Economic Outlookfiles.ctctcdn.com/24a597fa001/fc34eea2-3d29-4f38-9565-4cca9a53f… · U.S. GDP...
62
Economic Outlook September 2015 Economic Policy Division
Transcript of Economic Outlookfiles.ctctcdn.com/24a597fa001/fc34eea2-3d29-4f38-9565-4cca9a53f… · U.S. GDP...
Economic OutlookSeptember 2015Economic Policy Division
U.S. GDP Actual and PotentialQuarterly, Q1 1980 to Q4 2016
Trillion $2009
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Actual
Potential
Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office
Forecast
U.S. GDP: Estimates of Potential(Real $2013 dollars)
Comparing Recoveries
Trough Peak
GDP Growth in the first 3 years of recovery
Months from end of recession until we reached prior employment peak
Months from end of recession until GDP reached potential
Q2 1954 Q3 1957 4.0 13 2Q2 1958 Q2 1960 4.2 12 4Q1 1961 Q4 1969 5.8 10 10Q4 1970 Q4 1973 5.2 6 5Q1 1975 Q1 1980 4.5 9 13Q4 1982 Q3 1990 5.8 12 20Q1 1991 Q1 2001 3.2 23 25Q4 2001 Q4 2007 2.9 39 13Q2 2009 Q2 2015 2.3 59 NA
Comparing Recoveries II
(SAAR)
Trough Peak# of Quarters Real GDP Productivity
Real Total Compensation Income*
Q4 1949 Q2 1953 14 7.6 3.6 3.6 4.2Q2 1954 Q3 1957 13 4.0 2.2 3.6 3.0Q2 1958 Q2 1960 8 5.6 2.7 3.4 2.2Q1 1961 Q4 1969 35 4.9 3.0 2.4 3.7Q4 1970 Q4 1973 12 5.1 3.0 1.8 4.2Q1 1975 Q1 1980 20 4.3 1.7 1.0 2.2Q3 1980 Q3 1981 4 4.4 2.4 0.3 2.7Q4 1982 Q3 1990 31 4.3 2.1 1.0 2.7Q1 1991 Q1 2001 40 3.6 2.3 1.7 2.4Q4 2001 Q4 2007 24 2.8 2.5 0.9 1.9Q2 2009 Q2 2015 24 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.9
* Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita, BEA
Comparing Recoveries III
Job Growth During Recovery Periods
Trough PeakAve Job Growth
per MonthAve Nonfarm Employment Share
Oct 1949 (Q4) Jul 1953 (Q3) 169,000 47,667,000 0.35%May 1954 (Q2) Aug 1957 (Q3) 107,000 51,441,000 0.21%Apr 1958 (Q2) Apr 1960 (Q2) 158,000 52,902,000 0.30%Feb 1961 (Q1) Dec 1969 (Q4) 167,000 61,740,000 0.27%Nov 1970 (Q4) Nov 1973 (Q4) 208,000 73,805,000 0.28%Mar 1975 (Q1) Jan 1980 (Q1) 244,000 83,642,000 0.29%Jul 1980 (Q3) Jul 1981 (Q3) -173,000 90,641,000 -0.19%Nov 1982 (Q4) Jul 1990 (Q3) 229,000 100,272,000 0.23%Mar 1991(Q1) Mar 2001 (Q1) 201,000 119,615,000 0.17%Nov 2001 (Q4) Dec 2007 (Q4) 99,000 133,467,000 0.07%Jun 2009 (Q2) Jul 2015 (Q3) 152,000 134,662,000 0.11%
Presenter
Presentation Notes
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-10
-5
0
5
10
Percent Change, Annual Rate
Real GDP Outlook
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Percent Change, Annual Rate
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Personal Consumption Outlook
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Real Disposable per Capita Personal Income
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% Change Year to Year
Household Net Worth
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Trillion $
Household Wealth
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Household Balance Sheet
0102030405060708090
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total Assets
Nonfinancial Assets
Financial Assets
Trillion $
Household Assets
0
5
10
15
20
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Trillion $
Household Liabilities
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Domestic Bank Lending
2,000
2,300
2,600
2,900
3,200
3,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Billions $ Consumer Credit Outstanding
1,300
1,600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Billions $ Residential Real Estate Loans
600
900
1,200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Billions $ Consumer Revolving Loans
Consumer Confidence
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Real Business Fixed Investment
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Percent Change, Annual Rate
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
SA, 2007 = 100
Investment Drivers
Industrial Production
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Percent of Capacity
Capacity Utilization
11.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.9
2
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
SA
Inventory-to Sales-Ratio
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
SAAR $BilCorporate Profits
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
small
large
Percent Change Year to Year
C&I Loans at Commercial Banks
Domestic Bank Lending
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Business Confidence
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ISM Manufacturing Index
U.S. Trade
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2000$
Real Net Exports of Goods and Services
65
75
85
95
105
115
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Exchange Rate (Major Currencies/US$)
U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Labor Market
100
110
120
130
140
150
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Million
200
300
400
500
600
700
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Unemployment Rate U-6
Percent
Total Nonfarm Jobs
Initial Unemployment Claims
Unemployment Rate August 5.1%
100
110
120
130
140
150
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Million
Household Employment
62
64
66
68
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
SA, percent
Civilian Participation Rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Median Weeks Unemployed, SA
Duration of Unemployment
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Thousands Part-time for Economic Reasons
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Thousands
Marginally Attached
Discouraged Workers
Labor Market
Employment-Population Ratio
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Percent
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Consumer Price Index
PCE Price Level
Percent Change Year to Year
Inflation
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Percent
Interest Rate Spreads
Risk SpreadMoody's Seasoned Baa
Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent Yield Spread10-Year Treasury – 3 month Treasury
0
1
2
3
4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent
TED Spread3-Month LIBOR Minus
3-Month Treasury
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Jan2008
Apr. July Oct. Jan2009
Apr Jul Oct Jan2010
Apr Jul Oct Jan2011
Apr Jul Oct Jan2012
Apr Jul Oct Jan2013
Apr Jul Oct Jan2014
Apr Jul Oct Jan2015
Apr Jul
Billions $
Excess Federal Reserve Assets Money Supply (M1)
Fed Policy
Bank Assets and Liabilities
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Percent of GDP
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Billions $
Deficit to GDP
CBO’s Baseline Deficit(August 2015)
Budget Deficit
0102030405060708090
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Percent of GDP
Government Baseline Outside Debt(August 2015)
Debt to GDP
Debt
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Billions $
Government Gross Debt(August 2015)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Billions $
Gross Debt to GDP
Gross Debt
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Percent of GDP
Government Revenues and Outlays(Percent of GDP)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP)
Forecast
Source: CBO Baseline (August 2015)
September 30, 2015
Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook
Terry L. Clower, Ph.D.Director, Center for Regional Analysis
School of Policy, Government & International AffairsGeorge Mason University
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Washington MSA Coincident Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-MonthMoving Average
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA, 2002-2015
-80-60-40-20
020406080
100
200220052008
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Federal GovernmentWashington MSA
-20-15-10-505
1015202530
200220052008M
arJunSepD
ecM
arJunSepD
ecM
arJunSepD
ecM
arJunSepD
ecM
arJunSepD
ecM
arJunSepD
ecM
arJun
(000s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jul-15 Total: 365.2
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Federal Procurement in theWashington Metro Area, FY 1980-2014
$ Billions
TOTAL = $1,164.9 Billion
Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov
79.8
69.171.2
76.3
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Federal Procurement Outlays declined $13.3 billion or 16.1% between FY2010 and FY2013. Did see a slight uptick in FY2014, but it is unclear if that signifies we are coming off a low, or if we are bouncing along the bottom.
Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA
-20-15-10-505
1015202530
200220052008M
arJunSepD
ecM
arJunSepD
ecM
arJunSepD
ecM
arJunSepD
ecM
arJunSepD
ecM
arJunSepD
ecM
arJun
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Jul-15 Total: 734.8Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private SectorThe Great Recession and Recovery
-5
-7
-10
-12
-10
-8
-49
-34
-23
0
-24
-100 -75 -50 -25 0
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7
6
20
26
79
34
59
69
0 25 50 75 100
Total -181 Total 299Aug 2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-Jul 2015
Job Change by SectorJul 2014 – Jul 2015Washington MSA
30
-10
-24
28
59
241
21
(20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0
Transp. & Util.Wlse Trade
ManufacturingInformation
FinancialOther Services
ConstructionLeisure & Hosp.
Retail TradeState & Local Govt
Educ & Health SvcsFederal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs(000s) Total = 73,800
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: Jul 2014 – Jul 2015
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%
Washington +2.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
7.0 – DC5.3 – U.S.4.8 – SMD4.6 – MSA3.8 - NVA
Unemployment Rates in the WMSABy Sub-State Area, 2008-2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Median House Sales PriceWashington MSA
$388.2KAug 2015
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s)
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Source: RBI excel sheets (current data)
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-MonthMoving Average
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-4
-2
0
2
4%
Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: August 2015
U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2020
(Annual % Change)
Washington
U.S.
Thank You
cra.gmu.edu
Presentation for the Baltimore Washington Corridor ChamberSeptember 30, 2015
Daraius Irani, Ph.D.Chief Economist, RESI
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
Annu
al R
ate
of C
hang
e
Billi
ons o
f Dol
lars
Real Gross Domestic ProductSeasonally Adjusted, Chained Dollars (2004Q2 to 2015Q2)
Recession US GDP % Change© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 9/11 2015Q2: annual growth 2.66%, $16,324.3 billion ($16.3 trillion) Contributions to percent change in RGDP by GDP component for 2015Q2 Personal consumption expenditures 2.11 Gross private domestic investment 0.88 Net exports of goods and services 0.23 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 0.47
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Com
poun
d An
nual
Rat
e of
Cha
nge
Billi
ons o
f 200
09 C
hain
ed D
olla
rs
U.S. Personal Consumption ExpendituresSeasonally Adjusted 2004Q2 to 2015Q2
Recession PCE Compound Annual Rate of Change© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 9/11 Minimum during recession: 2009Q2 (-1.8%, $9,806.4 billion) Current: 2015Q2 (3.1%, $11,166.4 billion) https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PCECC96/downloaddata
0
20
40
60
80
100
Inde
x Va
lue
Consumer Sentiment IndexMonthly (January 2004 to September 2015)
Recession Consumer Sentiment Base Year (1966 = 100)© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research
Nov. 2008-55.3
Sept. 2015-85.7
Sources: University of Michigan, Thomson Reuters
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 9/11/15 Index: 1966=100
54.0
109.3
71.5
65.5
69.8
18
8
8
16
6
2007 to 2009
2001
1990 to 1991
1981 to 1982
1980
Average Consumer Sentimentin Past Recessions
And length of recessions (1980 to 2007)
Length of recession (months) Consumer Sentiment
Sources: University of Michigan, Thomson Reuters© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Number of Job Openings and Unemployed Workers
Seasonally Adjusted (January 2001 to July 2015)
Job Openings Unemployment Level
Unemployment Level
Job Openings Level
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research
Thou
sand
s of W
orke
rs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 9/11/15 July 2015: Unemployment: 8,266,000 Job openings: 5,753,000 Job openings: total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted, total US
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
132,000
134,000
136,000
138,000
140,000
142,000
144,000
146,000
148,000
150,000
Thou
sand
s of W
orke
rs
National EmploymentJan. 2005-Aug. 2015
Nov. 2007:146.6
million
Dec. 2009:138.0
million
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 9/15/15 August 2015: 149,036
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Perc
ent o
f Lab
or F
orce
National Rate of Unemployment and Underemployment
Seasonally Adjusted (2007 to August 2015)
Recession Underemployed Unemployed© Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 9/15/15 Underemployment down slightly in 2014; has stayed below 6% in 2015 Current average duration of unemployment is 28.4 weeks as of August 2015; median duration is 12.1 weeks Nationally, 4,469,000 unemployed for less than 15 weeks; 3,437,000 unemployed for 15 weeks or more Average duration of unemployment at beginning of recession was 16.6 weeks Average duration of unemployment peaked at 40.6 weeks in July 2011 Unemployment + underemployment falling; currently at 10.3% for August 2015; max was in March/April 2010 at 17.1% (use table a-15 from BLS Employment Situation)
66.1%
83.6%
29.7%
63.3%
83.3%
34.5%
54.9%
81.4%
40.5%
49.6%
81.0%
41.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
16 to 24 25 to 54 55 and Older
Labo
r For
ce P
artic
ipat
ion
Rate
Labor Force Participation Rateby Age Group
(1992 to 2022)
1992 2002 2012 2022 (Projected)© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Presenter
Presentation Notes
4/9/15: no updated data to update slide Labor force is projected to grow 0.5% during 2012-2022, compared with 0.7% growth in 2002-2012. Workers 55+ will make up over 25% of labor force by 2022. Overall participation expected to decline from 63.7 in 2012 to 61.6 in 2022 1992 labor force=128,105; 2012=154,975; 2022 (projected)=163,450 In 4/5 occupations, replacement needs will exceed new growth
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research
-1,518,667
-2,347,332
-531,991
3,299,024
2,565,475
1,148,055
-3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000
Low Wage
Mid Wage
High Wage
National Employment QualityDuring and After Recession, Private Sector
Pre-recession Post-recession
Presenter
Presentation Notes
*Updated 6/11/15* Overall, 121 million employed full-time, almost 28 million employed part-time Part-time share: Current: 18.6%, 2015Q2; Min: 16.9%, 2007Q4 Max: 20.0%, 2010Q1 Pre-recession: Jan 2008-Dec 2010 Post-recession: Dec 2010-Sep 2014 Low wage: <$17.33 Mid wage: $17.34<x<$26.15 High wage: >$26.16 Total lost during recession: 4,397,990 Total gained after recession: 7,012,554 (Q4 data are now available 9/16) for later: avg wage of jobs created
Mid-Atlantic Region Unemployment RankingsAugust Unemployment Rates, Seasonally Adjusted
© Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
State 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Maryland 7.2 6.9 6.4 5.7 5.1
Pennsylvania 8.0 7.8 6.9 5.4 5.4
Virginia 6.5 5.9 5.5 5.0 4.5
Delaware 7.4 7.3 6.5 5.7 4.9
DC 10.4 8.7 8.5 7.8 6.8
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 9/18/15 US rate, 8/15: 5.1 percent, seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.2% 4.1%3.9%
3.5%
4.4%
7.1%7.6%
7.1%6.9%
6.5%
5.8%
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
Maryland Historic Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted (2004 to 2014)
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 9/15/15 Annual average unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3,122
-59,058
8,932
42,300
19,884
11,066
Low Wage
Mid Wage
High Wage
Maryland Employment Growth by WageDuring and After Recession (Private Sector)
Post-recession Pre-recession
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 5/1/15: data through 2014 Q3 Unemployment decreased, but SNAP use increased: more low-wage jobs Another indicator of economic hardship is SNAP (food stamp) enrollment, which is higher in all states in 2014 than it was in 2009, despite decreases in the unemployment rate. Maryland: 11.6 percent of households using SNAP in 2014; 8 percent SNAP in 2010 with 8 percent unemployment
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Maryland DLLR, RESI
14.8
9
9
8.2
6
5.8
3
0
-0.6
-1.8
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Education and Health Services
Government
Professional and Business Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Financial Activities
Retail Trade
Information
Manufacturing
Change in Employment in MarylandSeasonally Adjusted, In Thousands, Aug. 2014-2015
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 9/18/15 From DLLR—August numbers http://www.dllr.state.md.us/lmi/ces/
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
Inde
x Va
lue
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index
Monthly (Jan. 2004 to June 2015)
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
July ‘06184.6
June ‘15173.83
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 9/15/15
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Aver
age
Pric
e
Uni
ts S
old
Maryland Home Prices vs. SalesJan. 2008-Aug. 2015
Units Sold Average Price
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Updated 9/16/15 August 2015: $317,847 average price; 7,014 units sold ------ January 2012: active inventory=27,729; 9 month average. December 2012: active inventory=22,047; 5 month average January 2013: active inventory =21,315; 6.3 month average. December 2013: active inventory=22,047; 5 month average January 2014: active inventory=22,828; 6.6 month average. December 2014, active inventory=26,334 4.5 month average. January 2015: active inventory=25,506; 6.6 month average. August 2015: active inventory=30,751; 4.5 months of inventory ------- *Data from 2014 EOC Apartment vacancy rate: 8.6%, a 9-year low Rental market by age of renter: 25-34: 27.3% 35-44: 21.5% Rent has increased 3.4% from 2007-2012 Renters on average allocate 32.9% of income toward housing costs From 2014 EOC notes Maryland’s foreclosure rate, unlike the national rate, has seen year-over-year increases. According to the Department of Housing and Community Development, the trend is due to a backlog of delinquent loans: many foreclosures were suspended during the peak of the housing crisis because of state legislation that prolonged the foreclosure process (see below); many of the foreclosures occurring now were simply delayed from earlier.
2.1%
-0.6%
-2.6%
-1.1%
1.8%2.0% 2.0%
0.5% 0.5%0.3% 0.3%
2,700,000
2,750,000
2,800,000
2,850,000
2,900,000
2,950,000
3,000,000
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tota
l Non
farm
Em
ploy
men
t
Perc
ent C
hang
e
RESI Employment OutlookTotal Nonfarm Employment Growth (2007 to 2017)
Percent Change Employment
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research
actual projections
Source: RESI
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI
0.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.5%
0.7%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%
1.9%1.9%
2.2%2.4%
2.6%2.9%3.0%
7.6%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
Information
Other Services, except Public Administration
Utilities
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Manufacturing
Transportation and Warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Finance and Insurance
Retail Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
Educational Services
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Administrative and Waste Management Services
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Mining
Construction
Projected Employment Growth by Sector2014 to 2015
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Construction sector projected to have the largest % growth
7.4%
5.6%
6.5%
4.5%
3.7%
-0.3%
2.6%
5.7%
3.5%
2.4%
3.4%
4.8%
5.7% 5.6%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Perc
ent G
row
th
Personal Income GrowthHistorical and Projected Annual Change (2004 to 2017)
© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI
actual projections
Economic Impact Analysis | Policy Analysis | Fiscal Impact Analysis | SurveyDevelopment and Analysis | Economic Forecasting | Market Feasibility Analysis |Workforce and Commuter Analysis | Tax Policy Solutions | Economic DevelopmentPlanning & Strategy | Cost Benefit Analysis | Environmental Policy Analysis |Stakeholder and Community Engagement | Zoning and Land Use Analysis | Real EstateAnalysis | Community Impact Analysis | Economic Impact Analysis | Policy Analysis |Fiscal Impact Analysis | Survey Development and Analysis | Economic Forecasting |Market Feasibility Analysis | Workforce and Commuter Analysis | Tax Policy Solutions |Economic Development Planning & Strategy | Cost Benefit Analysis | EnvironmentalPolicy Analysis | Stakeholder and Community Engagement | Zoning and Land UseAnalysis | Real Estate Analysis | Community Impact Analysis | Economic ImpactAnalysis | Policy Analysis | Fiscal Impact Analysis | Survey Development and Analysis |Economic Forecasting | Market Feasibility Analysis | Workforce and Commuter Analysis| Tax Policy Solutions | Economic Development Planning & Strategy | Cost BenefitAnalysis | Environmental Policy Analysis | Stakeholder and Community Engagement |Zoning and Land Use Analysis | Real Estate Analysis | Community Impact Analysis |Economic Impact Analysis | Policy Analysis | Fiscal Impact Analysis | SurveyDevelopment and Analysis | Economic Forecasting | Market Feasibility Analysis |Workforce and Commuter Analysis | Tax Policy Solutions | Economic DevelopmentPlanning & Strategy | Cost Benefit Analysis | Environmental Policy Analysis |Stakeholder and Community Engagement | Zoning and Land Use Analysis | Real EstateAnalysis | Community Impact Analysis | Economic Impact Analysis | Policy Analysis |Fiscal Impact Analysis | Survey Development and Analysis | Economic Forecasting |Market Feasibility Analysis | Workforce and Commuter Analysis | Tax Policy Solutions |Economic Development Planning & Strategy | Cost Benefit Analysis | Environmental© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research
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