Effects Electronic Markets have on Viral Transmission
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Transcript of Effects Electronic Markets have on Viral Transmission
The Roles Electronic and Mobile Commerce Play in the Spread of Influenza A
By Benjamin RogojanUndergraduateUniversity of Washington Bothell,School of Business
Abstract.
This review will examine the role at which increasing technology plays in the transfer of
influenza A. The changes in methods of electronic communication and commerce in the age of
mobile and electronic communication have played a role in the spread of influenza A. In
comparison to previous global epidemics the speed at which products and traveling business
persons travel has increased. These changes pose a future risk for spreading new pathogens,
especially one as volatile as influenza a virus such as the 2009 H1N1 swine flu epidemic. Due to
the slow growth rate of the virus in incubation CDC took a full year to ship 120 million vaccines
to the public. During this period influenza A H1N1/09 had already reached 214 countries. The
rate of mutation of Influenza has been gradually increasing and new strains have shown
phenotypes of being more virulent as well as resistant to medications and vaccines. Combined
with the current global market, it will be difficult global health organizations to prevent an
epidemic from becoming a pandemic due to increased rate of global trade and travel.
Keywords
Formites, Hemeglutinin, Neuraminidase, Phenotype, Antigenic
Introduction
The Internet first became public in 1995 following the decommissioning of NSFNET the
restricted access to the internet only to education organizations and Military operations (Hilbert,
2011). Once this law was decommissioned it allowed for the internet to become commercialized.
Originally designed for communication amongst scientist across far distances (Gromov, 1995),
the Internet was quickly integrated into commercial utilization and the first product purchased
over the secure Internet occurred in April 1995 (Amnesty, 1995). These changes in methods of
commerce continued in the preceding years. From eBay to Amazon, basic cell phones to
smartphones, the forms of E (M)-commerce began to exponentially grow (Jones, 2013).
Currently, over 200 million households in the US contain at least one computer and 300 million
people subscribe to cell phone providers (Miniwatts, 2014) and an internet connection.
With the increase in E (M)-commerce, technology, and various forms of electronic
communication, it became much easier for products to be purchased. There is no longer need to
travel to make purchases at a store when a person can use an electronic device to purchase what
they need. (Harlan Lebo, 2010). Instead, products began to travel internationally and consumers
began to demand a faster rate of shipping. In response, executives who need to work with their
international branches need to meet more and visit their new locations (Teytlaman, 2012). In the
same way products were being shipped internationally to meet a growing demand from the
public (Rodrigue, 2011). Furthermore, in 2003, the first ssmartphone with Internet capabilities,
the Blackberry, allowed the end-user to utilize both internet and application based software
mobile. The phone was soon popularized by 2006 (Halevy, 2009). This smartphone’s glory was
short-lived, however, as the iPhone and Android smartphones began to appear on the market in
2007 (Apple, Year? Citation for Android?). In response to the increase in smartphone demand,
cell phone providers began to require data transfer capabilities, as well as new application
software and business capabilities. This lead to the increased usage of Internet and E(M)-
commerce (Cromar, 2010). Soon 2G went to 3G, then 3G went to 4G, further increasing the
speed and frequency at which purchases and communications could be made. This began to
create a matrix of larger interactions amongst individuals from greater distances, which in turn
has increased the average amount of human interactions per capita (Christly, 2005). On average,
a person will have a close contact encounter with about 3.4 people in any given day (Mikolajzyk,
2007). This number increases for highly active members of society, this includes the
international business executive, and people considered to be highly sociable tend to be at a
higher risk of human interactions (Christly, 2005). All in all, these members of society are also
increasing their risk of coming into contact with a contagious host (Teytlaman, 2012).
Influenza A is caused by a single stranded RNA virus that requires either physical contact
or encounters with aerosol particles from a sneeze or cough within a range of about 6 feet in
order to infect a new host (CDC, 2014). The virus is susceptible to UV light and heat, and it
often spreads best in the dryer and colder months, scientist attribute this mostly due to the
amount of water vapor in the air making it more difficult to travel in warmer wetter
months(however, in tropical climates flu is a year round issue) (Lowen 2007). Unlike many
disease causing vireuses, such as those which cause polio, measles, hepatitis, and small pox,
which have vaccíneas that provide lifelong protection with boosters, influenza A’s capsid, which
is it’s shell made of segmented proteins that protect the RNA genetic material. Influenza A’s
capsid is constantly changing, due to the constantly changing receptors located on the capsids
surface scientist must constantly predict the mutations and come up with a subsequent vaccine
every season(Influenza, 2013). Influenza A virus’s greatest method of fitness is to avoid the
human immune system and seasonal vaccines by mutating its RNA randomly through continues
replication (Influenza, 2009). In particular, this virus is capable of altering two of its outer
Receptor proteins that allow it to enter the cell. Hemanglutinin (HA) a glycoprotein
receptor located on the viral capsid, binds with Salic acid on
the cell membrane, and then later allows the capsid to access
the cells endosome membrane(Russell, 2008).
Neuraminidase (NA) acts as an enzyme, following the viral
capsids docking it cleaves the HA protein from Salic acid.
In fig. 1 hemanglutinin is in green, and neuraminidase is in
blue (Enami, 2009). Currently there are 18 different
varieties of HA proteins and 11 different NA, in which each specific strain has small alternations
(CDC, 2014). Despite the many varieties of this virus, there are only a few, however, that are
virulent to humans, including H1N1 and H2N3 (WHO 2008). Recent advances in RNA
sequencing and networking data bases such as FLUDB have allowed researchers to follow
strains and examine their mutations, as was the case with the recent H1N1 breakout (Squires,
2012). This new ability allows comparison to previous pathogenic outbreaks to determine
relative differences. During the past decade, the change to E (M)-commerce has influenced the
rate of person and product movement, increasing the probability of viral particles being
transferred from host to host.
Humans have changed the way they purchase merchandise as products have become
more accessible using E (M)-commerce. Changes in technology and a high demand for products
have pushed companies to offer better services to their customer, including a larger variety of
products produced in a variety of countries and regions. This has therefore increased the distance
Figure 1. Influenza A Viral Capsid Diagram
at which products are sent and received. In turn, the necessity for travel of business people,
marketing managers etc., has increased the chance of infected hosts coming into contact with
unaffected people.
Research Methods
This review will examine the trends in the field of electronic communication and mobile
commerce, and the plausible effects the changes in communication and mobile technology play
in the spread of influenza A. By examining the Internet usage, both rurally and in business
settings, and the increase in E (M)-commerce technologies and the roles they play on customer
demands for international trade and speed. Comparing current trade and travel abilities, to
previous abilities in earlier points in history will be used to compare the previous rates of
transmission of infections to current influenza A and its ability to mutate its genetic material.
Influenza
Influenza causes on average 30,000 deaths and over 200,000 hospitalizations in the U.S. per year
(Thompson, 2004). The CDC tracks the spread and RNA alterations of influenza, particularly
Type A. A close watch is kept over influenza A virus due to two main factors: (1) influenza A
virus can infect a large spectrum of species (i.e. birds, horses, pigs, humans, etc.) and it has the
ability to occasionally jump species, creating concerns for human immunity to new strains
(Citation), and (2) the innate volatility of Influenza A virus’s RNA sequences, particularly the
sequences linked to the translation of HA receptor glycoprotein and NA (Influenza 2009). These
changes, however, are not limited to the HA, and NA protiens (Suzuki, 2009).
Influenza Trends
Influenza virus in temperate climates is currently known for being active during the cold and dry
months, and more active in the tropics year round (Lowen, 2007). There are several hypotheses
for influenza being seasonal. Yet, because due to the patterns influenza has in tropical climates it
has been difficult to solidify any specific theory. As shown in Figure 3, the infectivity rates in
the 2008-2009 North American flu season falls within the last weeks of 2008, leading to the
highest infectivity rate in weeks 5,7 and 9 of early 2009 — consistent with seasonal trends in
most temperate climate countries (Lowen, 2007). In contrast, other studies have shown that in
tropical climate countries such as Thailand, and Vietnam have several spikes in influenza that
occur over an annual period of time (Susuki, 2009). In Suzuki’s study researchers examined the
transfer of viral strains from Vietnam to Japan and finally to North America. This trait is not
isolated to the orient it has also been recorded in South America (WHO, 2011)
Insert figure heading here.
Figure 2. Influenza Seasonal Infections By week 2008-2009
In 2009, a new influenza A strain of H1N1 cropped up in Mexico, jumping from pig to human
hosts. This viral strain, unlike previous strains, began to affect America earlier than typical flu
season parameters, beginning in the spring and summer months of that year (Citation). In Figure
4, the global mortality rate is shown, depicting two large waves occurring before the typical
seasons, actively infecting people in North America during the warmer summer months
(Citation). Unlike previous strains that remained dormant during warmer months, this influenza
strain was more virulent and transmittable outside of normal flu season (CDC, 2010). This
increased the rate of overall infections that occurred during 2009-2010. Also if the infection
would have had a higher mortality rate it would be capable of transferring for host to host before
the CDC could come out with a vaccine.
Influenza Mutations
In recent years, Japanese influenza A’s amantidine resistance soared from 7.3% to 90% during
the 2003-2007 timeframe (Suzuki, 2009). Amantadine is an anti-viral medication that acts as a
competitive inhibiter with the viral protein M2 (Wang, 1993). This increased the rate of summer
peaks, Japan similar to America has its influenza season in winter, and however during the
periods from 2001-2007 4 of the 6 summer seasons had influenza peaks (Suzuki, 2009). The M2
protein is vital in the replication of Influenza A, following the endocytosis or entrance of the
virus across the endomembrane the M2 ion channel and is used in the acidification of the viral
capsid (Sakaguchi 1996). Being able to inhibit this process was key to stopping viral
replication. This was due to a change in a single amino-acid on the M2 gene of influenza A strain
H3N2 (Furuse 2009). RNA and DNA have redundant code to avoid viral mutations. A single
amino acid change due to the likely hood of a single amino acid change affecting the significance
of an organism. The US is observing similar changes in an H3N2 strain related to a 1968
pandemic that recently resurfaced (Kilbourne, 2006).This new strain has acquired new genetic
information from an avian influenza strain, antigenic shift which refers to two virus of the same
family swapping RNA to create a new virus, is one another risk influenza A poses(Job,2014).
Similar changes in influenza A H1N1 have been recorded in the H1N1/00 compared to the
H1N1/09 subtypes. Although these subtypes have the same origin they show very different
phenotypes. H1N1/09 has phenotypes that allow for easier transmission as well as increased
resistance to Adamantine and Oseltamivir medication. Adamantine antagonizes the M2 Ion
channel while Oseltamivir competes with the NA enzyme. This forces both world health
organizations and pharmaceutical to find alternative competitive inhibitors. However at the rate
H1N1 changes per year, which is currently 3.6 amino acids per-year (Ji-Rong Yang, 2013), This
task has become more difficult. For instance, it took the CDC a full year to produce the 121
million vaccines for H1N1/09. During this period the CDC was slowed by the rate the virus grew
in chicken egg embryos (CDC, 2010). Even this only is enough vaccines to inoculate 30 percent
of Americans. A new change in the virulence and transmission of another influenza strain could
couple with the rate at which the CDC is capable of produce a vaccine poses a new threat.
Figure 3. Global Deaths from H1N1/09 Influenza pandemic
One of these threats is depicted in Figure 4, above; this depicts the enhanced transmission
even during summer months. Unlike previous influenza strains which are not as active during the
warmer months. New strains of influenza A are demonstrating traits that are placing new stress
on world health orginzations. Influenza A, unlike many other viruses in past pandemics, is
difficult to eradicate. Due to its ability to change its genetic material, and go through anti-genic
drift
(Treanor, 2004). It also is not limited to the transmission of person to person. There are
several cases and previos pandemics , such as in 1918 where the horses were branded the culprit
of spread. Other more recent cases involve the 2004 avian flu and 2009 H1N1 swine flu
outbreak. If a single amino acid change can create a Adamantine, Oseltamivir, or Long Pentraxin
PTX3 resistance. Then it leaves the door open for a multiple amino acid that could lead to a
change that could produce a highly virulent influenza strain (Job, 2014).
Commerce Effects on Disease
Trade, travel, and commerce have played roles in several epidemics. One of the most notable
was the bubonic plague, caused by Yersinia pestis, that arose in 1330 in China (Sean, 2001),
eventually spreading along trade routes to Italy by invading Mongol hordes (Sean 2001). From
there, it travelled all across Europe from 1347-1400 (Austin, 2003). Trade and animals played a
large role in the spread of this disease fleas being transported on rats carried the disease and were
transported on trade ships bit humans and began to transmit the disease (Austin, 2013). In this
case, it is estimated that approximately 75-200 million people in China, Europe, and southern
Russia were killed as a result of the plague (Sean, 2001). It should be noted, however, that during
this same time period, countries with populations whom did not trade with Europe flourished and
their numbers grew (Sean, 2001). This is significant today because there are few countries that
don’t trade with one another (Crafts, 2009). If a highly virulent influenza A strain mutated, it
would become difficult to stop.
Another similar case in which disease was caused by travel followed World War I. In this case,
the disease, commonly known as Spanish Influenza, was believed to be spread by soldiers
returning from the Great War (Film, 2003). Some of the first cases of this influenza A were
recorded in Spain and America, but the virus later traveled all across the world (Film, 2003). The
mortality rate of this virus was approximately 2.5% (Briggs, 1997), and an estimated 20-40
million people died in under a year (Briggs 1997). These numbers may seem unsubstantial when
compared to the total world population, especially when compared to the death toll of the
bubonic plague. However, there are several risk factors that increase the seriousness of
pandemics. The first is the rate at which the virus spreads and kills their hosts (Briggs, 1997).
Unlike the black plague that took almost a century to cross Europe, Asia, and Southern Russia
and kill 75 million people (Briggs,1997), influenza A in 1918 took 1 year to cross the world,
killing at least 20 million people in the process (Briggs, 1997). In comparison the 1918 strain of
influenza killed 20-40 million people in one year compared to 1 year in Europe alone only 10
million people died Secondly, influenza A’s RNA changes rapidly, and it can jump species
(Treanor, 2004). In turn, this leads to anti-genic drift. This is the process of two different
subtypes of viruses that effect two different species combine their RNA to create a new strain.
The assortment of RNA can lead to new phenotypic traits. This leaves the option of a new virus
being translated in either a human or other animal species and then increasing fitness, and
mortality of the host. (Treanor, 2004). This increases the possibility of a new phenotype
surfacing that might increase virulence.
H1N1 2009 Swine Flu
In April 2009, a new strain of influenza was detected in Mexico,and the US (CDC, 2009). Within
a couple months, the virus spread to over 200 countries and territories (CDC, 2009). By June
2009, the WHO raised influenza A H1N1 to pandemic level 6, which refers to a moderate
outbreak of influenza(CDC, 2009). The figure below depicts the mortality rate of influenza A
H1N1 over the period of April 2009 - April 2010 (WHO, 2009). The mortality rate of this new
virus is comparable to previous pandemics, as the speed at which this pathogen spread over a
year’s time was unprecedented. Trade, product shifting business men, and highly active members
in communities in the modern age play a large role in the transmission of various diseases
(Teytelman, 2007), and this case was no different. The data in fig. _ which shows the spread that
occurred in one year, as well as in comparission with previous pandemics such as the black
plague the total distance traveled, the distance traveled and infection rate is much higher during
the 2009 outbreak.
Figure 4. World Wide Mortality rates due to H1N1/09 2009-2010
Figure. 5 Mid-Atlantic Influenza infections(CDC)
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Figure 6. Northwest Region Influenza Infections(CDC)
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Even though the viral strain H1N1/09 was not as pathogenic as the previous three influenza
pandemics in the 20century, it still possessed other key traits of H1N1/09. As discussed earlier,
influenza in temperate climates infects people in the colder and dryer months. Unlike normal
influenza outbreaks, many cases of H1N1 were recorded in spring and summer month. Figures 5
and 6 both look at the different infection rates of influenza over periods of time. Each is a
different region of the United stated. Fig. 6 depicts the Northwest region while Fig. 5 depicts the
Mid-Atlantic region. In both figures the rate of Influenza type A increased following 2009. This
was due to H1N1/09 the data shown in Figure 4 depicts H1N1/09 and its rapid increase and
overall cause of an influx of influenza in the years 2009-2010. There are two large peaks in the
2009-2010 season on the graph. The new strain was capable of infecting hosts in summer months
which lead to a higher number of infection in 2009-2010. From a week to week basis, Figure 4
shows similar data to figures 1, and 2, but instead views the growth and rapid transmission of
influenza H1N1/09. Like Spanish Influenza, this viral strain managed to become a global
pandemic all in under a year (Briggs, 1997). H1N1/09 similar to the 1918 flu took less than a
year to travel the around the world, much faster than the black plague did in 1347 (CDC, 2009).
If a more virulent, mutated strain of influenza were to arise, it runs the risk of being transferred
quickly across borders (WHO, 2010). Furthermore, subtypes sometimes co-infect a host and,
through exchange of RNA segments, can lead to mutated variants in future subtypes (Treanor,
2004).
Changes in Internet Usage
Commercial business as early as 1995 began to utilize the internet for research and
development forms of communication using an electronic medium to transfer information and
messages (Yates, 1999; Rollor, 2001). New methods of communication opened up new markets
for companies of all sizes. Companies of all size could now communicate internationally with
their markets. This in turn opened the opportunity to market their products around the world even
if they could not afford mass marketing. Previous changes in communication technology have
influenced global trade and International GDP. In one case in 1970 in the first international
transatlantic telephone lines became available. Soon to follow behind in 1971 Amtrak finished
their mainlines. Following these technological changes economies around the world saw an
average growth rate of the GDP per capita 3.96 by 1990, compared to the previous two decades
in which the growth was only 1.96(Rollor, 2001). Technology has opened doors to companies to
reach international markets and thus increase their communication and product transfer with new
customers. Economic growth has continued as technology and innovation in the 21st century has
continued to drive the speed and purchasing of countries. Following the introduction of E-
commerce in 1995 the electronic market began grew steadily. From 2000-2008 the electronic
market grew an average of 10 billion dollars annually. The stability of e-commerce in figure 9
continued even through the 2009 recession. In this graph the change from 2008 to 2009
Figure 7. E-commerce Growth rate
2nd quarter 2000
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GDP in Thousands
Of overall sales only dropped 3%. Increasing trade and commerce internationally began
to create new industries and jobs and increase the size of the global market. This provided new
opportunities for influenza A to spread through moving products and hosts. The more required
mediators of trade and products countries desired from the electronic market opened up new
opportunities for influenza A transmission.
Rural Internet Usage
During the same period of time researchers began to notice a large increase in internet
usage in rural areas. From 1998-2000 they recorded an increase of 41% of internet connections
(McIntosh, 2001).
Figure 7. Internet Households
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ehol
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ith In
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There was a similar increase of households with internet from 2005-2007. Depicted
in Fig. 7, the amount of households with internet nearly double between this time periods. The
large increase in computers per household increased the availability of the internet for the
average household user. Where the average person from 18-92 years old in the US would spend
40 hours a week on the internet (U.S. Census 2005). Similar numbers were recognized during
2001-2006 in Japan, as numbers of internet users doubled over a small period of time(Nakano,
2009). People are beginning to rely more upon electronic forms of communication in order to
communicate and feel a sense of community. “Thus, the tools of the information revolution
provide a convenient means for the hyper-involved to continue their engagement when they are
physically alone and at any hour of the day” (McIntosh 2009). This in turn has the opportunity to
reduce the amount of necessity for human interactions. However this is in contrary with many
recent studies show that the increase in usage of the internet has made it easier to communicate
with others and increase their personal networks. For example, Reeds law depicts that a social
network with N number of people increase the possibility of creating personal and small groups
to the equivalent of 2 to the power of N .It has allowed for people to become closer and meet,
whereas without internet there is the plausibility they themselves never would have met. It has
merely, as some researchers have found, a new “tool” in our social tool kit (Tyler, 2002). We
rely on it to make our lives more efficient. Instead of decreasing our face to face interactions it
has made it easier to mediate and schedule days. With the result, the increasing usage and
reliance on the internet has provided a new opportunity to meet with people that we may not
have originally had time for. The more things seem to change, the more they really stay the same
E(M)-commerce
E (M)-commerce has played a large role on the impact of how products flow from raw materials
to finished product. In the figure 2(). There are two large inclines that can be observed in e-
commerce. From 2000-2007 and following 2009. Even through the recession of 2009 the global
revenue for electronic commerce remained overall stagnant. Customers continued to purchase
the similar amounts of products using electronic methods, even with the risk of the market. In
case of a global epidemic it begs the question, will people continue to purchase products and
force global business even with the risk of disease transfer. The world’s E commerce has
increased at a rapid rate over the past decade. Even during 2005 as examined in figure 8 at the
risk of avian flu outbreak customers continued to demand products.
Figure. 8 Internationally Shipped Products in Millions of Tons
Risks of E (M)-Commerce
Customers have become accustom to receiving products from international trade, oil,
smartphones, computers etc. Tied with ability for the customer to adjust and purchase products
immediately, is allowing products to be purchased faster. The change in the push/pull
relationships has given customers the feeling of being in charge with personal electronic
coupons, and mobile marketing. The increase in usage of E (M)-commerce has increased the
amount of necessity of international travel and traveling formites that could spread disease
transfer. Influenza is transferred through physical contact either with a host or with a product that
has virual capsids attached to them. In several similar cases such as the 1918 Spanish Flu
researchers account for the rapid transmission of the disease to the heavy amount of soldiers
traveling and returning from World War 1. It was also accounted to the ability of international
trade increasing (Stanford 1997). Another similar case can be examined in the Bubonic plague,
which was spread on rats on cargo ships to human hosts.
Smartphones
Smartphones entered the market in early 2000, around 2003 Blackberries began to alter the
phone market. The need for faster data speeds, diverse applications and internet usage became
customer needs. Mobile phones have given people the freedom to use various form of electronic
communication, including texting, data transfer, while they remain mobile. SMS alone in 2010
was estimated to account for 60% of the revenue collected for data transfer (Mahatanankoon,
2007). In figure 10 the amount of cellular subscribers in the USA in 1999 only 1/3 the
population had a cellphones, in contrast by 2010 nearly everyone in the USA owned some form
of a cellphone. The increased usage and availability of mobile phones has given marketers, and
companies’ new opportunities to sell to their customers. This has changed the necessity of
products, and increased the range from where products can come from. Companies such as
Amazon sell products from Samsung and Sony both companies that are selling products to an
international market. Amazon has recently begun to offer Amazon prime which gives customers
2 day shipping. Customers are constantly demanding and preferring a faster shipping rate. People
show traits of preferring instant gratification. Previous studies have shown that humans offered X
–value money now and an increased Y-value in a year from now, even if it is a substantial rise in
value humans will more likely choose the lower value money now rather than later (Fredrick,
2002). Humans do not show a desire to wait. Smartphones shift speeds to faster and faster speed
in turn humans have a higher demand for faster moving products. Companies such as Amazon,
as mentioned above has pin-pointed this desire and has begun to market products globally at
faster rates. This change places pressure on global traders and suppliers to become faster and
increase quantity of products. Leading to increased marketing, and meetings and necessity of
traveling active humans. This allows for the probability of traveling humans and products to
encounter viral particles. Mobile commerce has allowed the customer to demand products 24/7.
It has increased the market, and the economy. However, it has also created a new window to
influenza capsid particles to encounter uninfected hosts.
Figure 9. Cellular Subscribers
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
050,000,000
100,000,000150,000,000200,000,000250,000,000300,000,000350,000,000
Analysis
Examine figures 1, 2, 4, 5. There are similar trends. Although the initial reaction to influenza
rates are low from 2000- 2008. In 2009 the avian flu became mobile, crossing from China, to
America, and to the rest of the world. The current demand and speed of shipping will assist in the
spread of a pathogen. Populations have become dependent on products being shipped from
outsourced producers. Reexamine Figure 8 Shipping grew by 2500 million tons of product
annually. Except for the year 2009 during the rescission shipping continues to grow at a rapid
rate. With the growing shipping rates we are also witnessing rapidly mutating sub-types of
influenza A. Figure 6 shows the phenotypes of influenza A H1N1, due to small changes in the
Viral RNA the virus shows traits of being more virulent, having resistance to Adamantine, and
Oseltamivir. It also has demonstrates signs of having enhanced transmission. All of these
changes have been minor. Just examine the few examples this paper looks at we see that the
phenotypes have minor changes in amino acids. In 2000 influenza had little resistance to current
medicine and low transmission and virulence. In contrast in 2009, 2010, etc., we are beginning to
see increased virulence in strains that are human and non-human species. Alongside these new
phenotypes, the change in seasonality of certain virus strains is also a new variable that can
contribute to the future virulence of a new influenza strain. The virus’s ability to constantly
change its receptors and ion channels makes this virus a high contender for a future epidemic
with high mortality rates. With increased shipping rates and demands it will become difficult to
track and predict the movement of an influenza strain with increased virulence and lack of
seasonality. Even with the knowledge of various outbreaks world health organizations have still
commonly struggled to keep up with the quickly changing strains of influenza.
Discussion
Influenza A is a highly volatile virus that has the potential to become more than a seasonal
ailment. Instead, in similar cases such as in 1918 the virus may become virulent enough to have a
high mortality rate. In this modern era of E (M) commerce, and instant gratification with quick
deliveries. E (M)-commerce is no longer a luxury, it has become a necessity to many people in
developed countries. The culmination of using the Internet as a form of E-business to both
increases the range and rate at which products can go poses a growing threat. The rate at which
free agents come into contact with infected products and Hosts will become unmanageable. The
amount of people and products infected formites and hosts will encounter will be far greater than
in previous centuries. It will become difficult for government entities such as the CDC or the
WHO to create plans and quarantine countries and product at a rate that was fast enough to slow
the spread. In cases such as the 2009 epidemic of H1N1 the rate of infection was unavoidable.
Even with all the samples collected by the CDC and other companies it took 1 year for the
vaccine to come out (CDC, 2010). During this period influenza could have already taken on new
RNA phenotypes that would be unpredictable and continue to spread and become more resistant.
influenza unlike many other viruses does not have a stagnant RNA. It is susceptible to changes
and has managed to elude world health organizations for years. Recently new strains have
surfaced such as H6N1, and H7N9 that shows new affinities to attach to salicylic acid receptors
on the lung and esophagus lining. This strain is yet to cross over from its avian origin.
Nevertheless it still poses a new threat to the human species. influenza has shown rates of being
most infectious when a person is asymptomatic. This leads to the belief that even if people take
steps to avoid contact with infected hosts this will not slow the overall spread. E (M)-commerce
are engrained into societal trends. Many developed countries will not realize the threat the
consumer poses during the next outbreak as products shift from country to country. E (M)-
commerce comes with the expectation of speed. Even with human preventative measures the
speed at which an influenza A subtype in the future may pose threat due to the overwhelm speed
and distance reduction E(M)Commerce has provided
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