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Monitoring, RemoteSensing

SatelliteRemote-sensing

Warnings

Data IntegrationAssimilationIn-situ Monitoring

Weather Forecast

Disaster RiskReduction

Sustainable Future

Planning

Future

Projection

Climate Change Simulation

Socio-Economic

InformationLand HydrologicalModeling

Shinjiro KANAE, Prof., Department of Civil Engineering

Tokyo Institute of Technology

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Climate Change

Social and Land use change

Application:

Water resources assessment

Flood risk assessment

Drought risk

Modeling & Numerical Simulation

& Application

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Global Water Resources

Assessment

and

Virtual Water Trade

3

Shinjiro Kanae

Department of Civil Engineering

Tokyo Institute of Technology

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Water Crisis?

In August 1995,

Dr. Ismail Serageldin warned

(Director(?), Library of Alexandria,

and Vice President of World Bank in 1995,

and (is/was?) a board member of E-JUST.)

"if the wars of this century were fought over oil, the

wars of the next century will be fought over water.

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5

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6

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Aral Sea

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2013-06-11Yoshihiro Shibuo, Forskardagarna 8

1989

[MODIS, 2003]

2003

The Deminishing Sea

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The Aral Sea in 2009

2013-06-11Yoshihiro Shibuo, Forskardagarna 9

MODIS,

May 2009

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Yellow River

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:100-km

050

100150

200250

1972 1982 1992

1990sFlow Termination

1990s1970s

(6)

1980s

(7) 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

521 536 16 83 60 74 122 136 226

(km) 100300 100660 131 303 278 308 683 579 700

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Freshwater looks Crisis

However,water-withdrawal (water-use) is about

4000 km

3

/yearwhich is only 10% of water availability =

about 40,000 km3/year.

Why water scarcity?

Why water crisis?I want to have your opinion.

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A hint: Water CycleOki and Kanae, 2006, Science

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Characteristics of water availability

Upper Chao PhrayaRiver in Thailand

streamflow

Evaporation: 65,500

Runoff

45,500(incl. GW recharge)

Precipitation111,000

Amount (km3/yr)

Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.

Oil

coal

Stock (not renewable) Flow (renewable)

water

Renewable resources

Uneven spatial distribution Uneven temporal distribution

Oki and Kanae, 2006, Science Fekete et al., 2002, Global Biogeochem. Cy.14

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Characteristics of water use

Total withdrawal3,800

Agricultural 2,660

Domestic

380

Water withdrawalkm3/yr

Industrial

770

3200

2400

1600

800

1900 1950 2000 2025

W

aterWithdrawal

World

Industrial

Domestic

Agricultural

2nd crop

Main crop

Rice crop calendarin the Chao PhrayaDelta in Thailand

Uneven spatial distribution Uneven temporal distribution

Increase of water use [km3/yr]

Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.

Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.

streamflow

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw15

Population of the world

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Uneven Water Availability (Monthly)

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Uneven water availability

(= daily river discharge)

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Answer to

why water scarcity in the world?

[As I already introduced],

spatio-temporal variability of water-availability and

spatio-temporal variability of water-use.

(Not the total amount, but the mismatch/imbalance)

Water should be a cheap resource.

Water is a resource, if it is available at a place where it

is required, at a time when required, with a quality

better than required, with sufficient/vast amount, and

at a low enough cost.

Another point to mention

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How to assess the imbalance between

water-availability and water-use?

(= water resources assessment)

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Hydrological

Model

Population

GDPLanduseIrrigation area

Country-basedStatistics ofwater use

W/Q

Water Stress/Scarcity

Global river map

W: waterwithdawal

Q: riverdischarge

(water availability)

How to compute water scarcity/stress

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(A conventional)

water scarcity/stress index

Several indices have been proposed toquantify water scarcity (water stress).

Water scarcity index = Mean annual water withdrawal (water use)

Mean annual runoff (water availability)

High water

stressOki and Kanae, 2006, Science 21

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Characteristics of water use

Total withdrawal3,800

Agricultural 2,660

Domestic

380

Water withdrawalkm3/yr

Industrial

770

3200

2400

1600

800

1900 1950 2000 2025

W

aterWithdrawal

World

Industrial

Domestic

Agricultural

2nd crop

Main crop

Rice crop calendarin the Chao PhrayaDelta in Thailand

Uneven spatial distribution Uneven temporal distribution

Increase of water use [km3/yr]

Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.

Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.

streamflow

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw22

Population of the world

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World Food Production and Supply

1.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.22.32.42.5

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Raototh1

Vau

Population-Estimates

Agricultural Area

Irrigated Area

Area Harv: Cereals, Total

Yield: Cereals, Total

Production: Cereals, TotalCal/Cap/Day

irrigated land,which is 16%

of cropland,

produces 40%

of crops

(based on FAOSTAT & AQUASTAT)

Food, Population, and Water

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Future Projection of water withdrawal

(based on IPCC SRES scenarios)

26153188

3824

73186634

5283

101468891

6202

52345938

5717 6753

63235167

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Withdrawal(km

3/y)

A1bA2B1B2

(Shen et al.,Hydro. Sci. J., 2008)

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Virtual Water

Professor John Anthony Allan from Kings

College London and the School of Oriental and

African Studies has been named the 2008

Stockholm Water Prize Laureate. Professor Allan

pioneered the development of key concepts inthe understanding and communication of water

issues and how they are linked to agriculture,

climate change, economics and politics.

People do not only consume water when they

drink it or take a shower. In 1993, Professor Allan,71, strikingly demonstrated this by introducing

the virtual water concept, which measures how

water is embedded in the production and trade of

food and consumer products.

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The Question on VWT

Is Virtual Water Trade bad/guilty

or good/encouraged?

26

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Virtual Waterrefers to the water used

in the production of a good or service,

in the context of trade.(wikipedia)

28

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Required Water for Fast Food

Hamburger

SandwichBuckwheat

noodle

Pasta

(Udon)

Beef

Bowl

Regular

JY280

710kcal

2 regular

Small Fries

JY268

745kcal

With Egg

JY300

377kcal

Plain

JY290

341kcal

Teriyaki Burger

Regular Fries

JY430

911kcal

530L2020L

120L750L

Chicken

Burger

(M. Sato, 2003, Thesis, The Univ. of Tokyo.)

1890L

Which is the largest? Which is the smallest?

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49

389

89

14

22

13

25

33

Japanese Water for Irrigation59 billionTotal Import64 billion m3

Total Imported VW of Japanm3/

145

121

9424

20

140

3625 22

13

3

3

Maize

Bean

Wheat

Beef

Pork

Rice

Figure Unit = 0.1 billion

(m3/year)

Etc

U it R i t f W t

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3,600

Unit Water Requirement of Major Crops

(m3/t)

2,600 2,5002,000 1,900

(based on crop yield in Japan

FAOSTAT mean 1996-2000)

Unit Requirement of Water

--Crops--

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5,9004,100

3,200

20,600

4,500

3,000

14,400

0 5 ,0 0 0 1 0 ,0 0 0 1 5 ,0 0 0 2 0 ,0 0 0 2 5 ,0 0 0

(m3/t)

Unit Water Requirement

Meat

WholeBeef

WholePork

Pork

Beef

Poultry

Whole

PoultryEgg

Unit Water Requirement of Major Meat

(based on crop yield and the way of raising in Japan)

560 m3/t for milk

d l lif f

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Model life of a cow

Dairy Cow Beef Cattle

Vi t ll R i d W t T d b t R i

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Caribbean

Virtually Required Water Trade between Regionsin 2000 (cereals only)

NorthAmerica

Central

America

SouthAmerica

West

Africa

Oceania

East &

South East Asia

South

Asia

USSR

North WestAfrica

WesternEurope

Middle

East

1~5 5~10 10~15 15~20 20~30 30~50 50