Economic Trends May 2013
Transcript of Economic Trends May 2013
Annualized Quarterly Growth in Real GDP
4.0
%
1.9
%
1.2
% 3
.1%
0
.4%
2
.5%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2000q1 2001q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1 2013q1
Darker Bars Represent National Recessions.
MS University Research Center, IHL 2 May 2013
The up-down-up pattern is largely due to technical reasons (Inventory correction, defense spending, Hurricane Sandy)
US Jobs Added (Subtracted) By Month
MS University Research Center, IHL 3
(1,000,000)
(800,000)
(600,000)
(400,000)
(200,000)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 2013
Average Monthly Gain in 2013 is 195,750.
US Nonfarm Employment
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
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May 2013 MS University Research Center, IHL 4
Peak-to-trough loss 8.8 million jobs or 6.4%. Gains since trough 5.7 million jobs. We remain 2.2% below peak.
Institute For Supply Management Indices
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
ISM
Ind
ices
: ab
ove
50
is e
xpan
din
g
Manufacturing Index Nonmanufacturing Index
MS University Research Center, IHL 5 May 2013
An ISM Index above 50 says the industry is expanding. Below 50 indicates a contraction.
Both series have declined.
Real US Retail Sales Adjusted for Inflation
$280,000
$290,000
$300,000
$310,000
$320,000
$330,000
$340,000
$350,000
Mo
nth
ly S
ale
s M
illi
on
s o
f 2
00
4 $
MS University Research Center, IHL 6 May 2013
Retail sales remain relatively modest. We are only just now to the pre-recession level of sales. Recent improvement was fueled by
higher gasoline prices and auto sales.
US Light Vehicle Sales
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
23.0
Mill
ion
s o
f U
nit
s, S
AA
R
MS University Research Center, IHL 7 May 2013
Light vehicle sales have been a bright spot in the economy with average sales
of 14.4 million units in 2012. April marked the first time since October 2012
the level fell below 15 million units.
Weekly U.S. Regular Retail Gasoline Prices Dollars Per Gallon
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
May 2013 MS University Research Center, IHL 8
Because of limited incomes, high gasoline prices hit Mississippians especially hard and have a dampening
effect on discretionary spending.
US Consumer Sentiment Historically Low
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0Ja
n-9
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-91
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-93
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-94
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-95
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-96
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-99
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-00
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-11
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-12
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-13
Un
iver
sity
of
Mic
hig
an In
dex
, 19
66
= 1
00
MS University Research Center, IHL 9 May 2013
National Federation of Independent Businesses Optimism Index
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
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12
Jan
-13
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
NFI
B O
pti
mis
m In
dex
, 19
86
=10
0
MS University Research Center, IHL 10 May 2013
The Index plummeted in November and while it has
improved in 2013, it remains relatively weak historically.
Year-Over-Year Growth in Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments
by Quarter
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Mar
-60
Mar
-62
Mar
-64
Mar
-66
Mar
-68
Mar
-70
Mar
-72
Mar
-74
Mar
-76
Mar
-78
Mar
-80
Mar
-82
Mar
-84
Mar
-86
Mar
-88
Mar
-90
Mar
-92
Mar
-94
Mar
-96
Mar
-98
Mar
-00
Mar
-02
Mar
-04
Mar
-06
Mar
-08
Mar
-10
Mar
-12
May 2013 MS University Research Center, IHL 11
Gray Areas Represent National Recessions.
Declines are characteristic of recessions. Growth trended downward in 2011 and early 2012, but did
not go negative. Growth improved in late 2012.
96
98
100
102
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106
108
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Ind
ex 2
00
4=
100
MS Index of Coincident Indicators
12 MS University Research Center, IHL May 2013
The MSCI has risen for 9 consecutive months. But the
momentum has softened in 2013.
The Mississippi Index of Coincident Indicators reflects economic conditions existing in a given month. The index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and re-indexed to 2004. The Index is based on changes in nonfarm employment, the unemployment rate, average manufacturing workweek length and wage and salary disbursements.
Regional Comparison March Coincident Index as Percentage of Pre-recession Peak
93.4%
96.5%
91.2%
97.4% 98.1%
99.7% 98.9%
98.0% 99.0%
95.5%
101.9%
107.4%
103.4%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
105.0%
110.0%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN TX US
May 2013 MS University Research Center, IHL 13
MS Index of Leading Indicators
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Ind
ex 2
00
4=
100
14 MS University Research Center, IHL
The Index shows a softening of growth during the first quarter.
May 2013
The Mississippi Index of Leading Indicators reflects economic conditions expected for the coming months. The index is constructed by the University Research Center and indexed to 2004. There are 8 components of the Index: MS Initial Unemployment Claims; MS Income Tax Withholdings; MS Value of Residential Building Permits; MS MFG Employment Intensity Index, MS Diesel Fuel Consumption Index; ISM Index of US MFG Activity; US Consumer Expectations Index and US Retail Sales.
MS Nonfarm Employment
800
850
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1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
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May 2013 MS University Research Center, IHL 15
Jobs have been slow to return to Mississippi following the “Great Recession”.
Growth began to improve in late 2012.
1,162.1
May 00
1,110.9
Jun 03
1,161.9
Feb 08
1,116.6
Mar 13
Employment Index December 2007 = 100
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
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US MS
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MS Employment Trends By Major Industry
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Construction MFG Trade, Trans and UtlitiesProfessional Services Education and Health Services Leisure and HospitalityGovernment
May 2013 MS University Research Center, IHL 17
MS Real Income Tax Withholdings Six Month Moving Monthly Average Growth Over Prior Year
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
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CY 2011 -0.7% CY 2012 3.2%
CY 2013 To Date -1.6%.
Year-Over-Year Growth in MS Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
May 2013 MS University Research Center, IHL 19
Growth has slowed since early 2011, but remains positive.
MS Diesel Fuel Consumption Index Six Month Moving Monthly Average Growth Over Prior Year
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
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MS Residential Building Permits Three Month Moving Average Number of Units
20
220
420
620
820
1020
1220
1420
1620
1820
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Permits remain relatively weak.
MS Construction Employment
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
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65.0
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-00
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May 2013 MS University Research Center, IHL 22
MS construction employment remains relatively weak
MS Gaming Revenue Three Month Moving Average
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lio
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rs
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MS Unemployment Claims Three Month Moving Average
0
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Initial Claims Continued Claims
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