Economic Principles & Problems of Population Growth

Derric B. Jacobs

ECON539: Public Policy Analysis

Winter 2008

International Policy Questions:

• Should The International Community be Concerned about global population growth?

• What are the problems and issues associated with global population growth?

• What should the international community do about global population growth?

National Policy Questions:

• Should a nation be concerned with rapid population growth within and abroad?

• What is the traditional view of population growth from an economic position?

• How dose a nation experiencing rapid growth coupe and what can they do?

Background

• Thomas Malthus:– 1766- 1834

– Demographer and Political Economist

– Essay on Principles of Population (1796).

– Populations would grow past their resources.

Jared DiamondCollapse, How Societies Choose to

Fail or Succeed (2006)• Historical perspectives on social collapses and

current social conflicts.

• Causations are underlined in population growth and interactions with the environment and international relations.– Historical: Mayans and Easter Island– Current: Rwanda and Cambodia– Future: China, India, and the U.S.?

World Populations and Consumptive Behaviors

• World population is at more than 6.5 Billion and doubled between 1959 & 1999.

• Projection by 2050 is more than 9 Billion.

• Most consumptive nation is the U.S. with China and India following.

Neo-Classical Economic Perspectives on Population Growth

• Population growth has a positive relationship with economic growth and the maintenance of a healthy economy.

• Most prevalent since the 1980’s with shifts in international policies in addressing population growth.

The World Bank

• Prior to 1981:– President: Robert McNamara

– “…after thermonuclear war, rapid population growth was perhaps the perhaps the greatest threat to mankind.”

• After his retirement, economist dominated institution changed thought and policy toward population growth.

• Current trend is in a re-evaluation of population growth factors and policy- 2007 publication of Population Issues in the 21st Century.

The U.S. and Aid

• Currently the U.S. invests in aid at a rate of less than 3% which is equal to 1/25,000 of GDP.

• Current ideological trends in the Fed. Government are hostile to family planning in both national policy and international (Grant, 2000).

Population Reference Bureau Study 1975- 2004 (2007)

• Study finds that population growth rates and economic growth in GDP are negatively correlated.

Problems for the International Community

• Many of the problems associated with population growth are not contained within the boarders of a select nation.– Pollution and Waste– Oceanic Fish Catch– Infectious Disease – Conflicts– Migration

Problems for Nations

• Nations compile problems associated with population growth from other nations as well as their own.– Conflict – Freshwater– Grain production & meat

production– Biodiversity Loss– Energy

– Oceanic Fish Catch– Infectious Disease– Loss of cropland &

Forests– Housing & Urbanization– Jobs– Natural resources– Education & Income

Migration

• Migration is a reflection of low economic development and an individuals seeking for better opportunity and livelihood.

• Many less developed nations encourage emigration to deal with their own growth.

• Many migrants are the more educated and those that can afford to migrate resulting in net loss of educated and skilled citizens and resulting in a growth in the destination resulting in an increase in competition.

What Can Nations Do?

• Advanced economic nations can help developing nations with technologies and resources which include healthcare and health education as well as education for skills and employment.

• Developing nations can request for funds and resources from the international community.

• Discourage the migration of skilled and educated citizens to developed nations

Population Reference Bureau (2007)

• Study finds that increased fertility rates and education are negatively correlated.

Population Reference Bureau

• Study finds that increased fertility rates increase the percentage of citizens living in poverty.

Piecing it Together

• If investment in education for skilled workers decreases poverty, and a decrease in poverty decreases fertility rates and decreased fertility rates increases the likelihood of increases in education, and we are right back to where we started.

Statement by the UN: Population, Environment and Poverty Eradication

for Sustainable Developmet (2002)

• The condition of women and girls, wherever they lack a secure base, whether in education, information, health, reproductive rights, equity and resources are of first concern. Empowering women as full partners in sustainable development is perhaps the surest strategy to combat poverty; environmental degradation; secure democracy; and find lasting harmony in the global human condition. This must start with providing choices, including those of environmental protection and family size.

Conclusion

• Global and national population growths effect us all.• Without aid from more economically advanced

nations and the international community, the problems associated with population growth will continue

• The international and national policies toward population growth must be adjusted.

• The most significant changes needed are social and political, the need to increase open dialogue and further research is pertinent.