EFFECT OF CLIMATIC FACTORS EFFECT OF CLIMATIC FACTORS ON CROPON CROP

AGRICULTURE RESEARACH INSTITITUTE AGRICULTURE RESEARACH INSTITITUTE (ARI)TANDOJAM(ARI)TANDOJAM

MASHOOQ HUSSAIN ODHANOMASHOOQ HUSSAIN ODHANO ASSISTANT RESEARACH OFFICER ASSISTANT RESEARACH OFFICER

AGRICULTURE CHEMISTRY (SOILS) SECTION AGRICULTURE CHEMISTRY (SOILS) SECTION AGRICUTLURE RESEARCH INSTITUTE TANDOJAMAGRICUTLURE RESEARCH INSTITUTE TANDOJAM

As elevation increases, the average temperature decreases. As elevation increases, the average temperature decreases. Above a certain elevation, low temperatures make it Above a certain elevation, low temperatures make it impossible for trees to grow, as seen here on Washington's impossible for trees to grow, as seen here on Washington's Mount Rainier. Mount Rainier.

Pakistan’s Resource BasePakistan’s Resource Base

LAND (in million hectare)LAND (in million hectare) Geographical area Geographical area = 79.6 = 79.6 Area under cultivation Area under cultivation = 27.6% (21.87)= 27.6% (21.87) Crop area irrigatedCrop area irrigated = 22.6% (17.99)= 22.6% (17.99) Rainfed Agriculture areaRainfed Agriculture area = 4.97% (21.87)= 4.97% (21.87) ForestForest = 4.5% (3.61)= 4.5% (3.61) Culturable wasteCulturable waste = 11.7% (9.31)= 11.7% (9.31) Range LandsRange Lands = 59% (46.96)= 59% (46.96)

RabiRabi– November-AprilNovember-April

Wheat, Lentil, ChickpeaWheat, Lentil, Chickpea

KharifKharif– May-OctoberMay-October

Rice, Maize, Mungbean, CottonRice, Maize, Mungbean, Cotton

Cropping SeasonsCropping Seasons

Crop Water Demand

Water Availability

Evapo-transpiration (ET)

Agriculture (Crop Yield)

Photosynthetic Activity

Climate

Temperature RainfallWind,

Sunshine, Solar Radiation

CO2 level

Canal/ground water

Agricultural productivityAgricultural productivity

CropCrop YieldYield

WheatWheat 2262 kg/ha2262 kg/ha

RiceRice 1836 kg/ha1836 kg/ha

MaizeMaize 1768 kg/ha1768 kg/ha

SugarcaneSugarcane 48.1 t/ha48.1 t/ha

CottonCotton 579 kg/ha579 kg/ha

FodderFodder 22.3 t/ha22.3 t/ha

Climate and Food ProductionClimate and Food Production

Weather Weather and and ClimateClimate are the key factors are the key factors in food productivityin food productivity

Being open to vagaries of nature, food Being open to vagaries of nature, food production are highly vulnerable production are highly vulnerable

to climate change phenomenato climate change phenomena

What is Crop?What is Crop? A A cropcrop is a volunteered or cultivated plant (any plant) whose is a volunteered or cultivated plant (any plant) whose

produce is harvested by man at some point of its growth stage.produce is harvested by man at some point of its growth stage. CropsCrops refer to refer to plantsplants of same kind that are grown on a large of same kind that are grown on a large

scale for scale for foodfood, , clothingclothing, and other human uses. They are non-, and other human uses. They are non-animalanimal speciesspecies or or varietiesvarieties grown to be grown to be harvestedharvested as food, as food, livestocklivestock fodderfodder, , fuelfuel or for any other economic purpose (for or for any other economic purpose (for example, for use as dyes, medicinal, and cosmetic use).example, for use as dyes, medicinal, and cosmetic use).

Major crops include Major crops include sugarcanesugarcane, , pumpkinpumpkin, , maizemaize (corn), (corn), wheatwheat, , ricerice, , cassavacassava, , soybeanssoybeans, , hayhay, , potatoespotatoes and and cottoncotton. While the . While the term "crop" most commonly refers to plants, it can also include term "crop" most commonly refers to plants, it can also include species from other species from other biological kingdomsbiological kingdoms. .

For example, For example, mushroomsmushrooms like like shiitakeshiitake, which are in the , which are in the fungifungi kingdom, can be referred to as "crops". In addition, certain kingdom, can be referred to as "crops". In addition, certain species of species of algaealgae are also cultivated, although it is also are also cultivated, although it is also harvested from the wild. In contrast, animal species that are harvested from the wild. In contrast, animal species that are raised by raised by humanshumans are called livestock, except those that are are called livestock, except those that are kept as kept as petspets. . MicrobialMicrobial species, such as species, such as bacteriabacteria or or virusesviruses, are , are referred to as cultures. Microbes are not typically grown for referred to as cultures. Microbes are not typically grown for food, but are rather used to alter food. For example, bacteria food, but are rather used to alter food. For example, bacteria are used to ferment milk to produce yogurt.are used to ferment milk to produce yogurt.

What is Climate?What is Climate?

Climate is defined as an area's long-term weather Climate is defined as an area's long-term weather patterns. The simplest way to describe climate is patterns. The simplest way to describe climate is to look at average temperature and precipitation to look at average temperature and precipitation over time. Other useful elements for describing over time. Other useful elements for describing climate include the type and the timing of climate include the type and the timing of precipitation, amount of sunshine, average wind precipitation, amount of sunshine, average wind speeds and directions, number of days above speeds and directions, number of days above freezing, weather extremes, and local geography. freezing, weather extremes, and local geography.

Climate Related climatic factors of Climate Related climatic factors of Agricultural ProductivityAgricultural Productivity

COCO22

TemperatureTemperature Solar RadiationSolar Radiation PrecipitationPrecipitation Others (Wind speed and direction, Soil Moisture, Others (Wind speed and direction, Soil Moisture,

Water vapour, etc.)Water vapour, etc.)

Basic understanding of these factors helps manipulate Basic understanding of these factors helps manipulate plants to meet human needs of food, fiber and shelter plants to meet human needs of food, fiber and shelter The parameters also help understand impacts of The parameters also help understand impacts of climate change and devise adaptation/mitigation climate change and devise adaptation/mitigation strategiesstrategies

Rainfall and WaterRainfall and Water

RainfallRainfall is the most common form of is the most common form of precipitationprecipitation. It is the falling of water in . It is the falling of water in droplets on the surface of the Earth from droplets on the surface of the Earth from clouds. Other forms of precipitation are clouds. Other forms of precipitation are freezing rainfreezing rain, , sleet or ice pelletssleet or ice pellets, , snowfallsnowfall, , and and hailhail..

The amount and regularity of rainfall vary The amount and regularity of rainfall vary with location and climate types and affect with location and climate types and affect the dominance of certain types of vegetation the dominance of certain types of vegetation as well as crop growth and yield as well as crop growth and yield

LightLight Light is a climatic factor that is essential in Light is a climatic factor that is essential in

the production of chlorophyll and in the production of chlorophyll and in photosynthesisphotosynthesis, the process by which , the process by which plants manufacture food in the form of plants manufacture food in the form of sugarsugar (carbohydrate). (carbohydrate).

Other plant processes that are enhanced by Other plant processes that are enhanced by this climatic factor include: this climatic factor include: stomatal stomatal movementmovement, , phototropismphototropism, , photomorphogenesisphotomorphogenesis, , translocationtranslocation, , mineral mineral absorptionabsorption, and , and abscission.abscission.

Light (Contin;)Light (Contin;) LightLight is that visible portion of the is that visible portion of the solar radiationsolar radiation

or or electromagnetic spectrumelectromagnetic spectrum. It is a form of . It is a form of kinetic energy that comes from the sun in tiny kinetic energy that comes from the sun in tiny particles called particles called quantaquanta or or photonsphotons, travelling in , travelling in waves. waves.

Three properties of this climatic factor that affect Three properties of this climatic factor that affect plant growth and development are plant growth and development are light qualitylight quality, , light intensitylight intensity, and , and day length or photoperiodday length or photoperiod. .

Light qualityLight quality refers to the specific wavelengths of refers to the specific wavelengths of light; light; light intensitylight intensity is the degree of brightness is the degree of brightness that a plant receives; and that a plant receives; and daylengthdaylength is the is the duration of the day with respect to the night period. duration of the day with respect to the night period.

TemperatureTemperature : : The degree of hotness or coldness of a substance is called The degree of hotness or coldness of a substance is called temperaturetemperature. . It is commonly expressed in degree Celsius or centigrade (C) and degree It is commonly expressed in degree Celsius or centigrade (C) and degree

Fahrenheit (F) This climatic factor influences all plant growth processes Fahrenheit (F) This climatic factor influences all plant growth processes such as:such as:

Photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, breaking of seed dormancy, seed Photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, breaking of seed dormancy, seed germination, protein synthesis, and translocation. At high temperatures the germination, protein synthesis, and translocation. At high temperatures the translocation of photosynthate is faster so that plants tend to mature earlier. translocation of photosynthate is faster so that plants tend to mature earlier.

In general, plants survive within a temperature range of 0 to 50 C .Enzyme In general, plants survive within a temperature range of 0 to 50 C .Enzyme activity and the rate of most chemical reactions generally increase with rise activity and the rate of most chemical reactions generally increase with rise in temperature. Up to a certain point, there is doubling of enzymatic reaction in temperature. Up to a certain point, there is doubling of enzymatic reaction with every 10 C temperature increase But at excessively high temperatures, with every 10 C temperature increase But at excessively high temperatures, denaturation of enzymes and other proteins occur. denaturation of enzymes and other proteins occur.

Excessively low temperatures can also cause limiting effects on plant growth Excessively low temperatures can also cause limiting effects on plant growth and development. For example, water absorption is inhibited when the soil and development. For example, water absorption is inhibited when the soil temperature is low because water is more viscuous at low temperatures and temperature is low because water is more viscuous at low temperatures and less mobile, and the protoplasm is less permeable. At temperatures below less mobile, and the protoplasm is less permeable. At temperatures below the freezing point of water, there is change in the form of water from liquid to the freezing point of water, there is change in the form of water from liquid to solid. The expansion of water as it solidifies in living cells causes the rupture solid. The expansion of water as it solidifies in living cells causes the rupture of the cell walls.of the cell walls.

The favorable or optimal day and night temperature range for plant growth The favorable or optimal day and night temperature range for plant growth and maximum yields varies among crop species. and maximum yields varies among crop species.

TemperatureTemperature

AirAir The The airair is a mixture of gases in the atmosphere. According to Miller is a mixture of gases in the atmosphere. According to Miller

(2001), about 75% of this air is found in the (2001), about 75% of this air is found in the tropospheretroposphere, the , the innermost layer of the atmosphere which extends about 17 km above innermost layer of the atmosphere which extends about 17 km above sea level at the equator and about 8 km over the poles. sea level at the equator and about 8 km over the poles.

In addition, about 99% of the clean, dry air in the troposphere consists In addition, about 99% of the clean, dry air in the troposphere consists of 78% nitrogen and 21% oxygen. The remainder consists of argon of 78% nitrogen and 21% oxygen. The remainder consists of argon (slightly less than 1%), carbon dioxide (0.036%), and traces of other (slightly less than 1%), carbon dioxide (0.036%), and traces of other gases. gases.

The oxygen and carbon dioxide in the air are of particular importance to The oxygen and carbon dioxide in the air are of particular importance to the physiology of plants. Oxygen is essential in the physiology of plants. Oxygen is essential in respirationrespiration for the for the production of energy that is utilized in various growth and development production of energy that is utilized in various growth and development processes. Carbon dioxide is a raw material in photosynthesis. processes. Carbon dioxide is a raw material in photosynthesis.

The air also consists of suspended particles of dust and chemical air The air also consists of suspended particles of dust and chemical air pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), sulfur trioxide (SO3), nitrogen oxides, methane (CH4), dioxide (SO2), sulfur trioxide (SO3), nitrogen oxides, methane (CH4), propane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), solid particles of dust, soot, propane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), solid particles of dust, soot, asbestos and lead, ozone and many more. asbestos and lead, ozone and many more.

However, the composition of this climatic factor is susceptible of However, the composition of this climatic factor is susceptible of variation. Recently, there has been a hightenend alarm about the variation. Recently, there has been a hightenend alarm about the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Relative HumidityRelative Humidity The amount of water vapor that the air can hold depends on its temperature; warm The amount of water vapor that the air can hold depends on its temperature; warm

air has the capacity to hold more water vapor than cold air. There is almost one-half air has the capacity to hold more water vapor than cold air. There is almost one-half reduction in the amount of water vapor that the air can hold for every 10 C drop in reduction in the amount of water vapor that the air can hold for every 10 C drop in temperature. temperature.

Relative humidity (RH)Relative humidity (RH) is the amount of water vapor in the air, expressed as the is the amount of water vapor in the air, expressed as the proportion (in percent) of the maximum amount of water vapor it can hold at certain proportion (in percent) of the maximum amount of water vapor it can hold at certain temperature. For example, an air having a relative humidity of 60% at 27 C temperature. For example, an air having a relative humidity of 60% at 27 C temperature means that every kilogram of the air contains 60% of the maximum temperature means that every kilogram of the air contains 60% of the maximum amount of water that it can hold at that temperature .amount of water that it can hold at that temperature .

The amount of water vapor in the air ranges from 0.01% by volume at the frigid poles The amount of water vapor in the air ranges from 0.01% by volume at the frigid poles to 5% in the humid tropics. Compared to dry air, moist air has a higher relative to 5% in the humid tropics. Compared to dry air, moist air has a higher relative humidity with relatively large amounts of water vapor per unit volume of air. humidity with relatively large amounts of water vapor per unit volume of air.

The relative humidity affects the opening and closing of the stomata which regulates The relative humidity affects the opening and closing of the stomata which regulates loss of water from the plant through transpiration as well as photosynthesis. A loss of water from the plant through transpiration as well as photosynthesis. A substantial understanding of this climatic factor is likewise important in plant substantial understanding of this climatic factor is likewise important in plant propagation. Newly collected plant cuttings and bareroot seedlings are protected propagation. Newly collected plant cuttings and bareroot seedlings are protected against dessication by enclosing them in a sealed plastic bag. The against dessication by enclosing them in a sealed plastic bag. The propagation propagation chamberchamber and and plastic tentplastic tent are also commonly used in propagating stem and leaf are also commonly used in propagating stem and leaf cuttings to ensure a condition with high relative humidity. cuttings to ensure a condition with high relative humidity.

WindWind Air movement or Air movement or windwind is due to the existence of pressure gradient on a global is due to the existence of pressure gradient on a global

or local scale caused by differences in heating. On a global scale it consists of or local scale caused by differences in heating. On a global scale it consists of the jet stream flow and movement of large air masses. On the local scale only the jet stream flow and movement of large air masses. On the local scale only a smaller quantity of air moves. Surface winds are lower and less turbulent at a smaller quantity of air moves. Surface winds are lower and less turbulent at night due to the absence of solar heating.night due to the absence of solar heating.

When air that is close to the ground cools, it contracts and the pressure rises; When air that is close to the ground cools, it contracts and the pressure rises; when it warms, it expands and loses pressure. Where both cold and warm air when it warms, it expands and loses pressure. Where both cold and warm air occur in proximity, as over a lake and its adjacent shore, the cold flows to the occur in proximity, as over a lake and its adjacent shore, the cold flows to the direction of the warm air or from high to low pressure area to correct the direction of the warm air or from high to low pressure area to correct the pressure imbalance. This also happens in tropical Asia but in a larger and more pressure imbalance. This also happens in tropical Asia but in a larger and more complex way, as the complex way, as the monsoonmonsoon winds. winds.

This climatic factor serves as a vector of pollen from one flower to another thus This climatic factor serves as a vector of pollen from one flower to another thus aiding in the process of pollination. It is therefore essential in the development aiding in the process of pollination. It is therefore essential in the development of fruit and seed from wind-pollinated flowers as in many grasses. of fruit and seed from wind-pollinated flowers as in many grasses.

Moderate winds favor gas exchanges, but strong winds can cause excessive Moderate winds favor gas exchanges, but strong winds can cause excessive water loss through transpiration as well as lodging or toppling of plants. When water loss through transpiration as well as lodging or toppling of plants. When transpiration rate exceeds that of water absorption, partial or complete closure transpiration rate exceeds that of water absorption, partial or complete closure of the stomata may ensue which will restrict the diffusion of carbon dioxide into of the stomata may ensue which will restrict the diffusion of carbon dioxide into the leaves. As a result, there will be a decrease in the rate of photosynthesis, the leaves. As a result, there will be a decrease in the rate of photosynthesis, growth and yield .Each of the above discussed climatic factors has been shown growth and yield .Each of the above discussed climatic factors has been shown to produce limiting effects on various growth processes. However, the various to produce limiting effects on various growth processes. However, the various climatic factors always operate together and interact with each other under climatic factors always operate together and interact with each other under natural conditions. natural conditions.

Changing Climatic TrendsChanging Climatic Trends

Increasing concentration of COIncreasing concentration of CO2 2 in the atmospherein the atmosphere

Pre-industrial revolution (1789)Pre-industrial revolution (1789) 280 ppm280 ppm Present (2004)Present (2004) 380 ppm380 ppm Expected level (2050)Expected level (2050) 550 ppm550 ppm

Rising surface temperaturesRising surface temperatures Global Av. Temp. rise (20Global Av. Temp. rise (20thth century) century) 0.6 °C0.6 °C Projections for 2100Projections for 2100 1.4 to 5.8 °C1.4 to 5.8 °C

Changing rainfall patternsChanging rainfall patterns

So in what ways is agriculture part of So in what ways is agriculture part of the problem?the problem?

COCO22:: pastoral farms emit COpastoral farms emit CO22 – more meat is being – more meat is being

consumed in MICs, so more pigs, poultry and cattle are consumed in MICs, so more pigs, poultry and cattle are being reared, so more CObeing reared, so more CO22. More machinery powered by . More machinery powered by

fossil fuels are being used as farm production becomes fossil fuels are being used as farm production becomes mechanised, e.g. huge combine harvestersmechanised, e.g. huge combine harvesters

MethaneMethane: : cows in particular give out a lot of methane, but cows in particular give out a lot of methane, but so do rice paddy fields. Other material left to rot will also so do rice paddy fields. Other material left to rot will also produce methane produce methane

Nitrous oxideNitrous oxide: : results from the breakdown of both organic results from the breakdown of both organic (manure) and inorganic (oil based) fertilizer.(manure) and inorganic (oil based) fertilizer.

Projections of IPCC for South AsiaProjections of IPCC for South Asia

Increase in surface temperature will contribute Increase in surface temperature will contribute to snowmelt resulting in risk of floodsto snowmelt resulting in risk of floods

Indus river inflows will decrease by 27% by the Indus river inflows will decrease by 27% by the year 2050year 2050

Land degradation will cause land to shrink Land degradation will cause land to shrink from present 0.8 ha per capita to 0.3 by 2010from present 0.8 ha per capita to 0.3 by 2010

Areas in mid and high latitudes will experience Areas in mid and high latitudes will experience increase in crop yield whereas in lower increase in crop yield whereas in lower latitudes will experience a general decrease, latitudes will experience a general decrease, under elevated COunder elevated CO2 2 conditions conditions

Semi-arid areasSemi-arid areas

Crop models showed that increase in temperature of Crop models showed that increase in temperature of 0.9 and 1.80.9 and 1.8°°C resulted in reduction in length of wheat C resulted in reduction in length of wheat growing season by 4 and 8 days respectively growing season by 4 and 8 days respectively

At 0.9At 0.9°°C increase in temperature, wheat grain yield C increase in temperature, wheat grain yield increased by 2.5% whereas at 1.8increased by 2.5% whereas at 1.8°°C increase, the grain C increase, the grain yield decreased by 4%yield decreased by 4%

The increase in temp. would reduce the productivity of The increase in temp. would reduce the productivity of rice crop due to heat stress and reduction in growing rice crop due to heat stress and reduction in growing season lengthseason length

Arid areasArid areas

Crop modeling studies showed a non Crop modeling studies showed a non significant trend in wheat yields under significant trend in wheat yields under increased temperature scenarios (0.9increased temperature scenarios (0.9°°C C and 1.8and 1.8°°C) C)

Wheat straw yields were reduced by 7% Wheat straw yields were reduced by 7% and 12% with temperature increases of and 12% with temperature increases of 0.90.9°°C by 2020 and 1.8C by 2020 and 1.8°°C by 2050C by 2050

Impacts on Food ProductionImpacts on Food Production

Due to Increasing TemperaturesDue to Increasing Temperatures

Shift in spatial crop boundaries will have Shift in spatial crop boundaries will have enormous economic and social impact. enormous economic and social impact.

e.g. Rice transplantation, Cotton picking etc.e.g. Rice transplantation, Cotton picking etc.

Increase/decrease in crop yields Increase/decrease in crop yields

Rise in evapotranspiration rates, calling for Rise in evapotranspiration rates, calling for greater efficiency of water use greater efficiency of water use

Shift in timing of developmental stages of Shift in timing of developmental stages of pests in Crop-weed-pest relationshipspests in Crop-weed-pest relationships

Extreme Weather EventsExtreme Weather Events In addition to changing climate, In addition to changing climate,

increased variability in weather may increased variability in weather may occur with consequent frequent extreme occur with consequent frequent extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, events such as heat waves, droughts, wind storms and floods having negative wind storms and floods having negative impacts on agricultureimpacts on agriculture

Effect of water suppliesEffect of water supplies

Decreased Surface Water SuppliesDecreased Surface Water Supplies Reduction in yield and quality of crops Reduction in yield and quality of crops

due to water stress during critical due to water stress during critical growth stages growth stages

Shift in cropping patternsShift in cropping patterns Nitrogen volatilization losses from Nitrogen volatilization losses from

ammonical fertilizersammonical fertilizers

Due to Change in Precipitation Due to Change in Precipitation PatternPattern More dependency on ground water in the More dependency on ground water in the

face of low precipitationface of low precipitation– danger of depletion of aquifer due to danger of depletion of aquifer due to

injudicious pumpinginjudicious pumping– increased cost of cultivationincreased cost of cultivation

– soil salinization due to poor quality ground soil salinization due to poor quality ground waterwater

b) Increased Water Suppliesb) Increased Water Supplies

Potential development of Water logging and Potential development of Water logging and Salinity/SodicitySalinity/Sodicity

Denitrification losses from ammonical Denitrification losses from ammonical and and nitrate based fertilizersnitrate based fertilizers

Shift in cropping patternsShift in cropping patterns

Increased incidence of plant diseasesIncreased incidence of plant diseases

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

Climate change may have beneficial as well as detrimental consequences for agriculture.

A warming climate and decreasing soil moisture can also result in increasing need for irrigation.

Benefits to agriculture might be offset by an increased likelihood of heat waves, drought, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

With the virtually certain likelihood of warmer and more frequent hot days and nights, there are projected to be increased insect outbreaks impacting agriculture, forestry and ecosystems. (IPCC )

PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE- STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGES

Strong strides made in increasing the production in the past 50 years, mainly due to adoption of HYVs and other technological developments

Subsistence agriculture with small land holdings Wide variation in regional productivities Majority still depend on rain-fed agriculture Frequently affected by extreme weather events such

as droughts and cyclones Significant proportion of population still reels under

poverty, mal-nutrition and chronic hunger

The Agricultural Research Institute (ARI) examined The Agricultural Research Institute (ARI) examined the vulnerability of agricultural production to the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change, with the objective of determining climate change, with the objective of determining differences in climate factors impacts on agriculture differences in climate factors impacts on agriculture by region and by crop.by region and by crop.

The study found that increases in temperature (by The study found that increases in temperature (by about 2ºC) reduced potential grain yields in most about 2ºC) reduced potential grain yields in most places.places.

Reductions in yields as a result of climate factors are Reductions in yields as a result of climate factors are predicted to be more pronounced for rain fed crops predicted to be more pronounced for rain fed crops (as opposed to irrigated crops) and under limited (as opposed to irrigated crops) and under limited water supply situations because there are no coping water supply situations because there are no coping mechanisms for rainfall variability.mechanisms for rainfall variability.

Effect of Climate factor on Soybean

According to studies, soybean yields could go up by as much as 50 per cent if the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles.If this increase in carbon dioxide is accompanied by an increase in temperature, as expected, then soybean yields could actually decrease. If the maximum and minimum temperatures go up by 1°C and 1.5°C respectively, the gain in yield comes down to 35 per cent.

Potential Impact of Climate factor on Rice Production in Pakistan

Overall, temperature increases are predicted to reduce rice yields. An increase of 2-4ºC is predicted to result in a reduction in yields.

Although additional CO2 can benefit crops, this effect was nullified by an increase of temperature.

It is rainfall change that will have more effect.It is rainfall change that will have more effect.Those area that become drier will be unable to grow as much Those area that become drier will be unable to grow as much without irrigation – and currently, much irrigation practice without irrigation – and currently, much irrigation practice is highly wasteful and can bring long-term damage to the soil.is highly wasteful and can bring long-term damage to the soil.Extreme events are another cause of concern – unusually Extreme events are another cause of concern – unusually heavy storms or unexpectedly long periods without heavy storms or unexpectedly long periods without precipitation or unexpected heat-waves.precipitation or unexpected heat-waves.These all give challenges to agriculture that reduced the These all give challenges to agriculture that reduced the production temporarily – challenges the idea of food security.production temporarily – challenges the idea of food security.Then global warming causes icecap and glacier melt that Then global warming causes icecap and glacier melt that create rising sea levels and loss of good agricultural land to create rising sea levels and loss of good agricultural land to salt marsh.salt marsh.

While temperature rise is what While temperature rise is what we hear about….we hear about….

What the regional needs areWhat the regional needs are

Climate information systems in place (Systems to enhance Climate information systems in place (Systems to enhance climate predictability) climate predictability)

Water management technologies adopted (Improvements in Water management technologies adopted (Improvements in water collection, drainage, irrigation distribution systems, water collection, drainage, irrigation distribution systems, maximize use of water in livestock production, etc.) maximize use of water in livestock production, etc.)

Better integrated management of natural resources and Better integrated management of natural resources and production systems (this includes water management, production systems (this includes water management, conservation agriculture, crop and pasture rotations, conservation agriculture, crop and pasture rotations, adjustment of planting dates, etc.)adjustment of planting dates, etc.)

Technological innovations to reduce climatic risks Technological innovations to reduce climatic risks (biotechnology innovations to improve drought resistance (biotechnology innovations to improve drought resistance and pests and disease resistance, invasive species, and and pests and disease resistance, invasive species, and improvements in irrigation infrastructure).improvements in irrigation infrastructure).

Institutional innovations with capacity built for early Institutional innovations with capacity built for early warning systems for climate (improved policy and regulatory warning systems for climate (improved policy and regulatory frameworks for water frameworks for water management, agricultural and management, agricultural and catastrophic risk insurance, etc.).catastrophic risk insurance, etc.).

Bottom-up participatory processes for climate change Bottom-up participatory processes for climate change adaptation and reduce threats to climate variability. adaptation and reduce threats to climate variability.

CONCULSI0NCONCULSI0N

The climate change will have impact on agriculture, and agriculture is the livelihood and most of the Indian population is dependent on it. The country should set up a National Food Security Board, to be headed by the Prime Minister, and establish at least 50 huge modern storages to build stocks of food grains to counter any emergency.  He finally stressed the adoption of alternative crops to suit different weather models, a strategy that may help immensely in times of poor monsoon.