Effects of possible climatic change on choices of species ... · NordGen conference: Northern...

COUNTY GOVERNOR OF HEDMARK Department of Agriculture and Forestry

NordGen conference: Northern forests in a changing climate, Hallormsstaður/Eastern Iceland, 17.-18.9.2013

Effects of possible climatic change on choices of species and provenances for forestry in Norway

Torfinn Kringlebotn County Forestry Officer, County Governor of Hedmark





Forestry in Norway

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Possible climatic changes

Ministy of the Environment, report “Climate in Norway 2100”.

http://www.regjeringen.no/nb/dep/md/kampanjer/klimatilpasning-norge/bibliotek/forskning/endelig-versjon-av-klima-i-norge-2100-li.html?id=578583



Length of the growing season

Normal period 1961-1990

Changes in the length of the growing season up to 2100 compared to 1961-1990 for HA2 (left) and HB2 (right) projections. Values are the number of days (Hanssen-Bauer et al., 2009).

Increase of 1-2 months in

the main forest areas



Expected effects on forest

• The effects on forests of climate change will be significant, but with a large degree of variation

• The main trends are increased disturbances, changes in the types of ecosystems, but also increased productivity (for example in Northern Europe and Norway)

• Modelling of the annual/seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation are not enough to predict the effects of climate change on forest

• Extreme events such as droughts, storms, diseases etc are of great importance



Consequences

• Climate-related forest damage



Will this effect the choice?

• The facts should lead to changes in forestry



Fokus for Forestry • The critical phase in a stands life has up until now been the

1-10 years after regeneration – Pine weevil – Weeds and competition – Frost etc. – That is pretty easy to adapt for; or at least we know

the scenarios and methods in theory

• If temperature increase by 3-5 degrees, the critical phase

might be different – and later in the stands life – Drought stress – Maladapted phenology – Lammas shoots



Effects of possible climatic change on choices

How should we adapt forest management trends in possible climate change? (Free by Marcus Lindner and Bolte et. Al.)

Preservation "no change to the current structure" (preservative) • Stability strived by forest management

Increasing risk for loss of variation / resources

Active adaptation "look ahead" (integrative) • Introduction of new species, provenances, breeding • Shorter rotation times, stand structure etc • Forest health measures etc

Great effort and high costs

Passive adaptation "do nothing“ • No active measures • Adaptation through natural succession • For forests of low economic importance

No action with better cost / benefit

How should we adapt forest management trends in possible climate change? (Free by Marcus Lindner and Bolte et. Al.)

Preservation "no change to the current structure" (preservative) • Stability strived by forest management

Increasing risk for loss of variation / resources

Active adaptation "look ahead" (integrative) • Introduction of new species, provenances, breeding • Shorter rotation times, stand structure etc • Forest health measures etc

Great effort and high costs

Passive adaptation "do nothing“ • No active measures • Adaptation through natural succession • For forests of low economic importance

No action with better cost / benefit



Possible ways to adaptation

1. Change of tree species

2. Provenance transfer from south

3. Tree breeding – selection for «future» phenology

4. More deliberate use of the knowledge we have of the epigenetic effects

5. Denser plantations – allow some climatic selection to occur

6. Mixed plantations - mix species and/or provenances



Change of tree species

• From spruce to beech and oak (or pine)

– Drought stress

• From pine to spruce

– More suitable

• From birch to spruce

– New forest area

• New «foreign» species

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Choices of species

Think Forest – Marcus Lindner 2013



Choices of species

• Quo vadis Quercus?

Dahl et al. 1986, Holten 1990, Kringlebotn, Risdal, Næss 2004



New forest area

1940 1990 2013 800 masl (moh) birch planting What now? No trees spruce



Choice of provenances • Good knowledge of the effects of movement and use of provenances

essential for correct choice • Climate change is happening fast - natural selection and spreading is by

comparison slow processes • Obstacles/barriers for natural spread is an argument for finding suitable

provenances / species outside Norway – Probably not necessary for species with distinct epigenetic memory (spruce)

• A lot of knowledge about the trees growth rhythm (as seedlings) • We know little about if the trees increasingly acclimate according to

temperature • Norwegian Forest Seed Centre is careful to recommend major changes to

the use of provenances – Insufficient knowledge of such causal to lammas shots

• Materials with a later bud flush is positive – Some seed lots from “2006 vintage” has these qualities



Climatic adaptation – phenology

Regulation of

bud flush:

temperature

Regulation of growth

cessation: photoperiod

(night length) and

temperature



1981-1998: Earlier spring

Høgda et al. 2001, in Presterud and Seip 2003



Tree breeding – selection for «future» phenology

Goals for the breeding:

• Growth

• Quality

• Climate adaptation – knowledge-based selection of materials (flexibility) and genotypic plasticity

• CO2 binding



Bud flush – damages and growth

Start av skuddstrekning

25 30 35 40 45

Hø

yd

e (

cm

)165

180

195

210

225

240

255

Mai Juni

r = 0.77

Start av skuddstrekning

25 30 35 40 45

Træ

r m

ed

skad

er

(%)

10

15

20

25

30

35

Mai Juni

r = -0.83



Growth start (day from 1. april)

Climate adaptation via genetic selection

• Damage by spring frost, Trysil 1990

Data fra Skrøppa, Steffenrem et al. in prep.

Pro

po

tio

n t

rees

wit

h d

amag

e

1. june Stange norske foreldre Stange øst-eur. foreldre



Epigenetics – rapid natural adaptation Ex. budset in provenances of P. abies

Day number from 1. april

Seed year:

Pro

p. p

lan

ts in

bu

d

L1

1.Sep

Data from Steffenrem unpbl.



Clinal variation + temperature seed year

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

500 700 900 1100 1300 1500

Pro

p b

ud

set

13

.se

pt

firs

t ye

ar

Average Tsum>5oC for origin based on latitude and elevation (Morén and Perttu 1994)

1973

1983

1992

1998

2006



Budflush after 3 years in field

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

N64.1 N64.19 N63.8 N63.81 N64.08 N64.48 N64.47 N63.71 N64.52 N63.62

1970 1989 2006 2006 2006 2006 1970 2006 1970 2006

L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L2 L2 N1 N1

Bu

d f

lush

sco

re (

Kru

tzsc

h)

A A B AB AB B A B A A

Data from Steffenrem unpbl.



Conclusion • Det er beheftet en stor grad av usikkerhet ved klimaendringene

• Likefullt må vi forvente endringer som kommer til å påvirke de valgene vi gjør i skogbehandlingen

• Klimaendringene kan også bety økt produktivitet, men forutsetter utvikling og bruk av kunnskap

• Skogbrukerens utfordring er å velge rett proveniens/treslag for dagens utfordringer, men med tilfredsstillende stabilitet for hele omløpstiden

• For liten kunnskap om i hvilken grad trærnes i voksen alder ”akklimatiseres”

• Ved en usikker fremtid kan spredning av risiko være en fornuftig strategi • Tilstrekkelig plantetall er også et vesentlig moment her

• Ny forskning, utnyttelse av eksisterende kunnskap om proveniensvalg og foredling blir enda viktigere for et fortsatt økonomisk skogbruk



Thanks to….

Øyvind M Edvardsen, The Norwegian Forest Seed Center &

Arne Steffenrem, The Norwegian Forest Seed Center/Norwegian Forest and Landscape Institute



Thanks for your attention…



St. meld 33 Klimatilpasning i Norge

Effects of possible climatic change on choices of species ... · NordGen conference: Northern...

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