1

Electoral Support Populist/Radical Right-wing Parties European Democracies*

(average % valid votes in last general election across countries)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3019

80

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

"New" Democracies "Old" Democracies

Source: Timbro Authoritarian Populisms Index (classification according to consensus in academic literature, Chapel Hill Expert Survey, parties-and-elections.eu, Wikipedia)

*EU, UK, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Serbia, Montenegro

23 March 2021Katja Salomo/WZB

23 March 2021Katja Salomo/WZB

2

Populist Right-wing Parties in European Governments

current or last election period

Source: Timbro Authoritarian Populisms Index (classification according to consensus in academic literature, Chapel Hill Expert Survey, parties-and-elections.eu, Wikipedia)

23 March 2021Katja Salomo/WZB3

Re

lati

ve w

ealt

h a

nd

co

mfo

rt

he

lpe

d in

by

ne

olib

eral

sh

ift also

amo

ng

left

-win

g p

arti

es (e

.g.I

ngl

ehar

t 1

97

7)

New cleavage: minority rights, gender equality, migration, etc.

surpass economic issues (e.g. Inglehart & Pippa 2017)

Activation: Voters weight cultural over economic issues

(e.g. Müller 2016)

Right-wing parties… love it!, incentivized to leverage new cleavage (e.g. Helbling 2014)

Left-wing parties lose voters to right-wing parties

(e.g. Gingrich & Häusermann 2015; Inglehart & Pippa 2017)

Population/voter attitudes: Resentment of migrants, social minorities, women; democratic discontentment

New populist & radical right-wing parties

backlash, representation gap

Mainstream parties adapt nationalist,

resentful rhetoric(Abou-Chadi, Krause 2020)

If successful(e.g. Golder 2003)

Party cueing(e.g. Bohmann 2011,

Meijers & Williams 2020)

(Lack of) Contact to minorities:

Social relationships, habituation, cultural exposure

Perceived threat: Sociotropic concerns about, distribu-

tional conflicts because (growing presence/rights of) minorities

Grievances: Deprivation, inequality,

anxiety

Social disintegration: Disorder, isolation,

mistrust

Socialization contexts:National traumata, length

democratic tradition, period effects, social background

Katja Salomo/WZB 4

Local: contact/hab.

Country-level: threat

Frame, scapegoat, increase salienceb

Force left-wing parties into nationalist rhetoric

Social media: locally targetedc flooding,

activation, persuasion, sabotaging

Scapegoating…e

(Mismanaged)geopolitical incidents

(Mismanaged)epidemics/disasters

Socioeconomic PoliciesImmigration policy/

Immigration(Additional)

Party campaigningHistory…or?

Establish low personal tax regime

Combine with high income inequality (tradeoff)

PoorLocal services in

opponents' constituenciesa

Just comfort-

tableDo not prevent sudden

increases of immigration

Notes on political system/Other

bCut funding to public service media, build partisan pressure

Increase local social disorder

CreatePlaces that don‘t matter

Cut social expenditures, target

Frustrate work of trade unions

Restrict integration policies

Immigration in high disorder contexts

Create Hostile environments

Compare immigration to rest of Europe constantly

… or have low incomeinequality

Slow acculturation in Places that don‘t matter

aHave centralized political system.

cMore effective with first-past-the-post or direct vote in mixed-member proportional electoral systemsdWhat politicians a party attract/promote if focus partly lies on inflicting strategic misery, scapegoating?eLess important if electoral system successfully skewed (gerrymandering, disenfranchise, siphon votes, etc.)

23 March 2021

For references please see slide 9pp.

23 March 2021Katja Salomo/WZB5

Daily Express: “Fury at ‘soft checks’ on child migrants: Adults pretending to be children say aid workers”

The Sun: “TELL US THE TOOTH MPs demand dental tests of ‘child’ migrants as concerns grow over ages of asylum kids arriving in Britain who look closer to 40” (Tory MP David Davies)

Daily Mail: “The ‘child refugees’ debate”

Guardian: “First group of refugee children arrives in Britain from Calais”

The Telegraph: “'These don't look like children to me': concerns raised over ages of child refugees arriving in Britain”

23 March 2021Katja Salomo/WZB

6

Places that don‘t matter (in purple…)

23 March 2021Katja Salomo/WZB7

23 March 2021Katja Salomo/WZB

8

Thank you!

katja.salomo@wzb.eu

9

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