einstitute.worldbank.org

Climate Change, Disaster Risk and the Urban PoorFebruary 16, 2012: | 10:00 AM EST

Speaker: Judy L. Baker

Lead Economist, Urban Practice,

World Bank Institute

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Presentation

o I. Background and Approacho II. Vulnerability of Citieso III. Vulnerability of the Urban Pooro IV. Building Resilience for the Urban

Poor

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I. Background

o The Mayor’s Task Force launched in December ‘09 at Mayor’s Summit in Copenhagen during COP-15

o Objectives:• Better understand the links among climate change,

disaster risk and the urban poor• Identify good practices for building resilience• Propose policy and investment programs for scaling up

efforts to reduce risk for the urban poor• Task Force Members: Dar es Salaam, Jakarta, Mexico

City and Sao Paulo

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Approach

o Global Study • Led by World Bank, brought together global experiences

o City Level Case Studies• Risk assessments following three pillar approach “Urban

Risk Assessment” to assess institutional, socioeconomic, and hazard impact

– Teams included city officials, local experts, and World Bank– Compiled existing information– Field work included institutional mapping, interviews in low

income areas

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II. Vulnerability of Cities

• Urbanization is defining this century• 70 million people move to cities each year• Pressure on cities to provide urban infrastructure,

services and safe land• Cities are vulnerable to climate change and natural

hazards• Often located in coastal areas, along rivers, seismic

zones, and cyclone prone zones.• Changing climate results in more extreme weather

events leading to flooding and coastal storms, sea-level rise, and higher temperatures

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Vulnerability of Cities

o Significant impacts on infrastructure, basic services, natural environment and residents • Built environment• Natural environment • Residents

o Impacts of disasters are more devastating in cities due to high concentration of economic assets and people

o Multiple efforts to rank exposure in cities; all show increasing risk

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III. Vulnerability of the Urban Poor

o Urban Poor are on the front line• Most affected by low intensity, high frequency events• Live on most undesirable lands which are more

affordable – Steep hillsides, flood plains, coastal areas– Housing quality is very low

• Basic services are limited– Poor drainage, solid waste collection, water and

sanitation, roads – heavy rains turn into floods– Risk of water scarcity, contamination

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Vulnerability of the Urban Poor

o Risks linked to density• Disease can spread rapidly through slums

o Layout and site conditions of slums can vary also affecting risk• High density, hazardous locations, and irregular layout of

slums present highest risko Less information, fewer safety nets for protectiono Coping mechanisms rely on social networks, and adhoc

adaptation• Can sometimes include risk of maladaptation

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IV. Building Resilience for the Urban Poor o Cities are the drivers for addressing urban risko Recommended actions require strong institutions for

designing and implementing integrated policieso Key areas:

i. Understanding risk at the city and community level

ii. Integrating climate change and disaster risk reduction for the poor into urban planning

iii.Providing basic services in low income areas

iv.Bridging communities and local governments to work together

v. Opening new finance opportunities

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i. Understanding risk

o City and community level risk assessments are needed to inform decision making, action plans

o Urban Risk Assessment Framework

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Jakarta Slum Areas and Flooding

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Understanding risk, lessons

o Data, data, data• Critical for decision making

o Mapping informal settlements • Increasingly done by residents themselves, with new

technologyo Key lessons from city cases:

– Multidimensional approach is useful– High level support critical– Coordination across agencies is essential– Access to information was difficult

o Action planning is a natural follow up to process involving multiple agencies

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ii. Integrating risk reduction into urban planning and managemento A growing list of cities provide good examples: e.g. Cape

Town, Ho Chi Minh City, Quito, Jakartao Balancing policy tradeoffs between risk reduction, urban

development and poverty reduction is difficult making• Land use policies are most instrumental

– Prevent building and settlements in high risk areas– Proactive sites and services projects reduce risk, but often in

periphery

• Efficient transport systems– Can increase land supply with access and mobility– Can result in urban sprawl

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Integrating risk reduction into urban planning and management

o Investing in slum upgrading and basic service provision reduces risk• Sometimes resettlement will be necessary

o How to address uncertainty in planning?• Tools such as ‘robust decision making’ are being used. • Approach aims to minimize negative consequences for

stakeholders and identify choices that are robust over many future scenarios

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iii. Strengthening Institutional Capacity to Deliver Resultso Cities are the drivers for addressing risk

• Multiple agencies currently involved – Basic Service Provision, Climate Change, Disaster Management,

Urban Planning and management, Poverty Reduction Programs

• Institutional arrangements typically complex spanning municipal & administrative boundaries

• Strengthening institutional capacity requires collaborative governance, involving multiple stakeholders

– Approach may require new mechanism that is formalized such as inter-agency working group

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Strengthening Institutional Capacity to Deliver Results

o Good practices in service delivery, slum upgrading early warning systems, safety nets exist• Lessons: implemented with strong political commitment and

leadership, good governance, good management including coordination across groups, community participation.

– May require new incentives, structured reward system

• Capacity Building Programs– WBI E-Institute– Knowledge Exchange activities– Peer learning– Research institutions

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iv. Bridging communities and local governments to work togethero Much is happening at the community level

• Gap between local governments and poor often around informal settlements, much need in linking communities to network infrastructure

o Numerous good examples exist• Facilitated through mutual recognition of roles• Understanding what is happening at the local level• Understanding what city’s constraints are• Strong local organizations and leaders are important

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v. Opening new financing sources

o Major financing needs for urban infrastructure and basic services, information systems, safety nets and capacity building• Estimating the cost of adaptation is challenging

– Cost-Benefit has been used– Casablanca case: Early warning systems are very cost

effective– Experiences with costs for slum improvements

o Existing resources rely on national and local revenues, private sector, PPPs, loans and grants through development banks• Few climate change programs explicitly for cities, or for the poor

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For more information

www.worldbank.org/urban

jbaker2@worldbank.org

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Thank You!

World Bank InstituteThe World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433Tel: (202) 473-7243

Judy BakerLead Economist, Urban Practice