Eleições eletrônicas no Brasil ingles

2014 Electronic Election in Brazil Bueno & Hoeschl´s Report

Executive Summary

Hugo Cesar Hoeschl, Post Doci

[email protected] Tania Cristina D’Agostini Bueno, Drii

[email protected]

Abstract: This text contains a preliminary vision of a "work in progress" about the possibility of applying Newcomb Benford's Law in election processes, especially in the last presidential election in Brazil, as well as the analysis about the existence of assumptions justifying such application.

Introduction An intense discussion is in progress about the efficiency of the electronic election process in Brazil, which was the first country in the world to conduct electronic elections widely in order to choose representatives and parliamentarians. Along with this innovative process it has also emerged questioning about the validity, efficiency and compliance of the electronic electoral process. In the 2014 elections there was a very intense increase in the level of criticism and questions. As a result we have made some multidisciplinary studies about the Newcomb Benford Law -‐ NBLiii, and the possibility of its application in election processes considering past experience in creating digital electionsiv and decision-‐making toolsv . The NBL is called the "First Digit Law" and shows by observation that there is a natural probability of frequency numbers in historical series, particularly in the first digit. According to its central consequence, the numbers appear with the following proportionvi:

2. Applicability of Newcomb Benford's Law in election processes The application of Newcomb Benford's Law in numerical auditing process is a pacified subject in terms of technical and scientific approach. This does not mean that it is infallible, or that its application arises immediately the conclusion of existence of fraudulent numerical contents. The fact is that the NBL is a simple and very powerful instrument of integrity verification and compliance of numerical sets. For that reason, it turns out to be an effective weapon in the hands of minorities, or isolated people, against hegemonic groups or large bureaucratic structures.

See for example the NBL frequential profile in an average of numbers that contains constants of physics, tables of expansion of gases and sports statisticalvii:

During electoral processes, there are two significant references on its acceptability: the study of Mizrahiviii, and the work of Oliveira Júniorix. There are many others studies as Prof. Walter Mebane´sx (Michigan University), including works contesting its applicability. But the two first make specific reference to the Brazilian case, and the first made in 2010, an application of NBL in which its ideal line is very close to the actual data collected during the election:

3. Justification elements of NBL applicability in 2014 elections Five elements point to a possible questionableness of the Brazilian electoral process in 2014: 1) The presence of Diebold Company. It was very questioned in other procedures, and it was heavily fined and

accused of corruption in the US; 2) The presence of Smartmatic company, also subject of many questionings in international technical environments; 3) The oscillating previous election polls which one day before the election, pointed any result as possible, and the consequent tight end margin of votes counted; 4) Constant and reiterated questioning reported in social networks after the elections; 5) The dogmatic attitude of some sectors of the official calculation system, incisively refracting any possibility of questioning. These five elements together with several criticisms about the electronic electoral process made in previous elections, with reports, videos, testimonials, plus with data on technical disputes involving manufacturers and former manufacturers of software and urns, as well as the incident recorded in Ecuador, we reach to the following conclusion: it needs to be deeply studied. The last element of applicability is in the temporalized distribution of partial results (PR’s) issued during the election. Almost 50% of PR’s was issued for a total of approximately 5% of the final vote, as the figure below:

4. NBL preliminary application in the Brazilian presidential election in 2014 Faced with such elements, it has settled for making a first sampling to a preliminary analysis. This first sample (A1) was made by

a random selection of cells coming from the PR’s. The graphics performance resulted in the red line in the graph below:

Very far from the "ideal curve" of NBL (blue line). Considering that a random sample may have a fragile consistency, it was decided to apply the NBL in 100% of PR’s (A2). The result was as follows:

The blue line is the NBL ideal line. The red line represents the data of PR’s (partial results). This process works like a staircase, and the elements suggest going to a new step. Attention then turned to the analysis of results by states (A3). Several graphs show conflicting drawings with natural proportionality of NBL (here presented without geographical indication):

Many of the states have disproportional impact on the end-‐digit (“8” and “9”). In terms of financial fraud and money laundering investigations, this characteristic means a consistent warning risk of fraud. On the other hand the high incidence of graphics with disproportional sinuosity exactly in the final part of the counting votes (5% final of PR’s), reinforce this feature. Conclusions I) There is no plausible reason to refute, ab initio, the application of the NBL in the Brazilian electoral process of 2014. The Earth is not the center of the universe, as Copernicus taught, and the Brazilian electoral system is not infallible or unquestionable. None electoral system is above failures or questionings; II) There are historical and factual elements that allow the reasoning of seeking

compliance analysis, and the NBL is a feasible instrument for the task because its application is possible without the need to access or process large volumes of data. III) The application of the NBL in Brazilian electoral process in preliminary analysis shows high levels of inconsistency (A1, A2 and A3). The differences in the curves exceed the frequential limits in quantity and variety suggesting deeper applications and audits on a broader scale. On the technical side under the point of view of historical series analysis, the election result is on the perspective of doubt. Motivation and future works Upon arriving in Krakow to attend the Jurix 2014 -‐ 27th International Conference on the Legal Knowledge and Information Systems, and especially after the most intense contact with the legacy of Copernicus (graduated in Krakow and whose statue stands at the entrance of the Jagiellonian University), and after the visit to the Auschwitz camp, we decided to informally present the preliminary results of this study to the scientific community in an executive summary form, as a previous study of a "work in progress" as a "collocated work" of our work regularly evaluated and approved for presentation, which may prove to be the subject of further studies in the future. The decision was due to the symbolism contained in the paradox of these two main streams: a) on one side, Copernicus and his followers doing observations and conclusions, with purely technical and scientific objectives, based on rationality, and generated questionings to the established staff; b) on the other side, the symbolism of the legacy of Auschwitz that draws attention to the constant vigil over the hegemonies which sometimes end up losing the rationality limits in historical perspective. As future works would be interesting to develop the following tasks: a) Applying the NBL in all electoral zones and other greatness of universes within the Brazilian election; b) Analyse the feasibility of applying the NBL in the second digit in all electoral sections;

c) Match with the results of the 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections; d) Compare the results from other countries; e) To deepen data and detail worksheets. References: i Former President of the Association of Data Processing Companies -‐ ABEP. Former President of the Center for Informatics and Automation of Santa Catarina. Procurator of the National Treasury. Former Promoter of Justice. Master in Philosophy and TGD. Specialist in Legal Informatics. Doctor in Applied Intelligence. Post-‐Doctorate in Electronic Government. Creator of a national methodology to combat money laundering of LAB-‐LD/CNPq. http://www.informatik.uni-‐trier.de/~ley/pers/hd/h/Hoeschl:Hugo_Cesar.html ii Master and Doctor in Applied Intelligence. Specialist in Legal Informatics. International researcher in artificial intelligence and law, with more than 100 papers published in the area. http://www.informatik.uni-‐trier.de/~ley/pers/hd/b/Bueno:T=acirc=nia_C=_D=Agostini iii Researchers that also participated in the analysis team: Karina Girardi Roggia (Dr), Angela Iara Zotti (Msc), Cláudia de Oliveira Bueno (Esp) Jerônimo Velasquez (Webmaster). iv Brasileiros realizam primeira eleição digital. http://tecnologia.terra.com.br/brasileiros-‐realizam-‐1-‐eleicao-‐por-‐celulares-‐com-‐urna-‐digital,d359887dc5aea310VgnCLD200000bbcceb0aRCRD.html v Sistema permite consultas pelo telefone celular. http://www.wirelessmundi.inf.br/noticias-‐geral/456-‐aplicacao-‐permite-‐consultas-‐publicas-‐e-‐votacoes-‐pelo-‐celular vien.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law vii http://plus.maths.org/content/looking-‐out-‐number-‐one?src=aop viii As ultimas eleições e a lei de Benford (ou Lei do Primeiro Digito). Salomon Mizrahi (Ufscar). http://www.academia.edu/3596147/As_%C3%BAltimas_elei%C3%A7%C3%B5es_e_a_lei_de_Benford_ou_Lei_do_Primeiro_D%C3%ADgito_ ix Evidências empíricas acerca da aplicação da Lei de Newcomb-Benford no campo da auditoria no sistema eleitoral brasileiro. Francisco Alves de Oliveira Jr. http://franciscoalvesjunior.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/monografia.pdf x http://www-‐personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/

Eleições eletrônicas no Brasil ingles

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