Effects of climate change on the distribution of plant species · annual solar radiation mean April...
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Page 1 www.ufz.de/klimawandel-flora/ Effects of climate change on the distribution of plant species Sven Pompe 1 , Franz Badeck 2 , Jan Hanspach 1 , Stefan Klotz 1 & Ingolf Kühn 1* 1) Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Dept. Community Ecology 2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) *) Email: [email protected]
Transcript of Effects of climate change on the distribution of plant species · annual solar radiation mean April...
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www.ufz.de/klimawandel-flora/
Effects of climate change on the distribution of plant species
Sven Pompe1, Franz Badeck2, Jan Hanspach1, Stefan Klotz1 & Ingolf Kühn1*
1) Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Dept. Community Ecology2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)*) Email: [email protected]
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Possible impacts of climate change on the flora
Phenologische changesGenetic adaptationsChange of biotic interactions(e.g. competition, pollination, herbivory, …)Change of distribution and dispersal patternsChange in abundance, regional loss
Impacts on society through altered ecosystem servicesNew conservation strategies, risk management
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(Thuiller et al., Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 2005)
Impacts on European plant species richness
Mean species loss in Europe: 27–42%
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25 year of monitoring in Central German dry grasslands
Matesanz, Brooker, Valladares, Klotz, Journal of Vegetation Science 2008
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mean April temperature (°C)
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April-May precipitation (mm)
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Matesanz, Brooker, Valladares, Klotz, Journal of Vegetation Science 2008
Obeserved changes in the vegetation of Central German dry grasslands
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Phenological changes in plants
Badeck et al. 2004, New Phytologist 162 (2), 295-309.
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Methodology
Model calibrationRisk analysisModelling with regional climate change scenarios
Validation
Species selection
European rangeLand cover
climate
soil
Climate data from Badeck, Pompe, Kühn, Glauer, 2008, Naturschutz & Landschaftspflege 40(10), 343-345
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Why European distribution data
Range loss
Europe Germany
Beech (Fagus sylvatica), Floraweb
Beech (Fagus sylvatica), Atlas Florae Europaeae
Overestimation of range loss
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Soil and land cover increases model fit
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
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Kappa Klima-Modelle
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Model fit, climate only models
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Pompe, Badeck, Hanspach, Klotz, Thuiller & Kühn, 2008, Biology Letters 4, 564–567
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Projections for selected species, +4°-scenario
Range changes,
Based on Daten from Pompe, Kühn et al., BfN final report
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Caltha palustris (marsh merrigold)
+ 2° + 3° + 4° www.floraweb.de
Projections for selected scenarios
Based on Daten from Pompe, Kühn et al., BfN final report
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Assumptions on dispersal ability
No dispersal kernel available for most speciesUnknown influence of climate change on dispersal kernelsTwo extreme assumptions:1. Full dispersal2. No dispersal
Two Hypothesis:1. Human traffic facilitates dispersal2. Fragmentation inhibits dispersal
No. 1 is probably relevant for common speciesNo. 2 is probably relevant for rare and specialist species
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Changes in species richness in Germany (per grid cell)
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Full dispersal No dispersal
+ 2°C+ 3°C+ 4°C
Pompe, Badeck, Hanspach, Klotz, Thuiller & Kühn, 2008, Biology Letters 4, 564–567
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Species gain and lossLosses+ 2°: 15 ± 5%+ 3°: 20 ± 6%+ 4°: 35 ± 10%
Gains+ 2°: 14 ± 6%+ 3°: 17 ± 7%+ 4°: 21 ± 8%
2°C 3°C 4°C
Pompe, Badeck, Hanspach, Klotz, Thuiller & Kühn, 2008, Biology Letters 4, 564–567
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Impact of climate change on the flora
Species loss [%] Species gain [%] Species turnover [%]
Modelled scenario 2080, +4°Cn= 845 species2995 grid cells (FLORKART).
Pompe, Badeck, Hanspach, Klotz, Thuiller & Kühn, 2008, Biology Letters 4, 564–567
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Impacts on „red list species“ in Germany
+ 2° + 3° + 4°red-list species (gey) are much more impacted
than not listed species (white)
Species loss
Using data from:Pompe, Berger, Walther, Badeck, Hanspach, Sattler, Klotz, Kühn, Natur & Landschaft 1/2009
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+ 2° + 3° + 4°
Species turnover in Germany until 2080
Pompe, Badeck, Hanspach, Klotz, Thuiller & Kühn, 2008, Biology Letters 4, 564–567
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© Walter Schön
© Thomas Muer
Biological interactions and climate change
• Butterfly Boloria titania (Titania‘sfritillary) feeds monophagously as larvae on Bistorta officinalis(Adderwort)
Niche spaces of Boloria titania and Polygonum bistorta show today only small areas of overlap.
Current niche spaces of Boloria titaniaand Ploygonum bistorta
P. bistortaB. titaniaOverlap
Two separate ecological nichemodels for the butterfly and itshost plant based on climate, land use and soil characteristics.AUC‘s > 0.93
Schweiger, Settele, Kudrna, Klotz, Kühn, Ecology, in press
Future climate change leads to reduction and fragmentation of original distribution and a shift of climate space to the north.
Projected changes in the host plant Ploygonum bistortafor 2080
Remaining niche spaceNew niche space
Lost niche space
SEDG GRAS
Schweiger, Settele, Kudrna, Klotz, Kühn, Ecology, in press
Projected changes in niche space of Boloria titania and Ploygonum bistorta for 2080
SEDG
GRAS
SEDG
GRAS
P. bistortaB. titaniaOverlap
Niche space of B. titaniawould increase
But mismatch of both niche spaces increases, too
Serious decrease of overlap in the butterfly’s original distribution (Alps and Baltic States).
Potentially new areas in the north could only be colonised in the unlikely case of high dispersal ability of P. bistorta.
Climate change candisrupt trophic interactions.
Schweiger, Settele, Kudrna, Klotz, Kühn, Ecology, in press
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• Species respond idiosyncratically• no migrating habitats or communities!• Moderate climate change (2°C)
– 60% of the species lose more range than they gain.– 7% of the species lose >2/3 of their range.
• Strong climate change(4°C)– 68 % of the species lose more range than they gain.– 20% of the species lose >2/3 of their range.
• Trees and dwarfs shrub, insect pollinated species and species with high moisture requirements are at high risk.
• Biological interactions have substantial influence on species‘ sensitivity to climate change.
Summary
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Ackowledgements
Thank you for your attention!
Federal Agency for Natur Conservation, Projects„Modellierung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Flora„ (FKZ 805 81 001) „Schutzgebiete Deutschlands im Klimawandel – Risiken und Handlungsoptionen“ (FKZ 806 82 270 - K1)
Network Phytodiversity in Germany for coordinating mappingand providing data,
Thousands of volunteers for floristic field work, provided via FLORKART/FLORAWEBEU-Projects ALARM: Assessing LArge-scale environmental
risks for biodiversity with tested methodswww.alarmproject.net, for providing scenarios
& MACIS: Minimization of and Adaptation to Climate changeImpacts on biodiverSity www.macis-project.net
www.ufz.de/klimawandel-flora/
