201507

104 12

(CTCI Foundation) 1959 10 12

1979

2006

/ 106 97 8

/ 886-2-2704-9805

/ 886-2-2705-5044

/ www.ctci.org.tw

ISBN978-986-92691-3-1

http://www.ctci.org.tw/

I

2006

2015

2013

2015-07

II

(1)

(2)

................................................................................. 1-1

.............................................................................. 1-1 ................................ 1-6 .......................... 1-13

.......................................... 2-1

....................................... 2-1 ........................................... 2-5 .............. 2-10 .................. 2-25 .......................... 2-31

................................ 3-1

.................... 3-1 ........................................................... 3-5 ......................................................... 3-27 ................................................................ 3-37

.................................................................................. 4-1

......................................................................................... R-1

...................................................................... A-1

..........................................................................A-3 ......................................... A-11

1-1

2014

1776

The Wealth of Nations(Smith, 1776)

1982 62

1991

(Proclamation on Ageing)1994

Cairo Consensus

Global Population Prospects

2015 The 2015 Ageing report

1946~1963

120 1 18 610

1,195 1951 7.04

1 1956 928,279 27 1201970 11 12

1-2

1964 3

1971

1984 2.1 2003 1.23

2008 1

65

7%14% 20%

(Moodys Investor Service)

2015

1993 65

7% 2014 65 12%

2018

7

2013

18107232

2015

2060 18

1-3

25 35 44

4 55

2013 65 8.3%

31.4% 23.8% 20.5%18.7%

65 2013

57.4

2008

2011 4.02012

20132015 3.0

2015 2025 2015

2015 9 4.0

1-4

1.1-1

1.1-1

2016 2060

18

()

1-5

(2)()

1-6

Bloom et al., 2007total fertility rate, TFR2

1.2-1

=100

1960 10,729 5,525 5,267 104.9 5.750 62.31 66.40 17.6 1970 14,754 7,733 6,981 111.3 4.000 66.66 71.56 19.3 1980 17,866 9,320 8,546 109.1 2.515 69.57 74.55 23.1 1990 20,401 10,541 9,861 106.9 1.810 71.33 76.75 27.5 2000 22,277 11,392 10,885 104.7 1.680 73.83 79.56 32.1 2007 22,958 11,609 11,350 102.3 1.100 75.46 81.72 35.7 2008 23,037 11,626 11,411 101.9 1.050 75.59 81.94 36.2 2009 23,120 11,637 11,483 101.3 1.030 76.03 82.34 36.8 2010 23,162 11,635 11,527 100.9 0.895 76.13 82.55 37.4 2011 23,225 11,646 11,643 100.6 1.065 75.96 82.63 38.0 2012 23,316 11,673 11,643 100.3 1.270 76.43 82.82 38.4 2013 23,374 11,685 11,683 100.0 1.065 76.69 83.25 38.9 103

150

1960 2013 1,073 2,337

15-64 562 52.07% 1,733

2 Total Fertility RateTFR15 49

1-7

74.15%3 92.03% 34.85%

1.2-1 1.2-2

gross domestic product,

GDP4 163 5,943 21,902 652,020

1.2-2

103

150

1975 1.77 1.64 1.34 1.71

1.68 1.71 1.51 1.42 1.36 1.19

1.17 1.26 1.08

1990

2 1

1.2-3

3 14 15 6465 15 64 4 2014 11 1981

1-8

1.2-3

103

150 1 1990 2 1990 France metropolitan

2.1

Lee et al.2014Science

40 2.56

40 2.05

1.24 1.54

1.852.15 1.43 1.705

1984

2010

0.895 2012 1.27

1 2007

5 Nicole Lai

1-9

1.1

1964 2012

5.1003.0851.8551.6801.270

6 1960 62.31 2013

76.69 2.66 1960

66.40 2013 83.25 3.12

1960 17.6 2013 38.9 1.2-1

1993 7%World Health Organization, WHO

ageing society7 2013 11.53%

14%aged society8

2013 15.55% 80.51% 1.2-2

2007 2013

2.16 92007 2013

3.07%

103 15010

6 X X 7 65 7%aging society 14%aged society 20%hyper-aged society 8 15 65 9

10 2

1-10

11 2019

2019 2026 2,350 2360

2060 1,660 1,930 2014

70%~82%

Lee-Carter Coale-Kisker

2013 76.69 83.25

2060 81.0 87.7 4.3 4.5

2018 14.64% 14%

2025 20.09% 20%2060

65 454 15-15-65

170 831 40.56%

1.2-1

25

7

1.2-4

1.2-5

11

1-11

103 150

1.2-1

1.2-4

103 150 ** 1

1-12

1.2-5 2060

58.6 1 40.6% 1 468.5 1 79.7% 2 54.6 39.9% 437.8 78.4% 57.9 2 40.1% 2 394.0 2 80.6% 1 41.1 21.9% 123.6 36.3% 42.6 24.8% 144.1 42.7% 50.1 32.3% 246.3 59.2% 42.8 24.8% 144.0 42.9% 42.5 23.3% 136.0 38.8% 42.2 24.2% 138.4 41.4% 45.8 27.4% 179.7 47.7% 44.6 26.0% 168.4 44.4% 47.3 28.8% 205.0 50.4% 48.7 30.0% 222.4 53.1% 47.8 30.3% 225.0 53.7% 103 150

1-13

12

70

8090

2000

2011

(American Transportation Research Institute, ATRI) 2015 6

49%

45~64 1994 29% 20%

1-14

2015 9

4.0

4.0

Seimens

4.0

2001

Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, DCDC

Strategic Trends Programme 30 30

1-15

2014 2045

10

megatrend

1.3-1

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)

(6)(7)

1-16

1.3-1

(PwC)

(Ernst & Young)

(KPMG) (EU)

(WEF)

/ 5 megatrends2015

Megatrends 2015 Making sense of a world in motion2015

Future State 20302014

Assessment of global megatrends - an update2015

Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015 - Top 10

trends2015

?

Price Waterhouse Coopers (2015); Ernst & Young (2015); KPMG (2015); European Union (2015); World Economic Forum (2015)

1-17

4.0

1.

2.

3.

4.

2008

2011 AMP 2012

4.0

1.3-2

Internet of

Things, IoTBig DataCyber Physical System,

CPS

2015 9 4.0

1-18

4.0/

/

1-19

1.3-2

2011 AMP 2013 4.0 2012

3.02014 20252015

123

2012

4.02014 6

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Cyber Physical System, CPS

IT

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2017 2.4

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2015 35012 100

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2011 AMP 2013 4.0 2012

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CPS

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2017

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2045

1.

2.

1. 2. 3.

Cyber Physical System, CPS

Internet of Things

Internet of Services

3D

1.

2.

1-21

2011 AMP 2013 4.0 2012

3.02014 20252015

(2013); Japan Government (2014); (2015); (2015); (2015)

2-1

derived demand

OECD

200055~6455%

123

OECD123

4

2006

OECD, 20061

23

2011 2006

2013Working Better with Age 2015 10

2016

2-2

10 OECD

2.1-1 OECD 2015 55~64

58% 32.1% 83.6%

2-3

OECD (2015), Aging and Employment Policies, http://www.oecd.org/employment/ageingandemploymentpolicies.htm

2.1-1 2015 OECD 55~64

2-4

2014 2 75 65 -

(The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2014) 480

SHRM1 2014 1,715

6%

36%

20%

19%

13%

6%

5%

2%

1 Society for Human Resource Management, SHRM 1948 160 27.5

2-5

labor force participation rate2

2014 58.54% 2.2-1

2.2-1 %

2005 57.8 60.9 60.5 62.0 65.0 66.0 67.1 58.4 62.3 56.4 2013 58.4 61.2 59.3 61.5 66.7 63.3 66.5 60.1 62.6 56.5 2014 58.5 - 59.5 62.4 67.0 62.9 66.0 - - -

2.2-2 %%%

1980 58.26 77.11 39.25 37.86 1990 59.24 73.96 44.50 29.46 2000 57.68 69.42 46.02 23.40 2010 58.07 66.51 49.89 16.62 2014 58.54 66.78 50.64 16.14

2.2-2

1980 77.11% 2014 66.78%

1980 39.25% 2014 50.64%

2 15 15 labor force

2-6

37.86 16.14

57.23%2001 2.2-2 ~60.93%1987 2.1-2

1994~2014 20

15-19 20-24

1994

20.21% 63.88% 2014 7.98% 51.35%

25 44

20-24 1992 25-29 1992

2.2-1

2.2-1 1993-2013

2-7

2012

50

2.2-2

2.2-2 2012

2-8

103

2014 45 227 3

57.8 65

103 4564

2014 2004~2014

5559 6064

54.4%35.6% 7 5 5

2014 75.06% 48.69%

26.37% 10

2004 6.66% 3.04%

2014

4549 80.21%5054 69.63%5559 54.41%6064

35.61% 10 45~59

5.3%~5.8% 60~64

35.61%

10

2013~2014

2014

22.78%16.42%9.95%

7.70%6.71%

63.5%

2014 40.73%

19.97%

2-9

66.72%

2004 55%

12

34

2-10

2011

15

24

25 49

2011

2014

2014

20 3.3

12.9%

1 2.0%

2-11

2.3-1

2.3-1 45 64

2009

2015

2-12

Parsons1980

Social Security

Haveman 1991

1960

20%

2014

25 55

15 60 10

45~50

90

30

45 15 15

30

30

2015

94 7 1

2-13

18%

1987

2013 55~64

39.6 23.3

18.1 17.1

2.3-1

2-14

2.3-1 55~64

2013 74.4% 55~64

53.7% 2009

6.6 9.0 65 51.9%

2009 5.5

2014

13

2011

2-15

2005

1992

2006

Zunker 1994

employability

2006

123

42009

1.

2.

3.

4.

(WHO, 2001)12

34 30

2-16

12

3 Sentorimotor45

2.3-2

2.3-2

Czaja and Moen (2004)

1234

5 5

2.3-3

Sensorimotor

proprioception

2-17

2.3-3

: Sara J. Czaja and Phyllis Moen, 2004, Technology for Adaptive Aging Technology and Employment, the national academies press,

2-18

2.3-4

50

2-19

2.3-4

/ Hale 1990 1995

AARP 2005 2006

Transamerica2014 SHRM 2014

50

50

87%

86%

82%

69%

77%

71%

70%

63% 59% 52% 52%

52% /

51%

Hale (1990); (1995); AARP (2005); Transamerica (2014); SHRM (2014),

2-20

2012AARP/SHRM (AARP, 2012)

50

8 182%2

77%380%

AARP 2013 45~74

(AARP, 2013)1

92%291%3(88%)

50

50

Department for Work & Pensions, DWP 2013

-(DWP, 2013)

2-21

succession

management

103

1

234

(Harvard Business Review) 2014 4 Four

Ways to Adapt to an Aging Workforce

10

1.

(1) Scripped Health

(2) WellStar Health System 10

2-22

2.

(1) Vodafone

(2) Vita Needledoes

(3) Home Depot

(4) Boston College

3.

(1) Migros Geneva 58

(2) Marriott

32 5

(3)

4.

(1) BMW

(2) Unilever

1. B&Q 6

39%

18%

2. BMW 7%

2-23

3. Unilevel 6

3AARP 2016

50 SHRM

2003 50 Best Employer award for

Workers over 50123

45

6

2015

50 2.3-5

3 65 50 25% AARP 3,500

2-24

2.3-5

1 70%

98%

94% 74%

2

95% 50

53%504 401K

96% 83%

3 72% 50

94% 100%

4 60% 50

60% 44%

5 19% 50

38%

AARP, 2013, What matters to old workers, http://blog.aarp.org/2013/06/28/what-matters-to-older-workers

4 401k 1981 401k 401k401k

401k

http://blog.aarp.org/2013/06/28/what-matters-to-older-workers

2-25

=

=

CobbDouglas

Y = AAHicks neutral technological change

total factor productivity, TFP

1

=

= = 1 = (

)

=

2-26

=

+

=

+

= (

+

) +

103 150

15 64

2015 1,737

2060 904 45-64

48.8% 2.4-1

2.4-1 15

15-65+

65+ 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

2014 20159 17347 3131 3559 3778 3717 3161 2812 2021 20682 16690 2538 3221 3797 3599 3534 3992 2031 20686 14914 1986 2549 3221 3710 3448 5772 2041 19933 13057 1779 2002 2558 3153 3565 6876 2051 18427 10914 1549 1798 2021 2508 3037 7513 2061 16415 9040 1242 1571 1820 1988 2420 7375

103 150

103

150

103 150

2-27

2.4-2

2.4-2 %

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

1981 61.37 50.94 68.73 71.37 67.31 49.87 1991 63.95 42.63 76.33 76.80 68.83 49.20 2001 63.56 35.47 80.67 78.81 68.81 41.82 2011 65.64 28.57 87.53 83.52 72.65 43.60 2014 66.58 29.36 89.73 84.11 74.89 45.87

2014 25-34 35-44 45-54

15-24 55-64 2011 2003

41.44% 2014

ceiling

2.4-3

2.4-1

2.4-3 %

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

2014 66.58 29.36 89.73 84.11 74.89 45.87 2021 67.18 30.00 90.00 85.00 75.00 46.00 2031 67.86 31.00 90.00 86.00 76.00 47.00 2041 66.90 32.00 90.00 87.00 77.00 48.00 2051 67.37 33.00 90.00 88.00 78.00 49.00 2061 68.99 34.00 90.00 89.00 79.00 50.00

natural unemployment ratefrictional unemployment rate

structural unemployment rate2000

2.4-12014

5Liang et al, 2015

5 94 7 1

http://wiki.mbalib.com/zh-tw/%E6%91%A9%E6%93%A6%E6%80%A7%E5%A4%B1%E4%B8%9Ahttp://wiki.mbalib.com/zh-tw/%E7%BB%93%E6%9E%84%E6%80%A7%E5%A4%B1%E4%B8%9A

2-28

2014

2015-2061 4%

2.4-1

2015 1989

1992

2014 55

60 2.5%

5.3% 3Ddangerous, difficult, dirty

2.4-4

2015-2061

2014 55.2

chained value

labor productivity

2.4-5

2004-2014 3.87%

1.67(1978)

1.23(1980) 1.45(1993)

5.17(2002)

3.91(2006)

5.85(2009)

3.96(2014)

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

19

78

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14

2-29

1.42% 1.25%

2.41%

2.4-4

80 2,999 2,999 0 0 0 2,999 2,999 0 0 0 85 236,555 206,300 1,384 162,482 28,891 42,434 39,696 30,255 16,308 13,947 90 304,605 191,671 1,249 157,055 61,258 33,367 29,619 112,934 103,780 9,154 95 338,755 184,970 3,322 169,903 83,993 11,745 5,884 153,785 151,391 2,394

100 425,660 227,806 8,670 215,271 29,348 3,865 3,313 197,854 195,726 2,128 103 551,596 331,585 10,316 316,409 2,609 4,860 4,318 220,011 217,858 2,153 http://statdb.mol.gov.tw/statis/jspProxy.aspx?sys=100

2.4-5

GDP

% / %

2004 10,600,793 6.51% 9,786 314,034 10,100 1049.58 4.11% 2014 15,496,845 3.77% 11,079 551,596 11,631 1332.42 2.21%

3.87% 1.25% 5.79% 1.42% 2.41% 3.80% 1.24% 5.63% 1.41% 2.39%

baseline value2014-2021

1.75%

2051-61 0.95% 2.4-6

1. 15 2.4-1

2. 4%

3. 2.5-3

4. 551,596

5. 2.41%

2-30

2.4-6 2014-61

15 GDP

/ 2014 20159 11,297 447 11,631 1332.42 15,496,845

2014-21 0.37% 0.34% 0.50% 0.04% 2.41% 1.75% 2021 20682 11,572 463 11,661 1574.63 17,492,667

2021-31 0.00% -0.81% -0.81% -0.77% 2.41% 1.59% 2031 20686 10,669 427 10,793 1998.96 20,472,574

2031-41 -0.37% -1.23% -1.24% -1.17% 2.41% 1.15% 2041 19933 9,423 377 9,598 2537.65 22,956,111

2041-51 -0.78% -1.45% -1.44% -1.36% 2.41% 0.93% 2051 18427 8,141 326 8,367 3221.49 25,177,367

2051-61 -1.15% -1.43% -1.44% -1.33% 2.41% 0.95% 2061 16415 7,048 282 7,317 4089.62 27,669,691

2014 2021-2061 15 2.4-1 2.4-3 4%551,596 2.41%

1%2% 3%

2.4-7 2%

2021 19.58

3%

99.48

2015 06 02 147

2020

2.4-7 2014-61

GDP

GDP GDP 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3%

2021 17,493 16,615 17,801 19,059 -878 308 1,566 -558 196 995 2031 20,473 18,353 21,699 25,614 -2,120 1,227 5,141 -1,060 614 2,572 2041 22,956 20,273 26,451 34,423 -2,683 3,495 11,467 -1,057 1,377 4,519 2051 25,177 22,394 32,244 46,262 -2,783 7,067 21,084 -864 2,194 6,545 2061 27,670 24,737 39,305 62,172 -2,933 11,636 34,502 -717 2,845 8,436

2-31

3% 2021 2.96%

2.5-1

2.5-1 GDP

GDP 1% GDP 2% GDP 3%

2014-21 0.96% 1.96% 2.96% 2021-31 1.44% 2.45% 3.45% 2031-41 1.72% 2.73% 3.74% 2041-51 1.90% 2.91% 3.92% 2051-61 2.00% 3.01% 4.02%

Liang et al.2015

1982-2013 2.96%

2-32

Liang et al.2015

1982-2013

1982-2013

2007-2013 0.59%

2007-2013 2.05%

1990-2007 2.5-2

2007-2013

2007-2013 4.03%

1990-1999 1999-2007 0.48% 3.00%

2007-2013

0.25% 2007 2.5-3

1988-1992 1996

1990-1999

2.5-4

2.5-2 1982-2013 %

GDP K L TFP

1982-1990 8.14 4.80 4.99 3.05 1990-1999 6.26 6.93 4.65 0.54 1999-2007 4.76 3.46 3.98 1.01 2007-2013 3.72 0.59 2.76 2.05

1982-1990 100 26 34 40 1990-1999 100 52 39 9 1999-2007 100 39 39 22 2007-2013 100 8 36 56

Liang et al.2015

2-33

2.5-3 1982-2013 %

GDP K L TFP

1990-1999 4.95 10.75 0.84 0.48 1999-2007 7.67 7.28 1.96 3.00 2007-2013 5.02 0.25 1.68 4.03

1990-1999 100 82 11 7 1999-2007 100 47 13 40 2007-2013 100 3 15 82

Liang et al.2015

2.5-4 1982-2013 %

GDP K L TFP

1990-1999 8.59 8.79 4.28 1.63 1999-2007 4.31 2.57 1.34 2.24 2007-2013 2.07 1.56 1.69 0.44

1990-1999 100 57 22 21 1999-2007 100 32 14 53 2007-2013 100 39 39 22

Liang et al.2015

2.5-5

creative destruction

free

trade agreement, FTA

2-34

2.5-5

/APP Store////

//

//3D Printing /

Autonomy

/Precision Agriculture/Vertical Farming

/

Contour Crafting

// APP//Bioprinting

/

//

//

/

/CGI/

//3D Printing //

//

//

//

World Health Organization, WHO

active ageing

2-35

Sanderson and Scherbov

2010 65

life expectancyadult disability

/

2013 45 929.1

46%426.3 54%502.8

102

45 22.55

200.29 11.3%

24.9%22.7%

47.6%

2.5-6

2.5-6 2013

25 579167 41667 61410 89452 214642 62400 76059 33537 25 35 845325 128474 164676 131129 155491 97390 119600 48565 35 45 352869 41230 43587 30233 79912 42618 70968 44321 45 225523 20036 16940 12244 56087 33079 35890 51247

% 25 100.0% 7.2% 10.6% 15.4% 37.1% 10.8% 13.1% 5.8% 25 35 100.0% 15.2% 19.5% 15.5% 18.4% 11.5% 14.1% 5.7% 35 45 100.0% 11.7% 12.4% 8.6% 22.6% 12.1% 20.1% 12.6% 45 100.0% 8.9% 7.5% 5.4% 24.9% 14.7% 15.9% 22.7%

2-36

45-64

41.75% 31.31% 65

82.18% 2.5-1

65 39%45

77% 2.5-7

2.5-1 2013

6

2008

100

2.5-8 58.34% 6 5 1

2-37

28.86% 2.5-9

2.5-7 2013

15-24 25-44 45-64 65 4961 254 3097 1570 43 2166 277 1022 808 59 492 8 105 286 94 3459 236 1761 1420 42

100% 5% 62% 32% 1% 100% 13% 47% 37% 3% 100% 2% 21% 58% 19% 100% 7% 51% 41% 1%

45% 33% 52% 38% 18% 20% 36% 17% 20% 25% 4% 1% 2% 7% 39% 31% 30% 29% 35% 18%

2.5-8 45100

100

2-38

2.5-9 45100

100

103 2.5-10

71.5

88.8

2.5-10 45~64

%

103

2-39

65

1.

OECD

2014

2.

2-40

1991

300

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3.

2008

35%

2014

4.

2007

54.4%

39.8%17.5%14.9%

9.67%

5.

2014

2-41

2008

1/2~2/3

2006

6.

2013 enterprise

training support, ETSorkPro

7.

115

2016 7

50

60

2014

8.

7

http://www.cnfi.org.tw/wto/all-news.php?id=25639&t_type=s

http://www.cnfi.org.tw/wto/all-news.php?id=25639&t_type=s

2-42

Silver

Human Resources Centres, SHRC 60

12/3

456/

/

2.5-11

1.

2.

2-43

3.

4.

2-44

2.5-11

/ /

/

/

2-45

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

2-46

/

3-1

2011

12

34

567

IEK

2014

3.1-1

3-2

3.1-2

3.1-1

-

3.1-2

2001

39 2025 133

282001

10.92 2025 37.38 2001

3-3

246 2025 1,089

2003

27

3.1-1

30-39 590 628

60-69 445

2,385

27

3.1-1

10265

43.9%

36.2% 19.6%50 64

39.6%

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65 12,875 6,00011,999

28.5% 5,999 23.3%

3-4

3-5

2014

1.1 2013 6.9%

20082014 2,620Compound

Annual Growth Rate, CAGR 4.9%

IMS Health 2014-2018

2,230-2,530 2018 1.28-1.31

2015

GDP

20143991.9GDP17.3%

6.8%2014

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