Electric Car Market

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Electric Car Market Martino Lamacchia

Transcript of Electric Car Market

Page 1: Electric Car Market

Electric Car MarketMartino Lamacchia

Page 2: Electric Car Market

Why Electric?Electric Car Market

Current PictureForecasts

OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it

Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective

Electric car: an enabler for renewables

Agenda

Page 3: Electric Car Market

Why Electric?Electric Car Market

Current PictureForecasts

OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it

Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective

Electric car: an enabler for renewables

Agenda

Page 4: Electric Car Market

Why Electric?

OEM driven: regulationsMarket driven:– Efficiency– Green

Reasons to invest in electric vehicles

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Why Electric?

OEM driven: regulationsMarket driven:– Efficiency– Green

Reasons to invest in electric vehicles

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Why Electric?

Source: McKinsey

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ElectricThey add a zero into emissions calculation, means bringing average emissions down and avoiding fines.

Why Electric?

In regulation compliance perspective we can classify vehicles

«BAD» Top performing cars – high emissions

«GOOD» Small cars – small engines – low emissions

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Why Electric?

Source: McKinsey

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Why Electric?

OEM driven: regulationsMarket driven:– Efficiency– Green

Reasons to invest in electric vehicles

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“How much more would you be willing to

pay for an electric vehicle compared to a similar vehicle with a

gasoline engine?”

Source: International Council for Clean Transportation

People are not ready to spend a fee for an electric

vehicle

Why Electric?

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The need of greener ways of transport is not growing

Source: National Geographic

Why Electric?

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Private owners main motivation for buying PHEV (California)

Source: Center for Sustainable Energy, 2015

Why Electric?

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Internal Combusition Engine vehicles’ efficiency has grown significantly and fuel prices have gone down

From 9,8 l/100kmto 11,7 l/100km

Source: EPA

Why Electric?

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Today Electric Vehicles are being developed mainly to improve compliance to regulations!

Why Electric?

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Why Electric?Electric Car Market

Current PictureForecasts

OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it

Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective

Electric car: an enabler for renewables

Agenda

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Source: McKinsey

Primary

Secondary

EV

Categories

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2011 2012 2013 2014 201510,000.00

100,000.00

1,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

100,000,000.00

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%58,000,000.00 61,000,000.00 63,000,000.00 65,000,000.00 66,000,000.00

50,000.00

125,760.00

212,986.00315,519.00

540,228.00

Passenger Cars sales Ev sales %

EV Market

Source: DOE

EV Global Sales and Share

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Total EV sales (2015): 540.228Total car sales (2015): 66 milEV share: 0,8%

EV Market

Source: EV Volumes.com

Global EV sales by model

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Country EV Sales 2015China 165153

Japan 93142

Usa 92010

Germany 75561

Others 73526

France 18671

South korea 8204

Sweden 6950

Italy 6204

Totale complessivo 539421

EV Type Sales 2015

BEV 277463

PHEV 171573

EV 73526

REEV 16859

Totale complessivo 539421

EV Market

Global EV sales by country

Global EV sales by category

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Global EV sales of light-duty plug-in electric vehicles (2011-2015)

EV Market

Source: USA Department of Energy

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EV Market: forecasts

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Marklines

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EV Market: forecasts

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Marklines

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The incertain future of EV (2020)

EV Market: forecasts

Source: icct

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Why Electric?Electric Car Market

Current PictureForecasts

OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it

Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective

Electric car: an enabler for renewables

Agenda

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Typical questions about petrol-engine cars

How fast does it go?

What’s the average consumption?

How big is it?Doest it have a beautiful design?

How’s the gearbox?

Range anxiety

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Range Anxyety

Typical questions about petrol-engine cars

What is its range?

! !

Range anxiety

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Is range a real problem?

Range anxiety

<30 km <50 km <100 km <150 km <200 km <250 km0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Average daily mileage of M1 and N1 vehicles in Europe

Source: RSE

98% of daily paths in Europe is lower than the average autonomy of the electric vehicles marketed in 2016 (27-30 kWh batteries)

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Ranges available vs price

Car Range [km] Price [€]Citroen C0 150 30,000

Bmw i3 190 (300 with range extender) 36,500

Mercedes B ED 230 41,000

Renault Zoe 240 22,000

Nissan Leaf 250 25,000

Tesla S 90 550 105,000

Range anxiety

Today, good range is available but means high price (Tesla)!

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Why Electric?Electric Car Market

Current PictureForecasts

OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it

Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective

Electric car: an enabler for renewables

Agenda

Page 30: Electric Car Market

Batteries’ Potential

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mass market EV’s

Premium EV’s

24 kWh

~ 400 km~ 250 km~ 180 km

~ 450 km

~ 140 km

>80 kWh

>70 kWh>40 kWh>30 kWh

Evolution in batteries technology

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Car Battery [kWh] Estimated Battery cost Car price %

Citroen C0 16 3200 30000 11%

Bmw i3 18 3600 36500 10%

Mercedes B ED 28 5600 41000 14%

Renault Zoe 22 4400 22000 20%

Nissan Leaf 24 4800 25000 19%

Tesla S 90 90 18000 105000 17%

Medium battery price: 200€/kWh

Batteries’ Potential

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Batteries’ Potential

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Marklines

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Why Electric?Electric Car Market

Current PictureForecasts

OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it

Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective

Electric car: an enabler for renewables

Agenda

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Fast charging implies high power

Source: Terna

Fast charging

Tesla fast charging stations > 100 kW

Renewables will transform

electricity fares from energy driven

to power driven

High power is and will be expensive

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Renewables make TSO life challengingStandard deviation of the load will increase.How to dimension the electric transportation system?

Accumulation

Slow and intermediate charging

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Electric vehicles will be distributed with accumulatorsElectric vehicles are a source of loading balancing for

TSO (Transmission System Operator)

Electric vehicles are an enabling factor for renewable energies through smart grids

Slow and intermediate charging

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Source: McKinsey

Slow and intermediate charging

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Need of private financing

Win for TSO

RENEWABLES

Energy standard deviation increase

Need to adsorb peaks

EV slow charge: accumulating opportunity

Energy variable cost

Fares driven by power

Expensive fast charging

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• At today conditions (high range costs) regulations are the reason to invest on electric vehicles

• EV market in 2020 will be 7x today market• China is (and will be) main EV market• EV will boom when range will be more

affordable• TSO see EV as an opportunity

Conclusions

Conclusions