El Nino stills winter winds across the southern Canadian Prairies
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ELNIÑO STILLS WINTER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES (AND THAT’S BOTH GOOD AND BAD NEWS FOR THE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY) SCOTT ST. GEORGE STEPHEN WOLFE
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Transcript of El Nino stills winter winds across the southern Canadian Prairies
ELNIÑOSTILLS WINTER WINDS ACROSSTHE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES (AND THAT’S BOTH GOOD AND BAD NEWS FOR THE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY)
SCOTT ST. GEORGE STEPHEN WOLFE
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
3,432
2,246
1,770
1,460
684
444322
236198137
Source: Canadian Wind Energy Association
wind energy (MW)
“add[s] significantly to the uncertainty in predicating the energy output of a wind farm at a particular location during its projected lifetime.
INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
”
not well understood
INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
“ ”
Source: Wan et al., Journal of Climate, 2010
Uncorrected wind speed records contain discontinuities caused by non-climatic effects
Wan, H. Wang, X.L. and Swail, V.R. (2010). Homogenization and trend analysis of Canadian near-surface winds. Journal of Climate 23, 1209-1225.
mean annual wind speed@ 10 m
photo: Andy van der Raadt
Wind farms on the Canadian Prairies produce nearly one gigawatt of electricity
mean annual wind speed@ 10 m
Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
Mean winter wind speed, southern Canadian Prairies
legend not to scale
Low-wind winters (1954 to 2006)
1969 • 1978 • 1983
1993 • 1995 • 1998
wind anomalies during the 1998 winter
legend not to scale
SST and geopotential height anomalies during low-wind winters
Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009
scalar wind anomalies@ 250 millibars
scalar wind anomalies@ 250 millibars
[The next strong El Niño] ... may also test the ability of Prairie wind farms to maintain expected energy outputs during a prolonged interval of unusually weak winds.
“”
Geophysical Research LettersDecember 2009
Sea-surface temperature anomalies during the 2009-2010 winter
Scalar wind anomalies @ 250 mb during the 2009-2010 winter
...our wind resources in the quarter were down approximately 30 percent, compared to what we would see in a normal year. As a result, expected production from our wind facilities was lower by roughly 200 gigawatt hours.
Stephen SnyderPresident and Chief Executive Officer
April 27, 2010
“
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ELNIÑOSTILLS WINTER WINDS ACROSSTHE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES (AND THAT’S BOTH GOOD AND BAD NEWS FOR THE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY)
SCOTT ST. GEORGE STEPHEN WOLFE
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