Electric Car Market
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Transcript of Electric Car Market
Electric Car MarketMartino Lamacchia
Why Electric?Electric Car Market
Current PictureForecasts
OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it
Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective
Electric car: an enabler for renewables
Agenda
Why Electric?Electric Car Market
Current PictureForecasts
OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it
Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective
Electric car: an enabler for renewables
Agenda
Why Electric?
OEM driven: regulationsMarket driven:– Efficiency– Green
Reasons to invest in electric vehicles
Why Electric?
OEM driven: regulationsMarket driven:– Efficiency– Green
Reasons to invest in electric vehicles
Why Electric?
Source: McKinsey
ElectricThey add a zero into emissions calculation, means bringing average emissions down and avoiding fines.
Why Electric?
In regulation compliance perspective we can classify vehicles
«BAD» Top performing cars – high emissions
«GOOD» Small cars – small engines – low emissions
Why Electric?
Source: McKinsey
Why Electric?
OEM driven: regulationsMarket driven:– Efficiency– Green
Reasons to invest in electric vehicles
“How much more would you be willing to
pay for an electric vehicle compared to a similar vehicle with a
gasoline engine?”
Source: International Council for Clean Transportation
People are not ready to spend a fee for an electric
vehicle
Why Electric?
The need of greener ways of transport is not growing
Source: National Geographic
Why Electric?
Private owners main motivation for buying PHEV (California)
Source: Center for Sustainable Energy, 2015
Why Electric?
Internal Combusition Engine vehicles’ efficiency has grown significantly and fuel prices have gone down
From 9,8 l/100kmto 11,7 l/100km
Source: EPA
Why Electric?
Today Electric Vehicles are being developed mainly to improve compliance to regulations!
Why Electric?
Why Electric?Electric Car Market
Current PictureForecasts
OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it
Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective
Electric car: an enabler for renewables
Agenda
Source: McKinsey
Primary
Secondary
EV
Categories
2011 2012 2013 2014 201510,000.00
100,000.00
1,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%58,000,000.00 61,000,000.00 63,000,000.00 65,000,000.00 66,000,000.00
50,000.00
125,760.00
212,986.00315,519.00
540,228.00
Passenger Cars sales Ev sales %
EV Market
Source: DOE
EV Global Sales and Share
Total EV sales (2015): 540.228Total car sales (2015): 66 milEV share: 0,8%
EV Market
Source: EV Volumes.com
Global EV sales by model
Country EV Sales 2015China 165153
Japan 93142
Usa 92010
Germany 75561
Others 73526
France 18671
South korea 8204
Sweden 6950
Italy 6204
Totale complessivo 539421
EV Type Sales 2015
BEV 277463
PHEV 171573
EV 73526
REEV 16859
Totale complessivo 539421
EV Market
Global EV sales by country
Global EV sales by category
Global EV sales of light-duty plug-in electric vehicles (2011-2015)
EV Market
Source: USA Department of Energy
EV Market: forecasts
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Marklines
EV Market: forecasts
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Marklines
The incertain future of EV (2020)
EV Market: forecasts
Source: icct
Why Electric?Electric Car Market
Current PictureForecasts
OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it
Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective
Electric car: an enabler for renewables
Agenda
Typical questions about petrol-engine cars
How fast does it go?
What’s the average consumption?
How big is it?Doest it have a beautiful design?
How’s the gearbox?
Range anxiety
Range Anxyety
Typical questions about petrol-engine cars
What is its range?
! !
Range anxiety
Is range a real problem?
Range anxiety
<30 km <50 km <100 km <150 km <200 km <250 km0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Average daily mileage of M1 and N1 vehicles in Europe
Source: RSE
98% of daily paths in Europe is lower than the average autonomy of the electric vehicles marketed in 2016 (27-30 kWh batteries)
Ranges available vs price
Car Range [km] Price [€]Citroen C0 150 30,000
Bmw i3 190 (300 with range extender) 36,500
Mercedes B ED 230 41,000
Renault Zoe 240 22,000
Nissan Leaf 250 25,000
Tesla S 90 550 105,000
Range anxiety
Today, good range is available but means high price (Tesla)!
Why Electric?Electric Car Market
Current PictureForecasts
OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it
Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective
Electric car: an enabler for renewables
Agenda
Batteries’ Potential
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mass market EV’s
Premium EV’s
24 kWh
~ 400 km~ 250 km~ 180 km
~ 450 km
~ 140 km
>80 kWh
>70 kWh>40 kWh>30 kWh
Evolution in batteries technology
Car Battery [kWh] Estimated Battery cost Car price %
Citroen C0 16 3200 30000 11%
Bmw i3 18 3600 36500 10%
Mercedes B ED 28 5600 41000 14%
Renault Zoe 22 4400 22000 20%
Nissan Leaf 24 4800 25000 19%
Tesla S 90 90 18000 105000 17%
Medium battery price: 200€/kWh
Batteries’ Potential
Batteries’ Potential
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Marklines
Why Electric?Electric Car Market
Current PictureForecasts
OutlooksRange anxiety, a real problem?Range: how to improve it
Batteries’ potentialFast charging: TSO perspective
Electric car: an enabler for renewables
Agenda
Fast charging implies high power
Source: Terna
Fast charging
Tesla fast charging stations > 100 kW
Renewables will transform
electricity fares from energy driven
to power driven
High power is and will be expensive
Renewables make TSO life challengingStandard deviation of the load will increase.How to dimension the electric transportation system?
Accumulation
Slow and intermediate charging
Electric vehicles will be distributed with accumulatorsElectric vehicles are a source of loading balancing for
TSO (Transmission System Operator)
Electric vehicles are an enabling factor for renewable energies through smart grids
Slow and intermediate charging
Source: McKinsey
Slow and intermediate charging
Need of private financing
Win for TSO
RENEWABLES
Energy standard deviation increase
Need to adsorb peaks
EV slow charge: accumulating opportunity
Energy variable cost
Fares driven by power
Expensive fast charging
• At today conditions (high range costs) regulations are the reason to invest on electric vehicles
• EV market in 2020 will be 7x today market• China is (and will be) main EV market• EV will boom when range will be more
affordable• TSO see EV as an opportunity
Conclusions
Conclusions