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THE ELWAY POLL 24 OCT 12

24 OCTOBER 2012

THE ELWAY POLL is intended for the exclusive use of its subscribers. The material contained herein may not be copied or disseminated without the written consent of Elway

Research, Inc.

McKenna Takes Lead Am on g Lik e ly Voter s

DESCRIBE THE CHOICE OF CANDIDATESINSLEE

VOTERS

McKENNA

VOTERS UNDEC

BOTH STRONG 24% 22% 21%

NEITHER STRONG 13% 6% 22%

ONE CLEARLY

BETTER58% 66% 18%

NO OPINION 4% 7% 38%

MAIN REASON CANDIDATES SELECTED

McKENNA INSLEE

Philosophy* 24% Democrat 30%

Experience /Knowledge17% Specific Issues* 18%

Republican 18% Dislike McKenna 16%

Dislike Inslee 11% Philosophy 7%

Integrity 4% Record/Experience 5%

*conservative/ fiscal policy/smaller govt /issues

* womens issues /heath care/environment / social issues

Withtwoweekstogountilelectiondayandballotsalreadyinvotershands,RepublicanRobMcKennahasretakentheleadoverDemocratJayInsleeintheraceforGovernorbya4745%marginamonglikelyvoters.McKennaledearlierintheyear,Insleehasledsincemidsummer,andMcKennahasbeenregaininggroundoverthelasttwomonths.With8%stillundecidedandamarginoferrorof5%,thereisstillplentyoflifeleftinwhatisconsideredtobethehottestgovernorsraceinthecountry,

TheElwayPollswitcheditssampleforthisfinalpollfromallregisteredvoterstolikelyvoters,definedhereasvoterswhocastballotsinatleast1oftheprevious4elections.

Theraceishighlypartisan.Inanopenendedquestion,4in10 of eachcandidates supporters cited either politicalpartyorphilosophyasthemainreasonfortheirsupport.

AmongMcKennasupporters,24%citedhisphilosophy

(e.g.,conservative,fiscalpolicy,smallergovernment,orgeneralstandsonissues),and18%citedpoliticalparty.

AmongInsleesupportersthedecisionwasmorepurelypartisan:30%saidtheysupportedhimbecauseheisaDemocratand7%citedreasonsrelatedtohisphilosophy.

Insleesupportersweremorelikelytonamespecificissues,suchastheenvironment,healthcare,educationandwomensissues(18%namedoneofthoseissues);

McKennasupportersweremorelikelytocitetheircandidatesexperienceandknowledge(17%),thanwereInsleesupporters(5%)

Dislikeoftheotherguywasasignificantfactorforbothcandidates:16%ofInsleevoterssaidthemainreasontovoteforhimwasdislikeofMcKenna;and11%ofMcKennavoterssaidthemainreasontovoteforhimwasdislikeofInslee.

McKennasupportersseemsomewhatmorecomfortablewith their candidate than were Inslee supporters. Whenaskedtocharacterizethechoicebeforethem:

66%ofMcKennavoterssaidtheircandidatewasclearlybetterthanInslee,whilefewer(58%)ofInsleesup

porterssaidhewasclearlythebettercandidate.13%ofInsleevoterssaidthatneithercandidateisstrong;

only6%ofMcKennavotersmadethatassessment.

Amongundecidedvoters,whowilldecidethiselection:21%saidbothcandidatesarestrong;22%saidneitherisastrongcandidate;18%saidoneisclearlybetterbutdidnotsaywhichone

andwerestillundecidedanyway;38%hadnoopinionaboutthechoiceofcandidates.

Itseasytoseewhytheyareundecided.

VOTE FOR GOVERNOR: FEBOCTOBER

This survey interviewed Likely Voters. Previous surveys sampledall registered voters.

45

42

36

41

47

36

40

43 44

45

FEB JUNE JULY SEPT OCT

McKEN NA INSLEE

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Aud i t o r

L t . Gover nor

Secre t a ry o f St a te

Brad Ow en (D) leads among:Democrats (81-3%)Independents (35-25%)King County (47-24%)Eastern WA (45-35%)

Bill Fink beiner ( R) leads among:

Republicans (71-8%)North Puget Sound (41-30%)

At t o rn ey Genera l Bob Ferguson ( D) leads among:Democrats (78-8%)King County (52-29%)

Reagan Dunn ( R) leads among:

Republicans (74-5%)Eastern WA (44-29%)Puget Sound (non-King) (39-29%)

Even am ongIndependents (30% RD; 29% BF)

Kath leen Drew (D) leads among:

Democrats (71-4%)Women (36-30%)King County (42-20%)

Kim Wyman (R) leads among:

Republicans (75-5%)Independents (26-23%)Men (39-32%)Outside King Co (41-30%)

Troy Kelly ( D) leads among:Democrats (72-1%)King County (42-16%)Far West (40-32%)

James Watk ins (R) leads among:

Republicans (65-4%)Eastern WA (37-26%)North Puget Sound (40-26%)

R e p u b l ica n s G a in a s W o m e n S h ift Aw a y fr o m D e m o cr a t sAfterDemocratsopenedupgroundlastmonthinall4ofthehotlycontestedracesforstateoffices,Republicansgaineditbackthismonth,andthensome.Thestoryofthechangeistheshiftofwomenvoters:Lastmonth52%ofwomenidentifiedasDemocratsand20%asRepublicans.Thismonth,only39%saidDemocratand31%saidRepublican.Thesampleframewasdifferent(likelyvotersthistime,allvoterslasttime),butthisisaremarkableshift,outdoingasimilarshiftseeninnationalsurveys.

Thelargenumberofundecidedvotersmeansthatunlesstheybreaksignificantlyinthesamedirection,itcouldalongelectionnight(andbeyond)beforewinnersareknowninseveralstateraces.

2 8

2 7

3 6

46

3 3

2 5

2 6

4 0

3 8

J U N E

S E P T

O C T

DU N N U N DEC F ERG U SO N

3 2

3 4

2 8

3 2

4 0

3 4

SEPT

O CT

W YMA N UNDE C DREW

2 7

2 9

3 8

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S E P T

O C T

W A T K IN S U ND E C K E L L Y

2 7

3 2

29

26

4 3

4 2

SEPT

OC T

FINK B EINER UNDEC O WEN

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THE ELWAY POLL 24 OCT 12

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I - 50 2 : Ma r i j uana Lega l izat i on

I -12 40 : Cha r t e r Schoo ls

R-74 : Sam e-Sex Mar r iage

49

49

12

12

6

39

37

45

51

JULY

SEPT

OCT

APROVE UNDEC REJECT

26

28

17

16

17

25

24

3548

JULY

SEPT

O CT

DEF FA V PROB UNDEC PRO B DEF OPP

30

26

31

33

48

3

7

10

12

8

33

30

32

29

44

JUL Y ' 11

JAN ' 12

JUL Y

S E P T

OC T

D E F F A V P R O B F A V U N D E C P R O B O P P D E F O P P

I - 1 1 8 5 : Ta x Li m i t a t i o n

OppositiontoReferendum74hasgrownoverthepastmonthwhilesupporthasstayedatvirtuallythesamelevelsinceJuly.

Earlierconfusionovertheballottitleappearstohave abated. Still, 4%of voters appear tobevoting the opposite of their intention2% oneachside,so itbalancesout. In July,asmanyas15% ofrespondentsmay have been voting contrarytotheirintention.SupportforR74goesdownwithagefrom60%amongvotersunder35to40%amongvot

ersover65.

Supportandopposition to thismeasurehasbeenstable formore thanayear.After dipping lastmonth, opposition to I502, whichwould legalize marijuana, returned to thelevelithadbeeninJanuary.Aswithsamesexmarriage,supportformarijuanalegalizationgoesdownwithagefrom55%amongvotersunder35to37%amongvotersover65.

4548

54 43

4446

50

48 44

38

AlthoughI1185supportappearstohaveerodedsincemidsummerandhasdroppedbelow50%,thetaxlimitationmeasurescontinuestoleadby19points,andoppositionhasneverbeenabove33%.ItissupportedbyamajorityofRepublicans(69%),andapluralityofIndependents(4134%),while

Democratsaredivided(38%yes/40%no).37

37

14

17

21

10

11

20

22

3049

JULY

SEPT

OCT

DEF FA V PROB PROB DEF OPP

51 33

3056

49 30

Support and opposition levels for CharterSchoolsisalmostidenticaltolastJuly.I1240hasnevertopped50%,buthasmaintaineda911pointleadthroughoutthecampaign.Supportgoesupwithincome,from45%ofthosemakingunder$100,000ayearto60%ofthosemakingoverthatamount.

ItwassupportedbymostRepublicans(61%)andIndependents(52%);opposedbyabaremajorityofDemocrats(50%).

3746

38

48

47

35

Supportandoppositionlevelshavebeenremarkablystableforall4ofthehighprofilemeasuresonthisyearsballot.All4areleadingandhavebeenhoveringataround50%supportsinceJuly.Atleastacoupleofthecampaignsarespendingheavilynow,andthevisiblecampaignsappeartobelopsided.Thequestionwillbehowmuchamediablitzattheendofthecampaigncanmovenumbersthathavebeenstableayear.

Asalwaysinthecaseofballotmeasures,wereadtheofficialballottitleandsummarytosurveyrespon

dentsandaskedhowtheywouldvoteifyouwerefillingoutyourballottoday.Priortothismonth,wehadaskedasofterquestion:howareyouinclinedtovoteasthingsstandtoday?

All 4 Ba l lo t M e a su r e s Con t in u e t o T e e te r on t he Br i nk

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Sample Profile

The Elway Poll is an independent, non-partisan analysis of publicopinion in Washington and the Northwest available exclusivelyto subscribers.SUBSCRIPTION: An annual subscription is $250.

PROPRIETARY QUESTIONS: Each month, spaceis reserved in the questionnaire to allow subscribers to insertproprietary questions. The fee for proprietary questions is $600

per question. You will receive the results of your question(s) withfull crosstabulations within three days.CROSSTABS: A full set of cross-tabulation tables for anysurvey is available for $100.

The Elway Poll

T h e E l w a y P o l l7035 Palatine N.

S e a t t l e , W A 9 8 1 0 3

2 0 6 / 2 6 4 - 1 5 0 0 F A X : 2 6 4 - 0 3 0 1

epoll@elwayresearch.com

451 Likely Voters, selected at random from registered voter lists in Washington state,

were interviewed Oct, 18-21, 2012 by live, professional interviewers. Likely Voters are

defined here as having voted in at least 1 of the last 4 elections. 9% of the interviews

were conducted on cell phones. The margin of sampling error is 4.5% at the 95% level

of confidence. This means, in theory, that had this same survey been conducted 100

times, the results would be within 4.5% of the results reported here at least 95 times.

REGIONKing County..............................................................30%Pierce + Kitsap.........................................................16%North Sound (Snohomish to Whatcom)..............................18%Western Washington (Clallam to Clark) ..........................17%Eastern Washington.................................................20%

GENDERMale..........................................................................48%Female .....................................................................52%

AGE18-35 ........................................................................12%36-50 ........................................................................22%51-64 ........................................................................42%65+ ...........................................................................25%

PARTY IDENTIFICATIONDemocrat..................................................................36%Republican ..............................................................32%Independent .............................................................32%

EDUCATION LEVELHigh School or less ..................................................16%Some College...........................................................30%College (4yr) Degree................................................33%Post Graduate School ..............................................20%

HOUSEHOLD INCOME