balanced Managed Fund (LUX) -2.14% 7.63% 1

Emirates Global Quarterly Income Fund (LUX) -1.92% 6.30% 2

MSCI World Index -6.86% 12.84% n/a

90

95

100

105

110

Emirates Global Quarterly Income Fund Emirates Active Managed Fund

Emirates Balanced Managed Fund MSCI World Index

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in future.

Summary

• Global growth continues to improve steadily, particularly in the developed world

• Currency depreciation, a lower oil price and accommodative central bank policy should all help

boost growth in the months ahead

• Interest rates in the US and UK look set to rise over the next year, with QE set to continue in

the EU and Japan

• Chinese economic growth looks likely to slow dramatically, helping keep inflation in check

• Areas of the bond market remain attractive to income seekers

• Equities look reasonably valued and are underpinned by the bond markets

• Well managed equities remain our asset class of choice for the patient long-term investor

This presentation is intended for Emirates NBD’s internal use only and not for the benefit of retail investors. Market and exchange rate movements can causethe value of an investment to fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than originally invested. Any data or views given should not be construed asinvestment advice. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information but no assurance or warranties are given.

Past performance is no guide to the future. Company examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell. Quoted yields arenot guaranteed and may change in the future. Awards and Ratings should not be taken as a recommendation.

This document contains information based on the FTSE 100 Index. The FTSE 100 Index is calculated by FTSE. FTSE does not sponsor, endorse or promotethe product referred to in this document and is not in any way connected to it and does not accept any liability in relation to its issue, operation and trading. Allcopyright and database rights in the index values and constituent list vest in FTSE. Issued by The Jupiter Global Fund and, in some instances, Jupiter AssetManagement Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority for UK investment business.

This document contains information based on the MSCI World, MSCI World Consumer Staples, MSCI World Utilities and MSCI Europe Banks Indices. NeitherMSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representationswith respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy,completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI,any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive,consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of theMSCI data is permitted without MSCI’s express written consent.

For your security we may record or randomly monitor all telephone calls.

Jupiter Asset Management Limited (JAM) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and its registered address is 1 Grosvenor Place,London SW1X 7JJ.

No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any manner without the prior permission of JAM.

Disclosure

10387_55539_MERLIN_EMIRATES_DL_1015

Opportunities in European equities

Neil Carter, Director, Global Financial InstitutionsJupiter Asset Management

Equity market earnings multiples and dividend yields, based on expected 2016 earnings

Country Index P/E ratio Yield (%) Sector Index P/E ratio Yield (%)

US S&P 500 14.8 2.4 US Technology NASDAQ 17.9 1.3

UK FTSE 100 13.3 4.6 US Biotech NASDAQ Biotech 33.5 0.4

France CAC 40 13.2 3.8 Gold Miners Phil. Gold & Silver 25.0 1.2

Germany DAX 11.5 3.5 Oil equities BB World Oil & Gas 12.4 4.2

Japan Topix 12.9 2.2 Consumer Staples MSCI World Cons. Staples 18.1 3.0

Hong Kong Hang Seng 9.7 4.1 EU Banks MSCI Europe Banks 10.3 4.9

Russia Micex 5.3 5.3 World Miners BB World Mining 12.1 4.3

Brazil Ibovespa 9.9 5.0 Global Utilities MSCI World Utilities 14.7 4.3

India CNX Nifty 13.3 1.9 US Small Caps Russell 2000 20.7 1.6

67

Equity market valuations

Equity markets generally look fairly valued given the prevailing yields and inflation

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.Yields quoted are not guaranteed and may change in the future. Source: Bloomberg estimates, 01.09.15.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

PM

I

Manufacturing activity


Expanding

Contracting

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

PM

I

Non-manufacturing activity


Expanding

Contracting

68

Developed world economies continue to recover

US and UK in sustainable recoveries with Europe and Japan being boosted by QE

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.Source: Bloomberg, 30.06.15. Note: Index value for manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity above 50 corresponds to expansion and below 50 corresponds to contraction.

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Eurozone consumer credit growth**

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Markit headline manufacturing PMI*

Eurozone Germany China (HSBC)

France US

The economic recovery is still fragile

But credit growth may be returning

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.* Source: Bloomberg, Markit, HSBC, 26.05.15. ‘Markit’ and ‘PMI’ are marks of Markit Economics Limited or its affiliate and have been licensed for use by Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates. ** Source: Bloomberg, ECB, 26.05.15.

70

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%Loan growth YoY

Consumer Credit Mortgages Loans to Corporates

Source: Bloomberg, ECB, 31.05.15.

Eurozone growth is showing signs of progress

The trend in the demand for debt has been improving for the last 2 years

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

Performance of global currencies versus the world reserve currency

Chinese Renminbi Indian Rupee Thai Baht Pound Sterling

Korean Won Japanese Yen Euro Canadian Dollar

Mexican Peso Australain Dollar Brazilian Real Russian Ruble

71

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.Source: Bloomberg, 31.08.15

Global currencies have also depreciated markedly versus the US Dollar

Weaker currencies over time should help boost exports and GDP growth

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$1.45

$1.50

USD per EUR*

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Reduction in Eurozone structural budget deficit**

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

Crude oil Brent ($/bbl)*

Three potential positives for economic growth in 2015

Former headwinds have become tailwinds

The views expressed are those of the presenter at the time of preparation and may change in the future.*Source: Bloomberg, 26.08.15. **Source: UBS, 2015.

Seeking alpha in European markets

• Opportunities for active managers on a stock picking basis

• Improving economic indicators and supportive ECB policy

• Political will to keep the EU together

Conclusion

This presentation is intended for Emirates NBD’s internal use only and not for the benefit of retail investors. Market and exchange rate movements

can cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than originally invested. Any data or views given should not be

construed as investment advice. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information but no assurance or warranties are given.

Past performance is no guide to the future. Company examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell. Quoted

yields are not guaranteed and may change in the future. Awards and Ratings should not be taken as a recommendation.

This document contains information based on the FTSE 100 Index. The FTSE 100 Index is calculated by FTSE. FTSE does not sponsor, endorse or

promote the product referred to in this document and is not in any way connected to it and does not accept any liability in relation to its issue, operation

and trading. All copyright and database rights in the index values and constituent list vest in FTSE. Issued by The Jupiter Global Fund and, in some

instances, Jupiter Asset Management Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority for UK investment business.

This document contains information based on the MSCI World Consumer Staples, MSCI World Utilities and MSCI Europe Banks Indices. Neither MSCI

nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or

representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all

warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting

any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data

have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of

such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI’s express written consent.

For your security we may record or randomly monitor all telephone calls.

Jupiter Asset Management Limited (JAM) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and its registered address is 1 Grosvenor

Place, London SW1X 7JJ.

No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any manner without the prior permission of JAM.

10378_55512_EURO_EQUITIES_NC_EMIRATES_1015

Disclosure

Emirates NBD Asset Management in partnership with Jupiter …€¦ · China the new “buzz” word...

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Transcript of Emirates NBD Asset Management in partnership with Jupiter …€¦ · China the new “buzz” word...