Egypt National Security

Egyptian National SecurityPre-Mubarak Fall

Key Strategic Points

• Egypt = Oldest continuous nation-state in M.E.• Egypt = Most homogeneous nation-state in

M.E.• Egypt = Under extended foreign domination• Egypt = Easy to invade/not easy to defend• Egypt = “Gift of the Nile.” Herodotus• Egypt = Leading Arab power• Egypt = Strategic Rentier State • Egypt = Military is paramount in national

security

Egyptian National Security in modern times, 1952-1981(I)

• National Security under Nasser I, 1952-1956:– Ext. threats: Britain, France, Israel– Int. threats: Communists, Islamists, Weakness of the Military

• National Security under Nasser II, 1956-1970:– Ext. threats: Israel, the West, Arab monarchies– Int. threats: Islamists, Socioeconomic Crises, Leftists, – Functional threats: Weapons of Mass Destruction, Water

• National Security under Sadat I, 1970-1973:– Ext. threats: Israel, Israel, Israel– Int. threats: Political Factions, Left-wing groups, Students &

Intellectuals, Islamists, Armed Forces

Egyptian National Security

in modern times, 1952-1981 (II)• National Security under Sadat II, 1973-1978:– Ext. threats: Israel, Libya, Ethiopia, Instability in

Africa & Sudan, threats to Arab monarchies– Int. threats: Islamists, Left-wing, Socioeconomic

crises, Armed Forces

• National Security under Sadat, III, 1979-1981:– Ext. threats: Israel, Libya, Soviet Union, Africa south

of the Sahara, Islamic Republic of Iran, – Int. threats: Political and socioeconomic crises,

Armed Forces– Functional threats: WMD proliferation, General

Regional Instability, Water

Egyptian National Security under Husni Mubarak, 1981-Present • External Threats:

– Israel– Iran– Iraq– Sudan– Libya– Islamic Radical Infiltration

• Internal Threats:– Islamist Insurgency– Socioeconomic Crisis– Political Delegitimization

• Functional Threats: – WMD Proliferation and Strategic Imbalance– General Regional Instability

Egyptian National Security:Role of U.S./Egypt and Nukes• Egypt and U.S.: From Adversary to Ally/Mentor

– Benefits: • Relationship w/ most powerful nation• High-tech military• Socioeconomic Aid

– Costs:• Constraints on independence• Favors Israel• Causes more instability than removes it

• Egypt and Nukes:– Why do states seek Nukes: Int. System exp.; State

exp.; Nuclear Myth-makers and Domestic Politics exp.; Technological exp.

– Why do states forego Nukes: Costs, reliance on major ally, lowered security threat