EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005Slide 1 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite &...
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Transcript of EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005Slide 1 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite &...
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 1GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
GEMS:Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
GMES Integrated Project, 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries
Coordinator A.Hollingsworth (ECMWF)
Projects Leadership
Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) M.Heimann, (D)
Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D), C.Granier (F)
Aerosol O.Boucher (UK) H.Feichter (D)
Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F)
Validation H.Eskes (NL)
Global Production System A.Simmons, H.Boettger, (ECMWF),
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 2GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Broad Motivations for GEMS• 18,000 excess deaths in summer 2003 showed that Europe lacks
operational capabilities to provide adequate medium-range (3-7 day) warnings and adequate short-range (1-3 day) forecasts for such natural disasters.
• The GEMS project will create a new European operational system • to monitor atmospheric chemistry and dynamics
• to produce improved medium-range & short-range air-chemistry forecasts,
• The operational forecast capabilities will involve • global and regional data assimilation systems exploiting satellite & in-situ
data, to provide initial data (‘status assessments’) for the forecasts.
• sophisticated operational forecast models,
• The operational ‘status assessments’ are accurate syntheses of all data. They will be used to document sources, sinks and transports of atmospheric trace constituents, for many purposes including monitoring
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 3GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Evolution of forecast skill for northern and southern hemispheres 1981-2002
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 4GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Objectives of GEMS (i): A Global Operational System for monitoring & forecasting Atmospheric Composition
• Develop and implement by 2009 a validated, comprehensive, and operational global data assimilation / forecast system for atmospheric composition and dynamics,
• combine remotely sensed and in-situ data
• Monitor tropospheric & stratospheric atmospheric composition
• Operational deliverables will include current and forecast three-dimensional global distributions (four times daily with a horizontal resolution of 50km, and vertical resolution of 60 levels between the surface and 65km) of key atmospheric trace constituents including
• greenhouse gases (initially including CO2, and progressively adding CH4,
N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy),
• reactive gases (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually
widening the suite of species),
• aerosols (initially a 10-parameter representation, widening later to ~ 30)
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 5GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Objectives of GEMS (ii): Regional Air-Quality Forecasts,
Retrospective Analyses, Treaty Assessment &
Validation• Provide initial and boundary conditions for operational regional air-
quality and ‘chemical weather’ forecast systems • improved operational real-time air-quality forecasts• a methodology for assessing the impact of global climate changes on regional
air quality.
• Provide a retrospective analysis of all accessible in-situ and remotely sensed data on atmospheric dynamics and composition for the ENVISAT-EOS era (1999-2007)
• Validation material for the project itself, • A service to the wider science community (inc. GCOS).
• State-of-the-art variational estimates of the sources/sinks, plus inter-continental transports, of many trace gases and aerosols;
• based on the retrospective analyses, and later on operational analyses, • designed to meet policy makers' key information requirements relevant to
the Kyoto and Montreal protocols and to the UN Convention on Long-Range Trans-boundary Air Pollution.
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 6GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Greenhouse Gases: deliverables
• Daily assimilation of all available satellite data (Advanced sounders, OCO, GOSAT) on CO2, CO, CH4, N2O
• Monthly / Seasonal variational inversions of both in-situ (e.g. flask) and satellite data to provide estimates of surface fluxes
• The same technology can be used to estimate surface fluxes of other atmospheric constituents
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 7GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Objectives: REACTIVE-GASES
• Deliverables• Monitor the global 3D / temporal distributions, transports,
sources/sinks of key species such as O3, NO2, SO2, CH2O..
• Forecast Global Chemical Weather, including UV-B • Initial and boundary conditions for regional Chemical
Weather and Air-Quality Forecasts.
• Modelling & Assimilation Approach• Tight coupling of the assimilating weather model (IFS) and
a Chemical Transport Model (CTM ) to maintain good advection, and good chemical profiles.
• Copy frequently (2-hours?) the chemical fields from the assimilating model IFS => CTM (Chemical Transport Model)
• Copy frequently (2-hours?) the Production and Loss rates from CTM => IFS
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 8GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
AEROSOL: Deliberables
• Model and assimilate global aerosol information
• Instruments: MERIS, MODIS x 2, MISR, SEAWIFS, POLDER, then VIIRS on NPP, VIIRS & APM on NPOESS,
• Initially 10 parameters =>30 parameters
• Global Monitoring• Global Forecasts• Boundary info. for Regional models
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 9GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Regional Air Quality Objectives
• Evaluate the impact of the global information on long range transport of pollutants on regional air-quality forecasts.
• Assess the effects of global variability on regional air quality and provide background for policy evaluation and evolution.
• Initiate routine production at, & cooperation between, national air quality forecast centres for data access, skill evaluation & forecast comparisons.
• Improve continental to regional scale air quality models, the statistical post-treatment of forecasts, & explore multi-model ensemble approaches.
• Improve our understanding of the health impacts of air quality and incorporate air quality forecast information into a health forecast.
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 10GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
REGIONAL AIR-QUALITY PARTNERSThe Met Office, Exeter, Great-Britain
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique / Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace/ Laboratoire d'AérologieObservatoire Midi-Pyrénées/ Laboratoire Inter-Universitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques
Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
Finnish Meteorological Institute
Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Service d’Aéronomie
Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, University of Athens
Météo-FranceCentre National de Recherches Météorologiques
ARPA Emilia Romagna, Servizio IdroMeteorologico
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
Meteorologisk Institutt, Oslo
Rheinisches Institut für Umweltforschung Universität Köln
Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
Irish Environmental Protection Agency
Polish Institute of Environmental Protection
Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 11GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Main phases of work at ECMWF
May 05+12
months
Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol; acquire data; build web-site
May 06+12
months
Produce 3 different reanalyses for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol; make them available for validation by all partners; feedback to data providers
May 07 + 6 months
Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; upgrade the models and algorithms based on experiences of trial reanalyse
Nov 07 + 12
months
Build operational system, with operational interfaces to partners Produce unified reanalyses for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol.
Nov 08+ 6 months
Final pre-operational trials; documentation; scientific papers
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 12GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Issues in Transitioning the GEMS project to Operational Status from 2009 onwards.
• The GEMS project intends to be scientifically ready and technically ready to transition the global and regional GEMS systems to operational status by May 2009. New institutional arrangements are needed to
• fund operations, incl. human resources, computing & telecomms.
• fund sustained research support• make and share observations, both real-time and archival• product dissemination, both real-time and archival
• Actors in creating such institutional arrangements include• European Commission, EEA , ESA• National Environment Agencies• Nat.Met.Services, ECMWF, EUMETSAT & EUMETNET• Scientific and technical partners in GEMS, PROMOTE,
and related GMES activities.
• Satellite chemistry provision post 2010 is an issue.
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 13GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Importance for GEMS of real-time and archival access to In-situ observations
• The GEMS project needs (real-time and archival) access to a wide variety of in-situ observations for
• Model development and assessment• Forecast verification• Cross-validation of other observations, esp. satellite
data• Data assimilation• Data monitoring to assess long-loop stability and
performance
• Some key data can be made available with good calibration in real-time
• Some key data need very careful calibration and so archival access is needed
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 14GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Daily Products from GEMS Operational
Both global & regional
Greenhouse Gases
•GHG assimilation products available for research on the Web
Reactive Gases & Aerosol
•Global forecast & assimilation products•Forecast & assimilation products for operational use
by Regional Air quality partners•Daily maps of biomass burning•Forecast & assimilation products available for research on the Web
UV_B Forecast Products
•Forecasts of UV_B exposure. •( ditto for Actinic Flux if there’s interest)
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 15GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Monthly-Seasonal Products from GEMS Operational
Both global & regional
Greenhouse Gases
•Mean distribution maps •Mean horizontal & vertical transports of GHGs•Variational estimates of surface sources / sinks of GHGs •GEOLAND/ONC estimates of surface sources / sinks of GHGs •GCOS-tailored products on atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics, composition
Reactive Gases & Aerosol
•Mean distribution maps •Mean horizontal & vertical transports of reactive gases & aerosol•Variational estimates of surface sources / sinks •Mean maps of biomass burning, and implied sources•GCOS-tailored products
UV_B Forecast Products
•Mean UV_B exposure•(ditto for Actinic flux, if there’s interest)
EEA-EUMETNET workshop April 2005 Slide 17GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ Data A.Hollingsworth
Data Flow and Responsibilities in GEMS GRG
Assimilation System CTMs
Validation data
UserServices
ECMWF
Satellite data
ESAEUMETSATNASADLR…
KNMIECMWFBIRAIUP-UBSA-UPMCNHRFMETEO-FR
MPI-MECMWFKNMIMETEO-FRBIRASA-UPMC
Initial FieldsProduction and Loss rates
FMIDMIMPI-MMETEO-FRKNMI
CNRS-LASA-UPMCDWDNHRFNUIG
RAQModels
MPI-MMETEO-FRKNMI
METEO-FRARPA SIMISACFRIUUKUPMCMPI-M…
GAWNOAANILUMETEO-FRNASA…