EKOS poll - Sept. 2, 2010
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Transcript of EKOS poll - Sept. 2, 2010
8/8/2019 EKOS poll - Sept. 2, 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/ekos-poll-sept-2-2010 1/10
Page 1
www.ekospolit ics.ca
R ACE D EADLOCKED AS C ONSERVATIVES F ALTER ON C ENSUS
D ECISION : E DUCA TION E MERGING AS C RUCIAL F AULT LINE IN P OLITICAL LANDSCA PE
[Ottawa – September 2, 2010] – In a surprising
development, we see the political landscape now
in a dead heat between the Liberals and
Conservatives. There is clear evidence as to why
the Conservatives have squandered a
comfortable 11 point lead at the beginning of the
summer; and there are interesting hints as to
what issues and forces may shape the fall seasonand any ensuing election over the next year.
In the last week of polling, the Conservatives and
the Liberals were in an almost exact tie at 29.4%
and 29.1%, respectively. The NDP, the Green
Party, and the Bloc show little change (although
the Greens and the Bloc are up modestly). The
demographics show that the Liberal move to a
tied position is almost exclusively a product of a
major shift in how the university educated are
leaning. The Conservatives have shed many of their university educated supporters and the
Liberal Party has picked them up (as well as
some possible gains from other university
educated voters).
In seeking an explanation for these movements,
we need look no further than the government's
ill-received decision to end the mandatory long
HIGHLIGHTS
• Nationa l federal vote intention:
¤ 29.4% CPC
¤ 29.1% LPC
¤ 15.7% NDP
¤ 13.0% Green
¤ 10.9% BQ
¤ 2.0% other
• Direction of country:
¤ 47.7% right direction
¤ 39.6% wrong direction
¤ 12.7% DK/ NR
• :Direction of government
¤ 40.6% right direction
¤ 48.2% wrong direction
¤ 11.2% DK/ NR
• Perceived trade off of eliminatin gthe long form census:
¤ 56% A voluntary survey wil lcause vital information to be lost
¤ 26% The mandatory long formwas a violation of privacy
¤ 18% DK/NR
Please note that the e m thodology is provided at the
end of this document.
form census. Not only does the shift of the highly educated support this conclusion, but a direct
question on public approval for this decision provides compelling evidence that this move
precipitated the current woes that the Conservative Party now faces.
When asked whether they felt that the privacy intrusion of the census justified a voluntary census
or whether the lack of representativeness would cost us vital data, a clear majority of the public
(56%) picked the latter (compared 26% who felt the mandatory long form was a violation of
privacy). Even among Tory supporters, this appeal is not selling and there is an overwhelming
lean to disapproval in the rest of the spectrum. Opposition to this decision is strongest among the
university educated.
8/8/2019 EKOS poll - Sept. 2, 2010
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We also see that there is a strong connection between the belief that the federal government is
moving in the wrong direction and disapproval of this decision. On the issue of directional
satisfaction, we continue to see that only around 40% of voters approve of federal direction but
we have also seen a sharp decline in confidence in the direction of the country itself. This level of
approval is dramatically different across the remaining Conservative base (who overwhelmingly
approve) and the rest of the spectrum (who are decisively underwhelmed).
The regional numbers suggest that the government has significant directional issues with BC,
Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic and these are associated with declining Conservative voter
support in each of those regions. Quebec, in particular, stands out as a very serious problem for
the Conservatives but they also trail significantly now in Ontario and the Atlantic. The
Conservatives are very strong in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba and they retain their core
supporters (male, older, college educated). They have, however, faltered badly with women as
well as with the university educated.
Although the Liberals are doing better than they were at the outset of the summer, this may be
more of a story of Conservative losses. A re-examination of leader approval ratings reinforces this
conclusion. Michael Ignatieff may be getting better press coverage, and his party has at least
temporarily drawn even with the Conservatives, but he still suffers from the lowest approval
rating of any of the party leaders (22%). This figure has changed little over the last few months,
but this new found party parity, as well as the Liberal Party’s strength with the highly educated (
a group rich in opinion leaders), may yield future benefits.
Stephen Harper, however, will find little of cheer in his approval numbers. He has the highest
disapproval rating and he has even less appeal outside of his current base than Michael Ignatieff.
In fact, it is difficult to combine the very negative numbers outside of his base with an immediate
opportunity for a dramatic recovery. It will also be interesting to see how the framing of stable
Conservative majority versus risky coalition fares when Mr. Harper is below 30 points and
profoundly short of a majority. With these current numbers, he would be just as likely to be
leader of the opposition as Prime Minister and the likelihood of a majority is very remote indeed.
The Prime Minister may take comfort in noting that he did very well in the September/October
period last year but the defection of the highly educated and the overall trajectory of things are
not favouring him at the moment. The analysis suggests his best prospects lie in recapturing
those who have defected to the Liberals. Mr. Harper’s approval ratings are also slightly better
with the undecided than those of Mr. Ignatieff.
Mr. Ignatieff may want to construct a "big red tent", but the approval ratings suggest that his
opportunities for expanding his constituency all lie to the left of the Conservatives. For the
remaining Conservative base (who are very loyal to Mr. Harper), Mr. Ignatieff is anathema with
an approval rating of 8%. He is, however, seen as considerably less objectionable in other parts
of the political spectrum than Stephen Harper.
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On a final note, Jack Layton's lustre seems diminished from the past. While he is still the only
tested leader with a net positive approval rating, that margin has shrunk. He does very well with
women and in Quebec. The looming gun registry challenge may pose special challenges for Mr.
Layton with these two favourable constituent groups (who tend to be strongly in favour of gun
control)
All of this sets the table for a fascinating fall session in a newly deadlocked political landscape
which increasingly reveals a large fault line organized along social class and educational divisions.
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Top Line Results:
Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission
Fed eral vo te Intention: August 25-31
BASE: Decided Voters; August 25-31, 2010 (n=1,346)
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
29.4 29.1
15.713.0
10.9
2.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ OtherOther
Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission
0
10
20
30
40
50
Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10
Line
6
2008
Election
Results
Note: The da ta on fed eral vote intention are based on de cide d voters only.Our survey also finds that 13.4% of Ca nadia ns are und ecid ed/ ineligible to vote.
Other
BASE: Decided voters; most recent data point August 25-31, 2010 (n=1,346)
Weekly trac king of federal vote intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
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Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission
20
30
40
50
60
May-09 Ju l-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Ju l-10 Sep-10
Wrong direction Right direction
BASE: Canadians; most recent data point August 25-31, 2010 (n=half sample)
Direc tion of c ountry
Q. All things considered, would you say the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission
20
30
40
50
60
May-09 Ju l-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Ju l-10 Sep-10
Wrong direction Right direction
BASE: Canadians; most recent data point August 25-31, 2010 (n=half sample)
Direc tion of government
Q. All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong
direction?
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Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission
Job ap proval ratings
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way … is handling his job?
16
30 31
52
48
31
32
22
38
0
20
40
60
80
100
...Stephen Harper… …Michael Ignatieff… ...Jack Layton…
DK/NR Disapprove Approve
BASE: Canadians; August 18-31, 2010 (n=3,559)
Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10
Approve Disapprove DK/NR
BASE: Canadians; most recent data point August 18-31, 2010 (n=3,559)
Trac king job ap prova l ratings for Stephen Harpe r
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Stephen Harper is handling his job?
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Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10
Approve Disapprove DK/NR
BASE: Canadians; most recent data point August 18-31, 2010 (n=3,559)
Trac king job ap prova l ratings for Michael Ignatieff
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Ignatieff is handling his job?
Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10
Approve Disapprove DK/NR
BASE: Canadians; most recent data point August 18-31, 2010 (n=3,559)
Trac king job ap prova l ratings for Jac k Lay ton
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jack Layton is handling his job?
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Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission
56
26
18
0
20
40
60
80
100
A voluntary survey will cause
vital information to be lost
The mandatory long form
violated privacy rights
DK/NR
Perce ived trade -o ff of eliminating the long form c ensus
Q. Some people say that the mandatory long form census which one in five households received was an unnecessary violation of individual privacy rights and that a voluntary approach would be better. Others say that by shifting to a
voluntary method this census will no longer be truly representative and vital information will be lost. Which of these statements comes closer to your own po int of view?
Higher among:University grads (71%),
LPC (68%), NDP (62%),Ontario (60%),
Higher among:CPC (33%), HS grads(33%), College grads(30%), Alberta (30%),
Seniors (30%)BASE: Canadians; August 18-31, 2010 (n=3,559)
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Methodology:
EKOS’ weekly tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology,
which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone,
rather than telling them to an operator.
In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell
phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with both a
landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households. This
dual frame yields a near perfect unweighted distribution on age group and gender, something
almost never seen with traditional landline RDD sample or interviewer-administered surveys.
Data for this survey was collected over two time periods. The field dates for the first portion of
the survey (federal vote intention, direction of country, and direction of government) are August
25 – August 31, 2010.1 In total, a random sample of 1,555 Canadians aged 18 and over
responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 1,346 decided voters). The margin of error
associated with the total sample is +/-2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The field dates for the second portion of the survey (job approval ratings and attitudes towards
the elimination of the long form census) are August 18 – August 31, 2010. In total, a random
sample of 3,559 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of
1,346 decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-1.6 percentage
points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error
margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically
weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada
according to Census data.
1 Please note that these dates are not inclusive of weekends, as we do not survey on Saturday or Sunday.
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Annex:
Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission
Fed eral vo te Intention: August 18-24
BASE: Decided Voters; August 18-24, 2010 (n=1,736)
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
31.127.7
16.7
10.7 11.2
2.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ OtherOther