Economic&Financial Report 2011 Cafef

Economic –

Financial report

2011

Compiled by Date analysis and Editorial division – CafeF

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Briefing

Global economy 1

U.S and Europe suffered from heavy losses on public debt crisis

Governments published new economic stimulus package

Natural disasters caused severe damages

Commodity price reached a peak then plunged

Domestic economy 3

Net import considerably fell thanks to export

FDI, ODA decreased, disbursement rose

Government processed revision upon big departments, economic

groups

Merge of 3 banks SCB – FCB and VNT Bank

Gold price rose by VND 7mil/oz, enlarging the gap between

domestic and global level to VND 3-5mil/oz.

Stock market 8

VN – Index fell by 27.46%, HNX – Index 48.6% to lowest ever

MoF officially issued Circular 183 on open funds

Net buying of foreign investors hit 4 year lowest, out floor trading

gained attention

Revenue decreased, expense rocketed

Real estate market 12

Real estate in Ha Noi strongly fell

FDI on real estate plunged

Government approved of Ha Noi’s general planning

Real estate is categorized as non - manufacturing

Stock date updated 15

Excluding BVH, MSN, VIC and VNM, VN – Index at 12/30/2011 hit

203.9, P/E and P/B on HOSE stayed at 6.25 and 1.31

Outstanding real estate projects 18

TOP 100 richest people on stock market 20

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Economic – Financial report 2011

GLOBAL ECONOMY

Natural disasters exerted serious damages

A 9 richter degree earthquake and tidal wave in

Japan on 03/11/2011 killed 15,000 people,

destroying cooling system at Fukushima Daiichi

nuclear factory, bringing the world to worse

nuclear disaster ever since Chernobyl. As

announced by Japanese authorities, it takes 40

years to surmount all those damages.

Additionally, there are deathly disasters: flood

and landslides in Brazil in 01/2011; earthquake in

New Zealand in 02/2011; storm in U.S on

04/2011; typhoon in U.S in 05/2011; volcanic

eruption in Chile in 06/2011; Irene storm in U.S in

08/2011; forest fire in U.S in 09/2011; earthquake

in Turkey in 10/2011; flood in Philippines in

12/2011 (death toll of over 1,000 people).

U.S was under impact of at least 12 natural

disasters, causing USD 1bil damage at maximum

and serious human loss. Total financial damage

hit USD 50bil.

National authorities simultaneously introduced

economic stimulus package

On 09/22/2011, Fed announced “Operation

Twist” of USD 400bil in which, Fed will sells USD

400bil short term bonds (within 3 years) to

purchase USD 400bil long term bongs (within 6-

30 years) from 10/2011, ending at 06/2012.

In Sept, BoJ decided to loosen monetary policy

in terms of extending scale of asset purchasing

program from Yen 40,000 bil to 50,000 bil.

Financial assets’ fund was increased from Yen

10,000 to 15,000 bil.

On 11/30/2011, the first time in 3 years, Chinese

central banks decreased obligatory reserve ratio

by 0.5 points,

On 11/30/2011, China’s central bank reduced

obligatory reserves for the first time in 3 years to

0.5 percentage point to 21% for large central

banks, validated from 05/12/2012.

U.S and EU suffered from public debts

On 08/02/2011, U.S raised its debt ceiling by USD

2.4 thousand bil to prevent bankruptcies. On

08/05/2011, its credit rating was downgraded to

AA+ from AAA by S&P. U.S Treasury bonds stayed

behind Britain, Germany, France or Canada on

rating.

5 EU governments went bankrupted due to debt

crisis and incessant credit rating downgrades:

Spain, Italy, Greece, Ireland and Portugal. EIU

lowered forecast on GDP growth of eurozone to

0.3% in 2012. There was no exceptional agreement

to improve current situations.

“Arab spring” exploded in Middle East, North

Africa

“Arab spring” initially occurred in Tunisia when a

vegetable vendor on being suppressed by police

fired himself. It took 1 year for protestors and

strikers to bring down Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s

regime.

At the end of 01/2011, strikers poured down to

Tahrir square in Cairo, Egypt and turned down

Hosni Mubarak’s regime. In Libiya, choosing to fight

against NATO and protesters, Muammar Qaddafi

failed and was arrested on 10/20/2011. Abdullah

Saleh fought until other governments in Gulf forced

him to hand over utmost power on 11/23/2011.

China competes with US for no1 in global

manufacturing

In 2010, China’s manufacturing sector exceeded

U.S to be global no1 since World War II. At the end

of 2011, a downward global economic negatively

affected China’s economic growth. Final figure has

not yet been released which ignited another

competition between these two in 2012.

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GLOBAL ECONOMY

On 11/30/2011, 6 global central banks created

bilateral swap program to guarantee supply to

any currency on requested. This expires on

02/01/2013.

On 12/08/2011, ECB reduced essential rate in

eurozone by 0.25 percentage point to 1%.

Currencies went down

On 03/18/2011, G7, for the first time of a decade,

interfered with foreign currency market after an

exceptional Yen increase. On 03/15/2011, Japan

injected over Yen 15 thousand bil into market for

price reduction. In 08/2011, Japan decreased

Yen. On 10/31/2011, Japan secondly reduced

Yen in 3 months.

On 09/06/2011, Swiss national bank (SNB)

harbored its franc at 1.20 franc/euro with a view

to weakening franc.

On 10/11/2011, U.S Senate penalized China on

not raising Yuan. In total of 2011, Yuan rose by

only 3.83%, 30% lower than real price as

assessed by U.S.

Global stock market

Changes of main indexes (Source: FT)

Index Change

S&P 500 0.00%

FTSE 100 -5.55%

CAC 40 -15.89%

Ibex 35 -11.74%

DAX -12.78%

Hang Seng -19.97%

Straits Times -17.04%

RTS -22.02%

S&P/ASX 200 -14.51%

NZX 50 -1.04%

Movements of significant currencies against

USD in 2011 (Source: FT)

Commodity market

Gold price

Gold price in 2011 rose by 10% to set record at

1,923.7 USD/oz (09/06) due to safety demand

regarding accelerating public debt in Europe and

global crisis.

ETF increased holding gold figure to 2,370 tons,

highest ever, which equals productivity of all

global gold mines in 2011 and higher than any

national holding except for U.S, Germany, Italy

and France.

Central banks purchased a 4 time gold figure

higher than prior year at 450 tons, specifically

Russia, Thailand. Gold warehouses were

overloaded, hiring expense hit records. New

places were built up to meet raising demand.

Gold price in 2011 (Source: Kitco)

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Political intension pushed up oil price

Crude oil price reached record, WTI at 95.11

USD/barrel, Brent at 110.91 USD/barrel due to

political instability in Middle East and Northern

Africa.

Fighting between protestors and loyalty group

towards Muammar Qaddafi gave fall by 1.5mil

barrels/day to oil from Lybia.

Intension among Iran and western countries on

nuclear issue at the end of year gave fuel to

energy market.

Commodities reached a peak then turned

downwards

Commodities price hit years’ records on a weak

USD, strong demand prospective and concerns

on supply. Since May when U.S was going to

end its QE2 and faced debt ceiling pressure,

accelerating public debts in Europe threatening

global economic growth, in combination with a

rather stable supply, however, commodities

turned to downward trend.

Compared to previous peak level, commodity

indexes such as CRE (19 items), GSCI (24

items) fell by 30%.

CPI in 2011 rose by 18.58%

Electricity rose twice, gasoline rose twice and

decreased 1 time, making CPI in 2011 stay at

18% as modified by Parliament, despite its

downward trend and inflation at 18.58% - higher

than ceiling level at beginning of the year.

Ending 2011, CRB lost 7%, GSCI fell by 1.2% -

first in 3 years.

Commodity Price Change YTY (Source: CafeF,

Barclays Captial)

Divestment from commodity market at the

end of year

In the beginning of the year, funds and investors

massively purchased commodities on a positive

outlook. However, since price fall and climbing

gold as well as economic instability, all goods

were sold off for investment transfer or cash.

The trend became transparent later and

overpoured into gold market after MF Global

breakdown – biggest global brokerage, pushing

price down. According to statistics shown by US

Future Trading Commission, from Sept to Dec,

there were on average USD 550mil divested

from commodity funds.

Net import strongly decreased thanks to

export.

Export turnover in 2011 was estimated at USD

96.3bil, a 33.3% rise against prior period.

Export structure in 2011 remarked considerable

changes against 2010. Heavy industry and

mineral proportion rose by 4%; light industry,

agricultural, aquatic, forestry and gold products

slightly decreased.

Total import turnover hit an estimated USD

105.8bil, a 24.7% rise against previous year. Net

import was estimated at USD 9.5bil.

DOMESTIC ECONOMY

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DOMESTIC ECONOMY

Excluding price factor, export turnover rose by

11.4%, import 3.8% over 2010. Thanks to strong

export, net import significantly minimized.

FDI, ODA decreased, disbursement rose

To 12/15/2011, total FDI inflow hit USD 14.7bil

(including new registration and additions), a 26%

fall by 2010, 76.4% of which is into industry and

construction. Despite decreasing inflow,

disbursement quality considerably improved

against USD 11bil in 2010, equals to realized

figure in 2010 and contributed 25.9% to social

investment.

In sponsor consulting summit, committed ODA

figure to Vietnam in 2012 hit USD 7,386bil,

slightly falling compared to 2011.

Budget overspending stayed below planning

Budget overspending in 2011 including principal

debt payment hit an estimated VND 111,500bil,

equivalent to 4.9%, principal payment

proportioned 2.11%, lower than predicted 5.3%.

Gains from aids were estimated at VND

674,500bil, rising by 20.6% against 2010 (2nd

estimated figure). In which, tax income hit VND

586,151bil, a 21.8% increased over 2010; gain

from crude oil hit VND 100,000bil.

Loosen, decrease tax levy on many groups

In 2011, Government issued documents upon

loosening and decreasing tax levy at VND 15 –

19.5 thousand bil including: supporting package

of VND 250,000 for low income group; extending

payment period of corporate income tax for

SMEs and enterprises with big number of labor

and reducing total amount in 2011 by 30%;

exempting 5% personal income tax towards

income from dividends of stock investors; exempt

stock transfer by individual investors from income

tax.

Government inspected sectors and big groups

Process audit work for Ministry of Finance and

Ministry of Commerce. 27 groups, general

corporations and commercial banks are included

in auditing list such as Vinshin, EVN, TKV,

Vinalines…

These actions initially gave out findings such as

long term investment of VND 50,000bil and

accumulated loss of VND 35,000 bil of EVN;

gasoline enterprises with limited efficiency in out

of sector investment; audit conclusions of

Gasoline Stabilizing fund.

Restructuring social capital

On 07/08/2011, Decree no 59/2011/ND-CP on

transferring 100% state owned enterprises into

joint stock companies were issued, making

principal base of state owned enterprises’

restructuring.

Equitization direction grasped attention from

both domestic and exotic investors, for example,

equitization of 10 companies in Ministry of

Commerce; 6 of Vinachem; companies in

Vietnam Airlines; 6 in Railway general

corporation; urban and housing development;

members in Song Da group; BIDV; VNSteel,

Mobifone; PV Oil, Nhon Trach electricity…

Mineral resources were put under planning

Facing an overloading mineral exploitation,

Government announced a strategy to 2020,

vision 2030. Government showed no

encouragement towards exporting natural

resources and definite abandonment on

exporting crude minerals. Project certification

was approved by Prime Minister.

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Finance - Banking

Mobilization

According to Ha Noi statistic department, total

mobilized figure at the end of 12/2011 hit VND

808,290bil, rising by 2.6% and 1.7% against last

month and prior year respectively.

In Ho Chi Minh, the number reached an

estimation of VND 886.9 thousand bil, 1.8% and

10% higher than last month and 2010

respectively.

Credit growth

In Ho Chi Minh, outstanding credit balance at

the end of Dec was estimated at VND 753.8

thousand bil, 2.1% and 6.3% higher than last

month and 2010.

Outstanding loan balance of commercial joint

stock banks hit VND 381.6 thousand bil, 50.6%

total number, 6.5% higher than prior period.

In Ha Noi, the number is VND 569,400 bil, 1%

and 11.7% higher than last month and prior

period, in which, short term outstanding balance

is 1.5% and 11.5%, medium and long term is

0.2% and 11.9%.

According to final banking report 2011, total

means of payments rose by 10%, credit12-13%,

in which VND 10.2%, foreign currencies 18.7%.

In 2012, estimated growth is 14-16% and 15-

17% respectively.

Open market operations

In Dec, SBV injected about VND 16,428 bil into

Open market in two terms: 7 days and 14 days.

Interest remained at 14%/year, which was

modified level at 07/04/2011.

Interbank transactions

Below 1 month term took the most considerable

proportion at approximately 70% total

transactions. Interest fluctuated between 12.4%

and 17.5%/year. For overnight trading, interest

stayed at 13.4%-14.4%/year.

Trading exchange rate in Dec was modified

twice, ending 12/24 at 20,828 VND/USD.

Blue: overnight; Red: 1 week; light green: 1

month

Interbank interest rate suddenly rose by 30-

40%/year at certain periods. Overnight rate

reached 20%/year, however, mainly at over 12

month term with no significant trading figure.

VND overnight interest rate (%) (Source:

MB&TLS)

Bond market

In Dec, Treasury mobilized VND 2,150 bil of

government bonds through bids at HNX. Since

Dec, there has been 3 terms including 3 years

and 10 years instead of 3 and 5 previously.

Traded bonds are mainly in 3 years at

12.1%/year. Only VND 50bil of 20 year bonds

were successfully trade at 11.2%.

As estimated by State Treasury, mobilization by

bonds hit VND 65,000 bil, 81% target. This is due

to different factors, outstanding are unattractive

interest, underdeveloped secondary market.

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GLOBAL ECONOMY

Legal documents

On 12/15/2011, SBV issued Circular no

40/2011/TT-NHNN on Certification and

organization, operations of commercial banks,

foreign banks’ branches, representative office of

foreign credit institutions, other foreign entities

operating in Vietnam as bank.

On 12/15/2011, SBV issued Circular 41/2011/TT-

NHNN guiding identification and updates of client

information based on risk for preventing money

laundering.


NHNN on granting syndicated credit to customers

by credit institutions.

On 12/29/2011, SBV issued Circular no

44/2011/TT-NHNN on internal audit and control of

credit institutions, foreign banks’ branches.


NHNN on foreign currency management towards

borrowing and collecting exotic loans.

Important news

On 12/06, SBV governor officially announced

merging of 3 commercial banks including SCB –

FCB – VNT Bank. BIDV as SBV’s representative

stated its thorough guarantee towards depositors’

benefits.

On 12/24, SBV modified exchange rate 16th time

since governor’s announcement of a below 1%

change. Exchange rate at the end of the year hit

20,828 VND/USD.

To seriously follow Decree 95 on administrative

penalties in monetary and banking sector, SBV

fined Metropole Ha noi with VND 500mil. Also,

managing authorities confiscated USD 500,000

and VND 10bil collected from illegal foreign

trading at Eximbank.

Analysts recommended a ceiling lending rate to

support enterprises.

Gold market

Gold price rose by VND 7mil/oz – 8%, it hit

highest increase by 40% when price reached a

peak of VND 49.2mil/oz on 08/23/2011, global

price also climbed to top of USD 1,900/oz. At

year end, domestic price stayed at VND 41-

42mil/oz, gold price plunged to USD 1,600/oz.

As a rising price pushed up demand, SBV

allowed SJC and 5 commercial banks to sell

stabilizing fund including Sacombank, ACB,

Techcombank, DongABank and Eximbank which

made purchased figure hit 10 tons in two weeks.

While global price was modified, domestic level

remained high, extending price gap to VND 3-

5mil/oz.

SBV issued a draft on gold market management

to deal with market inadequacies, which is

pending for approval. This new regulation will

tighten gold slice manufacturing into SJC.

Accordingly, SJC will be considered national

symbol.

Commodity market

Surging price

Ron92 rose by 26.83%, diesel 0.05S 38.3%, oil

33.8%, electricity rose twice (15.28% and 5%),

coal 20-40%, clean water 40% to recording level

pushing up other items’ price.

A rise by 30% of imported milk and

pharmaceutics preyed upon customers. At

certain period (July), food price doubled prior

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year. Gas, steel, constructing materials, animal

feeds and consumption goods also dramatically

increase.

Due to strong importing demand, processing

materials remained at highest ever such as

coffee, rubber, pepper, pangasius, sprawn,

potatoes...

Product quality

Illegal imports of unclean food products

incessantly revealed exerted doubts to

customers. Specifically, agar seaweed contains

poisonous DEHP; sticky rice and chilla sauce

are infected with Rhodamine B; instant noodles

contain welding; instant beverages contain

coloring elements; chickens are infected with

steel flour exposing cancer; water injection to

raise cattle’s weight; illegal import of cattle’s

inner spoiled parts…

Igniting motorbikes and motors doubted

consumers. There have been 40 cases with

opening questions, despite certain concerns

raised from low quality oil.

Material drain to China

This year, Chinese merchants massively

collected commodities at local regions of

Vietnam. Large numbers were seen with

agricultural and aquatic products such as chilli,

pepper, cashews, coffee, rubber, pork, eggs,

yeam, cassava, lychee, fish…

This impacted market price, troubling purchasing

activities of processing enterprises. There was a

fact that many had to work for Chinese firms due

to input shortage.

Export set record

Export in 2011 set record with USD 96.3bil, 16bil

higher than target and 33% higher than 2010.

The number of items with USD 1bil turnover rose

from 16 to 22 with 5 of over USD 5bil including

garment and textile, crude oil, telephone, footwear

and aquatic products. Others remained an

impressive growth such as telephone and

components 200%, pepper 80%, cassava 82%,

steel 65%, rubber 45%, coffee 55%...

Many items experienced recording turnover such

as: garment and textile (USD 14bil), crude oil

(7.2bil), footwear (6.5bil), aquatic products

(6.1bil), machineries and equipments (4bil), rice

(3.5bil), wood (4bil), rubber (3bil), coffee (2bil)…

Import growth in 2011 (%)

62.2

25.4 25.7

18.2

45.2

15.9

25.7

14.4 13.8

56.6

30.626.1

1.9

39.2

7.2

-23.8

12

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-20

-10

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Petro

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LPG

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s

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Export growth in 2011 (%)

21.736.4 30

48.1

0.7

76.9

12.2

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45.953.635

13.725.127.3

-5.2

56.2

26.9

197.3

15.8

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100

150

200

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Fis

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DOMESTIC ECONOMY

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Closing 2011, VN-Index was recorded at 351.55,

decreasing by 27.46%. HNX-Index 58.74, a

48.6% fall to lowest ever.

VKP’s stock price was remarked as lowest at

VND 900/share. 19/28 securities stock decreased

to under VND 5,000; SBS, SME, ORS, APS, AIG

fell by over 80% to under VND 3,000/share, this

was also seen with real estate stocks such as

NVT, HQC, SDU…

HoSE put 5 stocks into warning list including

DDM, IFS, VES, VPH and VSG, 5 into controlling

list including BAS, CAD, CYC, MHC and VKP

due to 2 consecutive years with losses. DVD and

DCC were cancelled listing (disclosure violation),

DCL ceased trading due to delay in submitting

financial reports. 5 stocks publicly stopped listing,

including MKP, IFS, SGT, SQC, V11

DVD’s director of managing board Le Van Dung

was sentenced to 4 year in prison due to stock

price manipulation, remarking the first case to be

put in court since the claim is added into Criminal

law, validated from 01/01/2010.

IPO, market offers

At the end of 2011, BIDV completely sold all

84mil shares publicly issued at VND

18,538/share. In 2011, there were only 6

enterprises equitized such as Steel corporation

(Vn Steel – 60% sold at VND 15,032/share),

Petrolimex (all sold), Cosevco, MHB (28% at VND

11,025/share).

Securities companies faced a hard year

KLS intended to leave securities field, SME, TAS

was cancelled depository due to liquidity shortage;

Ha Thanh’s director evaded with a negative VND

100bil, investors sued FLC, HSSC.

Truong Son securities (TSS) cancelled brokerage

operations, ending membership at HNX and

HOSE. Dong Duong securities closed brokerage,

transferred investors’ account to Kim Eng.

STOCK MARKET

For the first time, Depository center allowed direct

payment of dividends as SME was suspended

from offset payment. SME was also put into

controlling list and allowed to trade at Friday

sessions.

In 2011, there were 16 closed branches and 23

transaction offices and 15 new branches and 16

transaction offices. Total branches of securities

companies are 150 and 83.

According to Mr Nguyen Son, minister of market

development, Securities Commission, there are at

least 20 securities companies in need of

restructuring. The others will consider financial

safety regulations to restructure within 2 years. In

02/2012, VN-30 index will be released.

Rebounding stock market in 2012

At the end of 2011, there have been promises by

Ministry of Finance’s leaders, SBV and SEC on

rebounding stock market in 2012.

According to Mr Vuong Dinh Hue, Minister of

Finance, there has been general report and

detailed method on recovering stock market

submitted to government. Deputy Minister Vu Van

Ninh directed MoF, SEC to quickly deploy

restructuring plans which will turn stock market

into main capital channel.

According to SEC director Vu Bang, T+2 will be

commenced in 2012, he will continue proposing to

SBV on separating stock credit from non –

manufacturing sector to enable capital inflow. Mr

Dang Thanh Binh – Deputy Governor of SBV

stated that capital for stocks will still be under

control but at a more appropriate level.

Mr Nguyen Van Binh, SBV governor said that

banking growth will be controlled to prevent banks

from absorbing economic capital. Accordingly,

mobilized rate will fall and so will lending rate. In

upcoming period, SBV will re-identify balance

between money and capital market to rebound

stock market.

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Policy news

On 12/16, MoF officially issued Circular 183 on

Open fund. According to which, Open funds are

not allowed to directly invest in real estate,

precious metals, stones and restricted in certain

securities type such as not exceeding 20% total

asset value into 1 organization…To be

transferred into open type, closed funds need to

fully response to 3 criteria on net asset value,

investment portfolio and approval by 75% number

of current funds.

In 2011, MoF issued Circulars on developing

stock market such as Circular 74 on allowing

margin, open more than one account, trading

shares within day; Circular 226 on supervising

financial safety for securities company, Circular

37 on processing Decree 85 on penalty towards

stock violation, individual responsibility allocation.

In December, SEC proposed plan on

Restructuring stock market including:

Reclassification based on Circular 226);

improving listing standards; diversifying

investment products…

HOSE appointed new Chairman of Director Board

and General Director. Mr Tran Dac Sinh replaced

Mr Nguyen Doan Hung as new chairman; Mrs

Phan Thi Tuong Tam replaced Mr Tran Dac Sinh

as new General Director.

Foreign trading

On HOSE, foreign investors purchased 918 mil

units of VND 29,266bil and sold 961mil – VND

28,113bil. In which, deals accounted for 1/3 total

number.

Despite high selling figure, in terms of value,

foreign investors still made a net buying of VND

1,153bil – 4 year lowest in comparison with 2009

and 2010 of VND 3,195 and 15,370bil.

On HNX, net buying value hit VND 645bil (2010:

VND 833bil).

In general, foreign net buying was recorded at

VND 1,800bil – 11% of 2010. This followed 2010

trend, however, foreign investors strongly sold at

latter half of 2011.

Strongest net buying was seen with 3 most

noticeable stocks including VNM – Vinamilk

(8.6mil units – VND 951bil), FPT (16mil units –

VND 824bil) and CTG – Vietinbank (17.7mil units

– VND 577bil).

Not only on floors, VNM and CTG also absorde a

considerable foreign capital through separate

issuance.

Vinamil separately issued 10.7mil shares to

foreign investors at VND 130,000/share, gaining

VND 1,400 bil, raising foreign holding to 49%.

Vietinbank issued 10% share to IFC, gaining USD

182bil.

Though once being strongly sold on being

cancelled from FTSE’s portfolio, FPT’s shares

were purchased by Orchid Fund, Singapore,

therefore, raising this fund’s holding rate to 10%.

At present, room left of FPT stayed at lower than

1%.

Others with strong purchase are KDC – Kinh Do

(11.5mil units – VND 404bil), VCB – Vietcombank

(11.5mil units – 354bil), PVD (3.9mil units – VND

240bil)

STOCK MARKET

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Vietcombank reached an agreement to issue

15% its share to Mizuho Bank, Japan valuing

VND 11.8 thousand bil (USD 567mil). This is

going to be processed at the beginning of this

year.

PNJ and ITC showed up in top 10 net buying of

VND 195bil and 154bil respectively thanks to

strong purchase by Vietnam Azelea Fund.

This fund’s current holding of PNJ and ITC

reached 7% and 20%.

On net buying, VIC – Vincom (17.6mil units –

VND 1,819bil) and STB (69.2mil units – VND

1,017bil) outstood from others. Net buying

towards these stocks occurred throughout the

year but mostly in December.

In2010, net buying figure of VIC hit 17.6mil units

– equal to this year’s net selling – of VND

1,659bil.

In the case of STB, strong selling happened

simultaneously with its purchase of 100mil

treasury shares. During the year, Dragon Capital

divested from Sacombank and transferred to

foreign investors.

Others with over VND 100bil net selling include

CTD (3.9mil – 214bil), HAG (9.9mil – 212bil) and

CII (6.9mil – 122bil).

CTD’s net selling was due to Dragon Capital’s

transfer to foreign investors.

Despite being strongly sold, HAG and CII

attracted foreign capital in terms of bonds. HAG

issued USD 55mil of convertible bonds to

Temasek Holdings, CII issued USD 40mil

convertible bonds to Goldman Sachs.

In 2010, HAG was recorded with highest net

buying of over VND 2,000bil and USD 55mil

convertible bonds also to Temasek Holding.

Top 10 net buying in 2011

Name

Volume (mil) Net buying

Buy Sell Volume (mil)

Value (VND bil)

VNM-Vinamilk 23.6 15.0 8.6 951

FPT 58.8 42.8 16.1 824

CTG-Vietinbank 43.7 25.9 17.8 577

KDC-Kinh Do 22.2 10.7 11.5 404

VCB-Vietcombank 37.9 26.4 11.5 354

PVD-PV Drilling 24.0 20.0 3.9 239

PNJ 10.2 5.2 5.0 195

VCG-Vinaconex 21.1 14.1 7.0 167

REE 32.5 18.5 14.0 164

ITC-Intresco 12.5 4.7 7.8 154

Top 5 net selling in 2011

Name

Volume (mil) Net selling

Buy Sell Volume (mil)

Value (VND bil)

VIC-Vincom 21.2 38.8 -17.6 -1819

STB-Sacombank 99.4 168.6 -69.2 -1017

CTD-Coteccons 1.1 5.1 -3.9 -214

HAG-HAGL 29.7 39.5 -9.9 -212

CII 5.0 11.9 -6.9 -122

Out floor trading

While floor trading remained quiet, out floor

operations witnessed remarkable movements.

As mentioned above, IFC purchased 10%

Vietinbank’s share; HAG, CII issued convertible

bonds to foreign investors…

Besides, there are famous cases such as KKR

purchased 10% Masan Consumer’s share at

USD 159mil; Diageo purchased 30% Halico’s

share…

Especially, many foreign enterprises purchased

domestic firms such as Marico purchased ICP,

Fortis Health Care purchased Hoan My clinic;

Unicham purchased Diana; CJ – GGV purchased

Megastar, Kirin Holidng purchased Interfood…

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STOCK MARKET

There are two main points in this trend. Firstly, it is

a considerable cash flow into consumption goods

(Vinamilk, Masan Consumer, ICP, Diana,

Interfood…) which has expressed an impressive

growth recently and been under little effects from

economic circles. Secondly, it is Japanese firms to

purchase Vietnamese enterprises.

They showed up a great deal in M&A activities,

specifically Unicharm purchased Diana, Kirin

Holding purchased Interfood, Orix purchased

Nutifood, Daio Paper purchased Sai Gon paper…

and upcoming is Mizuho Bank purchasing 15%

VCB’s share at a record value of USD 600mil.

Enterprise news

More than 50% listed shares remained a lower

than book value

A weakening stock market led to a fall in market

value of more than 50% listed shares to below

VND 10,000 and much lower than net book value.

Facing merging pressure, many decided to leave

trading floors.

A falling market value also exerted hindrance

towards capital raise. Many big offers were

unsuccessful such as Nghe An petrol construction

(PVA), Dong Hai Ben Tre (DHC)… many others

ceased their plans despite being approved by

shareholders’ meeting such as Anvifish (AVF),

Ticco (THG), Di An machinery (DZM)…

High leverage, rising inventory, hard capital

mobilization

According to financial statements in quarter III,

there are 14 enterprises with Total Debt/Total

asset at higher than 90%; 50 with Debt ratio at 80-

90% and 80 at 70-80%. Capital leverage reached

1:9 (1 capital: 9 debt).

Inventory balance at the end of quarter III rose by

over 30% against same period. A high inventory

resulted in slow asset rotation and inefficient

capital utilization.

Due to a high interest rate and tightened credit

policy, 2011 witnessed money scarcity. Hard to

borrow or a high expense, unable to mobilize in

stock market in terms of additional issuance, high

inventory…are outstanding difficulties of SMEs.

Decreasing revenue, rocketing expense

Revenue experienced a lower than 5% growth

when inflation went high causing increases in

expenses such as salary, interest, management,

finance. This tightened enterprises’ income.

In terms of financial statements in quarter III, total

market revenue fell by 25%. To year end, many

asked shareholders for a decrease in year plan.

Failure in purchasing treasury shares

An incessant fall in stock price defeated intentions

to slow down price decrease or create capital

surplus on purchasing treasury stocks. New price

bottom which was formed due to a capital shortage

in the concept of a new hard year for capital

mobilization made enterprises come to selling

treasury stocks at cheap price.

Specifically, SHN sold its shares at half of

purchased price; NDN sold at 15% lower, SDH

planned to sell at 70% lower, FBT planned to sell

when market price stayed below purchased level in

the middle of 2009.

Sacombank: Opening question of acquisition

In quarter III, there were rumors on Sacombank

being acquired, especially when Dragon Capital

and even wife, daughter registered selling a great

deal of shares. The rumor went high when

subsidiaries (possessed by STB and other

benefiters) registered buying plus unexpected

purchase of over 100 mil treasury shares.

Vinancafe Bien Hoa – Merging trademark in 2011

Masan Consumer completed its offer and holding

50.11% chartered capital of Vinacafe Bien Hoa

(VCF), remarking an acquisition in terms of public

offer in 2011. This took Masan Consumer about

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STOCK MARKET

VND 1,100bil. This is regared to bring back

mutual benefits.

Changing senior staff

Changing SJS’s General Director, appointing of

board members at ORS, changing old leaders at

SBS… are examples of senior staff change.

Many enterprises made changes upon a change

in big shareholders such as VCF, FBT replaced

its leaders after its capital being mainly held by

Masan Consumers and HVG.

Securities market cut down staff, operating scale

due to a weakening market. In 17 current

securities companies, there are 3,417 staff,

falling by 370 – 9.8% against 2010. Their senior

staff was also replaced.

Out of these above reasons, many made

changes due to internal requirements with silent

movements in terms of a Decision of Inform such

as PGT, TCT, KTT, SEC, DCC, VSP, BPC, BTS,

DTC, HNM, TVD, NDN, MKV…

Restructure became essential

Market difficulties and a weak internal systems

enhanced restructuring, mainly in terms of staff

change, asset liquidation and expense cut. Asset

liquidation was strongly seen with SHC,

VNA,VOS, VFR, TLC… Others chose to reduce

number of inefficient branches; many

restructured operating regime such as ALP,

VCG…

2011 depicted a gloom market with weakening

supply – demand, low liquidity, decelarating

price. Price movements favored downward

trend with average 30%-40% in Ha Noi and 5-

10% in HCM against beginning of the yera.

Market

Real estate price in Ha Noi significantly

climbed down: In 2 months from April to June,

ground price in 70% new urban area fell.

Noticeably, western projects witnessed a 20-30%

decrease such as Kim Chung Di Trach, Gelexinco

Le Trong Tan, Van Phu, Van Canh…

Up to present, regarding to the direction of

pushing outstanding loan balance to 16%, banks

have accelerated their debts tightening. A new

real estate sell-off drove price downward which

was started when PVL (Petrol real estate JSC)’s

investor reduced apartment price by 35%, then

Private construction enterprise 1 decreased its

price by VND 5-7mil/m2 in VP3 Linh Dam and CT6

Xa La in Bemes Cau Buou.

Massive bankruptcy related to real estate: 2011

witnessed continuous bankruptcies of real estate.

The first to mention is Nguyen Thi Cuc ( Phu

Xuyen, Ha Noi) who used to be notorious for

borrowing VND 250bil (VND 10bil/month interest)

for investment around Ha Noi. Another is Bui Thi

Quyen and Ta Viet Quang (Phung, Dan Phuong,

Ha Noi) who initially borrowed VND 200bil with

interest up to VND 2,500/1,000,000/day. The case

of Nguyen Thi Dau once stirred Ha Dong district,

Ha Noi. Nguyen Thi Minh Tam and Nguyen Chi

Viet – director of Hai Ha real estate company in

Bac Ninh also borrowed VND 130bil on a high

interest for purchasing villas in Bac Ninh and Ha

Noi.

REAL ESTATE

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REAL ESTATE

Conflicts in advanced apartment blocks: 2011

marked a tough year for advanced apartment

segment with various sues. In the case of projects

under construction, investor disputed with

residents on progress, interest, etc, in the case of

projects already transferred, participants found it

hard to agree upon service fee. 4 most well-

known cases in 2011 include Keangnam

Landmark Tower for service fees, Golden

Westlake for general and private area, European

Vietnam foreign villa for high interest, Quoc

Cuong 1 for late transfer without any refunding.

FDI on real estate strongly plunged: FDI on

real estate in 2011 remarked 5 year lowest. While

2008 hit USD 23.6bil, 2009- USD 76.bil, 2010 –

USD 6.8bil, 11 month figure in 2011 was recorded

at only USD 464mil. This is due to financial

hardship encountered by foreign investors and

funds which restricted market extension but

completed projects in progress. Besides, taking

into account current issues such as liquidity,

price, real estate market showed no appealing to

investors.

Low income houses faced hard consumption:

Investors showed little excitement towards low

income houses projects while customers found

these unaffordable. At present, there are several

projects receiving registration such as Dang Xa,

Dai Mo and Sai Dong, however, with fainted

attention.

Main reasons include high price (VND 13mil/ m2),

intense payment, complicated profiles with

obligations on ownership, transfer time, approval.

M&A: In the concept of a negative market, merge

and acquisition among projects was proved

obvious. Analysts stated a strong upcoming

growth. Regardless of loans granted from banks,

there are considerable options for capital

supplementation on finding appropriate partners.

These include selling the whole project to a third

party, looking for capital contributors, selling

apartments in big amount, selling trade centre and

offices in terms of ground. Holding great land

resource, many investors can consider partial

selling for capital contribution.

Outstanding policies

Decision 11 on tightening real estate credit: In

02/24/2011, government issued Decision 11 and

on 03/01/2011, State bank governor issued

Instruction 01. Accordingly, banks tightened credit,

reduced outstanding loan on non – manufacturing

sector, especially real estate against 2010 (

outstanding loan on non – manufacturing

sector/total balance at maximum is 16%). This

tremendously affected real estate market as this is

main funding source for projects, leading to great

plunge in price and supply – demand imbalance.

Approving of Ha Noi’s general plan: On

07/27/2011, Prime Minister approved of General

Planning for Ha Noi 2030 and vision 2050.

Accordingly, national administrative – political

center will be moved to My Dinh and West Lake.

No change is made towards Departments at Ba

Vi…Also, central urban areas from belt IV to inner

parts are recognized as advanced political, cultural,

service, health and educational centre nationwide.

Besides, there are 5 satellite urban areas including

Hoa Lac, Son Tay, Xuan Mai, Phu Xuyen – Phu

Minh, Soc Son and eco areas. Specially, there are

green corridors between centre and satellites.

According to specialists’ estimation, USD 300 bil,

even 400 is needed to process this planning which

is about 4 year national GDP.

Categorizing real estate into non –

manufacturing sector: In Nov, SBV released

credit institutions from non – manufacturing sector

except for 4 real estate groups. Forwardingly,

Prime Minister issued Directive 2196 partially on

widening credit margin for real estate loans in

terms of construction of social houses, lending for

new houses for people in real needs… This

directive somehow lightened a way out for real

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estate firms and banks, however, it takes time to

evaluate effects market.

Rescuing real estate: A short while after SBV’s

issuance of Document 8844, Prime Minister

issued Directive 2196/CT-TTg on enhancing real

estate market management, clearly signaling

about loosening credit margin towards this sector.

Prime Minister required SBV to “ conduct,

coordinate with Ministry of Construction and local

authorities in revising, maintaining loans towards

projects to be completed and express adequate

capability to recall capital in 2012”.

REAL ESTATE

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1. Market overview

Appendix 1: Stock data 2011

Market scale HOSE HNX Upcom

Index 351.6 (-27.5%)

58.7(-48.6%)

33.8 (-25.3%)

- excluding BVH, VIC, MSN,VNM 203.9

Newly listed figure 305 393 131

- newly listed in December 30 29 32

Capitalization (VND bil) 454,563 88,131 22,731

% possessed by foreign investors 15.3% 9.2% 1.9%

P/E 7.90 7.64 _

P/B 1.69 0.99 _

- excluding BVH, VIC, MSN, VNM

P/E 6.26 _ _

P/B 1.31 _ _

(*) Data updated to 12/31/2011

Stock and money supply, demand in 2011

Dividends paid in cash (VND bil) 29,942

- December separately 2,715

Issuance for capital raise (VND bil) 15,061

- December separately 1,348

Stocks gained on additional issuance 2,988,119,396

- December separately 174,572,225

No of successfully bid stocks 166,310,911

Sector Change (+/- %)

P/E P/B Roon left

Cap rate

Technology -30.8% 3.4 0.9 71.0% 5.4%

Industry 31.2% 10.1 2.3 31.8% 10.9%

Oil -31.1% 6.1 0.7 75.2% 4.5%

Public service -12.9% 9.5 3.1 51.9% 47.5%

Consumption service -9.0% 6.6 1.2 44.3% 1.4%

Consumption goods -45.3% 7.7 0.6 78.8% 2.4%

Finance -39.1% 6.4 1.0 76.3% 4.7%

Fundamental materials -42.8% 7.8 0.9 78.9% 18.9%

Healthcare -19.6% 5.6 0.8 79.1% 1.6%

Closing 2011, all 3 indexes strongly

climbed down, significantly HNX –

Index with 50%. There were only 91

newly listed enterprises (33%

against 2010).

Excluding BVH, MSN, VIC and

VNM, VN-Index at 12/30/2011 was

recorded at 203.9, P/E and P/B on

HOSE hit 6.25 and 1.31.

Sector figure also favored downward

trend, averaging 30% of prior year.

Industry and Real estate &

construction remarked outstanding

decreases by 45.3 and 42.8%.

Consumption goods remained

upward trend with 3.2% as two highest

proportioned stocks (VNM and VCF)

strongly rose in 2011.

While dividends paid in cash reached

approximately VND 30 thousand bil,

gains on stock issuance only hit VND 15

thousand bil.

Accounting for 2.23bil newly listed shares

and shares through capital raise as well

as successfully bid figure, total stock

supply in 2011 was marked at VND

5.4bil.

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2. Stock price

HOSE

Code % rise Average trading volume

Code % fall Average trading volume

VCF (*) 82.0% 16,522 SBS -90.6% 100,815

VTF 59.9% 2,315 VES -90.1% 30,048

GIL 57.9% 25,521 KSA -89.3% 111,738

AGD 55.5% 17,725 HQC -87.8% 504,074

VNM 53.2% 77,704 BGM (*) -86.3% 149,375

MCP 47.1% 6,912 NVT -86.3% 257,905

LCM (*) 44.4% 44,636 VKP -83.0% 25,213

NSC 35.5% 6,186 STT (*) -83.0% 16,932

APC 30.6% 54,419 BAS -82.5% 13,347

PNJ 26.2% 127,493 KSH -81.1% 21,596

(*) Newly listed in 2011

HNX

Code % rise Average trading volume

Code % fall Average trading volume

SVN (*) 135.8% 12,791 SDU -87.8% 41,533

KTS 90.1% 968 SME -87.6% 86,367

CVN 63.1% 32,508 NHA -84.3% 16,320

HTB 62.7% 3,628 ORS -84.3% 186,339

FLC (*) 60.8% 67,055 V11 -84.0% 16,420

SDG 48.3% 2,143 SHN -83.8% 1,134,006

IDV 42.0% 820 SSS -83.8% 7,395

DNP 35.5% 19,372 APS -83.7% 91,536

CTB 34.9% 227 TIG -83.5% 83,348

DHT 28.9% 8,013 SJM -83.5% 16,594

(*)Newly listed in 2011

To last trading day on HOSE (12/31), VPL

(Vinpearl) experienced biggest rise by 91%.

However, due to its listing cancellation for

merging with VIC, VCF (Vinacafe Bien Hoa)

replaced with 82%.

Opposite trend recognized SBS of Sacombank

securities JSC with a 90.6% decrease. In

December, SBS’s price fluctuated around VND

3,000/share

VNM – biggest market cap stock in the whole

market (updated to 12/30/2011) – remained one

of strongest rise with 53.2

Similar to HOSE, HNX recorded its strongest

rise in 2011 with a newly listed enterprise –

SVN (Solavina) of 136% against its initial

level on 07/26. KTS (Kon Tum sugar) hit the

2nd with exceptional 266.7% separately in

December

30 shares showed an over 80% decrease

during the year. Many remained low liquidity

with averagely hundred shares/ session.

(**) Including Upcom, strongest rise and fall

recognized in 2011 is accounted to GDW

(Gia Dinh water JSC – rose by 305%) and

SGS (Sai Gon sea transport JSC – fell by

93.6%)

HOSE HNX

Blue: Index value; Red: Trading volume

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3. Foreign trading scale

Biggest buying/selling in 2011 (VND bil)

Code Floor Net

buying Code Floor

Net selling

VNM HSX 951.3 VIC HSX -1,819.5

FPT HSX 819.4 STB HSX -1,017.4

CTG HSX 577.0 CTD HSX -214.3

KDC HSX 404.4 HAG HSX -212.2

VCB HSX 354.0 CII HSX -122.1

PVD HSX 239.4 TTP HSX -86.5

PNJ HSX 194.5 SAM HSX -55.6

VCG HNX 165.8 HVG HSX -53.8

REE HSX 163.8 ITA HSX -48.1

ITC HSX 154.4 NTL HSX -44.7

MBB HSX 142.5 HSG HSX -40.6

PVS HNX 122.1 CSM HSX -38.4

SSI HSX 111.9 PPC HSX -35.4

DHG HSX 102.4 TDH HSX -33.4

VND HNX 98.1 ABT HSX -33.0

(*) đv: tỷ đồng

VNM, FPT and CTG located themselves as top 3

largest net buying in latter half of 2011 with VND

951.3bil, 819.4bil, 577bil respectively.

VIC incessantly remarked biggest net selling value

in 2011. STB unexpectedly experienced a VND

900bil net selling in quarter IV, forwarding exceeded

VIC to hit 2nd

position.

2011 witnessed 3 exceptional sessions on 2 floors with net

buying of 5 mil VND on 02/08 and 6.6mil VNM on 06/27 and

net selling of 13mil VIC and STB on 12/21.

In 4 year period, net buying and selling value in 2011

remained lowest with VND 1,811bil (65% of HSX) – 11.2%

against prior year.

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No

Project Investor Value Area Location Progress Description

1 Times City Vingroup VND

5,800

bil

364,500

m2

458 Minh Khai –

Hai Ba Trung – Ha

Noi

Infrastructure and

crude construction

The project includes 9 slots – 7 for houses and

supporting services; 2 for Vinmedicare international

hotel. Buildings are planned to be of 22-35 floors.

2 Vincom

Village

Vingroup VND

10,000

bil

183.5 ha Phuc Loi, Phuc

Dong, Viet Hung,

Gia Thuy, Long

Bien, HN

Villa transfer The project includes 1000 villas on 38.2ha, traffic 50ha,

trees and water areas 60ha, Vincom Centre trade

centre 45,000 m2, Vinmec2 hospital and offices,

apartments area,…

3 Mandarin

Garden

Golden Gain

Viet Nam

25,886

m2

Dong Nam, Tran

Duy Hung, Ha Noi

7th floor

construction

The project includes 4 apartment buildings of 25-29

floors with total 1008 luxury houses and trade centre

additionally,…

4 Dream City Viet Han VND

5,800bil

2,069.28

ha

Tam Nong, Phu

Tho

Construction area for trade centre, offices, houses is

52.31ha – 2.53%. Resident area is 341.66ha – 16.51%.

Green park area is 1,092.54ha – 52.97%,…

6 Son river Long Bien real

estate

company

VND

4,575

bil

117 ha Hoa Binh, Giang

Dien, Trang Bom,

Dong Nai

Infrastructure

construction

Construction area is 56.5ha including single villas,

adjacent apartments and dormitories. Public area is

9.89ha, 29.2ha is for traffic, 15.22ha for green park –

sport area, 6.19ha for river, lakes.

7 The Empire Thanh Do

Group

VND

10,000

51.5 ha Truong Sa street,

Hoa Hai ward, Ngu

Hanh Son district,

Infrastructure

construction.

Planned

The project includes 2 areas, district 1 lies on the seaside of Truong Sa street of 30ha of seaside villas, hotels, apartments,… district 2 of 21.5ha of street

Appendix 2: Outstanding real estate projects

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bil Da Nang completion in

2018.

houses, villas, hotels,…

Commencement was on 07/24/2011. As planned,

streets for walk, houses and infrastructure of district 2

will be completed in quarter 2/2013; villas in district 1

and basic foundation of villas in district 2 in quarter

2/2014; hotels and complex buildings in quarter 4/2016.

8 Phuoc An

urban area

HUD group VND

6,000

150 ha Nhon Trach, Dong

Nai

Under construction The project is located on two sides of Nhon Trach new

city’s traffic axis, with front side on street 1 of 53m wide,

adjacent to Administrative centre, 25km away from

HCM through 25C street. Housing area is 66ha with 512

single villas, 836 duplex villas, over 1000 adjacent ones.

Construction intensity 44%.

9 IJC

Commercia

l Town

Becamex IJC VND

450bil

43,923

m2

New city Binh

Duong

Deployment The project includes 300 street houses with 1

basement, 2 floors and upper yard. Each is on 125 m2 –

145 m2, constructing area 381.5 m2

.

10 Golden

Hills

Trung Nam

Group

USD

1.67bil

400ha Hoa Hiep Nam,

Hoa Hiep Bac, Hoa

Lien, Hoa Vang

villages, Lien Chieu

district, Da Nang

province

Traffic

infrastructure

progress

Traffic system in Golden Hills constitute 25.5% with

internal, inter, main and separate lanes of 7.5m; 11.5m;

13.5m; 15.5m; 30m; 33m wide respectively. Trung Nam

is currently accelerating construction of area A’s internal

lanes.

11 UNI Town Becamex -TDC VND

1,300

bil

54,503

m2

Center of Binh

Duong new urban

zone

Under construction There are 285 street houses with various areas: 105,

108, 110, 131 and 148 m2, opening at VND

4.8bil/apartment.

Disclaimer: The information herein is collected and edited by CafeF from public sources believed to be reliable, proved to be valuable for

investors. However, we take no charge in any risk exposed to investors on using this report.

Economic&Financial Report 2011 Cafef

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