Ecosystem-based fisheries management in the Alaska … · Kerim Aydin(*) Alaska Fisheries Science...

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Ecosystem-based fisheries management in the Alaska Region

Kerim Aydin(*)

Alaska Fisheries Science Center(*) Contributions from: Pat Livingston, Anne Hollowed, Jim Ianelli, Jeff Napp, Mike Sigler, Al Hermann, Ivonne Ortiz, Kirstin Holsman, Matt Baker, Olav Ormseth, Stephani Zador, Steve Ignell

Examples of Ecosystem-based Management Actions

• OY cap on total groundfishyield

• No target fisheries on forage –designation of ecosystem component stocks

• Minimum biomass threshold in harvest control rule for sea lion prey species

• Trawl closures, bottom trawling restrictions

• Single species FMPs converted to place based or multispecies based FMPs or FEPs

CAP on TOTAL TARGET CATCHTotal yield < 2 million tonnes

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NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program http://www.noaa.gov/iea/ (note: EBM vs. EBFM)

www.fakr.noaa.gov/npfmc/current_issues/ecosystem/AIFEP12_07.pdf

www.fakr.noaa.gov/npfmc/current_issues/Arctic/arctic.htm

alaskafisheries.noaa.gov/habitat/efh.htm

Ecosystem-based fishery management –Strategic planning

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Council Research Priorities

– The Council would also like to highlight several current Council initiatives that are of high priority, and notes the research priorities that specifically relate to these initiatives:

– Build Integrated Ecosystem Management capabilities (related research priorities: 110, 125, 142, 194, 198, 200, 203, 204, 205, 216, and 217).

EcosystemStuff????

Research surveyAbundance data

Commercial fisheryCatch data

Biological data:Catch at age, size

Life history

Plan Team ReviewInitial ABC OFL

Advisory PanelInitial TAC

Scientific & StatisticalCommittee

Final ABC OFL

Final TAC specifications

Publicinput

Publicinput

Stockassessment

North Pacific FisheryManagement Council

Fishery management: annual process

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Life history




Final ABC OFL


Publicinput

Publicinput

Stockassessment

Ecosystemassessment

Biological data:Food habits,

nontarget species

Physical data: Climate,

Habitat indices Fishery data:Effort, gear,

nontarget catch

Results

Initial ecosystem integration (EBFM)

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Methods of Using Ecosystem Information in an ACL context

• Tactical— Quantitative incorporation into a single species assessment

model: M2, environmental or habitat variable—Qualitative evaluation of ecosystem factors in annual ACL

process: suites of variables that may impact production

• Strategic— Management strategy evaluations (MSEs) to examine

robustness of harvest strategies—Quantitative suites of ecosystem indicators and aggregate

indices

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Including ecosystem considerations in each stock assessment

(Lowe et al. 2007)

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• EBS yellowfin sole temperature dependent survey Q

• GOA walleye pollock B20 threshold for Steller sea lions

• Natural mortality from predation estimates of octopus, crab

Regional Examples: Tactical

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• An “operational ensemble” of models be developed and kept up-to-date to address pressing ecosystem-based management concerns in a timely fashion– Endangered species issues– Bycatch impacts– Ocean acidification– Oil and gas development

Multispecies & multiMultispecies & multi--fisheries managementfisheries management

Fisheries

Multiple species/stocks

Multispecies & multiMultispecies & multi--fisheries managementfisheries management

Fisheries

Multiple species/stocks

walleye pollock

Pacific cod

Greenland turbot

yellowfin sole

rock sole

arrowtooth flounder

Pacific herring

northern fur seal

PreyPredator - prey

Other predators

MSVPA/ Multispecies

Statistical Model (Jurado-

Molina et al.)

Ecopath/Ecosim and Ecosense (Aydin et al.)

Forage and Euphausiid Abundance in Space and Time (FEAST); Aydin et al. North Pacific Research Board

Multispecies Bycatch Model (Ianelli)

Developing and maintaining

Operational Readiness

http://access.afsc.noaa.gov/reem/ecoweb/index.cfm

•Current and archived versions available•Ongoing support from the FATE program

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-1.0

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Bering Sea

Sur

viva

l Rat

e In

dex

Rec

ruitm

ent

Inde

x

Raw materials for the assessment

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• Goal: to provide a synthesis of current and relevant scientific advice for fisheries managers

• New indicator-based assessments:

• Eastern Bering Sea (2010)

• Aleutian Islands (2011)

Ecosystem Assessments at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center

Same method Different product

Ecosystem comparison

Eastern Bering Sea Aleutian Islands

Habitat Broad, flat, muddy shelf. Valuable fisheries ‐>Lots of fish‐related research.

Extensive rocky island chain, deep trenches, oceanic basins.Smaller‐scale fisheries (and research)

Team members:NOAA

AcademiaManagementCommercialOther FedNon Profit

Research sponsor

172

1 (3)

10411211

Structuring theme Production Variability

Indicator focus Broad, community‐level, indicators of ecosystem‐wide productivity, and those most informative for managers

Characterize global attributeswith local behavior

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Results

Indicators

Climate

Zooplankton

Forage fish

Fish biomass

MarineMammals

Seabirds

Humans

• North Pacific Index

• Ice Retreat Index

• Euphausiids/Copepods

• Motile epifauna biomass

• Benthic foragers biomass

• Pelagic foragers biomass

• Fish apex predator biomass

• St Paul fur seal pups

• St George thick‐billed murre

reproductive success

• Area trawled

• North Pacific Index

• Auklet reproductive success

• Tufted puffin chick diets

• Pelagic foragers biomass

• Fish apex predator biomass

• Sea otters

• Steller sea lion non‐pups

• Area trawled

• K‐12 enrollment

Report Card

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Life history




Final ABC OFL


Publicinput

Publicinput

Stockassessment

Biological data:Food habits,

nontarget species

Physical data: Climate,

Habitat indices Fishery data:Effort, gear,

nontarget catch

Results

EcosystemSynthesis TeamAI, EBS, GOAEcosystem

Assessments

Ecosystemindicators

PROCESS• Narrow suite of EBS indicators

(Sept)

• Use to assess ecosystem status and trends for November Plan Team and December Council decisions (Oct)

Key: presented to SSC and Council immediately prior to setting specifications

Goal: formal ecosystem thresholds• Example: 2 million MT cap on total removals from the

Bering Sea.

• Future development (e.g. through the Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) program):

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5

EBS trawl impacts modified from Integrated Fisheries Risk Assessment for Method for

Ecosystems (Zhang et al. 2009)

SSustainabilitySustainabilitySustainability HHabitatHabitatHabitat

BBiodiversityBiodiversityBiodiversityESocio-EconomicsSocioSocio--EconomicsEconomics

EmploymentAverage wageProfit-per-vessel

BiomassFishing intensityHabitat size

Habitat damageDiscarded wastesHabitat protection

DiscardsTrophic levelDiversityIntegrity of functional group

Pelagic foragers aggregate biomass

Benthic foragers aggregate biomass

Fish apex predators aggregate biomass

Motile epifauna aggregate biomass

Guild Catch and Exploitation Rates

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Pelagic Piscivores

Eastern Bering Sea

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

Total SystemPelagic Piscivores

PlanktivoresDemersal Piscivores

Benthivores

Similar distributions across the guild,but partitioning within that space

Habitat Risk Ecosystem Index

Vulnerability

Sen

sitivity

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Interactions Ecosystem Assessment

Risk Assessment

low Probability of interaction high

low

Impa

ct o

f int

erac

tion

h

igh

Cod eat

Atka

Increase Atka

fishing?

Oil spill on rookery

Changeshipping routes?

Risk Assessment

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Challenge 1: Ecosystem ScienceB

ES

T-B

SIE

RP

Ber

ing

Sea

Pro

ject

bsi

erp

.npr

b.o

rg

What Controls Trophic Interconnectivity in the eastern Bering Sea?

Alaska Marine Science SymposiumAnchorage, AlaskaJanuary 23rd, 2013

Michael Lomas (Bigelow Lab) & Phyllis Stabeno (PMEL)(on behalf of the larger program)

http://bsierp.nprb.org/

Bering Ecosystem Study (BEST)

+Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

(BSIERP)

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BE

ST-

BS

IER

P B

erin

g S

ea P

roje

ctb

sie

rp.n

prb

.org

Climate Scenarios

Humans

Humpback and fin whales

Commercial/subsistence fish: Pollock, cod, arrowtooth flounder

Kittiwakes and murres, fur seals, walrus

Forage species: Juvenile pollock, capelin,myctophids

NPZ: Infauna: Ichthyoplankton, Bivalves,euphausiids, gastropods,copepods, polychaetesphytoplankton

Atmosphere/ocean

The Project is an ‘End‐to‐End Ecosystem Study’

BE

ST-

BS

IER

P B

erin

g S

ea P

roje

ctb

sie

rp.n

prb

.org

Ing

est

ion

(%b

ody

C d

-1)

C h lo ro p h yll a ( g l-1 )0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Im a x = 2 .6 3 % b o d y C d -1

r2

= 0 .7 1

T. raschii

Importance of Seasonal Sea Ice:Ice algae: Importance to early reproduction in copepods

Campbell, Lessard, Ashjian

Both Calanus spp. and T. raschii have higher ingestion when feeding on ice algae (green) than when feeding on ambient water column phytoplankton

(blue)

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BE

ST-

BS

IER

P B

erin

g S

ea P

roje

ctb

sie

rp.n

prb

.org

Large Zooplankton Increase in Cold Years:

L. Eisner et al., submitted.

Cold years favor the increases in abundance of large zooplankton at the expense of small zooplankton.

BE

ST-

BS

IER

P B

erin

g S

ea P

roje

ctb

sie

rp.n

prb

.org

Water Temperature, pollock and euphausiids:

envir. pollock euph. envir. pollock euph.

Bo

ttom

tem

pe

ratu

re (

oC

)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5Spring, 2007-2008 Summer, 2004-2010

De Robertis and Cokelet, in pressRessler et al., in prep.

Temperature structures pollock distributions more so than for euphausiids.

R² = 0.69

‐20

0

20

3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17

Average energy content (kJ/fish)

Cold

Warm

‘10‘09

‘08

‘07‘05‘03

‘04

‘06

Recruitment Anomaly

20

0

‐20

Avg. Energy Content (kJ/fish)3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17

Heintz et al., in review

Cold years generally enhance survivorship

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BE

ST-

BS

IER

P B

erin

g S

ea P

roje

ctb

sie

rp.n

prb

.org

Modelled conditions for juvenile pollock survival are associated with moderate temperatures

Juvenile pollock survival

Aboveaverage

Belowaverage

Water Temperature, pollock and euphausiids:

Meuter

The Bering Sea ProjectBEST/BSIERP Research Program

climate & oceanography

fish, seabirds, marine mammals

phyto & zooplankton

economics & management

traditional knowledge

Modeling

climate scenarios

physical oceanography(ROMS)

Lower trophic level(NPZ)

Upper trophic level(FEAST)

Economics & spatial fisheries

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Southeast Bering depth-averaged temperature

thin line = weekly ave; thick line = 5-year smoothed

CORE hindcastCFSR hindcastIPCC forecast

(oC)

y = 0.8292x + 0.1178R² = 0.7565

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

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0.8

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Summer Cold Pool (% of survey area) ROMS

Summer Cold Pool (% of survey area) data

0

0.1

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0.8

1970

1971

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Cold pool %

of survey area

ROMS

Data

Focus on dynamic habitat (e.g. Barbeaux, Spencer et al.)

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sandlance

capelin

salmon

myctophid

squids

shrimp

crabs

pollockarrowtoothcod

herring

eulachon

epifauna

benthos

FEAST

copepods &euphausiids

11 ages/ 15 lengthshigh detail

15 lengthsmedium detail

biomass poolslow detail

NPZ

Prey Fields and temperature – foraging potential for an 8 cm (age 0) pollock

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Age 0 pollock seasonal Forage Potential (FP) and stock-assessment estimate of year-class strength

Colors show ranked stock-assessment year-class strength from weakest (blue) to strongest (red)

Gulf of Alaska IERP

Comparative approach

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GOA breakpoints ‐ oceanography

SST

PAR

CHL

(Waite, Mueter)

GOA breakpoints – fishes – CPUE & diversity

Alongshore Distance (km x 100)

CP

UE

^0.2

5

0 5 10 15 20 25

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

1.2

1.4

1.6

Sp

eci

es D

iver

sity

CPUECPUE breakDiversityDiversity break

(Waite, Mueter)

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individual‐based model (IBM): arrowtooth flounder

(Buck Stockhausen)

• The Climate Forecast System (CFS) – a global coupled air/sea/land model –is used for boundary conditions and atmospheric forcing of an established ROMS‐based regional model

MOVING TO PREDICTION

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Wen et al, 2012

CFS prediction of ENSO and PDO

Peterson NOAA/NWFSC

May actually be better at predictingbiology due to biological integration

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Recruitment Processes Alliance• Goals

o Improve walleye pollock stock assessment

o Address salmon bycatch

• Alliance of major AFSC programs

o Eco‐Fisheries Oceanography Coordinated

Investigations (with Pacific Marine

Environmental Laboratory)

o Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment

o Resource Ecology and Ecosystem Modeling

Balance of process studies and stock assessments

FD/FI Data

Process Studies

Stock Assessments

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Data collections used in process studies

• Moorings

• Ichthyoplankton surveys

• Bottom trawl surveys

• Acoustic surveys

• Surface trawl/acoustic surveys (aka BASIS)

• Nearshore surveys

• Many of these surveys also conduct

measurements of physical and biological (e.g.,

zooplankton) oceanography

Ongoing Projects

• Integrated Ecosystem Research Programs

• Recruitment Processes Alliance

• Spatially‐explicit ecosystem models (FEAST)

• Management Strategy Evaluations (MSE)

• IPCC‐scenario driven projections (e.g.,

Mueter et al 2011; Ianelli et al. 2011)

• Bioeconomic modeling of crab fisheries and

ocean acidification

• (Does not cover substantial socioeconomic work)

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Short Term Objectives for Improvement

• Continue to address ecosystem terms of reference in stock assessments (M2, environmental drivers of recruitment and growth, habitat covariates)

– Develop regionally specific priorities for species and processes to be considered

• Continue development of integrated ecosystem assessment frameworks– Estimate and implement system level thresholds– Improve modeling capabilities (multispecies, ecosystem)– Improve integration of environmental data

• More explicit rules or processes for defining where ecosystem considerations should play into ACL decisions for information not already captured in the current management process

– Work with Councils/SSCs/Regions and stock assessment review panels to develop structured process for considering ecosystem factors

– Develop processes within Science Centers to bring scientists doing stock assessment, habitat science and ecosystem research together (improve data access)

• Continued and enhanced funding for National programs that focus on ecosystem data collection and integration (FATE, IEA, Habitat, ESA)

– Improve ecosystem data collection– Continue integration into single species models– Improve integrated assessments at the regional level

Challenges: IEA, EBFM versus EBM, PSEIS, mandates

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Ecosystem-based fisheries management in the Alaska … · Kerim Aydin(*) Alaska Fisheries Science...

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