8/25/2017 © 2017 CareerBuilder

Economic UpdateAugust 2017

Derek Harvey

Senior Sales Executive – Enterprise Sales

2nd Qtr. GDP: +2.6% (Advanced Estimate)

SUMMARY & GDP

Sources: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis

The Numbers: July Jobs Report (Wall Street Journal)

209,000: The economy created 209,000 jobs in July, well above this year’s average monthly gain of

184,000. It added 231,000 jobs in June. Job growth this year is just a touch below last year’s average

monthly increase of 187,000. The takeaway: The labor market’s long expansion is showing no signs

of exhaustion. There’s still room to run.

4.3%: The jobless rate fell by a tenth of percentage point to 4.3%, matching May as the lowest level

of unemployment in 16 years. It declined despite an expansion in the labor force. That suggests the

growing labor market is slowly drawing more Americans off the sidelines and into the job search,

and that employers are hiring many of them. The drop could also nudge the Federal Reserve closer

to raising interest rates. Unemployment is already below the Fed’s projection for long-run

joblessness of between 4.5% and 4.8%.

2.5%: The average hourly wage for private-sector workers grew 2.5% in July. That’s a modest pace

historically, but it looks better when considering inflation is so low. Real wages are growing at a solid

pace. Over the month, average hourly wages grew 9 cents on average, or 0.34%.

62.9%: The share of Americans holding jobs or actively looking for work rose a tenth of a percentage

point last month to 62.9%. That’s very slight progress. Labor-force participation is still depressed

overall, and it’s only increased a tenth of percentage point over the past year despite the strong

hiring.

8.6%: A measure underemployment—one that takes into account jobless workers, reluctant part-

time workers and Americans too discouraged to look for work—remained at 8.6%. That’s two tenths

of percentage point higher than May’s level, though it’s down more than a point from the prior year.

2015 2016 2017

Components of GDP 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2ndConsumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

1.80% 1.23% 2.57% 1.92% 1.99% 1.32% 1.93%

Business (Gross Private Domestic Investment)

-1.08% -0.68% -0.45% 0.40% 1.34% -0.20% 0.34%

Net Exports (Exports-Imports) -0.28% -0.28% 0.28% 0.36% -1.61% 0.22% 0.18%

Government 0.05% 0.32% -0.16% 0.09% 0.03% -0.11% 0.12%

Total GDP 0.49% 0.59% 2.24% 2.77% 1.75% 1.23% 2.57%

*Inventories -0.68% -0.64% -0.67% 0.16% 1.06% -1.46% -0.02%

© 2015 CareerBuilder3

Unemployment Rate: 4.3% 0.1%

Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment

Temp EmploymentTemporary help services Added 14,700 jobs.

Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important?“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth.”American Staffing Association

US Employment SituationTemp Penetration Rate: 2.07% unchanged Job Loss/Gain: +209,000 Jobs

I

Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association

Nonfarm Payroll –Job Growth Details

Jobs Added/Lost

Private Sector 205,000

Government Sector 4,000

Total 209,000

Mar Apr May June July2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4%

Job Gains Change from

Previous Month

Leisure and Hospitality 62,000

Profesional & Business Services 49,000

Manufacturing 16,000

Financial Activities 6,000

Construction 6,000

Government 4,000

Retail Trade 900

Education & Health Services 54,000

- Healthcare 39,400

- Social Assistance 5,600

- Education 9,800

© 2017 CareerBuilder

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GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

Getting PaidWages, Change from a year earlier

Projections, Trends & Wages

Source: Wall Street JournalPlease note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report,

Unemployment Rate ProjectionsSurvey of Economist (Wall Street Journal)

Out of Work (Alternative Measures of Unemployment)Alternate measures of the unemployment and under employment rate