Education & Economic Development
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Education & Economic Development HARRY ANTHONY PATRINOS @hpatrinos Jakarta, Indonesia March 2017
Transcript of Education & Economic Development
Education & Economic Development
H A R R Y A N T H O N Y P A T R I N O S@hpatrinos
Jakarta, IndonesiaMarch 2017
Aztec Education in Mexico
Ancient Athens
Gwageo Temple of Literature
Singapore560
550
540
530
520
510
500
490
Hongkong SAR,China
Japan Macao SAR,China
Estonia
Chinese Taipei
Canada FinlandKorea
China
Educational Achievement Pisa 2015: Top 10 performers (averaged scores across science, math reading)
Source: Pisa 2016
Growing Market for Education
6.35.64.52
Education Expenditure ($ trillions)
Source: GSV Advisors 2012
1999 2013 2016 2018
Returns to Investment in Education Low Income Countries (%)
Source: Psacharopoulos, Montenegro, Patrinos 2016
PRIVATE
SOCIAL
25
20
15
10
5
0 Primary Secondary Tertiary
Private Returns to Schooling
Source: Montenegro and Patrinos 2014
20
16
12
8
4
0Primary Secondary University
Returns Higher for Women
20
16
12
8
4
0
11.59.6Men
Women
Source: Montenegro and Patrinos 2014
Benefit-Cost Ratios are High
Source: Education Commission 2016
L O W – I N C O M E U P P E R – M I D D L E I N C O M E
L O W E R – M I D D L E I N C O M E
Earnings + Health Benefits
Earnings + Health Benefits Earnings
+ Health Benefits
Earnings Benefits
Earnings Benefits Earnings
Benefits
Returns to Alternative Investments (%)
Source: Psacharopoulos, Montenegro, Patrinos 2016
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Education
Long term bonds
Bank deposits Stocks
Housing
Invest in People: Invest in the Future
CHILD WITH STUNTED BRAIN DEVELOPMENT
HEALTHY, CARED FOR CHILD
Source: World Bank 2017
Economic Growth
Education
Source: Glaeser 2009
The Race Between Education & Technology
Source: Montenegro and Patrinos 2014
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Higher Education Enrollment Rate
Rate of Return to Higher Education
Source: WEF; Oxford University
47% of Total US Employment at Risk
jobs with the largest total declines
1 Bookkeeping
2 Cooks
3 Postal service mail carriers
4 Executive secretaries
5 Farmworkers
6 Sewing machine operators
7 Tellers
8 Postal service mail sorters…
9 Cutting, punching, machine setters
10 Switchboard operators
11 Molding
12 Computer programmers
12
However
million out of school
million in school but can’t read
youth in developing countries unable to read
1242501in4
However
Source: UNESCO
In most countries, education systems are not providing workers with the skills necessary to compete in today’s job markets
Rising Private Enrolment
Source: EdStats
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
WORLD
Reforms
ATTRACTING GOOD
TEACHERS
AUTONOMY TO PROVIDERS
ASSESSMENT OF STUDENTS
& SCHOOLS
ATTENTION TO EARLY
CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT
(ECD)
ACCOUNTABILITY OF THE SYSTEM
AWARENESS OF CULTURE
Examples from Korea
01 02 03
FUNDAMENTALS:
Basic education firstEMPLOYER-LED TRAINING IN KOREA:
Training at secondary & post-secondary, based on skill needs, employer-led
ENGAGING THE PRIVATE SECTOR WITH PUBLIC FUNDING:
Secondary education
Higher education
Get the Basics Right
Source: Education Commission 2016
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
Attracting good teachers
1
1.1 Poland
Impact of 1999 Education Reform
1.1 Poland
Change in Structure of System
Old
grade age grade0 6 0I 7 III 8 IIIII 9 IIIIV 10 IVV 11 VVI 12 VIVII 13 IVIII 14 II
I 15 IIIII 16 IIII 17 IIIV 18 IIIV 19 IV
Basic vocational schools
Comprehensive lower secondary schools
Profiled general
secondary
Zero class (primary schools or kindergartens)
Comprehensive primary schools
General secondary
schools
Secondary vocational schools
Zero class (primary schools or kindergartens)
Comprehensive primary schools
General secondary
schools
Secondary vocational schools
Basic vocational schools
Matura MaturaMatura Matura Matura
New
1.1 Poland
Reform Timeline
PISA 2006 cohort
Pisa & the reform cohorts
PISA 2003 cohort
PISA 2002 cohort
Old System New System
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
515
510
505
500
495
490
485
480
475
470
465
460
OECD Average
2000 2003 2006
PISA mean score
1.1 Poland
Impressive Gains
Source: Jakubowski et al (2010,2016)
Assessment of students & schools
2
Vietnamese
Mathematics
Non-cognitive skills
IMPACT OF V IETNAM ESCUELA NUEVA AVERAGE EFFECT S IZE
0.15910.18120.4121
2.1 Vietnam
Escuela Nueva Impact Evaluation — Strong effect on achievement
Source: Source: World Bank (2016, 2017)
2.1 Vietnam
Increase the Productivity of Schooling
Causal effect of a year of schooling
Source: Singh 2015
Vietnam:
0.78 SD
Compare to no more than
0.4 SD
in Other Countries
2.1 Vietnam
Bucking the Income Trend
Source: World Bank 2017
Accountability of the system
3
3.1 Pakistan
Foundation Assisted schools
Source: Barrera & Raju 2015; Barrera & Ganimian 2016; World Bank 2016
Public financing and private provision to reach poor households
Results-oriented approach to raise educational outcomes
3.1 Pakistan
Low-Cost Private Schooling in Rural Sindh
Source: Barrera et al 2013; World Bank 2017
Leverage private sector to start schools
Large increases in overall enrollment (boys & girls)
Impact on test scores (math and language): 0.67 SD
Autonomy to providers
4
4.1 Mexico
Empowering Parents to Improve Education
Source: Gertler, Patrinos, Rodriguez 2012; Gertler, Patrinos, Rubio 2012
School based management program
Limited autonomy to parents, schools
Large effects on participation and learning
4.1 Mexico
Source: Gertler et al 2012
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
2007 20092008 2010
Training control
Pure control
Total Score (Spanish & Math)
Attention to early childhood development (ECD) & early reading
5
5.1 Papua New Guinea
Scale up Early Reading Cost-effective interventions improve reading rapidly
Source: World Bank 2015
Average
Familiar word reading
Letter sound knowledge
initial sound identification %
READING BOOSTER PROGRAMME SHOWED STRONG IMPROVEMENT IN READING ABIL IT IESaverage affect sizes on Early Grade Reading Assessment sub–tests of the reading
0.510.040.580.91
5.2 The Gambia
In-service training focusing on reading
Source: World Bank (2013, 2016)
CORRECT LETTER READ PER MINUTE
CORRECT WORDS READ PER MINUTE
ORAL READING FLUENCY
READING COMPRESHENSION%
READING PROGRESS S INCE 2007 IN THE GAMBIA (GRADE 1 -3 AVERAGE)
100 20
2007
2011
2016
30 40 50
Awareness of culture
6
6.1 Guatemala
Scale up Early ReadingCost-effective interventions improve reading rapidly
Source: World Bank, 2016
Bilingual students receive higher scores in all subjects, including Spanish
Shift to bilingual schooling would result in considerable cost savings
6.1 “Fix Higher Education Finance”
The Mick Jagger Effect
H A R R Y A N T H O N Y P A T R I N O SEducation, World Bank@hpatrinos
