Election Review - People · 2016 Election Popular Votes Electoral Votes Clinton 60,839,922 232...
Transcript of Election Review - People · 2016 Election Popular Votes Electoral Votes Clinton 60,839,922 232...
![Page 1: Election Review - People · 2016 Election Popular Votes Electoral Votes Clinton 60,839,922 232 Trump 60,265,858 306 Source: Woolley and Peters, The American Presidency Project](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f169fcaec92e64309579131/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Election ReviewPeter Licari
Robert Mermer
Stephen Phillips
Marah Schlingensiepen
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2016 Election
Popular Votes Electoral Votes
Clinton 60,839,922 232
Trump 60,265,858 306
Source: Woolley and Peters, The American Presidency Project
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“For the Love of Money”
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Were the Polls Wrong?• National vs. state polls
• Exit polls
• Methodology
Likely voter models
(electorate)
“Bradley effect”
(social desirability
bias)
Nonresponse bias
Large number of
late undecideds
![Page 6: Election Review - People · 2016 Election Popular Votes Electoral Votes Clinton 60,839,922 232 Trump 60,265,858 306 Source: Woolley and Peters, The American Presidency Project](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060419/5f169fcaec92e64309579131/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Trump Wave or Clinton Collapse?
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“It’s the economy, stupid”
Clinton Trump Other
Clinton
46%96% 1% 3%
Trump
49%3% 94% 3%
Who would better handle the economy?
Clinton Trump Other
Excellent
3%83% 16% 1%
Good
33%76% 19% 5%
Not Good
41%39% 55% 6%
Poor
21%15% 79% 6%
Condition of the national economy?
Clinton Trump Other
Right
Direction
33%
90% 8% 2%
Wrong
Direction
62%
25% 69% 6%
Direction of the country?
Source: National Election Pool
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Demographics
56
65
65
88
37
54
41
7
6
6
4
5
4
6
37
29
29
8
58
42
53
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Other
Asian
Hispanic/Latino
Black
White
Female
Male
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
+11
+1
+7
From
2012
+8
+5
+1
+1
Source: National Election Pool
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Age
45
44
50
55
2
3
8
8
53
53
42
37
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
65 and over
45-64
30-44
18-29
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
+1
+5
+4
From
2012
+5
Source: National Election Pool
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Income
46
48
47
46
51
53
6
3
5
4
7
6
48
49
48
50
42
41
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
$250,000 or more
$200,000 - $249,999
$100,000 - $199,999
$50,000 - $99,999
$30,000 - $49,999
Under $30,000
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
+16
+6
+2
+9
From
2012
Source: National Election Pool
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Education
58
49
43
45
5
6
5
4
37
45
52
51
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Postgraduate study
College graduate
Some college/associate degree
High school or less
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
+10
+8
+8
From
2012
Source: National Election Pool
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When did they decide to vote?
52
46
37
38
44
3
4
12
12
10
45
50
51
50
46
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Before that
In September
In October
In the last week
In the last few days
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Source: National Election Pool
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The Trump Administration• What happens next?
• Where do we go from here?
• Does Trump moderate?
• Will the formal and informal checks and balances work?
USA Today