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Coming to an office near you

The effect of today’s technology on tomorrow’s

 jobs will be immense—and no country is readyfor it

Jan 18th 2014 | From the print edition 

INNOVATION, the elixir of progre, ha al!a" #ot people their $o%& In the Ind'trial (e)ol'tionartian !ea)er *tetator+ !ere !ept aide %" the me#hani#al loom *ra%oi de te't+& O)er the pat -0"ear the digital re)ol'tion ha dipla#ed man" of the mid./ill $o% that 'nderpinned *'tinea+ 20th.#ent'r" middle.#la life& T"pit, ti#/et agent, %an/ teller *#aier %an#ar+ and man" prod'#tion.line

 $o% ha)e %een dipened !ith, $'t a the !ea)er !ere&

For thoe, in#l'ding thi ne!paper, !ho %elie)e that te#hnologi#al progre ha made the !orld a %etter pla#e, '#h #h'rn *p'ma+ i a nat'ral part of riing properit"& Altho'gh inno)ation /ill ome $o%, it #reate ne! and %etter one, a a more prod'#ti)e o#iet" %e#ome ri#her and it !ealthier inha%itant demand more good and er)i#e& A h'ndred "ear ago one in three Ameri#an !or/er !aemplo"ed on a farm& Toda" le than 2 of them prod'#e far more food& The million freed from theland !ere not #onigned to $o%lene, %'t fo'nd %etter.paid !or/ a the e#onom" gre! moreophiti#ated& Toda" the pool of e#retarie ha hr'n/, %'t there are e)er more #omp'ter programmerand !e% deigner&

(emem%er Iron%ridge

Optimim remain the right tarting.point, %'t for !or/er the dilo#ating *deprine+ effe#t of te#hnolog" ma" ma/e themel)e e)ident fater than it %enefit *ee arti#le+& )en if ne! $o% and!onderf'l prod'#t emerge, in the hort term in#ome gap !ill !iden, #a'ing h'ge o#ial dilo#ationand perhap e)en #hanging politi#& Te#hnolog" impa#t !ill feel li/e a tornado, hitting the ri#h !orldfirt, %'t e)ent'all" !eeping thro'gh poorer #o'ntrie too& No go)ernment i prepared for it&

3h" %e !orried It i partl" $'t a matter of hitor" repeating itelf& In the earl" part of the Ind'trial(e)ol'tion the re!ard of in#reaing prod'#ti)it" !ent diproportionatel" to #apital5 later on, la%o'r reaped mot of the %enefit& The pattern toda" i imilar& The properit" 'nleahed %" the digital

re)ol'tion ha gone o)er!helmingl" to the o!ner of #apital and the highet./illed !or/er& O)er the pat three de#ade, la%o'r hare of o'tp't ha hr'n/ glo%all" from 64 to 7& 9ean!hile, thehare of in#ome going to the top 1 in Ameri#a ha rien from aro'nd in the 1:0 to 22 toda"&;nemplo"ment i at alarming le)el in m'#h of the ri#h !orld, and not $'t for #"#li#al reaon& In2000, 67 of !or/ing.age Ameri#an !ere in !or/5 in#e then the proportion ha fallen, d'ring good"ear a !ell a %ad, to the #'rrent le)el of 7&

3ore, it eem li/el" that thi !a)e of te#hnologi#al dir'ption to the $o% mar/et ha onl" $'t tarted&From dri)erle #ar to #le)er ho'ehold gadget *ee arti#le+, inno)ation that alread" exit #o'ld

http://www.economist.com/printedition/2014-01-18http://www.economist.com/printedition/2014-01-18http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-lesshttp://www.economist.com/news/business/21594259-string-deals-internet-giant-has-positioned-itself-become-big-inventor-andhttp://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-lesshttp://www.economist.com/news/business/21594259-string-deals-internet-giant-has-positioned-itself-become-big-inventor-andhttp://www.economist.com/printedition/2014-01-18

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detro" !athe *pat'ri+ of $o% that ha)e hitherto *pana a#'m+ %een 'nto'#hed& The p'%li# e#tor ione o%)io' target< it ha pro)ed ing'larl" reitant to te#h.dri)en rein)ention& ='t the tep #hange in!hat #omp'ter #an do !ill ha)e a po!erf'l effe#t on middle.#la $o% in the pri)ate e#tor too&

;ntil no! the $o% mot )'lnera%le to ma#hine !ere thoe that in)ol)ed ro'tine, repetiti)e ta/& ='tthan/ to the exponential rie in pro#eing po!er and the '%i>'it" *omnipreent+ of digitied

information *?%ig data@+, #omp'ter are in#reaingl" a%le to perform #ompli#ated ta/ more #heapl"and effe#ti)el" than people& le)er ind'trial ro%ot #an >'i#/l" ?learn@ a et of h'man a#tion&Ber)i#e ma" %e e)en more )'lnera%le& omp'ter #an alread" dete#t intr'der in a #loed.#ir#'it#amera pi#t're more relia%l" than a h'man #an& =" #omparing ream *gramada+ of finan#ial or  %iometri# data, the" #an often diagnoe fra'd or illne more a##'ratel" than an" n'm%er of a##o'ntant or do#tor& One re#ent t'd" %" a#ademi# at Oxford ;ni)erit" 'gget that 4: of toda" $o% #o'ld %e a'tomated in the next t!o de#ade&

At the ame time, the digital re)ol'tion i tranforming the pro#e of inno)ation itelf, a o'r pe#ialreport explain& Than/ to off.the.helf #ode from the internet and platform that hot er)i#e *'#h aAmaon #lo'd #omp'ting+, pro)ide ditri%'tion *Apple app tore+ and offer mar/eting *Fa#e%oo/+,the n'm%er of digital tart'p ha exploded& J't a #omp'ter.game deigner in)ented a prod'#t thath'manit" ne)er /ne! it needed %'t no! #annot do !itho't, o thee firm !ill no do'%t dream 'p ne!good and er)i#e to emplo" million& ='t for no! the" are ing'larl" light on !or/er& 3henIntagram, a pop'lar photo.haring ite, !a old to Fa#e%oo/ for a%o't C1 %illion in 2012, it had -0m#'tomer and emplo"ed 1- people& Doda/, !hi#h filed for %an/r'pt#" a fe! month earlier, emplo"ed147,000 people in it he"da"&

The pro%lem i one of timing a m'#h a an"thing& Eoogle no! emplo" 46,000 people& ='t it ta/e"ear for ne! ind'trie to gro!, !herea the dir'ption a tart'p #a'e to in#'m%ent *operatoritraditionali+ i felt ooner& Air%n% ma" t'rn homeo!ner !ith pare room into entreprene'r, %'t it poe a dire#t threat to the lo!er end of the hotel %'inea mai)e emplo"er&

 No time to %e timid

If thi anal"i i half!a" #orre#t, the o#ial effe#t !ill %e h'ge& 9an" of the $o% mot at ri/ arelo!er do!n the ladder *logiti#, ha'lage+, !herea the /ill that are leat )'lnera%le to a'tomation*#reati)it", managerial expertie+ tend to %e higher 'p, o median !age are li/el" to remain tagnantfor ome time and in#ome gap are li/el" to !iden&

Anger a%o't riing ine>'alit" i %o'nd to gro!, %'t politi#ian !ill find it hard to addre the pro%lem&Bh'nning *%aata pe ren'me+ progre !o'ld %e a f'tile no! a the G'ddite protet againtme#hanied loom !ere in the 1810, %e#a'e an" #o'ntr" that tried to top !o'ld %e left %ehind %"#ompetitor eager to em%ra#e ne! te#hnolog"& The freedom to raie taxe on the ri#h to p'niti)e*reprei)+ le)el !ill %e imilarl" #ontrained %" the mo%ilit" of #apital and highl" /illed la%o'r&

The main !a" in !hi#h go)ernment #an help their people thro'gh thi dilo#ation i thro'ghed'#ation "tem& One of the reaon for the impro)ement in !or/er fort'ne in the latter *din 'rma+ part of the Ind'trial (e)ol'tion !a %e#a'e #hool !ere %'ilt to ed'#ate thema dramati# #hange atthe time& No! thoe #hool themel)e need to %e #hanged, to foter the #reati)it" that h'man !illneed to et them apart from #omp'ter& There ho'ld %e le rote.learning *in)atare pe de rot+ andmore #riti#al thin/ing& Te#hnolog" itelf !ill help, !hether thro'gh 9OO *mai)e open online#o're+ or e)en )ideo game that im'late the /ill needed for !or/&

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21593580-cheap-and-ubiquitous-building-blocks-digital-products-and-services-have-causedhttp://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21593580-cheap-and-ubiquitous-building-blocks-digital-products-and-services-have-causedhttp://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21593580-cheap-and-ubiquitous-building-blocks-digital-products-and-services-have-causedhttp://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21593580-cheap-and-ubiquitous-building-blocks-digital-products-and-services-have-caused

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The definition of ?a tate ed'#ation@ ma" alo #hange& Far more mone" ho'ld %e pent on pre.#hooling, in#e the #ogniti)e a%ilitie and o#ial /ill that #hildren learn in their firt fe! "ear definem'#h of their f't're potential& And ad'lt !ill need #ontin'o' ed'#ation& Btate ed'#ation ma" !ellin)ol)e a "ear of t'd" to %e ta/en later in life, perhap in tage&

Het ho!e)er !ell people are ta'ght, their a%ilitie !ill remain 'ne>'al, and in a !orld !hi#h i

in#reaingl" polaried e#onomi#all", man" !ill find their $o% prope#t dimmed and !age >'eeed&The %et !a" of helping them i not, a man" on the left eem to thin/, to p'h 'p minim'm !age&Ja#/ing 'p *a ridi#a+ the floor too far !o'ld a##elerate the hift from h'man !or/er to #omp'ter&=etter to top 'p lo! !age !ith p'%li# mone" o that an"one !ho !or/ ha a reaona%le in#ome,thro'gh a %old expanion of the tax #redit that #o'ntrie '#h a Ameri#a and =ritain 'e&

Inno)ation ha %ro'ght great %enefit to h'manit"& No%od" in their right mind !o'ld !ant to ret'rn tothe !orld of handloom !ea)er *teatori man'ali+& ='t the %enefit of te#hnologi#al progre are'ne)enl" ditri%'ted, epe#iall" in the earl" tage of ea#h ne! !a)e, and it i 'p to go)ernment topread them& In the 1th #ent'r" it too/ the threat of re)ol'tion to %ring a%o't progrei)e reform&Toda" go)ernment !o'ld do !ell to tart ma/ing the #hange needed %efore their people get angr"&

From the print edition< Geader 

http://www.economist.com/printedition/2014-01-18http://www.economist.com/printedition/2014-01-18