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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 1

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    Effects of Slovakias Entry to EU (Including Adoption of Euro) on Slovakias Car Industry

    Zdenka P. Bartscht

    Eastern Michigan University

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 2

    Abstract

    This research focuses on Slovakia, a fast developing Eastern European country, and a

    current member of the European Union. In recent years Slovakia has become a major attraction

    for foreign direct investment, in particular in the car manufacturing industry. It is important to

    understand the countrys background, as well as its economic progress in order to be able to see

    the countrys future potential. This research is set to prove a positive correlation between

    Slovakias entry in the EU (as well as adoption of the common currency Euro) on the car

    manufacturing industry. The methods used to support this research include a literature review, as

    well as the historical and financial analysis of the three major car manufacturers in the country:

    Volkswagen Slovakia a.s., Kia Motors Slovakia, and PSA Peugeot Citron. The analysis of the

    literature written on the subject, as well as the data collected during the research indicate that

    there is a positive relationship between Slovakias entry to the EU and the amount of FDI;

    therefore there is a positive correlation between the entry to EU and the car manufacturing

    industry. The adoption of the common currency cant be positively linked to the amount of FDI

    in the car industry due to financial crises in Europe during the year following the adoption of the

    currency. Slovakia definitely remains on the radar of future investors due to its stable political

    and legal environment, attractive geographic location, and its continuous economic growth.

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 3

    Introduction

    Slovakia, also known as a part of former Czechoslovakia is a very unique country. In the

    last two decades the country had undergone major political and social changes that have a

    significant impact on the countrys economy. In 1989, after the fall of the communist regime,

    then Czechoslovakia, had gone from being a communist dictatorship to parliamentary

    democracy. This change had flung the doors open for tourism, as well as an influx of new ideas,

    a precursor of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).Shortly after; in 1993 Slovakia split from Czech

    Republic and became an independent country. In 2004 Slovakia continued its progression to a

    free market economy by joining the EU, followed by the adoption of the common currency

    (Euro) in January 2009. Besides political stability, Moodys describes Slovakia as a country with

    Low wages, high educational attainment and close proximity to core Europe have made the

    country an attractive focus for foreign direct investment (Slovakia, Moodys). As it can be

    seen on the map below, Slovakias geographical location can be seen as attractive to the

    investors interested in a fast market expansion.

    Hostels.net

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 4

    One of the major factors that make Slovakia attractive to FDI is the fact that Slovakia has

    one of the fastest growing economies of the newly admitted EC countries. The graph below

    shows real GDP growth rate in % change from previous year. Between 2008 and 2009 Slovakia

    felt the aftershocks of the worldwide recession which resulted in reduced growth as well as

    negative growth in 2009. In 2010 Slovakias growth rate had recovered from - 4.9 % in 2009 to

    4.2% (Real GDP Growth Rate, Eurostat). Slovakias fast recovery can be seen as a sign of its

    economic strength.

    Real GDP Growth Rate (2003 2010)

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    2003 2005 2007 2009

    GDP%

    *Eurostat

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 5

    GDP 1995-2010

    0

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    50,000

    60,000

    70,000

    1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

    GDPinmillions

    EU

    *Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic (in million EUR)

    The statistical office of the Slovak Republic published revised GDP data for 1995-2009,

    and a preliminary data for 2010 at current prices. The graph shows a 9.2 % increase in GDP

    between 2004 and 2005, this change could be a result of Slovakia joining the EU in 2004. Once

    again the results of the 2008 recession can be seen in decline in Slovakias GDP in 2009

    (Revised GDP, Statistical Office of Slovak Republic).

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    GDP per Capita

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

    GDPperCapita

    *Eurostat (EU-27) = 100

    According to Eurostat, Slovakias GDP per capita has been continuously increasing,

    reaching its highest level of 74 in 2010. Eurostat measures the GDP per capita on a 100 point

    scale; numbers above 100 indicate GDP per capita higher than the GDP of the 27 countries of

    EU (GDP per Capita, Eurostat).

    Another significant economic factor that makes Slovakia worth doing business with is its

    tax system. Slovakia has 19% flat tax for corporations and individuals (Slovakia, CIA), this

    simple tax makes doing business in Slovakia easier, taking out maneuvering between different

    taxes codes for different industries. Besides taxes, Slovakias pro-business policies and

    governmental incentives are a major attraction to any investor.

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    This research concentrates on Slovakias booming car industry. According to CIA World

    Fact Book, vehicles account for 21% of Slovakias total exports (Slovakia, CIA). An article

    from Industry Week states that Slovakia is expected to produce 630,000 by the end of 2011. In

    2012 and the beginning of 2013 production is expected to reach between 800,000 and 900,000

    cars (Slovakia, worlds leading per-capita car maker, Agence France-Presse). The above

    mentioned production indicators represent the production estimates of the three automakers:

    Volkswagen, PSA Peugeot Citron and Kia Motors.

    The focus of my research are the effects of Slovakias entry to EU (including the change

    of currency), on the car industry in Slovakia. I am planning to compare Slovakias car industry

    prior to Slovakias admission to EU, as well as observe any changes related to Slovakias

    adoption of the new currency (Euro) and its effects on the car manufacturing. I will also review

    each car makers production records, including employment levels and financial records in order

    to better understand the progress in the industry as whole.

    Literature Review

    The boom of the car manufacturing in Central and Eastern Europe has been a topic of

    numerous studies. Some of the researchers consider FDI the major driving factor of the car

    industry; others draw conclusions based on the privatization and government incentives as well

    as geographically strategic location of the host countries. The effects of Slovakias entry to EU

    and its currency change on the car industry have not been really explored and it would be

    interesting to see if a positive correlation can be supported.

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 8

    According to Radosevic and Rozeik (2005) the restructuring of Central and Eastern

    European car manufacturing has been entirely foreign led. Both Czech Republic and Slovakia

    were able to attract large amounts of FDI among other factors by the quality of governmental

    support. According to the authors; in Slovakia, the program for development automotive industry

    was a result of the enforcement of governments resolution from 1998. Slovakian government

    had played an important role in attracting and retaining foreign investment. It is interesting that

    Radosevic and Rozeik (2005) also argue that the productivity in Slovakia and Hungary is 2 times

    above the manufacturing average, in comparison to the countries with no FDI present (Bulgaria,

    Latvia, and Lithuania). Radosevic and Rozenik touch in their conclusion briefly upon the fact

    that the internationalization in the countries mentioned above had been led through the

    expansions and extensions, which could be a positive result of their entry into the EU.

    The article Financial Setting for FDI Inflows into the Czech Republic and Slovakia,

    published by Jankovic and Yatrakis (2011) focuses on the relationship between the countrys risk

    ratings, financial market variables, expected returns in the region and the FDI (Jankovic, et.al,

    2011). Jankovics and Yatrakis research does not support the positive relationship between

    Slovakias entry to EU and the countrys car industry.

    The article: Automotive industry in the Slovak Republic: Recent Developments and

    Impact on Growth analyses the positive environment for the entry of FDI, as well as concrete

    examples of two of the largest investors in automotive industry in Slovakia: PSA Peugeot and

    KIA (Jakubiak, et al., 2008). Among other important factors, the authors conclude:

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    Improved prospects for EU accession at the turn of the century, together with decisive progress

    in aligning domestic legislation with the acquis, helped anchor investor expectations about

    economic policy and future development.

    The authors also state the importance of other factors (some of them share similarities with

    Radosevic and Rozeik above) contributing to Slovakias attractiveness to FDI, including political

    and legal reforms, the structure and level of education, Slovakias geographical proximity to

    other EU markets, infrastructure, as well as large governmental incentives (Jakubiak et al.,

    2008). This article is a good source of information about the current automotive industry in

    Slovakia. The authors, among others, found a positive correlation between Slovakias to EU and

    the inflow of FDI investment.

    An article that supports this research topic was published in 2006 by the National Bank of

    Slovakia. The article, Long Term Benefits of Euro Adoption in Slovakia. states that the

    adoption of Euro would decrease two major factors that would make mutual trade cheaper; it will

    lower the transaction cost, and it will lead to stabilization of exchange rate (Solani & Tirpak,

    2006). Based on this information one can conclude that the FDI levels would raise since the cost

    of doing business would be lower and the currency will be more stable. Solani & Tirpaks

    theory is supported by the fact that there has been two car manufacturers (since the countrys

    entry in EU) that had decided to invest in Slovakia.

    Vintrov (2006) in her research states that Slovak (as well as Czech) entry to EU had

    made both countries more attractive for FDI and had accelerated the economic growth in each

    country (Vintrov, 2009). GDP growth in Slovakia in 2000 to 2003 rose from 3.6 to 7.5%, and in

    the year 2007 up to 10%. Slovakia is a member of the Visegrad 4, which consist of Czech

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 10

    Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary. According to Vintrov , Slovakias GDP growth

    within the V4 was the fastest in the last 15 years (Vintrov, 2009). Once again, the research

    strongly suggests that the entry to EU have had a positive impact on FDI, which can be directly

    linked to the increase in the investments in automotive industry.

    The article International outsourcing over the business cycle: some intuition for

    Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, analyses the effects of the economic crises on the

    sourcing practices of multinational companies, in this case, the author studies the impact of the

    crises in Germany (and EU) on businesses in Slovakia and Czech Republic (Levasseur, 2010).

    Levasseur concludes that the asymmetry in the international outsourcing seems to be at work

    across several different dimensionsacross the states of the economy, across the sectors and

    across the countries. The results vary for both Czech Republic and Slovakia based on their car

    manufacturing history, even based on the nationality of the foreign investors (different decision

    making practices). This article does not directly support the research topic since it studies the

    reactivity of Slovakias manufacturing to negative economic changes in Germany/EU, on the

    other hand, the article can be useful for a foreign investor in choosing one country over the other

    based on their crises management.

    Car Manufacturing in Slovakia and Czech Republic has a long tradition, especially in

    Czech Republic, where the brand koda recently celebrated its 100 years anniversary (Tiusanen,

    2006). According to Tisuanen, the car manufacturing in Czech Republic (mostly because of its

    car manufacturing history) was way ahead of Slovakia until 1991 when Volkswagen (as a first

    major investor) acquired a major part (30%) in Bratislavas Automobile Plant BAZ, a major

    supplier of Skoda during the communist period (Tiusanen, 2006). One can say that this was a

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 11

    major turning point in Slovakias car manufacturing. This article also points out the fact that the

    BAZ acquisition had major impact on the total amount of automotive supplies which increased

    from $ .5bilion in 1997 to $2.5 billion in 2003 (Tiusanen, 2006). Tisuanens research provides

    relevant information regarding the beginning of the car manufacturing in Slovakia.

    Research in the journal of Applied Economic addresses the topic of the employee

    management in Slovakia and Bulgaria. The author, Hideki Takei analyses surveys of Slovak and

    Bulgarian employees and their responses to different managerial styles and on job

    responsibilities and approaches. I found interesting that 90% Slovakian employees value the

    following factors the most: fairness and clear structure and rules, frequent and 2-way

    communication, disclosure, transparency, and information sharing (Takei, 2011). Even though

    the on job communication and preferences slightly vary between the two cultures, this

    information can be very useful to foreign investors trying to establish production in Slovakia. It

    would be interesting to see if the Slovakian work approach and preferences had changed after the

    establishment of foreign owned enterprises.

    Another research supporting Slovakias position as a major FDI attraction is a

    comparison of Slovenias versus Slovakias FDI contributions as examined by Lokar and

    Bajzikova in World Transition Economy Research in 2008. Both authors compare cultural and

    economic background of both countries and their levels of FDI. Slovakia appears as the front

    runner with its FDI of $19.08 billion, in compare with Slovenias $7.46 billion in 2006; the

    authors suggest that Slovakia in compare with Slovenia took a more aggressive approach

    towards the restructuring of its own industry, while Slovenia (economically more developed after

    the fall of communism) took a more careful approach in encouraging the FDI (Lokar, Bajzikova

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 12

    2008). This research analyses the approaches to FDI in two similar Eastern European countries,

    Slovakia and Slovenia; at the same time, this article supports multiple research papers written on

    this topic including Slovakias government involvement in attracting relatively large amounts of

    FDI.

    Horvath and Rusnaks article (2009) focuses on the analysis of foreign shocks on a small

    open economy of Slovakia. The authors use numerous statistical analyses to determine the

    reaction of Slovakias economy to the outside shocks. According to Horvath and Rusnak, foreign

    shocks explain the fluctuation of the Slovak price level; in fact authors conclude that external

    shocks explain nearly 80% of the variation in the aggregate Slovak price level in long run

    (Horvath, et al. 2009). This article does not directly support this research, but the effect of the

    outside shocks can be seen by looking at Slovakias GDP following the recession of 2008-2009.

    By analyzing the articles related to this research, one can conclude that there seem to be a

    positive correlation between Slovakias entry to the EU and the increase in FDI, consequently

    resulting in an increase in FDI in automotive industry. Almost every article analyses the

    importance of FDI on Slovak economy as a whole. So far, there is not enough evidence (due to

    lack of information) to show a positive impact of adoption of Euro on car manufacturing as a

    whole.

    Volkswagen Slovakia a.s.

    According to Volkswagens website, Volkswagen Slovakia was founded in 1991 as a joint

    venture between Volkswagen AG and joint-stock Car Company in Bratislava (History,

    Volkswagen).

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 13

    *Volkswagen Slovakia a.s.

    Volkswagen is the 1st

    FDI investor in the car manufacturing in Slovakia. Since 1991, the

    company had produced 2, 5 million vehicles, 5 million gear boxes and over 200 million car

    components for VW, Audi, koda and SEAT brands (News, Volkswagen). In compare with

    Peugeot and KIA, Volkswagen is a well-established company that has been in Slovakia for 21

    years. Unfortunately, the company does not have a public archive of annual statements

    documenting its progress over the years; therefore observation of the effects of the Euro adoption

    on the company cant be made. According to Volkswagens annual statement from 2010,

    Volkswagen employs 7000 people, which equals to the employment of KIA and Peugeot

    combined. Currently Peugeot is planning on investing 308 million EUR to expand its capacity to

    400,000 and increase employment by 1500 people (Numbers & Facts, Volkswagen).

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 14

    Analysis of Volkswagens Financial Statements 2009 & 2010

    2009 2010Net Income 75 million EUR

    Employment 6,500 7,000

    Production 106,000 144,510 (cars)379,000 (gearboxes)

    31, 500,000(components)

    *Annual Statement Volkswagen 2010

    PSA Peugeot Citron

    January 15, 2003 commemorate the start of Peugeots 700 million euro investment in Slovakia

    (Peugeot, 2005). According to Peugeots press kit, Slovakia was selected mostly because of its

    geographical location, great infrastructure and proximity to EU member states, growing

    economy, and not at last, Peugeots expending market share in the region (Peugeot, 2005).

    Since Peugeot made its decision to invest prior to Slovakias official entry to EU, one can argue

    that Slovakias upcoming entry to EU could have a positive impact on Peugeots decision.

    *psa-slovakia.sk

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 15

    Analysis of Peugeots Financial Statements

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Net Income n/a 9,788, 000SKK

    7, 697,000SKK

    59, 716*EUR

    49,475*EUR

    Employment n/a 3,134 3,263 3,149 2,900

    Production(cars per

    year)

    51,719 177,586 186,397 203,732 186,150

    SKK Slovak Koruna, at the time of conversion to Euro (January 1

    st

    2009) 30, 1260 SKK = 1 Euro

    * Annual statements, PSA Peugeot Citron

    * In millions Euro

    Based on Peugeots annual statements between 2006 and 2010, Peugeot has been effected by the

    financial crises as well, in compare with Kia, Peugeot felt the crises aftershocks the worst in

    2010. Based on Peugeots annual statement from 2009, Peugeot considered the adoption of Euro

    in Slovakia to be a positive event; company believed that adoption of Euro would increase

    Peugeots advantage while purchasing materials in EU countries, as well as doing business with

    non-EU countries. (Peugeot, 2009). Other than companys brief note of the expected impact of

    Euro, I cant conclude that the adoption of Euro had a measurable positive impact on PSA

    Peugeot Citroen in Slovakia.

    KIA Motors Slovakia

    On March 18th, 2004, the chairman of the Hyundai-Kia Automotive Group Mong-Koo

    Chung and Slovak Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda signed the document starting the

    construction of KIAs manufacturing plant in Slovakia (KIA Annual Report, 2006). Since then,

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 16

    KIA had continuously expanded their production towards their goal, a full capacity production

    (300,000 cars per year). Besides car manufacturing, KIA also produces engines for its partner

    company Hyundai Motor in Czech Republic.

    *Kia-World.net

    Kias 1 billion euro investment (Factory Slovakia, KIA) in Slovakia, rather than in

    Poland was influenced by numerous factors. Many argue that the biggest factor might have been

    the amount of incentives that Slovakia offered. According to Beata Balogova (Slovak Spectator),

    Slovak government had offered KIA incentives worth of 218 million euro (Balogova, 2004).

    The amount of incentives was significant, but Slovakias location, its membership in EU and

    steady growth might also swing the vote.

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 17

    Analysis of Kias Financial Statements

    *SKK Slovak Koruna, at the time of conversion to Euro (January 1st 2009) 30, 1260 SKK = 1 Euro

    * Annual statements, Kia Motor Slovakia

    *In millions Euro

    Based on the annual statements published between 2005 and 2010, KIA had continuously

    expanded its car production, except 2009 when the company suffered from the aftershocks of the

    financial crises. Since financial crises and the adoption of Euro were going hand in hand, it is

    impossible to show a positive correlation between Slovakias adoption of EURO and Kias

    financial performance.

    Conclusion

    Slovakias car manufacturing is slowly recovering from the aftershocks of the worlds

    financial crises of 2008-2009. Each of the car manufactures (Volkswagens financial data for

    2008 were not available) has been affected by the decrease in demand for cars, as well as the

    financial turmoil of 2008-2009. Since Volkswagen has been in Slovakia since 1991 one can

    safely say that the company did not based their investment decisions on Slovakias entry to EU.

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Net Income(SKK, EU)*after taxes

    -133,519SKK

    -310,778SKK

    888,308SKK

    1, 504, 574SKK

    27,300EUR*

    25,300*EUR

    42,920*EUR

    Employment n/a 1,600 2,700 2,700 2,800 2,963

    Production(cars per

    year)

    n/a 4,715(start of

    production)

    145,097 201,507 150,020cars

    243,973engines

    229,505cars

    859,699engines

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    EFFECTS OF SLOVAKIAS ENTRY TO EU ON ITS CAR INDUSTRY 18

    Kia and Peugeot had signed investment agreements with Slovak officials shortly before its entry

    to EU. Slovakia had officially joined EU on May 4

    th

    , 2004 (Joining the EU,

    SlovakRepublic.org). Based on the previous research conducted on FDI, one can say that

    Slovakias admission to EU had a positive impact on Slovakias reputation of a fast growing

    economy with a pro-business legislature, skilled labor and geographically advantageous location.

    The analysis of the annual statements of both companies did not provided answers to the

    stated research questions. This is due to the fact that the first few years after the manufacturing

    facilities were constructed, both companies experienced annual losses which were due to

    imbalance of revenues (small production output) and expenses (investment). The main reason

    why the results of annual reports cant be used for the purpose of this research is the fact that the

    positive effects of the Euro adoption (January 1st 2009) cant be measured against the negative

    effects of worlds financial crises on the car manufacturing industry as a whole. Overall we can

    conclude that Slovakias entry to EU had a somewhat positive effect on the car manufacturing in

    Slovakia, while the adoption of Euro and its effect on the car manufacturing cant be measured

    due to negative impact of the financial crises on the car manufacturing as whole.

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