Election '08 - Daily Tracking, Oct13b · EKOS ELECTION.COM – OCTOBER 2008 DAILY TRACKING...

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EKOS ELECTION.COM – OCTOBER 2008

DAILY TRACKING

CANADA’S LARGEST-EVER POLITICAL SURVEY: FINAL NUMBERS [OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – EKOS is proud to present the final tracking poll of the 2008 federal election campaign. With our new IVR methodology, which allows us to gather much larger samples than traditional surveys, we have heard from an unprecedented 41,000 Canadians. In addition, using our unique hybrid online/telephone panel, Probit, we connected with thousands more.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Daily national federal vote intention numbers: CPC 34.8%, Liberal 26.4%, NDP 19.4%, Green Party 9.6%, and the BQ 9.8%.

Please note that the methodology and detailed tables of these and other results discussed in this release are provided at the end of this document.

In sum, we conducted what we believe to be the largest political survey project in Canadian history. We want to thank those many Canadians who contributed in this way to helping their fellow citizens understand the dynamics of this election campaign. This final tracking poll does not show any dramatic change over the Thanksgiving weekend. However there have been some shifts that may prove significant:

• In the see-saw battle for Ontario, the Conservatives have regained the slight lead that they had ceded to the Liberals in recent nights;

• In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois retain a very large lead over the Liberals and Conservatives who are virtually tied;

• Liberal and Conservative voters are now about equally committed nationally; • However, New Democrat and Green Party supporters are not as firmly

committed as the two front-running parties, and may be subject to further erosion before all the votes are counted.

If there is a wild card it may be Quebec, where more than a fifth of respondents still say they may change their mind before going to vote. There is also considerable softness in the Green Party support, and to a lesser extent the NDP support, which may mean that some of these voters either change their preference or don’t show up to vote at all tomorrow. However, there are relatively few “undecideds” left and most of those probably will not vote. They do not constitute a cavalry that any party can depend on to save them.

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“There have been interesting rhythms to this campaign, and some dramatic events,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “A back-and-forth battle for Ontario, a setback for the Conservatives in Quebec, the emergence of Elizabeth May as a national figure to be reckoned with, and of course the unanticipated international financial crisis. But there have not been the dramatic changes in course that we have seen in some other election campaigns. The parties are still in the same order as they were at the start, and the same is likely to be true of the new Parliament. In the weeks to come, EKOS will be using the data base we assembled during the election campaign, as well as both the Probit and IVR methodologies to continue our research into the implications of the 2008 election.

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Detailed Tables:

Certainty of Voting in Tuesday’s Election Q. How certain are you to vote in the federal election this coming Tuesday, October 14th?

BASE: Canadians CANADA CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Undecided

Absolutely certain 87.5 91.8 91.1 82.3 80.6 87.5 71.7

Quite certain 6.5 4.3 6.3 9.3 10.5 6.5 4.8

Not sure 6.1 3.9 2.5 8.4 8.9 6.1 23.5

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National Federal Vote Intention (a)1 Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

BASE: Decided Voters CANADA BC AB SK/MB ON QC ATL n= 2358 390 229 208 523 571 437

Margin of error (+/-)= 2.0 5.0 6.5 6.8 4.3 4.1 4.7

34.8 36.4 56.1 47.4 36.8 21.3 24.7

26.4 24.9 16.0 16.7 33.4 20.7 33.4

19.4 24.7 17.1 28.8 19.2 12.0 31.1

9.6 14.0 10.9 7.2 10.6 5.2 10.8

9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.7 0.0

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 11 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

C

L

N

G

B

2006ElectionResults Vote Tracking: September-October ‘08

1 The data presented in this and our other tables on federal vote intention are based on decided voters only. Our survey

also finds that 6.2% of Canadians say they are undecided.

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 11 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

C

L

N

G

British Columbia


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

03 11 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

C

L

N

G

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Alberta


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 11 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

C

L

N

G

Saskatchewan & Manitoba

SK MB


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 11 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

C

L

N

G

Ontario


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 11 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

C

L

N

G

B

Quebec


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 11 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

C

L

N

G

2006ElectionResults

Atlantic CanadaNB NS PEI NF

Vote Tracking: September-October ‘08

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National Federal Vote Intention (b) Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

Sex Age Income BASE: Decided Voters CANADA

M F <25 25-44 45-64 65+ <$40K

$40-80K

+$80K

n= 2358 1090 1268 183 754 985 436 709 887 762

Margin of error= 2.0 3.0 2.8 7.2 3.6 3.1 4.7 3.7 3.3 3.5

34.8 40.5 29.4 21.8 31.9 37.4 44.2 28.5 38.1 37.0

26.4 24.3 28.4 18.7 24.7 29.8 28.1 23.9 25.1 30.3

19.4 18.6 20.2 25.6 21.5 16.8 16.4 22.2 20.7 15.3

9.6 6.8 12.2 16.2 9.9 8.2 7.2 10.6 7.9 10.5

9.8 9.8 9.8 17.7 12.0 7.8 4.1 14.8 8.3 6.8

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Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election on October

14?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote CANADA CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Undecided

Not likely (1-3) 80.3 86.9 88.3 79.5 70.8 83.2 26.5

Somewhat likely (4) 5.8 4.3 4.6 7.3 7.6 2.4 16.4

Likely (5-7) 13.9 8.8 7.1 13.2 21.6 14.4 57.1

Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

C

L

N

G

B

Undecided

% “likely” to change mind before electionCurrent vote intention

September-October 2008

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Second Choice Q. Which Party would be your second choice?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote CANADA CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Undecided

8.3 0.0 12.6 13.8 16.9 8.4 5.6

17.0 18.8 0.0 33.9 27.9 17.0 9.3

19.5 15.2 35.8 0.0 27.6 25.4 15.2

17.6 14.1 23.7 25.1 0.0 20.8 10.2

4.6 2.2 4.4 8.5 7.9 0.0 6.0

No second choice 33.0 49.7 23.5 18.6 19.7 28.4 53.7

Tracking Second Choice

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

C

L

N

G

B

No secondchoice

Current vote intention

September-October 2008

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Likely Winner (a) Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will

win?

BASE: Those planning to vote CANADA BC AB SK/MB ON QC ATL

64.0 64.1 79.8 73.6 65.3 54.7 58.4

23.8 23.5 13.7 14.3 26.5 24.4 30.4

6.4 8.5 4.7 9.3 6.3 4.5 9.0

2.3 3.9 1.8 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.2

3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.4 0.0

Tracking Likely Winner

65 63 61 62 64

23 24 26 25 23.8

7 7 7 6 6.42 3 2 3 2.33 4 4 4 3.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

09 10 11 12 13

C

L

N

G

B

October 2008

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Likely Winner (b) Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will

win?

Current Vote Intention BASE: Those planning to vote CANADA CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Undecided

64.0 93.6 46.1 52.3 61.1 40.8 55.2

23.8 3.9 51.0 22.6 23.8 24.3 21.3

6.4 0.9 1.4 23.2 2.9 4.1 13.7

2.3 1.6 1.2 1.0 8.4 1.1 5.9

3.5 0.0 0.4 0.8 3.8 29.8 3.8

Methodology: EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 11, 12 and 13.

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In total, 2561 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/- 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Election '08 - Daily Tracking, Oct13b · EKOS ELECTION.COM – OCTOBER 2008 DAILY TRACKING...

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